Migrants and the diffusion of low marital fertility in Belgium

Although the diffusion of fertility behavior between different social strata in historical communities has received considerable attention in recent studies, the relationship between the diffusion of fertility behavior and the diffusion of people (migration) during the nineteenth century remains largely underexplored. Evidence from population registers compiled in the Historical Database of the Liège Region, covering the period of 1812 to 1900, reveals that migrant couples in Sart, Belgium, from 1850 to 1874 and from 1875 to 1899 had a reduced risk of conception. The incorporation of geographical mobility, as well as the migrant status of both husbands and wives, into this fertility research sheds light not only on the spread of ideas and behaviors but also on the possible reasons why the ideas and behaviors of immigrants might have been similar to, or different from, those of a native-born population.     

近十年来中国人口迁移研究及其评价

本文对20世纪90年代以来的中国人口迁移研究进行了总结与评价。文章首先概述了近10年来中国人口迁移研究的主要特点;然后对中国人口迁移研究的主要内容即迁移人口的社会经济特征,人口迁移的空间格局,影响因素,作用,人口迁移政策建议以及人口迁移研究中的理论与方法等方面进行了总结;最后指出了人口迁移研究中存在的问题与未来应该加强研究的领域。     

美国人口地理学的近期进展

20世纪90年代以来,美国人口地理学的研究领域和研究方法有了新的发展。本文首先简要回顾了美国人口地理学的发展历史,然后重点对20世纪90年代以来美国人口地理学的新发展作了详细阐述和评价;并在此基础上指出了我国人口地理学应该借鉴的方面。     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

我国城市郊区化研究的进展与展望

由郊区化的概念及当前我国郊区化研究的争执入手,评述了20世纪90年代以来我国城市郊区化研究的进展,着重从以下几个方面作出进一步研究的展望:①我国第五次人口普查与郊区化研究;②城市季节性郊区化研究;③城市社会空间扩展的研究;④宏、中、微观多元郊区化机制的研究;⑤郊区化研究种类的拓展;⑥城市郊区化的类型与研究方法的多样化;⑦区域城市郊区化研究。     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

Population geography

The status of population geography as a field of study in Australian universities is first discussed. The author then reviews studies on various aspects of Australian population geography, including fertility, mortality, international migration, internal migration, and the geography of aging populations.     

近20年新加坡的中国新移民及其数量估算

本文研究近20年来中国移民进入新加坡的原因、过程和发展趋势,并根据历年新加坡人口统计中的常住人口和非常住人口数量、华人出生率、移民数量和族群比例等数据,推估出新加坡的中国移民新数据。结论是,近30年来,新加坡政府大规模吸收高素质移民,以弥补人口数量不足,确保华族占总人口75%和发展高新产业。进入新加坡的移民总数达164万人,占2009年新加坡居民总数的近33%。其中,华人移民约占80%,主要来自马来西亚和中国。从1990年到2009年,进入新加坡的中国移民潮逐渐加速,总量约50～60万人,约占新加坡总人口的10%～12%。     

西方社会空间视角下的郊区化研究及其启示

作为一种分散型城市化,郊区化始于20世纪20年代,盛于二战后的发达国家。西方早期的郊区化研究主要集中在郊区化的发展浪潮,郊区化的界定方法、发展机制、后果和政府调控等方面,90年代所提出的"新郊区化"概念将郊区化与边缘城市、郊区次级就业中心的发展联系在一起。21世纪以来,社会空间成为西方郊区化研究者最关注的话题。本文基于近年西方学者关于郊区化研究的最新文献,从郊区化与居住空间重构、郊区化与住房选择和分异、郊区化与居民通勤行为、郊区化与居民生活空间、郊区化的社会影响等方面总结了西方学者在社会空间视角下的郊区化研究方面所取得的研究成果。然后,分析了西方研究议题转变和研究方法创新对中国郊区化研究所带来的启示。最后,从研究视角拓展、定性方法应用、微观机理探讨、多重互动模式建构等方面对未来中国郊区化的研究进行展望。     

The context of migration: the example of Ireland in the nineteenth century

"A classic case where out-migration interacted with many other geographical phenomena is provided by rural Ireland in the nineteenth century. The apparent turning point was the Great Famine of the 1840s, but the areas with the greatest suffering from starvation did not necessarily show the greatest population decline, suggesting that other forces were active. Considerable economic and social changes were already taking place before the Famine: fertility was being reduced, later marriage was becoming established and considerable emigration was already taking place. Immediately after the Famine those areas which had been hardest hit often reverted to pre-Famine conditions and did not show strong population decline until the 1870s. The Famine was a most serious event, but the modernization of Irish rural life, which linked emigration with changes in family structure, agriculture and population numbers, was more important in bringing about geographical change."     

Population replacement,social mobility and development in Italy in the twentieth century

Abstract

Many scholars have expressed alarm at the low fertility and sustained immigration that have characterized Italy in the last decade (1.3 children per woman and an increase of more than 200,000 immigrants per year). This article takes a different approach, showing how low fertility and strong migratory balances (involving migration both between Italian regions and from abroad) have enhanced the formation of human capital, facilitating family strategies of upward social mobility, the construction of a more balanced labor market, increases in income and a decline in the graying of the population. The combination of low fertility and sustained immigration, therefore, has been and still is a fundamental resource for development of the population and of Italian society, especially in central and northern Italy. The article also discusses modifications in family and immigration policies suggested by these findings.     

Gender preference for children and its consequences for migration in China

Much research on the relationship between migration and fertility has centred on the impacts of migration on child-bearing behaviour. This paper reverses this traditional orientation by examining one way in which fertility behaviour, embedded within a patrilineal society, may influence the migration opportunities of married women. The paper begins by discussing issues relating to gender and migration before outlining previously defined models of the migration fertility relationship. One of these models, selection, is used as the basis for further discussion. The context of migration, fertility and selection in terms of gender issues and sex preference patterns in China is presented. Using fertility and migration histories from a survey of a migration population in Beijing, China, to examine women's mobility patterns this paper suggests that the sex of a child can act as a selection factor in the migration of married women. Sex preferences exhibited by the survey respondents are outlined. The implications for migration and household studies are discussed.     

The Inside Story of China's High-Tech Industry: Making Silicon Valley in Beijing. Yu Zhou

Two noted political geographers examine the results of surveys in the "de facto" states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia conducted in 2010. They assess the migration intentions of their residents, the likely destinations and motivations for planned departures, as well as the dramatic population decline due to emigration and expulsion of Georgian residents after wars in the early 1990s. Discussed are economic dislocations, the breakaway republics' uncertain geographical status, as well as improvements in security and economic conditions due to Russian military guarantees and massive economic aid that followed the 2008 wars with Georgia. The authors utilize key predictors derived from hypotheses about the push and pull forces affecting the decision to migrate (socio-demographic, war experiences, and attitudes about the "de facto" state prospects) to develop explanatory models of migration for each territory before deriving a pooled set of explanations. Both surveys suggest the likelihood that the majority of potential migrants have already left. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F220, F510, I300, J110, O150. 1 figure, 7 tables, 59 references.     

From temporary to permanent townsmen: migrants from the Malalaua District,Papua New Guinea

An attempt is made to explain how a group of people moved from being newcomers to town in the 1940s to being one of the most permanent and stable residential elements in Papua New Guinea's towns in the 1970s. Circular and permanent migration, as Young maintains, are not 2 distinct processes, and both initial rural urban movements and migrants' decisions to return or not to return home are examined simultaneously. The hypothetical career of a migrant is considered all the way from village residence to permanent urban residence along with the different decision points that might vary this career. In this case study focus is on 2 sets of factors that affect migration decisions: an imbalance in rural and urban economic conditions and the effects of the migration process itself. The people discussed come from what is now known as the Malalaua District of the Gulf Province and are referred to as Malalauas. Historically, there are several feastures of Malalaua urban migration that are important. Malalaua migration began earlier than that of most urban migrant groups in Papua New Guinea. In the 1963 urban population there were a number of Malalauas who first came to Port Moresby before or during World War 2. Migration from the Malalaua District has continued in a steady stream from the 1940s to the 1970s, although there is no evidence on absolute numbers of new migrants in any 1 year. The pattern of Malalaua migration to towns over the entire period has been largely one of the movement of young single adult males and young female adults moving to town on marriage. Both the absolute numbers of migrants and the proportion of Malalauas absent from the District have risen rapidly over the 20 years to 1972. Finally, children are being born to Malalaua migrants in town. Malalauas are possibly the migrant group most firmly established in town. The Malalauas are one of the most longterm and residential groups in Port Moresby. In Papua New Guinea as a whole they must be one of the migrant groups with the greatest commitment to urban living. Economic factors have been very important in Malalau decisions to leave the village, particularly the decisions of adult males. The migration process itself has increasingly affected migrant decisions: factors such as the diminished attraction of a depopulated rural community, a change in tastes towards urban based ways of living, the growth of strong personal and family ties among urban residents, and a simultaneous reduction in such ties with rural residents. It is argued that this 2nd set of factors over time increases in importance relative to rural-urban economic imbalance as an explanation of migration behavior. In general, rural urban economic opportunities have become less important over time. So in the 1970s and 1980s it would be argued that many Malalauas would not respond to increases in urban unemployment of rural incomes by moving back to the village. They would be permanent townspeople. This explanation of migration decisions is dynamic: in the history of individuals and groups the context and thus the explanation of decisions change.     

Population-change determinants in an early transitional society: the western Sierra Leone example

The author examines the role of geographical and historical processes in village population changes in western Sierra Leone as an example, with particular emphasis on the impact of migration. Both official census and unpublished data are used. Changes in population settlement over the period 1911 to 1963 are reviewed     

Asian migration to Australia: Changing trends and implications

International migration between Asia and Australia has undergone profound change in the last two decades. This paper outlines the major changes which have occurred in this movement. The proportion of Australia's resident population born in Asia has increased from 1.1 % in 1976 to 5.5 % in 2001. Asians now make up more than a third of new settlers to Australia but there has been an increased diversity in the flow of Asian settlers to Australia as well as the substantial increase in numbers. Australian international migration has entered a new era since the mid‐1990s with a greatly increased flow of temporary workers to Australia. The inflow of these workers is less dominated by Asia‐born people than is the permanent flow except for student migration. There is also an increasing flow of movers from Australia to Asia. Much current knowledge and research remain focused on Asian permanent settlement in Australia. While this is important and worthwhile, there is a need to broaden the work to encompass the full range of population movements between Asia and Australia if the impact of international migration is to be adequately assessed.     

Small Area Population Estimation: Estimating Population Size at Ward Level 2014 in South Africa

The census is the traditional source of population figures at various levels. Census figures however are technically outdated immediately they are released because planners require figures for the present and possibly for future dates. In an attempt to meet this demand different organisations and researchers produce population estimates and projections. These estimates however are usually at higher geographical levels and often do not meet the planning needs of administrators at lower geographical levels. This study extends a top‐down estimation method to an African country by estimating the mid‐2014 population at ward level in South Africa. The study used the 2011 South Africa Census to estimate current levels of fertility, mortality as well as current trends in net migration at a higher geographical level. Historical trends in fertility and mortality were based on the 1996 Census, 1997 and 1998 October Household Surveys as well as the 2007 Community Survey data. The results indicate that that 20 of the largest wards as at mid‐2014 were located in South Africa's metropolitan areas. Nineteen of the 20 largest wards are currently growing at a rate of over 4% per annum and if this trend continues, eighteen of these wards will double their current population size in less than 15 years.     

Population geography

Population geographers are involved in contemporary policy issues, the production of quality work, and successful communication of research findings. This article reviewed some contributions population geographers have made to the understanding of the geographic impact of aging and the consequences of migration. Geographers have come late to the study of aging and have focused primarily on four main policy issues: 1) fertility decline, 2) housing demography, 3) aged patterns of housing and migration, and 4) government policy. Fertility decline research has highlighted information diffusion theories for fertility decline by researchers such as Zelinsky, Skeldon, and Noin. Changes in attitudes and the removal on constraints has been examined by Woods. Residential mobility studies have been the focus of researchers such as Gober, Moore, and Clark, and Myers. Regional labor markets and the movement of the "baby boom" through the life course have been examined by Miron, Plane and Rogerson, and Clout, who studied the empty nesters and the movement out of suburbia. Private residential housing has increased for the elderly in England and Wales (Hamnett and Mullings), and seasonal migration of Minnesotans results in lost sales revenues and high health and social costs for those too ill to travel (Craig). Geographers have not accomplished a significant thrust into the literature on demographic aging. Contributions to the transnational and international literature have resulted in internal migration studies by Clout on "counterurbanization" in northwestern industrial Europe, while Fielding, Baltensperger, Marchand and Scott, and Jones have examined the continuing rural-urban migration. The loss of urban population has been associated with inner city problems, the impact of labor supply and market demand, and the revenue and health care consequences in the work of Champion, Gibson, and Champion and Illeris, and Craig. Impacts are felt differently by geographic location, and assorted models have been developed for examining interregional migration. Population movement between countries will be a future major policy issue associated with disparities in development. The benefits and disadvantages of immigration have been examined. Refugee movements have been a neglected are of study.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.