Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

在线信息搜索对旅游者感知形象及决策的影响研究

本文基于目的地形象理论,利用实验、出声思维、访谈等多种方法,结合词频统计、同位素示踪等分析手段解析了在线信息搜索对于旅游者感知形象演化及目的地选择决策的影响。研究发现:潜在旅游者持有的目的地原生形象具有集中性。随着外部信息搜索的进行,来自DMO控制型信息源的信息加强了这种印象并形成引致形象的热门词部分,依此旅游者对意识域中众多可选目的地进行筛选并形成考虑域。这一过程构成"广泛信息搜索路径"。而对非DMO控制型信息源的信息摄取则使引致形象演化出长尾,这些形象的细节性信息促使旅游者做出具体决策,此即为"精细信息搜索路径"。旅游者的目的地选择决策过程即是在不断重复这两条路径,直至做出最终选择。     

国内游客行前信息搜索与目的地满意度评价研究——以黄山风景区为例

行前信息搜索是游客旅游决策过程的首要步骤之一,而信息则会进一步影响游客的系列消费行为及其满意度评价。本文在文献回顾的基础上,以黄山风景区为例构建了国内游客行前信息搜索测量量表和目的地游客满意度评价测量量表,并通过因子分析萃取出了上述量表的因子结构,通过独立样本T检验和事后多重比较法检验了游客行前信息搜索行为的组间差异、检验了游客对目的地满意度评价的组间差异。典型相关分析则发现,"信息搜索的媒体导向"、"深入性信息"、"信息搜索的经验与中介导向"和"保健性信息"等国内游客行前信息搜索因子与目的地游客满意度评价因子存在正相关关系,但游客对"深入性信息"、"信息搜索的媒体导向"的关注程度较为有限。基于上述检验与发现,文章提出了黄山风景区提高游客满意度的若干举措。     

信息过载情境下旅游者目的地选择决策研究——热门形象与长尾形象的差异化作用分析

借助网络,旅游者能够获得丰富的目的地属性信息,形成的引致形象更为丰满。本文采用情境实验法,检验了信息过载情境下引致形象发生的结构性变化对旅游者目的地选择决策的影响。研究发现：①属性信息过载主要表现为旅游者对目的地长尾形象信息的选择性记忆,而目的地热门形象仍能被普遍记住;②在旅游者目的地选择决策过程中,目的地的热门形象依旧起着决定性作用,即USP依然是有效的营销策略;③在网络信息环境中新生成的引致形象长尾部分对旅游者决策的影响受到引致形象热门部分的调节,即引致形象长尾只有在特定的条件下才对旅游者决策有所影响。该研究结论有助于深化旅游者目的地选择决策理论、指导DMO目的地营销工作的开展。     

旅游目的地形象认知过程——基于扎根理论的探索性研究

在对旅游目的地形象作为系统整体进行认识的基础上,以网络游记文本为数据来源,采用扎根理论的方法探索旅游目的地形象要素的认知过程,建立旅游目的地形象要素认知过程模型,采用统计方法对旅游目的地形象要素认知过程的维度差异进行研究。结果发现,旅游目的地形象要素的认知过程包括信息获取、认知加工和要素变化等3个过程。其中,信息获取过程是旅游目的地形象要素认知过程的基础环节,包括感官体验、人际互动和信息搜寻等3种获取方式;认知加工过程是形象要素认知过程的核心环节,包括对比和聚类等2种方式;形象要素变化过程是认知过程的最后阶段,包括强化、调整和新建等3种变化方式。旅游目的地形象不同维度的形象要素认知过程中,信息获取方式和变化方式存在维度差异,认知加工方式不存在明显维度差异。     

Worker Endowments and the Effects of Institutions on Earnings Realization: A Cross-National Comparison

In this study we investigate how differential institutions, and their observance within regional labor markets, impact potential earnings realization. We investigate institutional linkages to labor market outcomes by means of cross-nation comparisons between the United States and the Netherlands. In this regard, better job-matching (information) programs, higher relative unemployment benefits and minimum wages, and a greater prevalence of both trade unionism and collective bargaining likely work to the favor of Dutch workers, and in turnaugment their reservation wages during job search. The predictable outcome of higher earnings realization among Dutch workers is tested econometrically by frontier estimation.     

Disaggregate Migration Behavior and the Volume of Interregional Migration

Nested multinomial logit models are used to investigate migration behavior during the 1971–74 period for a large sample of the population of Ecuador. The nested form of the model makes it possible to test hypotheses about the importance of destination characteristics in conditioning the odds for out-migration. Our empirical results indicate that the odds for migration from each origin are conditioned by the expected utilities of the available set of destinations, as well as characteristics of the origins and the personal characteristics of potential migrants. The association between destination characteristics and the frequency of out-migration allows the total volumes of migration to be adjusted to interregional differences in place-specific utilities.     

A multi-stakeholder examination of destination image: Nanluoguxiang heritage street,Beijing, China

ABSTRACT

Perceived destination image is rarely examined through the gaze of stakeholders other than visitors, in particular residents and tourism business operators. This hinders the comprehensive understanding of destination image and limits its practical implications for destination marketing and management. Therefore, this study proposes a multi-stakeholder approach to image evaluation to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the destination image and better inform destination planning and management. Taking Nanluoguxiang hutong tourism site in Beijing as an example, the image perceptions of residents, on-site business operators, and domestic and international tourists are compared. Questionnaire surveys with both types of tourists and semi-structured interviews with residents and business operators are the main research methods. Major between group differences are identified in the evaluation of the authenticity of this Beijing hutong area, its representation of traditional Beijing culture and whether or not it is a place in which to relax. Results demonstrate that visitors, residents and business operators share similar cognitive images of Nanluoguxiang as a traditional historical street and a special business street with Beijing character. However, the historical and cultural values of Nanluoguxiang are undervalued. Moreover, distinct differences exist between the actual motivations for visiting held by domestic and international tourists and their motivations as perceived by residents and business operators. Suggestions are made to better meet the expectations and desires of all stakeholder groups through the provision of participatory programmes and activities to enrich the visitor experience of hutongs and the hutong lifestyle while maintaining a boundary between tourists and residents’ personal space to reduce unnecessary interruptions to residents’ daily life.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

ELASTICITIES OF CONSTRAINED GRAVITY MODELS*

ABSTRACT Doubly constrained gravity models require a balancing procedure to make estimated origin and destination totals consistent. We show through a series of examples that not just the magnitudes but even the signs of derivatives and elasticities of gravity model flows depend on the specific balancing procedure used. Hence, if such elasticities are regarded as meaningful, then the balancing of origin and destination totals must be regarded as an integral part of the gravity theory itself.     

旅游目的地品牌基因选择的三力模型构建

旅游目的地竞争已从资源竞争转向品牌竞争。针对当前旅游品牌实践没有价值命题、同质性强等问题，本研究在批判继承现有战略管理、旅游目的地品牌战略等相关理论的基础上，从目的地、客源地、竞争性目的地三个维度，构建了目的地代表力、客源地吸引力、竞争性目的地竞争力的旅游目的地品牌基因筛选的三力（RAC）模型。其中，代表力包括原生性、唯一性、真实性；吸引力包括价值性、自然环境和生活方式差异性、地方依恋性；竞争力包括稀缺性、不可模仿性、难以替代性。旅游目的地品牌基因筛选的三力（RAC）模型将为旅游目的地品牌基因筛选提供完整、详细、具有可操作性且可以广泛应用的定量分析工具，有助于解决当下目的地品牌营销缺乏理论依据问题，能够指导旅游目的地管理机构的品牌建设实践。     

What constitutes a ‘trip’? Examining child journey attributes using GPS and self-report

Active travel is associated with improved health and development outcomes in children. Accurate detection of children's travel behaviors and routes, however, is problematic. Travel diaries are often used to collect information on children's travel behaviors, yet no evidence for the accuracy of this methodology exists. This study investigated the validity of children's self-reported trips (origin, destination) compared with an objective criterion (global positioning systems units; GPS). Children (n = 10, 9–11 y) wore the GPS units for seven consecutive days between March and June 2011 and completed travel diaries daily with researcher assistance. Affinity group interviews were conducted in December 2011 with 30 children from two schools to garner perspectives on trip definition, neighborhood perceptions, and to illuminate GPS and travel diary findings. GPS journeys were manually compared with travel diary journeys for destination sequencing, start times, and travel mode. Accuracy in trip sequencing was compared by day type, and journey type using percentage differences and the chi-square (χ²) statistic. Of the 380 trips captured, 54.5% of journey sequences were fully or partially matched, 22.4% were GPS only trips and 23.2% travel diary only. Greater accuracy (full/partial match) was observed for weekdays than for weekend days and for the journey to or from school than for other journeys. Travel mode agreement existed for 99% of matched trips. Although children's travel diaries may confer contextual journey information, they may not provide completely accurate information on journey sequencing. Thematic analysis of affinity group data revealed that reasons for this are multifaceted, including differing concepts of what constitutes a ‘trip’. A combined approach of GPS and travel diary is recommended to gather a comprehensive understanding of children's journey characteristics.     

MODELING SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN SPATIAL INTERACTION DATA: AN APPLICATION TO PATENT CITATION DATA IN THE EUROPEAN UNION*

ABSTRACT Spatial interaction models of the gravity type are widely used to model origin–destination flows. They draw attention to three types of variables to explain variation in spatial interactions across geographic space: variables that characterize an origin region of a flow, variables that characterize a destination region of a flow, and finally variables that measure the separation between origin and destination regions. This paper outlines and compares two approaches, the spatial econometric and the eigenfunction‐based spatial filtering approach, to deal with the issue of spatial autocorrelation among flow residuals. An example using patent citation data that capture knowledge flows across 112 European regions serves to illustrate the application and the comparison of the two approaches.     

Who goes to Russia? Understanding gendered migration patterns

Because of its relatively recent emergence as an international migrant destination, the Russian Federation provides an interesting context to examine when and how migrant flows “masculinize” or “feminize.” While recent migration to Russia appears to be male-dominated, the sex composition of registered migrant flows has varied substantially throughout the post-Soviet period, and there is significant variation in the sex composition of flows from different origin countries. I use multiple origin- and destination-based data-sets to identify gender differences in both the number and characteristics of migrants to Russia from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and Vietnam. These data show that labor migration from Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and probably Georgia is male-dominated, with women coming as tied migrants, while men and women are equally likely to be labor migrants coming from Ukraine and Vietnam. In addition, high levels of human capital are an important motivating factor for women’s migration in the former Soviet Union. These findings highlight the importance of considering both origin and destination factors to understand the gender dynamics of migrant flows.     

流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其对定居意愿的影响——基于福州市的调查

基于福州市流动人口调查数据,从生态环境、人文环境和制度环境3个方面分析了流动人口对流入地的环境感知及其群体差异和对定居意愿的影响。研究发现:①流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在层次性,其排序如下:生态环境 > 人文环境 > 制度环境;②流动人口对流入地的环境感知存在群体差异,性别、职业类型、个人及家庭收入和方言适应程度的影响显著;受教育程度和居留时间仅有一定影响;而年龄、婚姻状况的影响不显著;③在控制了个体特征后,流动人口对流入地的环境感知对于提高其定居意愿具有显著的促进作用。     

近20年国外旅游目的地市场营销研究综述

随着旅游业客源市场竞争日益加剧,旅游目的地市场营销在旅游营销管理中逐渐被重视,并成为旅游目的地提升综合竞争力的一个重要因素。运用文献分析法,对国外有关旅游目的地市场营销研究进行了全面的梳理和总结。国外研究主要集中在旅游客源市场、旅游目的地营销主体和方式、旅游目的地形象以及旅游目的地市场营销信息技术与渠道四个方面,其中有关旅游目的地市场营销信息技术与渠道,新兴知识引入比例最大。     

Shopping for Schools: How Do Marginal Consumers Gather Information About Schools?

The theory of the marginal consumer holds that a subset of better informed consumers can create a globally more efficient market through their purchase decisions. In the market for education created by recent school choice initiatives, these "market mavens" are essential to the successful functioning of the choice system given the empirically documented low quantity and quality of information possessed by the average consumer. Little is known, however, about the differences between how marginal consumers and average consumers of education search for information and make decisions about their children's schooling.     

Differences in hi‐tech immigrant earnings and wages across Canadian cities

This paper examines the relative earnings and wages of immigrants working in the hi‐tech sector in Canada's cities. Between 1990 and 2000, a sizeable earnings advantage of immigrants over nonimmigrants employed in the hi‐tech sector evaporated, and this change was most noticeable in the largest cities. We use population census microdata to examine the geographical dimensions of this shift. After controlling for individual characteristics, we show that immigrants in the largest and tech‐intensive cities earn significantly less relative to nonimmigrants than those in midsized and smaller cities. We also present results comparing the hi‐tech immigrant wage and earnings gap for the five largest Canadian cities. The findings are consistent with the notion that geographic differences are an important component of the overall earnings gap between immigrants and nonimmigrants.     

A Selection Bias Approach to Destination Choice

Research on consumer search behavior commonly envisages destination choice as a two-step process: (1) delineate the search set, and (2) evaluate choices therein. However, much of the empirical work in destination choice—including logit and nested logit formulations—models only the latter, and not the set delineation itself. In the presence of correlation between error terms in set delineation and choice selection, statistical estimators are biased, a problem that Heckman and others have called selection bias. In this paper, an alternative two-stage method is proposed to estimate the parameters of models of set delineation and choice selection. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the properties of these two-stage estimators, and to show the magnitude of bias inherent in traditional methods of estimation.     

Onward Precarity,Mobility, and Migration among Latin Americans in London

Contributing to debates around the relationships between precarity, mobilities and migration, this paper examines the nature of precarity among onward Latin American (OLA) migrants as they have moved transnationally to multiple destinations from their homelands to southern Europe and onwards to London across different time periods. Drawing on primary research with over 400 OLAs, the discussion highlights how precarity maps onto onward migration trajectories in fractal rather than linear ways. In moving beyond a continuum approach to labour exploitation, the paper develops the concept of “onward precarity” to capture how migrants negotiate intersecting vulnerabilities in holistic spatio‐temporal ways as they move through different structural contexts across the world from origin, through transition to their final destination country over time. These negotiations are underpinned by multiple agentic tactics that revolve around resilience and reworking strategies as onward migrants traverse wider structures of disadvantage in situ and through mobility in different places.