集体化时期农村人口流动剖析--以赣闽粤边区为例

学界一般认为,在长达20多年的集体化时期,农村人口难以流动,农村社会几乎是一个不流动的社会.通过对赣闽粤边区农村人口流动剖析后发现:集体化时期,农村社会仍然流淌着人口流动的涓涓细流;这些细流,既有城镇人口的下乡流,也有农村劳力的进城流,还有农村内部的人口迁移流.集体化时期很大程度上是一个由体制安排移民的时代;集体化时期的农村社会,很大程度上是一个人口向农村、向山区迁流的社会.     

1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的人口时间序列及其湖泊沉积响应

龙感湖、太白湖是经济发达的长江中下游地区重要的浅水湖泊。本研究首先利用历史学的方法复原了黄梅、广济（武穴）和宿松三县1391-2006年的人口时间序列,这是首次将中国历史人口序列的重建深入到县一级。以此为基础,重建了1391-2006年龙感湖-太白湖流域的历史人口序列。在复原方法上,重点吸收了何炳棣等学者关于史载人口数...     

Swiss Bell Beaker population dynamics: eastern or southern influences?

The Bell Beaker complex is defined, above all, by a ceramic style widespread across Europe during the 3rd millennium BC. Its particularly large geographic distribution has provoked different interpretations: a unique population invading Europe, the long-distance exchange of prestige goods, and the absence of a real Bell Beaker population with only the diffusion of its cultural components. For Switzerland, the Bell Beaker period would have developed following influences varying in significance from both the Mediterranean region and Central Europe. Bioanthropology makes it possible to test the first of these hypotheses, which proposes the diffusion of a culture by population displacement. Here, the choice was made to analyze dental nonmetrics. Our previous research on dental nonmetrics supports the idea, for Switzerland, of a certain harmony in Middle Neolithic populations, and the mobility or a moderate population contribution beginning in the Final Neolithic and continuing more intensely during the Bell Beaker period. The aim here is to identify the provenance of the population contribution at the end of the western Swiss Neolithic, and more specifically during the Bell Beaker period. To do so, we have compared the dental morphology of Swiss pre-Bell Beaker, Bell Beaker, and post-Bell Beaker populations with that of contemporaneous populations found not only in the eastern sphere (Czech Republic and Hungary), but also in the southern sphere (southern France and northern Spain). We are now able to demonstrate that the axis for external population influences at the end of the western Swiss Neolithic is clearly southern.     

COVID-19疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响研究

论文基于百度迁徙数据,对比 2020 年与2019年中国清明节、劳动节、国庆节3个重要节日人口城际流动差异,探讨 COVID-19 疫情对中国节日人口城际出行影响。研究指出：①2020年清明节、五一劳动节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度分别较2019年同期下降50.1%和45.2%,同时影响程度存在显著的空间差异;②2020年劳动节、国庆节百度迁徙日均人口城际流动强度指数分别较同年前一个节日增加了17.7%和36.7%,人口出行网络的路径权重、紧密性在持续增加。其中劳动节分析表明,疫情影响下人们倾向于短途出行,同时目的地选择更加多元化;③2020年4月份以哈尔滨市为主的局部疫情复发导致黑龙江省人口城际流入、流出水平分别下降 0.360 个单位和0.365个单位,同时对周边地区人口出行存在负向扩散影响。     

民国时期的安徽人口

民国时期安徽人口发展的总特点呈补偿性低速恢复特征。安徽人口政区分布不均,地域分布的密集点,以长江沿岸为首,依次为淮河流域、江淮丘陵、皖西山区、皖南山区。民国前期,人口省际迁移数量甚微;随着工业发展,大批农民迁入城镇,尤以迁入安庆、芜湖、蚌埠等城市为多。民国时期,安徽人口的职业结构中,从事农业的居首,其次是从事商业和工业的。     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

基于腾讯迁徙数据的中国“春运”城市间人口流动空间格局

“腾讯迁徙”大数据基于位置服务，实时、动态、完整、系统地描述了用户日常出行活动的轨迹。通过采集“腾讯迁徙”数据平台中2018年春运期间中国346个地级及以上城市之间的逐日人口流动数据，分“节前、节中、节后”3个时间段，利用复杂网络分析方法，从人口流动的集散层级、集散体系分层集聚特征、人口流动空间格局、网络空间特征等角度分析各时间段城市间的人口流动特征与空间格局。结果表明，腾讯迁徙大数据直观地揭示了春运期间中国城市间人口流动空间格局，3个时段人口的净流入均呈现十字形骨架支撑的菱形分布，人流集散中心主要集中在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和成渝4大城市群，与城市等级有较强的一致性。人口流动集散体系呈明显的分层集聚，城市行政级别的高低与人口流动影响力存在一定的正相关关系，大部分城市人口流动处于“相对平衡”状态。人口流动网络呈现东密西疏的分布特征和东部并联、西部串联的网络关联特征。人口流动网络局部具有较明显的“社区”结构特征，聚为3个大区级、5个跨区域级和1个地区级社区。     

城市规模分布模型的应用——以珠江三角洲城市群为例

城市规模分布定量研究是城市规划中的一项基础性研究工作,它对于准确地预测城市人口规模以及合理地确定城镇体系结构具有非常重要的意义。本文应用城市首位律、位序-规模律、基尼模型对珠江三角洲城市群的城市规模分布及其变化特征进行了实证分析,同时指出了应用这些模型过程中应注意的若干问题,包括模型的运用范围、理想值、相关性、城市规模基础指标的选取等等。该研究旨在解决我国城市规模分布定量研究中的一些问题与困扰,以期能为城市规划实践提供一定的借鉴。     

The elderly population of Great Britain: locational trends and policy implications

"The distribution in 1981 and trends during the 1970s of the pensionable age population, of those aged 75 years or more and of pensioners living alone in Great Britain are examined by counties, by county districts and at the intra-metropolitan scale. A pause in the tendency towards the spatial dissociation of the elderly from the remainder of the population is revealed. Many large retirement resorts now have declining elderly populations although rapid growth continues in their suburbs and adjacent rural areas. Rapid increases of the elderly population during the 1970s were seen in several inland rural areas and to a lesser extent in well established new towns and large city suburbs."     

中国春运人口流动网络的富人俱乐部现象与不平衡性分析

基于“百度地图春节人口迁徙大数据”,利用加权网络的富人俱乐部系数和归一化不平衡系数方法,对2015年中国春运期间人口流动网络的富人俱乐部现象和不平衡性进行分析。研究结果表明：中国春运人口流动网络中存在明显的富人俱乐部现象,富人俱乐部城市包括北京、上海、广州、苏州、深圳和东莞,这些城市主导了超过77.66%中国城市的省际人口流动,且与这些城市之间的人口流动多属于不平衡关系,同时俱乐部城市之间、俱乐部城市与一小部分城市之间则属于平衡关系,这种流动格局很容易造成各城市在人口流动网络中的地位分化,严重影响了人口流动网络的公平性和安全性。     

Changes in the Distribution of Rural Settlement in Northern Kazakhstan from 1959 to 1963

After the first great population movement to northern Kazakhstan in the period 1953–1958 in conjunction with the start of the virgin-lands cultivation program, a period of reordering and restructuring of rural settlement within the region set in during 1959–1963. Three types of settlement areas are distinguished: (1) in areas of predominantly old settlement (preceding the virgin-lands program), the increase of rural population during this five-year period was below the average rate of natural increase for northern Kazakhstan as a whole; there was a net-outmigration from rural to urban areas and to other parts of northern Kazakhstan, (2) in areas of combined old and new settlement, population increase was more significant and there was a noticeable reduction of small populated places and increase in the number of larger places, (3) in areas of predominantly new settlement, where the density of population is lowest, the rate of population increase is highest, and settlement is mainly in widely spaced larger places.     

Sixteenth- and Seventeenth-Century Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Population Trends in Northeastern North America

Abstract

The Seneca are an original member of the Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Confederacy and one of several Northern Iroquoian societies that inhabited northeastern North America. This research explores their population history during the 16th and 17th centuries. Previous studies of Northern Iroquoian populations identified population increase until contact with Europeans, no evidence of pre-contact diseases, and drastic depopulation resulting from interaction with European societies. Similar patterns were expected in this research. Combining archaeological settlement data collected with non- and minimally invasive survey techniques and ethnohistorical information, this article estimates the population trends of the Seneca. The results show a highly complex population history that includes pre-contact population losses, in- and out-migration episodes, significant losses from Old World diseases, and rapid population recovery. The field methods employed here may have wider applicability for the demographic archaeology of other similarly adapted cultures.     

TRANSPORT AND SUBSISTENCE PATTERNS AT THE TRANSITION TO PASTORALISM,KOOBI FORA,KENYA

The Turkana Basin in Kenya has an extensive record of Holocene activities relating to mobility and economy of foraging and herding communities. Obsidian is only known from a few key localities in northern Kenya. As such, the use of obsidian as a toolstone material, commonly used during the mid‐Holocene, provides one way to trace exchange, interaction and population movements during the transition to pastoralism. We employ X‐ray fluorescence to characterize obsidian artefacts from four Pastoral Neolithic assemblages. Data reveal a highly mobile and diversified population that used watercraft to access and transport obsidian resources. Specifically, the use of the North Island obsidian source in Lake Turkana indicates that boat use was significant during this transitional period. The incorporation of watercraft transport and aquatic resources in our analyses of Pastoral Neolithic sites affords a greater understanding of subsistence, mobility and economy in this important period in East African prehistory.     

Life‐history theory,past human populations and climatic perturbations

A sensitivity and elasticity analysis is performed on historical life‐tables, that of Swedish females from 1751–1755 and 1966–1970, i.e. during and after the Little Ice Age. Coupled with life‐history theory, this approach supplies us with some ideas on how stature can be understood as a proxy for conditions during the intrauterine growth, important if we aspire to calibrate proposed climatic perturbations and their effect on past societies. Matrix population models represent a versatile tool that has been used extensively in conservation biology, ecology, primatology and evolutionary demography. As of yet, applications in bioarchaeology/human osteology have been restricted to population forecasting. The following paper introduces matrix population models and discusses their use in bioarchaeology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strontium isotopic reconstruction of the composition of an urban free black population from the 19th century United States

The Industrial Revolution in the United States had a tremendous impact on society, altering not only economics but also the distribution of it population. It was also during this period that increasing numbers of African Americans gained their freedom from slavery. Released from overt bondage, free African Americans sought the opportunities denied to them for over two centuries, initiating a large scale movement of people to the burgeoning urban centers of industry. The individuals interred in the Newburgh Colored Burial Ground (1830–1870) represent one small segment of this process. Strontium isotopic analyses are utilized in order to discuss the demographic composition of Newburgh’s free black population during this time period. In particular, we examine the relative contribution of migration and natural increase, and whether there are significant sex-specific differences in the formation of the population. The results suggest that Newburgh’s free black population was composed predominantly of individuals born in the immediate region. Additionally, there were a greater percentage of non-local males than females. While historical data suggests that females had greater job opportunities in the north relative to males, the growing industrial economy Newburgh may very well have fostered greater male mobility.     

Developing a Synthetic Index of Land Vulnerability to Drought and Desertification

This paper develops an index of the vulnerability of land to drought and desertification (LVI) for Italy. The index takes into account changes in climate, land use, vegetation cover, soil properties, and population during the period 1990–2000. The LVI was built up through a multivariate approach aimed at assessing the importance of the various indicators included in the synthetic index. Increasing land vulnerability was observed during this time, especially in dry areas of the southern regions. This is interpreted as a consequence of land management practices, agricultural intensification, population pressure, and bio-physical degradation. The LVI can be used in an integrated, decision-support system to evaluate the impact of mitigation policies in rural environments.     

先秦两汉时期疫灾地理研究

疫灾是由传染病大规模流行导致人类健康与生命损失的灾害。先秦两汉时期(公元前771～220年)见于记载的疫灾年份57个,疫灾频度5.74%。其中,春秋战国为1.64%;西汉为7.33%;东汉为15.90%;公元前二世纪为4%,公元前一世纪为9%,公元一世纪为12%,公元二世纪为15%。不排除疫灾记载有近详远略的可能,但从全国范围看,先秦两汉时期疫灾越来越频繁的趋势是客观存在的。疫灾发生的季节除秋季较少外,春、夏、冬季的概率差不多。在周期性规律上,该时期经历了2个大的疫灾稀少期和3个大的疫灾频繁期,第一个波动周期(公元前200～公元前120年)约80年时间,波峰不很明显;第二个波动周期(公元前120～80年)长达2个世纪,其中公元前50～50年的疫灾频度高达17%,为两汉之际的疫灾高峰;第三个波动周期始于80年,东汉灭亡尚未结束,而是下接三国时期的疫灾高峰。在空间分布上,疫灾分布与人口分布有高度相关性,先秦时期仅黄河、长江流域有疫灾发生,西汉时期由于匈奴的介入,蒙新高原开始有疫灾记载,东汉时期南方人口大量增加,东南沿海开始有疫灾记载。总体来说,先秦两汉时期的疫灾是北方甚于南方,但随着时间推移,南方疫灾比重不断提高,反映了南方人口与经济的发展。     

Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa,Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty

An annual water balance model for Wadi Rajil, in Northern Jordan, is used to simulate the ancient water supply system for the Early Bronze Age site of Jawa. The model includes: water delivery from the catchment; local pond storage; and water demand for people, animals and irrigation. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate the uncertainty associated with a range of factors including rainfall, evaporation, water losses and use. The stochastic simulation provides estimates of potential population levels sustainable by the water supply system. Historical precipitation estimates from a Global Circulation Model, with uncertainty bounds, are used to reconstruct the climate at Jawa in the Early Bronze Age (EBA). Model results indicate that the population levels in the predicted wetter conditions during parts of the EBA could have risen to ∼6000 and may have been higher in wet years. However, palaeoclimatic proxies also suggest prolonged droughts in the EBA; and during these periods the water management system was unable to provide adequate supply for a population of 6000. The utility of Monte Carlo based hydrological modelling as a tool within archaeological science is discussed.     

江苏高邮龙虬庄史前墓葬人口状况分析

本文利用江苏高邮龙虬庄史前墓地发掘材料探讨了龙虬庄史前人口的性别比例、平均年龄和死亡高峰、人口规模等问题。笔者认为史前龙虬庄人们可能有意控制了女性人口的数量。艰苦的生活、繁重的劳动、危险的生育过程都是导致人们过早死亡的原因。最后笔者通过静止人口模式和新石器人口增长模式两种方法探讨了龙虬庄当时大致的人口规模以及可能的增长过程。     

1650～1850年伊克昭盟人口复原研究——以蒙古人为研究对象

清代伊克昭盟的人口数字,尤其是蒙古族的人口数字一直比较模糊。一是因为史书缺乏记载,二是民国以来相关研究太少。相关学者在涉及这一问题时或者避而不谈,或者仍沿用民国时期贺扬灵的估计数字。作者在做相关课题时也涉及到这一问题,并发现贺扬灵的人口估计方法值得商榷。本文以1650～1850年为研究时段,以蒙古人为研究对象,以讨论丁的性质和户均人口为切入点,运用现代人口学的研究方法并结合相关资料,对清代前中期伊克昭盟的蒙古族人口进行复原研究,得出的结论是:1650年人口为14万左右,1750年为17万多,1850年为21万多,达到人口高峰。