The Colonial Roots of Forest Extraction: Rosewood Exploitation in Southern Belize

In 2013 there was a spike in the illegal export of rosewood, a highly‐valued tropical hardwood, from Belize. Hewn by Maya workers at night, logs were sold to Chinese buyers. Although protected by international conservation agreements, container‐loads of rosewood were exported unprocessed, unmarked and untaxed. This article examines the rosewood exports, providing a critical analysis that seeks its underlying causes and lessons for development. Drawing on extensive archival research, interviews with multiple actors, and data on China's rosewood imports, the authors show that the exports reflect a long‐standing pattern: the extraction and export of unprocessed primary commodities from Belize's forests. However, contemporary patterns are not simply repeating colonial history. On the demand side, the recent rosewood boom was triggered by a rapid rise in demand from urban, middle‐class consumers in China, stimulating a new commodity chain. On the supply side, the ‘rosewood crisis’ was facilitated by a peculiar legal‐political conjuncture: it occurred during a period after the Maya communities had won legal rights to their forests through the courts, but before the state had recognized those rights. Thus the incomplete recognition of indigenous land rights collided with long‐standing patterns of forest extractivism and explosive demand in China.     

沉没成本、制度环境与企业出口地理动态

本文使用2002-2011年中国海关出口数据,探究成本视角下企业出口地理动态和作用机制。实证结果表明企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出均对企业在出口市场上的进入和退出存在显著双面性影响：企业出口活动不利于企业进入新市场,但利于企业继续留在国外已有市场中;邻近企业溢出为企业进入新市场创造了有利条件,但加快了企业从已有市场退出。本文还发现在市场化程度较低和政府干预程度较高的地区,企业出口活动和邻近企业溢出发挥的“双面性”影响明显。这意味地方制度环境能影响中国企业出口地理动态,塑造了企业出口的动机和策略。     

Regional inequality in China during its rise as a giant exporter: A value chain analysis

China's exports success has implications for regional income inequality, because most of its export products are manufactured in the coastal zone. We propose a value chain-based accounting framework to quantify the contributions of exports to regional income inequality. We employ newly developed interregional input–output tables for China, which distinguish between processing export activities and ordinary export activities. We analyze the period 2002–2012, the decade during which China became the “Factory of the World.” We find that an RMB of processing exports contributed much more to regional inequality than an RMB of ordinary exports or domestic final demand. Still, changes in regional inequality (increasing in 2002–2007 and decreasing between 2007 and 2012) are much more due to rising ordinary exports in the first subperiod and the growth of domestic final demand coupled with changes in the configuration of value chains in the second.     

How to Further Develop the Nonproliferation Regime? West German Nuclear Exports to Brazil and Iran in Context of US Criticism

ABSTRACT

Nuclear exports were a crucial part of West Germany's nuclear industry. Its domestic market was too small to keep a big nuclear industry alive. But nuclear exports were subject to a nonproliferation regime which West Germany had accepted when signing the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). During the 1970s, there were major quarrels with the United States about West Germany's nuclear export policy and its approach to the nonproliferation regime. Using sources from several German archives, this article examines the nuclear export policy of West Germany and the patterns of justification as a further development of the nonproliferation regime. It is focused on two different cases, the nuclear export to Brazil and to Iran, which are strongly connected and both included sensitive technology such as reprocessing and enrichment.

The export cases touch on the issue of further development of the nonproliferation regime, the emerging nuclear world order and broader conflicts about the hegemonic and discriminatory structure of the NPT. The way West Germany handled US criticism of the exports shows West German willingness to shape its own foreign policy and the attempt to gain independence from US dominance, thus contributing to the decline of bipolarism and strengthening middle powers.     

The Ins and Outs of Iranian Industrial Resilience under Sanctions

This paper draws on export data from four of Iran’s key trade partners—the European Union, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Turkey—to examine the robust and positive correlations between the export of parts and machinery to Iran and Iran’s industrial output, as measured by production index data published by the Central Bank of Iran for industrial enterprises with over 100 employees. The period of analysis is 2000 to 2017. It may seem intuitive that the output of Iranian manufacturers depends on the ability of companies to source intermediate goods such as parts and machinery. However, the imposition of sanctions on Iran is shown to have temporarily decoupled the relationship between European industrial exports to Iran and the Iranian industrial production index—the index remained stable even as European exports fell. An analysis of trade data for the other three trade partners included in this study quantitatively substantiates reports noting that in order to sustain the industrial production index, Iran engaged in processes that can be collectively described as “import reflection.” This entails substituting European intermediate inputs with Chinese inputs while also circumventing sanctions pressures on trade by sourcing European inputs via re‐export from the UAE and Turkey. These processes were fundamental to Iran’s economic resilience in the face of multilateral sanctions and have played a central role in Iran’s defense of its industrialized economy and particularly its non‐oil exports as the administration of US President Donald Trump pursues a new unilateral campaign of “maximum pressure” sanctions.     

The Structure of Russian Industrial Exports in Comparative Perspective

A British economist presents a comparative study focused on the change in the technological structure of Russia's high- and medium-technology industrial exports. The export profiles of 19 countries in the post-communist region, including the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are compared with those of China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia. Classifying 260 export activities for each of the 24 countries according to the level of technology intensity required in production, the author measures change in export structures by employing the Krugman Specialization Index and the Balassa Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage. The results of measures are followed by a discussion of implications for the future development of high-tech industries and higher value-added exports in Russia. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, O11, O30, P50. 4 figures, 2 tables, 36 references.     

STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

Climbing the Ladder? High-Technology Export Performance in Emerging Europe

A British economist examines the development of high-technology industrial exports across the emerging Europe region over the past two decades. After arguing that the development of high-technology capabilities is a key component of economic development, he presents an original index of high-technology industrial export performance that is used to describe patterns of high-technology exports across emerging Europe. When these developments are placed in comparative perspective, it becomes evident that although the countries of emerging Europe have made considerable progress in increasing across-product sophistication of exports and in increasing across-product diversification, most have been less successful in improving levels of within-product sophistication. For emerging Europe and other low- to middle-income countries elsewhere, this will remain a key challenge for the future.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Export Performance in China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the export performance of China at the provincial level. First, it presents a theoretical discussion of the impact of FDI on foreign trade, and then an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the export performance of regions in Chin. It has been found that the impact of FDI on exports differs across three macro-regions in China. The effect is stronger in the coastal region than in the inland regions. Although FDI shows a positive and significant impact on exports from the central region, its impact on the western region is found to be insignificant.     

Trade Liberalization and Export Performance in Bolivia

One of the anticipated gains from the trade liberalization policies adopted by many Latin American countries in recent years is improved export performance. In this article, the arguments on which this expectation is based are reviewed and the impact of trade liberalization on Bolivian manufactured exports analysed. The conclusion is that improved export performance is largely the result of a more realistic and more stable real exchange rate after 1985, while the trade policy reforms have had little impact. Certain deficiencies of Bolivia's export performance, such as the increased emphasis on primary and semi-processed products, and the lack of diversification in terms of both products and markets, are also noted.     

PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET GAS EXPORTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

This paper assesses the prospects for Soviet gas exports to Western Europe, analyzing both supply (domestic) factors, such as gas production, consumption, and transportation, and demand (foreign) factors such as gas demand and market share. This is done using a network allocation model of the Soviet gas pipeline network (for 1985, 1990, and 1995) and a country-by-country analysis of the gas market in Western Europe. In general, the outlook for increased gas exports to Western Europe, at least to the turn of the century, is rather bleak. This is mainly due to a relatively slower rate of growth of gas demand in Western Europe than projected earlier, coupled with overcontracting of gas supplies, because the USSR has enormous gas reserves, ample production, and no major pipeline bottlenecks restricting export volumes. Its huge pipeline construction program allows both domestic consumption and exports to be comfortably accommodated     

Information Availability and Market Power in Export Competition: The Case of Regional Health Care Markets

In this paper I analyze the spatial-economic determinants of export competition. I develop a competing central place spatial interaction model to analyze the spatial availability of information, market power, distance, demand threshold, and interregional market variables. Model estimates are based on national data from The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, and I examine Medicare health exports from the Seattle hospital market to markets throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information availability and market power for the Seattle export hospitals have a significant effect on export sales of hospital Medicare services. Intra and interregional competition with other major hospital markets are significant determinants of export competition. Distance to the Seattle market has a strong, negative effect on export sales and on patient migration from other markets.     

A Geospatial Analysis of China's Exports, 1991-2008

Three Taiwan-based economists employ a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran's I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China's exports over the period 1991-2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China's trade of such major events as the country's accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China's export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.     

Immigrant entrepreneurs,diasporas, and exports

This paper demonstrates the positive effect of immigrant entrepreneurs on manufacturing exports over and above that of diasporas. Using small-scale regional administrative data, our instrumental variable estimates of export gravity models imply that ceteris paribus, that is, holding constant the total number of immigrants, the expected protrade effect of a migrant becoming an entrepreneur amounts to an average increase of US$5,946 in the export flows toward her country of origin. Besides these dyadic effects, immigrant entrepreneurs unlike nonentrepreneurial immigrants raise a region's overall competitiveness and export flows toward other destinations as well.     

The Disposal of European Community Food Surpluses

Since, at its inception, the European Community (EC) was highly dependent on food imports, EC institutions were not designed to facilitate overseas market development for food exports. As time passed, the EC has become much more self-sufficient in food, generating large surpluses in cereals and dairy products. Market development has never been an official EC policy goal, but there is evidence that the EC has used food aid to encourage Third World countries to increase food imports from Europe. Evidence also exists that the Community has used export subsidies as a means of competing for an increased share of promising international markets, though this effort has not been unambiguously successful.     

Educational Outcomes and House Values: A Test of the value added Approach*

Abstract. We use house price hedonics to compare the extent that homeowners value traditional measures of school quality or the “value added” of schooling. Unlike other studies, we use spatial statistics as an identification strategy. Based on our study of 310 school districts and 77,000 house transactions, we find little support for the value added model. Instead, we find that households consistently value a district's average proficiency test scores and expenditures. The elasticity of house prices with respect to school expenditures is 0.49, and an increase in test scores by one standard deviation, ceteris paribus, raises house prices by 7.1 percent.     

Export of Services of Servicing Exports?

Information and communications technology has ensured that many producer services, as well as more ‘basic’ services such as transportation or insurance, are now more tradable than ever. All the indications are that this trade will increase. This has raised the international profile of service and altered governments to their potential as sources of export revenue. This is seen as one way of enhancing national (or regional) economic performance. But should this be assumed to be a panacea for improving national economic growth and restructuring? The general pattern and structure of international trade in services is examined to show that, while valuable, the direct contribution of services to national exports is actually growing relatively slowly and the pattern of trade is highly concentrated. It may actually be important to recognize and nurture the indirect contribution of services to overall national export activity. Goods production and distribution is increasingly dependent on service knowledge and skill; its export competitiveness is a function of the expertise and intellectual knowledge (mainly services) incorporated in the products, the ‘value’ of those products to consumers, and the ways in which they reach out to their markets.     

State Collapse as Business: The Role of Conflict Trade and the Emerging Control Agenda

This article examines the role played by conflict trade in the process of state collapse. Conflict trade is defined here as the trade in non–military goods such as diamonds, timber and drugs that finances war. Such trade includes both the export and import of goods to a war zone as well as extra–territorial trade undertaken by supporters of a warring faction. It is argued that the decline of superpower military aid coupled with the broader effects of centre–periphery exploitation mediated through a neo–liberal and western imposed version of globalization has meant such trade has a particular salience both in contemporary conflict and the process of state collapse. Equally, though, the reliance of warring factions on conflict trade means they are also susceptible to changes in the market for their goods, creating a vulnerability that can (and to some extent has been) exploited to promote peace. The emerging control agenda on conflict trade is currently characterized by a number of problems — most notably, the risk that the control of conflict trade might become a substitute for action on arms exports; that international action has largely been undertaken within an inappropriate statist paradigm; that control has sometimes taken second place to economic or strategic interests and that policy has become hostage to a ‘drugs and thugs’ agenda which risks undermining its effectiveness.     

中俄双边旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究

以1998-2011年中俄两国旅游与贸易数据为基础,利用格兰杰因果关系检验发现俄国出境旅游是进出口贸易的单向格兰杰原因,中国进出口贸易是出境旅游的单向格兰杰原因。旅游与贸易互动关系研究结果表明:俄国出境旅游对进出口中国贸易均有着明显的推动作用,并对进口贸易的推动作用要明显强一些;中国进出口贸易对出境俄旅游都有明显的促进作用,进口贸易的促进作用要略强一点。俄罗斯断面看,占中国入境旅游比对对华贸易依存度有一定影响;中国断面看,中国对俄贸易依存度对出境俄旅游偏好和占俄入境旅游比影响均较大。两国旅游与贸易的互动性差异特征分析能为两国双边旅游与贸易良性互动发展提供相应参考。     

The Saga of the ‘Second industrial divide’ and the history of the ‘third Italy’: Evidence from export data

The idea of the Third Italy has achieved an iconic status in geography. It has come to represent one of the main geographical manifestations of the so‐called second industrial divide between Fordist mass production and flexible specialisation. Yet the idea has received limited critical attention since acquiring its elevated status. It deserves to do so, because it involves confusing a localised model of economic development with the economic character of a larger geographic region. Examining province level export data for the years 1985, 1991, 1995 and 1999 for both total exports and two key sectors using exploratory spatial data analysis, provincial rankings and LISAs (local indicators of spatial association) suggests that the export‐based homogeneity and dynamism of the Third Italy can be exaggerated. Italy's urban hierarchy, particularly the centrality of Milan, continues to play a significant role in the Italian economy. Common use of the term ‘Third Italy’ confuses an economic process with a specific geographical configuration.