Connecting climate variability and conflict: Implications for empirical testing

Quantitative research on climate variability and conflict is frequently criticized for being theoretically underdeveloped. In this article I discuss the most plausible suggested mechanisms connecting climate variability to conflict explicitly in reference to empirical testing. This approach could help solve the puzzle of how climate variability and conflict are related by highlighting how researchers can establish the key elements in the causal argument before moving on to testing it empirically. More specifically, I emphasize four key elements when evaluating each individual mechanism: first, who are the most relevant actors, second, what are the actors reacting toward (what type of climate variability), third, what conflict type is the most likely outcome, and fourth, what is the most appropriate temporal and spatial scale for each individual mechanism. Although empirical studies have moved toward more focus on theory and explicit tests of hypotheses derived from theoretical frameworks, an overview of how mechanisms are likely to manifest themselves and a discussion on how researchers can model them in analyses are missing in the research field. Adding technical fixes or new datasets to empirical testing does not automatically improve our understanding of the relationship between climate variability and conflict if the choices are not anchored in theoretical expectations.     

Ethnic and Islamist populism in Turkey and its impact on Kurdish nationalism

Rather than addressing the Kurdish conflict in Turkey directly, this study focuses on how the rising nationalist populism bears on Kurdish voters supporting the pro-Kurdish party HDP. There are very few studies on how Kurds are affected by the nationalist populism often expressed in Turkey by the governing People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) with its slogan “domestic and national,” even though the literature offers a broad variety of studies on the Kurdish conflict. To fill this gap, this study is supported by focus group discussions with the Kurds in Turkey who support the HDP, based on a sample of the Kurds living in Istanbul, which is sometimes referred to as the “largest Kurdish city.” This study claims that the populist slogan of the “domestic and national” not only marginalises the Kurdish interviewees but also weakens their sense of belonging to Turkey, thus encouraging them to establish their own national identities. An important result of the focus group meetings is that AKP's polarising policy not only causes polarisation among Turks but also among the Kurds.     

Weather variability and conflict forecasts: Dynamic human-environment interactions in Kenya

While conflict prediction has gained considerable attention in recent years, the existing literature has relied mainly upon aggregated data for large administrative areas or even entire countries. Such approaches obscure significant geographic variation of conflict dynamics based on household and individual experiences. Conflicts are highly localized, shaped by social and economic contexts that vary across space and change throughout time. We predict two types of conflict reported by respondents in a 2018 Kenyan population survey (N = 1,400) using an identical survey carried out in 2014 in the same enumeration areas (sample locations). We use a conditional random forest (CRF) machine learning method for forecasting. Due to heavy reliance on agriculture in Kenya, we expect that adding weather variability and vegetation health (“environmental”) predictors to a CRF model with 29 demographic and contextual variables will improve the performance of our baseline forecasts. Against our expectations, adding environmental predictors does not enhance our 2018 predictions. Models with only environmental data have the worst fit. A logical extension of many “climate-conflict” studies is that environmental data should improve our ability to predict the location and timing of conflict, yet we find that they generally do not. We interpret this finding through the lens of human-environment interactions research developed in human geography and political ecology. These studies similarly emphasized that circumstantial and historical political, economic, and social relationships have greater credibility for understanding conflict than the weather.     

ON BEING NOT EVEN ANYWHERE NEAR ‘THE PROJECT’: WAYS OF PUTTING OURSELVES IN THE PICTURE

This paper challenges current constructions of “the project” in radical geography by examining the phenomenon of “missing sisters.” We discuss the social construction of lesbians and disabled women as invisible “others” and how this is manifest in Geography. We argue that disabled women and lesbians have had their experiences and lives marginalized; both in the geographic literature and through practices of exclusion. We call for a reconstructed radical geography which includes lesbians and disabled women, on their own revolutionary terms, in the production of knowledge and in political practice. Such an inclusionary project will enrich our understanding of geographic processes and strengthen our efforts to build political strategies of resistance to contemporary forms of oppression and marginalization.     

When climate justice goes wrong: Maladaptation and deep co-production in transformative environmental science and policy

Maladaptation to climate change is often portrayed as arising from the unjust exclusion of vulnerable people. In turn, analysts have proposed knowledge co-production with marginalized groups as a form of transformative climate justice. This paper argues instead that maladaptation arises from a much deeper exclusion based upon the projection of inappropriate understandings of risk and social identity that are treated as unquestioned circumstances of justice. Drawing on social studies of science, the paper argues that the focus on co-production as an intentional act of inclusion needs to be considered alongside “deep” or “reflexive” co-production, which instead refers to the non-cognitive and unavoidable simultaneous generation of knowledge and social order. These processes have linked visions of planetary justice with an understanding of climate risk based on global atmospheric change, and an assumption that community forms an antidote to individualism. The paper uses a discussion of adaptation in western Nepal to illustrate how such deep forms of co-production have significantly reduced understandings of “what” adaptation is for, and “who” is included. Maladaptation, therefore, is not simply unjust implementations of an essentially fair model of adaptation, but also the allocation of exclusionary visions of what and for whom adaptation is for. Debates about transformative climate justice therefore need to understand how their critiques of classical liberal justice generate exclusions of their own, and to engage vulnerable people in reframing, rather than just receiving, circumstances of justice. There is also a need to examine how these circumstances remain unchallenged within environmental science and policy.     

Space,Social Relations,and Contestation: Transformative Peacebuilding and World Social Forum Climate Spaces

The 2013 and 2015 World Social Forums in Tunis, Tunisia hosted thematic “climate spaces” for the first time. This article examines the extent to which these spaces are constitutive of a form of “transformative peacebuilding” aiming to transform social relations and eliminate the structural violence of the world capitalist economy. Both the theoretical and practical activities of civil society at the climate spaces are shown to be transformative but only to the extent that they contest broad processes of trasformismo which transcend differences and obscure the lived realities of governance and resistance. In this sense, civil society groups and movements at the climate spaces are shown to engage with global capitalism to potentially produce new global understanding and action. This generates new understandings of civil society as constitutive of directly resistant modes of social relation that push for radically different visions of climate justice and governance.     

SPACE–TIME MEASURES OF DEMAND FOR SERVICE: BRIDGING LOCATION MODELLING AND ACCESSIBILITY STUDIES THROUGH A TIME‐GEOGRAPHIC FRAMEWORK

Demand for service in location modelling is often evaluated based on the spatial proximity of fixed and static reference locations of demand (e.g. home) to a facility, which ignores person‐specific activity–travel patterns and the temporal changes in demand for service throughout the day. To address these limitations, this study draws upon recent developments in space–time measures of individual accessibility to explore the spatial and temporal structures of demand by considering individuals' space–time constraints and impact of existing urban structures. Based on a time‐geographic framework, eight space–time demand measures were developed and compared with three conventional location‐based demand measures for 12 hospitals through an empirical study conducted in Columbus, Ohio. The results show that geographic proximity between clients' home and facilities may not be an effective indicator for service demand, and conventional demand measures tend to underestimate potential demand for service in most situations. The study concludes that space–time demand measures that take into account people's activity‐travel patterns in space–time would lead to better estimation of demand for service in most cases.     

Terr(it)or(ies) of Peace? The Congolese Mining Frontier and the Fight Against “Conflict Minerals”

This article traces the geography of the “conflict minerals” campaign and its impact on artisanal mining in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, a region that currently emerges as a pioneer case of traceability and due diligence efforts with regard to the exploitation and trade in tantalum, tungsten and tin. We subsequently analyse the opening and attempted closure of the Congolese resource frontier in the context of recent market reform, and we describe how this process has accompanied a transnational corporate–government nexus bent on monopolising Congo's artisanal 3 T resources. Specifically, we argue how the conflict minerals campaign and its implementation “on the ground” has brought about a harmful, disruptive logic for an artisanal mining sector that is notoriously categorised as unruly, illegal, and informal, but of which upstream stakeholders have in practice been jeopardised by transnational reform. We thus shift the attention from questions on the political economy of “resource wars” towards a deeper understanding of the intersecting spaces of production and regulation that underpin formalisation and traceability of “conflict minerals” in this protracted conflict environment.     

1989: THE CHRONOPOLITICS OF REVOLUTION

A failed effort at “reform from above” or a dramatic reassertion of “people power”? Almost thirty-five years on, studies of the Revolutions of 1989 continue to be framed by these two polarities. However, this historiographical focus has meant that scholars have often overlooked the actual content and character of protest itself. This article argues that one way of reinjecting agency and ideas back into our historical understanding of 1989 is through examining the chronopolitics of revolution: that is to say, by addressing how the control and interpretation of time became a political battlefield, a site of contention and negotiation, between Communist regimes, on the one hand, and political activists and society, on the other. Investigating events in the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia, the article contains two central claims: first, that an interrogation of the concept of “chronopolitics” can provide a new angle by which to grasp the revolutionary character of “1989” and the democratic transformations that resulted and, second, by way of inversion, that a study of the temporal experiences across 1989 and the early 1990s can in turn shed light on the analytical value of “chronopolitics” more generally.     

Dancing to the Rhythms of the Fossil Fuel Landscape: Landscape Inertia and the Temporal Limits to Market‐Based Climate Policy

This article makes a contribution to the critique of market‐based mechanisms for climate and energy policy. It explores the environmental effectiveness of market instruments by engaging a broadly conceived “fossil fuel landscape”, or the material, social, and political inertia of fossil energy dependence, as a factor delimiting policy outcomes. The argument is developed through a focus on the idea of economic efficiency as a key ideological construct underlying market‐based policy, and draws on examples from two different market instruments, namely the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and the Flemish tradable green certificate scheme. I argue that an understanding of the shortcomings of these, and similar, policies requires acknowledgment of the political and socio‐economic power that emanates from the temporal dynamics of fossil fuel capitalism, which are reproduced when economic efficiency becomes the key focus of climate policy.     

Blueing business as usual in the ocean: Blue economies,oil, and climate justice

Oceans are increasingly looked toward for their contribution to addressing climate change. These so-called ocean-based climate “solutions” often fall under the umbrella of the “blue economy,” a term used to refer to new ways of organizing ocean economies to provide equitable economic and environmental benefits. Yet, thus far the literature exploring blue economies and blue economy governance has largely overlooked or downplayed its equity and justice roots and implications, including how blue economies are embedded in multiple scales of environmental injustices. This is particularly important when blue economies include offshore oil production. The purpose of this paper is to both emphasize the need and provide an approach to incorporate justice and equity—specifically climate justice—into blue economy planning and scholarship. We build on conceptualizations of blue economies as assemblages to draw attention to the global reach of climate impacts associated with oil that are often overlooked or ignored at sites of production and through regional governance. We argue that greenhouse gas emissions from the life cycle of oil should be included in policies and planning (including blue economy planning) at sites of production, but that this must also incorporate underlying power structures that lead to uneven impacts and climate injustice. We look at environmental assessments as a regional governance tool that could be used to shape opportunities and openings to organize blue economies differently. To illustrate these points, we look at how environmental assessments are playing (and could play) a role in enacting and shaping Newfoundland and Labrador's blue economy.     

How do Migrant Workers Respond to Labour Abuses in “Local Sweatshops”?

This article aims to provide empirical evidence on understanding how migrant workers’ responses to labour exploitation in low‐wage economies are articulated. Inspired by the low levels of conflict among workers in small urban sweatshops in Italy and Argentina, we ask ourselves what contextual and subjective factors prevent workers from organising collectively. Here we argue that in order to understand the nature of their responses, it is necessary to consider not only the organisation of the labour process, but also the class divisions within migrant communities. We also bring in briefly the role of the state in (mis)regulating migrant labour exploitation. We conclude by showing that workers’ responses are highly individualised and that community leaders with economic interests in sweatshop economies may play a role in securing their continuation by channelling the workers’ responses towards the defence of the “ethnic economy”.     

Brazil's Amazon Fund: A “Green Fix” between Offset Pressures and Deforestation Crisis

Emissions trading and nature-based solutions, particularly REDD+, have lent themselves to the critical literature on the “socioecological fix” in neoliberal capital accumulation and state regulation. Prone to reversals, land conflict, and leakage, these mechanisms displace the burden of carbon emissions reductions to global South countries, promote new green commodities, and thus increase rather than curb the chance of capital accumulations by big polluters. Studies of existing REDD+ projects register the privatisation of forest management on the one hand and “aidification” on the other, suggesting impediments to fully commodifying forest carbon ranging from social movement resistance to technical issues. This case study of Brazil's national Amazon Fund points to global South protagonism in constructing and negotiating REDD+, challenging Northern and market hegemonies. Progressive Southern actors use the political space of the fix to defend rural communities' territorial rights and demand resources in line with historic responsibilities and climate justice.     

Political geography and climate change: Introduction to a virtual special issue of Political Geography on climate change and political geography,November 2015–February 2016

Climate change is a major issue in global politics, one that has profound implications for the future of the planet, and one that political geographers have been addressing in recent years. This special virtual issue of Political Geography highlights the contributions made in the journal to addressing both the empirical questions of how climate change might cause conflict and human insecurity and the larger questions of how climate is represented in political discourse and policy discussions.     

Does Combinatorial Knowledge Lead to a Better Innovation Performance of Firms?

The knowledge base concept in the past was often applied in its “pure form”, i.e. it was assumed that there are dominant knowledge bases in particular sectors and firms shaping knowledge and innovation processes and related networks. For “analytical sectors” such as biotech, it has been argued that codified knowledge generated by universities and R&D organizations is the key for innovation, whereas “synthetic sectors” such as machinery innovate more incrementally by recombining existing knowledge often drawn from suppliers or service firms. Empirical literature has partly confirmed these patters, but also shown more complex knowledge processes. More recently it has been argued that combinations of different knowledge bases might enhance the innovation performance of firms. For example in “analytical sectors”, firms might benefit not just from new and basic knowledge generated by research, but also from recombining existing and applied knowledge or by drawing on symbolic knowledge. Combinatorial knowledge bases might also be relevant for “synthetic” and “symbolic sectors”, but in different forms. This study investigates for the ICT sector in regions of Austria if the reliance on combinatorial knowledge leads to a better innovation performance than the use of more narrow knowledge bases.     

5. WHAT DO MEDIEVAL BUILDINGS MEAN?

The aim of this article is to review and reconsider what scholars, including historians, archaeologists, and those in other disciplines, are trying to get at when they attempt a “social interpretation” of English late medieval domestic buildings. I focus on the definition and interpretation of “meaning,” and I examine critically a series of concepts routinely deployed in social interpretations in the past, including my own work, such as type, zeitgeist, and intention. I argue that some of these concepts and interpretive moves are problematic and rather than aiding in our understanding, raise further questions in their turn about how buildings were lived in and understood by their medieval inhabitants. I argue for a shift in language and jargon away from “planning” and “meaning” to that of “lived experience”. I explore such a possible shift with reference to different understandings of and debates over the late medieval castle of Bodiam in southeastern England. Such a shift from meaning to lived experience raises fresh challenges for the development and empirical evaluation of interdisciplinary research on medieval buildings, but it also raises fresh possibilities and insights.     

CRITICAL THEORY AND PUBLIC POLICY

In the confines of the study of politics, public policy analysis involves a shift from pure to applied research, a shift which intensifies the problem of the fact-value split inherited from positivist behavioralism. While early public policy literature concentrated on empirical policy-making processes bypassing moral criteria, some recent writings have elaborated on policymaking and policy evaluation as a type of normative inquiry; significant steps in this direction have been undertaken by Duncan MacRae and especially by Jurgen Habermas in the context of “critical theory.” According to Habermas, policy evaluation requires a critically reflective “practical discourse” open not only to experts or policy analysts but to the public at large. The paper argues that such discourse is a valuable remedy against the technical-instrumental bent of applied science, but that recovery of a fully non-instrumental “practical” judgement presupposes an evaluation not only of concrete policies but of the status of “policy” itself.     

Producing Victimhood: Landmines,Reparations, and Law in Colombia

This research theorizes Colombia's 2011 Victims’ and Land Restitution Law (the Victims’ Law) as a biopolitical program that intends to foster the lives of conflict‐affected populations through providing an array of reparation measures. Based on fieldwork with internally displaced landmine victims in Colombia's Magdalena Medio region, I highlight how the Victims’ Law constitutes the identity of which populations count as “victims” worthy of reparations, how such parameters are contested, and how landmine survivors’ sense of themselves as “victims” is mediated via their experiences with the Victims’ Law and the reparation programs it provides. In particular, I highlight the possibilities and limitations of reparation measures that hinge on small‐scale business incubation programs for landmine victims to show how a legally recognized victimhood category presupposes “self‐responsible” neoliberal subjects who must confront contexts of conflict and state neglect.