The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

The return of cities: the trajectory of Swiss cities from demographic loss to reurbanization

ABSTRACT

Reurbanization refers to the new demographic growth of cities that previously lost population. How can we explain such a trend reversal? This paper discusses theoretically both phases of urban decline and reurbanization. It examines the trajectory of Swiss cities that have moved from a period of decline (1970–2000) to a new growth (since 2000). It analyses the components behind the population evolution, discusses the socio-cultural, economic and political trends triggering or enabling reurbanization, and identifies three main results. First, reurbanization is due to several population groups: the growing international mobility of the labour force, the increasing number of non-family households (in the context of the second demographic transition) and the growing attractiveness of cities for young adults (extension of youth as a life stage). Second, reurbanization is not only housing-led (construction of dwellings due to planning strategies and real estate activities). It is also population-led: A generation replacement induces a rejuvanation of the age structure and an increase in the density of occupancy of dwellings. Third, reurbanization can be broadly interpreted as a return of cities in terms of residential aspirations, political agenda and real estate activities. As a conclusion, I outline a research agenda on reurbanization.     

城市收缩现象、过程与问题

城市并不总是增长。在人口峰值过去后人口收缩将是部分城市面临的一个不可避免的趋势。这将是我国和全球城市发展的新议题。根据国际上的最新进展,阐释了收缩城市的概念、起源和影响因素,描述了城市收缩的过程及表现,介绍了国外城市的应对措施;指出国内研究主要还集中于资源型城市的衰退方向;强调城市收缩作为客观的城市发展过程,具有不可避免性,也有别于城市衰退,需要更加客观科学地对待。初步介绍和探讨了国外城市在人口减少时采取的城市规划和管理方法,包括如何通过公众参与、产业转型生态环境保护、土地利用规划调整和交通住房改造等措施,来促进城市发展和提高居民生活质量,为我国的城市发展和转型提供有益启示。     

我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角

当前,世界上一些城市的收缩现象逐渐得到关注,但是我国城市是否呈现收缩现象,以及城市收缩的空间特征和主导因素等仍缺乏系统的分析。基于此,基于地级市尺度的人口、劳动力、经济、空间扩张和财政状况等数据,建立综合评价体系测度城市收缩现象,并建立回归模型理解城市收缩的影响因素。研究发现,我国一些城市开始呈现收缩,而东北、中部等城市比较明显。在影响因素上,劳动力、经济增长和就业规模有助于促进城市增长,而空间扩张、失业和财政收支状况等会加剧城市收缩。应谨慎判别不同城市收缩的特征和影响因素,强化复兴导向的城市化策略。     

基于遥感数据的中亚五国城市时空扩展变化研究

借助遥感与GIS技术,以1990年LandsatTM和2000年Landsat ETM+遥感影像为数据来源,提取中亚5国首都城市建设用地信息。计算1990年和2000年中亚5国首都城市的城市扩展强度、城市年扩展速率及城市形状紧凑度,对中亚地区五国城市扩展的时空变化进行定量分析。结果表明:1990年和2000年,中亚5国首都城市扩展强度指数和城市扩展速度差距较大,其中阿什哈巴德的扩展强度指数和城市扩展速度最大,分别为0.93、4.6,而最小的是杜尚别,分别只有0.001、2.6,二者相差悬殊。而紧凑度变化幅度不大,2000年,杜尚别、塔什干的紧凑度较大,分别为0.6、0.46,其城市结构更为紧凑,用地集约程度增大,而阿斯塔纳、比什凯克和阿什哈巴德城市结构相对较为松散。同时,中亚五国首都城市空间向外扩张、向内填充的强度、方向各不相同,从而呈现出各自的扩展特点。     

矿业城市生命周期与空间结构演进规律研究

在对矿业经济和城市发展生命周期判定的基础上,选取石油城市大庆、有色金属城市金昌、煤炭城市大同等典型矿业城市作为研究样本,梳理矿业城市发展生命周期,重点研究矿业城市空间结构有序化演进的一般规律。文章认为矿业城市经历"矿业经济-新型制造业-综合性"的完整发展过程,城市空间结构对应整体演进过程也呈现出"矿业经济的点状离散-新型制造业的分区极化-综合性城市的多组团圈层"的阶段性特征。在矿业经济时期内部又呈现"导入期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期/转型期",且对应不同阶段在城市人口、职能、经济结构等方面均呈现不同的特点。矿业城市空间演进整体上体现出"矿业经济是空间发展的初期主导,空间结构随城市职能的升级而演变,空间作用呈现集聚与分散的交替"的有序化发展规律。     

都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001-2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。     

Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis

Population decline is a key contemporary demographic challenge. Previous work has measured the national extent of population decline, and we know that it is more acute in Japan and Eastern Europe and is set to accelerate across many industrialized countries. Yet, little is known about the population trajectories leading to current trends of depopulation and their underpinning demographic and contextual factors. To address this gap, we aim to identify and characterize the different trajectories of depopulation in Spain from 2000 to 2020 at the small area level using sequence analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, decomposition techniques, and multinomial logistic modeling. We show that while Spain recorded an overall 17.2% national population growth between 2000 and 2020, 63% of municipalities experienced depopulation. We identify six trajectories of population decline, with a well-defined northwest-south divide. These trajectories include mostly rural municipalities, but also certain small- and medium-sized cities. Natural decline comprises the main demographic component underpinning differences in the extent of depopulation across trajectories, and international migration plays an important role in explaining transitions to decline since the financial crisis of 2008. Small and old populations, and, to a lesser extent, remoteness from cities are key features characterizing areas of high decline.     

环南海国家及地区人口城市化特征与空间格局演变

环南海国家及地区既是海上丝绸之路建设发展的重要地带枢纽,也是进行国际合作的重要平台,由于区域内自然条件、社会经济基础和城市发展阶段等存在不同,其内部城市化过程与城市体系格局存在较大差异。本文基于1960—2020年环南海地区国家和主要城市层面等多尺度的人口数据,利用城市首位度指数与城市空间基尼系数两个指标,结合核密度等空间分析方法,对环南海国家及地区的人口城市化与空间格局的时空演化特征进行实证研究。研究表明：第一,环南海国家及地区大部分进入城市化发展后期,但区域内部城市化发展出现较大差异,越南、柬埔寨的城市化落后于其他国家（地区）;第二,区域内城市体系空间结构以强单中心结构为主,双（多）中心结构的国家及地区较少,城市体系内部发展不平衡,城市规模分布以首位分布居多;第三,主要城市人口空间集聚现象显著,且还有进一步集聚发展的倾向。本研究揭示了环南海国家及地区的城市发展过程和分布规律,对推进“21世纪海上丝绸之路”南海航线建设和中国—东盟自由贸易区建设具有重要的科学意义。     

Smart growth strategies,transportation and urban sprawl: simulated futures for Hamilton,Ontario

North American cities have undergone dramatic changes over the last century. Locations that were once inconvenient have become accessible through extensive road networks leading to population decentralization from the traditional urban centre to suburbia, creating polycentric sprawls from once monocentric communities. Hamilton, Ontario is one such city. The decentralization and urban decline of the city is widely attributed to sprawling development. This change in the sociospatial structure creates challenges for transportation planners as we see greater automobile dependency, greater commuting distances and increased congestion. Smart growth policies such as urban residential intensification (URI) aim to increase population densities in the urban core. This exploratory study estimates the benefits of such policies from a transportation aspect. It is predicted that the City of Hamilton will experience household growth of approximately 80,000 households over the period 2005–2031. Using IMULATE, an integrated urban transportation and land‐use model, a variety of development scenarios model this anticipated growth. Changes in vehicular emissions, traffic congestion and energy consumption as a result of URI are examined. Models of the land‐use/transportation relationship demonstrate how increasing population densities within a city's urban centre drastically reduce congestion, emissions and gasoline consumption.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

Spatial Inequality Between and Within Urban Areas: The Case of Israeli Cities

Central areas enjoy greater efficiency in the production of goods and services than do outlying areas. Because of the inherent advantages of central areas over outlying areas, disparities among regions do not vanish over time. On the contrary, centripetal forces increase inequalities across space. The phenomena of increased globalization, trade liberalization and treaties among countries not only enable the flow of labour, products (export) and foreign direct investment but also help reduce spatial inequality between countries. These phenomena also induce greater spatial economic concentration within a country. Thus, although disparities among countries decrease, a widening gap is observed between regions within countries and within large urban areas. In the empirical part, we analyse the general patterns of spatial inequality found among 55 localities in Israel with population size over 20,000. Looking at the spatial inequality relationship, both within and between cities in Israel, we show how all economic indicators measured, including inequality, decrease with distance from the core. Localities in the periphery that experience greater equality also experience lower average income, lower education, less self-employment and more unemployment.     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

Urban Sámi Identities in Scandinavia: Hybridities,Ambivalences and Cultural Innovation

One of the most significant social and cultural changes in the northern part of Scandinavia, as in other parts of the world, is urbanization. All over the northern region, towns and cities are growing, and a large portion of the indigenous population now lives in urban areas throughout all Scandinavian countries. Within these multicultural cities, urban Sámi communities are emerging and making claims to the cities. From a situation where migration from a Sámi core area to a city was associated with assimilation, an urban Sámi identity is now in the making. In this article, we discuss what seems to be the emergence of an urban Sámi culture. The article builds on findings from a study of urban Sámi and their expression of identity in three cities with the largest and fastest-growing Sámi populations in the region: Tromsø (Norway), Umeå (Sweden) and Rovaniemi (Finland). A main finding is the increasing recognition of their status as indigenous people and the growth in Sámi institutions in the cities. Another finding is an urban Sámi culture in the making, where new expressions of Sámi identity are given room to grow, but where we also find ambivalences and strong links and identifications to places in the Sámi core districts outside of the cities.     

Decline and sprawl: an evolving type of urban development – observed in Liverpool and Leipzig1

Much of the empirical research on urban sprawl has been carried out in North America and most theoretical studies on this problem have been concerned with expanding urban areas. This study differs, firstly in that it is concerned with sprawl in two European cities, Liverpool in England and Leipzig in Germany, and secondly because both these cities are in decline. This presents an opportunity to explore whether the process of urban sprawl is somehow specific in a situation of urban decline and what its outcomes might be for both urban form and urban policy.     

Beyond Kuznets: Inequality and the size and distribution of cities

As countries develop the percentage of population living in urban areas tends to increase. As this happens, inequality is expected first to increase and then to decline in what is known as the Kuznets inverted‐U. But the literature has not paid much attention to differences in the absolute size of cities potentially affecting economy‐wide inequality. Building on insights from the urban economics literature, this paper studies the relationship between the size and distribution of cities and income inequality at country level. Results show that beyond Kuznets’ hypothesis there is a U‐shaped relationship between average city size and inequality; inequality first falls and then increases with average city size. This result is robust to a long list of controls, different estimation techniques, and identification strategies.     

An Approach to Urban Dynamics

Spatial cycles that are general to the urbanization process have been widely observed in the developed countries. These include (a) the decline of large agglomerations and the emergence of medium-sized municipalities, and (b) population decreases in the core and population increases in the suburban parts of the metropolitan area, followed later by contrasting increases in the core and decreases in the suburbs. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model for such spatial cycles of the urbanization process as those mentioned above. Based on this model, we ascertain some general characteristics of these cycles of urban dynamics. From our findings, we can propose a long-term strategy for the urbanization process.     

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN A DECLINING REGION: THE CASE OF SAARLAND

We increasingly understand the causes of population decline: these can be, among others, processes of deindustrialization, decreasing fertility or the succession of a city through the stages of urban life as the city matures. However, we are still insufficiently able to explain why differences still exist between cities within regions experiencing the same macro‐processes and between cities of the same “level of maturity”. This research addresses this intra‐regional differentiation in population development in the declining former mining region of Saarland (Germany). Quantitative and qualitative analysis reveals that the differentiation in current decline stems from (1) the differentiated population development trajectories of the past, with a massive population boom followed by an aged and declining population in the industrial municipalities; and (2) the spatial distribution of amenities over the region; and (3) the spatial distribution and accessibility of housing opportunities steering migration flows. The latter are not necessarily concentrated in those areas that are attractive. Rather, the distribution of these housing opportunities strictly follows the planning logic of the supra‐local institutional framework, with a concentration of housing within easy access of major transportation infrastructure and in larger centres. The case study thus reveals that the mechanisms behind this intraregional differentiation are much more complex than often portrayed in the urban development and decline debate.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

理解中国城市生活方式：基于时空行为的研究框架

面对以人为核心的城市研究与规划需求,如何理解城市居民的日常生活并分析城市空间与居民生活方式之间的互动关系就显得尤为重要。转型期背景下,受到制度与市场双重力量的驱动,中国城市生活方式表现出特殊性。本文从生活方式理论、时间地理学和活动分析法的理论基础出发,分析生活方式与时空行为的关系,指出从行为角度进行生活方式研究的可行性;提出基于时空行为变量测度生活方式的指标体系,将出行模式、与城市空间的关系和日程安排作为度量生活方式的核心指标;并构建了生活方式的影响机制分析框架,提出制度、技术、地理背景和社会关系是影响生活方式的主要因素,为更好的理解中国城市社会空间与居民生活提供有效途径。