1949年国民政府金融的最后一搏——银元券发行述评

国民政府从发行法币到金圆券而银元券,呈一下降曲线,显示出行政控制经济、操纵货币发行的弱化趋势。通过对银元券的发行背景、出台过程以及失败原因的系统分析,探究其内在实质,从而认识到纸币的发行必须遵守经济规律,超经济手段的滥用只会自食其果。银元券最终成为国民党在经济、金融领域彻底失败,无奈地逃离大陆的历史见证。     

Paul Keating and leadership: Was the ‘personal’ political?

This article proposes three possible reasons why political leaders abide by policy decisions in the face of vigorous opposition – because they perceive the policy to be ‘right’, because abiding by a decision is necessary to appear ‘strong’, or because of personal motives arising from the leader themselves. The article applies this framework to Paul Keating's apparent refusal, as Treasurer in 1989, to consider mortgage relief in the midst of prohibitively high interest rates arising from monetary policy at that time. The article concludes that it is the ‘personal’ dimension that most explains Keating's decision-making on this issue. This is a significant finding given that such personal motives are incapable of legitimation in liberal democratic terms, yet policy decisions arising from them can have an immense impact.

政治领导人在强大的反对力量面前坚持其政策决定。本人分析了三种可能的原因：认定其政策正确;欲显示强大需坚持政策;领导者个人方面的动机。本文根据这个思路分析了保罗齐丁。保罗1989年任澳大利亚财长时面对当时货币政策造成的利率奇高的局面而拒绝考虑抵押减免。笔者认为,个人因素可以解释保罗的决策。这个发见很重要,因为个人动机在自由民主那里虽无合法性,但由此做出的决定却能产生广大的影响。     

从货币流通量看清代前期的经济增长与波动

The eighteenth century was the heyday of Chinese traditional economic development, that the monetization and sharp increase in the supply of silver stimulated long-distance trade and the rise of regional merchants groups, and increased industrial and agricultural production all reflecting the overall economic development of this period. Along with commoditization and monetization of the economy, monetary supplies and government financial behavior had increasing influence on the economy. The shortage of monetary supplies gave rise to three economic depressions: the early years of the Qing Dynasty, Jiaqing’s reign, and Daoguang’s reign. This study clearly indicates that the scholarly debate over the “stagnation” or “growth” of the Qing economy perhaps merely depends on the period of time and aspect of the economy one examines. The two viewpoints can be somewhat reconciled. Translated by Feng Mei from Qingshi Yanjiu 清史研究 (Studies in Qing History), 2008, (3): 24–43     

日本信贷宽松货币政策及其有效性

本文以日本银行在2010年10月到2013年4月间所实施的货币政策作为研究对象,通过考察日本银行的资产负债表规模以及结构的变动,认为上述期间日本银行所实施的货币政策属于非传统货币政策中的信贷宽松货币政策。之后再基于事件研究法,通过考察日本银行货币政策公告以及相关的资产价格变动,定量地分析了日本银行所实施的信贷宽松货币政策对于国债市场产生了较为有效的刺激作用,而对股票市场和外汇市场作用不明显。     

Whither the Developmental State in South Korea? Balancing Welfare and Neoliberalism

Abstract

Scholars of political economy have been debating the role of the Korean state in the economic development of the country, as the characteristics of a developmental state, a neoliberal state and/or a welfare state have appeared simultaneously in the various governments’ policies since the 1990s. This paper argues that although the nature, degree and extent of government intervention has varied from administration to administration, the basic stance of a developmental state has been retained while neoliberal and welfare policies have been used concurrently to further economic and social development. This coexistence of contradictory approaches reflecting alternative market economic systems was the product of a combination of government policies that has for the past 20 years provided the Korean government with the ability to deploy flexible policy mixes in response to changes in the political and economic environment and to maximise the outcomes of developmental policies.     

Policy of Delay: Evidence from a Bayesian Analysis of Metropolitan Land‐Use Choices

Do local policymakers strategically use delay in permitting development to forestall the growth machine? The mantras of smart growth and sustainable development assume local governments can balance the competing values of economic development, ecology, and equity interests in a community. We employ a political market framework to explain differences in local government land use decisions. This framework conceptualizes policy choices as resulting from the interplay between the aggregate policy demand by residents, developers, and environmental interests and the aggregate supply by government authorities. Delays can be imposed strategically through processes of development approval by city governments where industry strength and form of government vary within county‐level service‐delivery fragmentation. We utilize novel Bayesian multilevel modelling of data collected from 2007 and 2015 surveys of Florida city planners and find strong institutional effects and multilevel relationships.     

1966～1976年我国个体私营经济政策述评

1966～1976年间,我国对个体私营经济采取了严格限制的政策,至1976年底,私营经济在我国已经绝迹,个体经济也微乎其微,全国城镇个体工商业者只剩下19万人,仅为1966年的12.2%.此外,由于这期间对自留地、家庭副业、集市贸易的限制政策,扼杀了农村经济的生机和活力.     

The Atlantic Challenge: How Political Science Understands Canada’s Smallest Region

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how Canadian political science portrays Atlantic Canada, along with some of the consequences of persistent misrepresentations. I first explore traditional portrayals of Atlantic Canada as well as arguments challenging those conceptions, demonstrating that it is no longer appropriate to treat Atlantic Canada as primarily defined by either economic processes or common political culture. I then survey the Canadian Journal of Political Science, Canadian Public Administration and Canadian Public Policy to determine the extent to which discussions of Atlantic Canada still, (a) emphasize economic phenomena, and (b) assume a common Atlantic political culture. I find that, while political scientists are now less likely to study the region in terms of economic phenomena, they still perpetuate outdated depictions of Atlantic political culture. This tendency results in a certain degree of methodological imprecision and reinforces problematic assumptions about Atlantic political life.     

Can Russia Break the "Resource Curse"?

A noted European economist argues that the Russian economy and its post-2000 growth have been heavily dependent on natural resources, especially hydrocarbons, and are bound to remain so for some time to come. Given that many economists have come to view rich natural resource endowments as a "curse" that undermines development, the question arises as to whether Russian economic development is doomed. The author argues that while the challenges posed by resource dependence are serious, they can be overcome, or at least substantially mitigated, if accompanied by the right economic policies as the examples of Australia, Canada, and the Scandinavian countries demonstrate. He analyzes what these economic policies are for Russia, and how to set up Russian economic and political conditions to facilitate their implementation. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E6, O1, O52, P2, Q43. 4 figures, 2 tables, 50 references.