REGIONAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE NETHERLANDS: EVIDENCE OF AGGLOMERATION AND CONGESTION EFFECTS*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of localization, urbanization, and diversification on regional labor productivity levels and growth. We find substantial effects, accounting for roughly half of the explained variation in the labor productivity differences within the Netherlands in the 1990s. Diversification, urbanization, and localization effects are significant and positive for productivity levels. These levels appear cointegrated. The error correction specification of productivity growth surprisingly reflects negative agglomeration effects. From the theoretical model it follows that congestion effects must have taken precedence over agglomeration effects during this period. Both agglomeration and congestion effects are dampened by job density in neighboring regions. Finally, policy simulations with the estimated model show that spatial concentration is more harmful to national productivity growth than spatial dispersion.     

The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply-driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter-regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley-model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.     

TESTING FOR CAUSALITY BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES

ABSTRACT The productivity effects of agglomeration economies are often treated as endogenous in empirical work due to the potential for reverse causality. The extent to which these relationships are actually simultaneously determined, however, remains largely unobserved. This paper estimates panel data vector autoregressions for different sectors of the economy to test for bidirectional causality between productivity and both localization and urbanization economies. The aim is to address some key questions that will help to identify the extent of the endogeneity problem. Can we actually observe bidirectionality in the data? Does it feature more for some industries than for others? Is it more prevalent for localization or urbanization economies? The results show that agglomeration economies are not strictly unidirectional and that higher levels of productivity can induce growth in the scale of local urban and industrial environments. The paper discusses the difficulties that these issues pose for the estimation of agglomeration economies.     

PATTERNS AND DETERMINANTS OF PRODUCTIVE EFFICIENCY IN STATE MANUFACTURING*

ABSTRACT This paper uses a stochastic frontier production-function model to measure and compare productivity efficiency in the manufacturing sector of states in the United States over the period 1959–1972. Based on this model we find considerable variations in productive efficiency across states. A large portion of the variation is found to be related to regional differences in labor-force characteristics, levels of urbanization and industrial structure. We also examine the relationship between productive efficiency and the subsequent growth of manufacturing and find some evidence of a weak relationship between efficiency and the growth of employment.     

TESTING URBANIZATION ECONOMIES IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES: URBAN DIVERSITY OR URBAN SIZE?

ABSTRACT Whether urbanization economies stem from urban diversity or urban scale is not clear in the literature. This paper uses the 2004 China manufacturing census data and tests simultaneously the effects of urban size and industrial diversity on firm productivity, controlling for localization economies and human capital externalities. We find that productivity increases with city size—but at a diminishing rate, and the city size effect becomes negative for cities with population over two million. Firms also benefit from industrial diversity, and the strength of such benefit increases with city size but decreases with firm size. The characteristics of agglomeration economies in a transition economy are also discussed.     

上海、东京城市化进程及动力因子比较研究

本文以中国上海和日本东京为案例地,从人口、经济、土地、社会,城市化内涵的四个方面入手,运用熵值法对上海1985-2012 年和东京1954-2009 年的城市化水平进行综合测度,对比分析二者城市化进程,其次利用主成分回归法对二者城市化进程的驱动因子进行对比分析。结果表明：①上海目前处于城市化继续发展阶段,以城市经济的增长和土地面积的扩张为主要特征;东京目前处于城市化稳定发展阶段,经济的迅速发展和社会服务体系的完善是其城市化的主要体现;②城市化进程动力因子对比显示,上海主要依靠投资、内需及城市土地扩张推动,经济外向力作用相对较弱,而东京城市化动力中经济外向力作用明显。     

Theoretical economic geography and spatial econometrics: dynamic perspectives

Theoretical economic geography has received significant newimpetus from so-called ‘new economic geography’theory, and this provides the basis of the spatial econometricmodel developed in this paper. The model, which is seen as partof an attempt to bridge the gap that presently exists betweenthis new body of theory and reality, is fitted using 3SLS todata on manufacturing productivity growth data for 178 regionsof the EU covering the periods 1975–81, 1981–89,1989–95. The resulting estimates point to the continuedexistence over time of increasing returns, and thus providessupport for one of the main tenets of new economic geographytheory. The results also highlight urbanization, peripherality,the initial level of technology and across-region spilloversas determinants of regional productivity growth variations,operating via the rate of technical progress and labour efficiencyvariations. There is no evidence that these variables are diminishingin significance systematically over time, leading to the conclusionthat spatial polarization in productivity will persist. Thepaper points to the need for further testing of fundamentalassumptions of the underlying theory, and for developments inthe theory to accommodate interdependence between model parametersand the socio-economic context within which the process is operating.     

Location and Growth in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract Clustering of economic performance across jurisdictions has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbors. Much of this work, however, has been aspatial, implying that the influence of location attributes on growth has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the contribution of location to regional economic growth using municipio‐level data for the Brazilian Northeast—a historically lagging region of the country. We test if productivity among northeastern municipios is converging to a steady state and whether spatial externalities are linked to productivity growth in individual municipios. We find that, conditional on structural characteristics, productivity among municipios is converging at about 3 percent per year. Further, productivity in individual municipios is positively associated with own‐structural characteristics but negatively associated with productivity growth in neighboring municipios. This means that there are negative spatial externalities coming from productivity improvements in neighboring regions.     

Are the most productive regions necessarily the most successful? Local effects of productivity growth on employment and earnings

Economists typically celebrate productivity growth as the chief way to improve living standards. Productivity growth may reduce costs, improve quality, or lead to innovation and new products, but if demand is insufficiently elastic, productivity growth can lead to weakening of labor markets. We study county‐level effects of productivity growth and productivity levels on growth in employment, income, and earnings. The results suggest that productivity growth generally suppresses job growth but has boosting effects on earnings and, to a lesser degree, on per‐capita income, although there is considerable variation across geographies and specific outcomes.     

The Impact of Neutral and Nonneutral Productivity Growth on Creative Capital in a Trading Regional Economy. 区域经济贸易中中性和非中性生产力增长对创新资本的影响

We analyze a two‐sector model of a trading creative regional economy (TCRE) of the sort studied by Florida. Our analysis focuses on two cases. The first case concerns the impact of faster neutral, whereas the second case concerns the impact of faster nonneutral, productivity growth in the tradable sector on the employment of creative people in each of a TCRE's two sectors. In both cases, the sign of the percentage change in the steady‐state use of creative capital in the nontradable sector is ambiguous. In other words, the potential departure of creative people from the tradable to the nontradable sector does not depend upon whether the faster productivity growth being studied is neutral or nonneutral. In addition, because the effects of faster productivity growth in the tradable sector are not necessarily innocuous, a potential role exists for activist policy designed to countermand the possibly negative effects of faster productivity growth on either the tradable or the nontradable sector. This finding of possible “uneven development” is consistent with Florida's view that TCREs can give rise to externalities such as uneven regional development.     

基于GIS的西安市南郊土地城市化空间发展研究

城市化发展所带来的社会经济的剧烈变动,促使城乡地域土地利用的根本性变革,并由此引发农村和城市协调发展等问题。城市化的过程也是一种土地利用的变动过程。伴随着城市化,土地利用问题日益成为影响城市化发展的关键。本研究选取西安市南郊为研究区,利用覆盖西安市的SPOT遥感影像,结合相关文献、资料,在解译的基础上获得1996年和2006年西安市南郊土地利用数据。通过分析对比可知,土地利用面积变化和类型改变对城郊经济结构以及社会活动都产生了巨大影响。为了实现城乡结合部的土地可持续利用,文中深入剖析了土地不可持续利用问题,进而提出了相应的对策建议。     

工业化时期德国西部城市的崛起及其影响

工业化时期是德国西部地区城市化发展的关键时期。这一时期该地区城市的发展速度明显加快,产业结构日益优化,城市体系逐渐完善,城市类型也朝着多样化的趋势发展。西部城市的强势崛起不仅得益于工业化的高速发展、大规模的铁路建设以及农业生产率的提高等因素,而且也加快了工业化进程,促进了经济重心的西移,进而带动了西北地区港口城市的快速成长。     

城镇化的新形式与中国的人口城镇化政策

本文从三个方面讨论了发展中国家城镇化进程不同于发达国家相应发展阶段的特点及由此产生的新的城镇化形式对我国城镇化政策的影响,分析了上述城镇化的新特点和新形式在我国人口迁移和城镇化政策上的意义,认为相关研究和方针、政策的制定必须对上述新特点和新形式予以更多的关注。     

CONTEMPORARY URBANIZATION AND AN OPTIMAL SIZE FOR SOVIET CITIES

Three Leningrad geographers use a recent book by Yu. L. Pivovarov of Moscow as a point of departure to focus on two issues relating to urbanization in the Soviet Union: (1) the nature of the urbanization process; (2) optimal city size. The authors challenge Pivovarov's view that urbanization is a relatively independent socio-historical process in which places evolve on their own from lower forms to higher forms of settlement. They contend that urbanization is closely related to the characteristics of a given socio-economic system and that, in the Soviet Union, it involves not only city growth per se, but the relationship between urban and rural settlement and the penetration of urban life styles into the countryside. On the controversy surrounding optimal size, the writers say that the issue is not to find the ideal size for cities in general, but to set desirable limits for cities of different functional types and, most important, to insure that the infrastructure of cities keeps pace with industrial potential. If industrial development moves far ahead of infrastructure, the authors argue, it is desirable to constrain further growth, especially by keeping out industries that tend to have an agglomerative effect in attracting other industries. Once infrastructure catches up with industrial development, the constraints can be eased and the economies of size inherent in large cities can again come into play.     

基于城市社会地理学视角的农民工城镇化研究

农民工深度城镇化成为我国城市化发展、经济增长转型、社会稳定和可持续发展的重大课题。在总结、梳理国内外农民工城乡迁移与城镇化研究成果的基础上,认为在我国城市化转型发展背景下,基于城市社会地理学视角,以农民工城镇化进程中的个体微观行为特征研究为基础,研究农民工在区域认知、城镇化意愿与行为特征、城镇化格局与过程规律,建立农民工城镇化空间模型,可以揭示农民工个体微观行为下的城镇化进程与区域城镇体系规划的耦合关系;从城市生活空间与社会空间特征评价不同空间与行为模式下的农民工城镇化效率,可以提出效率导向下的农民工城镇化的空间结构与引导规划;基于空间公正理念,从城市公共产品与服务政策、资源可获性的城市社区规划等方面的创新,可以促进农民工公平、公正、有序、有尊严的城镇化进程。     

基于包容性增长的健康城市化支持系统研究

中国已经进入城市社会,高速推进的城市化面临许多突出问题,走健康城市化道路已成为中国今后推进城市化进程的必然选择。包容性增长概念的提出,赋予城市化新的内涵,如何在新形势下通过包容性增长推进城市化健康发展已成为政策要点。本文在厘清健康城市化与包容性增长理论的基础上,指出包容性增长是推进健康城市化的重要机制,以包容性增长为出发点,根据"承载力-支持力-吸引力-延续力-发展力"(CSAED)模型,构建了涵盖资源与环境包容性改善、经济包容性增长、社会民生包容性发展、人口质量包容性提升、政策与制度包容性调整5个方面的健康城市化支持体系。通过建立基于包容性增长的健康城市化支持体系,可以指导和促进我国城市化健康发展。     

我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展研究

中国正处于城镇化进程加速发展时期,城市规模不断扩大,城市数目不断增加,单以非农人口比重这一标准衡量城镇化水平并不能全面反映城镇化的内涵,因此,如何理性评价当前的城镇化状态值得思考。城镇化包含人口向城镇的转型、集中、强化和分异的过程,同样也包括城镇景观的地域推进过程。在归纳总结城镇化的深层内涵的基础上,选择人口城镇化和土地城镇化为切入点,从两个不同的角度衡量我国的城镇化水平,并研究二者协调发展状态。通过时间序列演算,发现人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数均呈现持续上升的趋势,并且从2002年开始土地城镇化指数增长速度明显加快,并在2007年土地城镇化指数超过人口城镇化指数;空间分析的结果显示,我国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展空间格局具有水平总体偏低、阶段差距大、区域分异明显等特点。     

差异分权与多元碎化:大都市边缘地区城镇化空间模式研究——基于武汉市蔡甸区的实证

大都市边缘地区是大都市经济增长与空间拓展的主要地域,也是分权化治理最为复杂的区域。大都市边缘地区往往针对不同主体采取不同模式的分权化来调整其空间治理结构以适应发展需求。本文构建从分权化治理到城镇化空间的逻辑框架,从大都市边缘地区"差异分权"的空间治理格局入手,落脚在"多元碎化"的城镇化空间模式上,进而对从空间治理的"差异分权"到城镇化空间模式的"多元碎化"间的制度逻辑进行了解析,认为差异分权格局是当前大都市区边缘地区城镇化空间模式多元碎化的直接诱因,因此新型城镇化迫切需要从治理结构上予以破解。     

我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系研究——基于1978-2007年东、中、西部、东北地区面板数据

本文选取1978-2007年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验及误差修正模型对我国城市化与经济增长的因果关系进行了检验。实证结果表明:从全国来看,城市化是经济增长的长短期原因,但经济增长是城市化的长短期原因均无法得到证实;东部地区的城市化与经济增长的长短期均互为因果关系;对于中、西部、东北地区而言,城市化是经济增长的长期原因,但不是其短期原因,长短期内经济增长都不是城市化的原因。     

农村城市化影响下的土地资源持续利用初探——以长江三角洲地区为例

土地资源是作为中国二元城市化道路之一的农村城市化最基础性和最受关注的生产力要素,其协同效应驱动农村土地利用模式的全方位变革与重构,并由此引发农村和城市持续、协调发展以及区域土地资源合理利用的系列问题。本文以长江三角洲地区为例,阐述农村城市化运行机制及农村城市化驱动下的区域土地利用方式、结构、模式变革,进而探讨农村城市化进程中土地资源持续利用障碍,并寻求合理的解决途径。它对区域土地资源持续利用和城乡一体化发展具有理论价值和现实意义