Multipolar governance and global imbalances

The deficiency of financial regulation and the presence of large macroeconomic global imbalances should be considered complementary interpretations of the global economic and financial crisis. The risk we face is that a new expansionary phase will bring back large and growing external imbalances, which will keep world growth on an unsustainable path. At the international level there is a classical ‘collective action’ problem to address since if export growth oriented strategies are pursued by all major countries they will generate a deflationary bias in world demand. This article explores how multilateral cooperation and international institutions can become reengaged with, and provides a meaningful device for addressing, these new issues and problems. It is necessary to restore shared rules of the game for international macroeconomic adjustment. This means endorsing a strengthened surveillance regime for the IMF in order to induce more compatible macroeconomic policies. In this regard, the IMF should have enforcement rule incentives and mechanisms, otherwise we are going to repeat past negative experiences where peer pressure did not produce significant results.     

Transatlantic triage? European and UK ‘grand strategy’ after the US rebalance to Asia

Transition in the Middle East, the ongoing effects of the global financial crisis and the United States' rebalance to Asia are key trends that will have an impact on transatlantic relations and European defence. As US priorities shift, a common European ‘grand strategy’ could encourage the development of a shared vision to help Europe order its priorities and begin to respond to the new, post‐austerity context of world politics and shrinking defence budgets. Will these changes be enough to quicken Europe's currently shrivelled strategic thinking? In any scenario, given its relative weight and role as an interlocutor with the US, the United Kingdom will remain vital to any developing European security and strategy agenda, although its broader relations with the European Union will complicate this relationship. How it proceeds will also help to define the boundaries of this nascent European security order. This article charts these key global trends, relates them to current debates in European security and strategy and maps opportunities and constraints faced by Europe and the UK in developing a grand strategy in an increasingly ‘American‐lite’ European neighbourhood.     

Financial crises and the balance of power in international finance, 1890–2010

Has the centre of gravity of international finance irreversibly started to shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific since the financial debacle of 2007-2008? This article discusses this highly topical question in a historical perspective, by considering previous changes in the balance of power in international finance and the role played by global financial in these changes. Particular attention is paid to the Baring Crisis of 1890, the American Panic of 1907, the financial crisis of July -August 1914, the banking crises of the Great Depression of the 1930s, the financial instability of the early 1970s and the ensuing banking failures, the International Debt Crisis of 1982, and the Japanese Banking Crisis of 1997-8. The article concludes that financial crisis, perhaps surprisingly, did not lead to clear changes in the balance of power in international finance; and that the financial debacle of 2007-8 is unlikely, in the medium-term, to fundamentally alter the current order.     

Emissions Trading,New Enclosures and Eco‐Social Contestation

Abstract: The central operating strategy within the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and most of the advanced capitalist world's environmental policy is to address climate change through the market mechanism known as emissions trading. Based upon government issuance and private trading of emissions reductions credits and offsets, this approach quickly rose to $135 billion in annual trading. But in the wake of the collapse of climate negotiations in Copenhagen and a world financial crisis which undermined market faith in derivative investments, carbon trading has an uncertain future. Linkages between deep‐rooted financial market and emissions market problems are revealing in spatio‐temporal terms, especially in the context of a deeper overaccumulation crisis and investors’ desperate need for new speculative outlets. It is in the nexus of the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon financing amidst resistance to “new enclosures” by adversely affected peoples, that broader‐based lessons for global/local environmental politics and climate policy can be learned.     

危机事件下中国入境旅游的受损格局与影响机制研究

本文基于计量经济学模型及统计分析方法,以1991~2011年中国入境旅游相关数据为基础,探究金融危机等事件下中国入境旅游的受损格局与影响机制.研究发现:(1) 各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数均出现2010年恢复效果明显、2011年恢复效果较弱的特征,但受损幅度差异很大,恢复状况也不尽相同.截至2011年底,各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数均未恢复至预测水平.(2) 各客源国或地区收入水平、自身价格和替代价格的变化量,与各客源国或地区到中国旅游人数的减少量具有长期协整关系.收入水平、自身价格和替代价格的变化最终导致了入境旅游人数的减少.游客在考虑到中国旅行时,个人收入成为大部分客源国或地区游客的主要决定因素,自身价格和替代价格的影响效果也不可忽视.     

Anthropology in the financial crisis

This editorial considers the opportunities opened up for anthropologists by the financial crisis of 2008. The chief of these is the exposure of cracks in the intellectual hegemony of free-market economics which contributed to an unnecessarily defensive posture on the part of most anthropologists during the period of neoliberal globalization. The authors claim that anthropology can bridge the gap between everyday life and the world at large by combining the study of ideas and social actions. We draw on Ortiz's research among financial professionals to show how working practices informed by economic liberalism can have extremely unequal consequences for the global distribution of resources. The perspectives of Mauss and Polanyi on political economy can help us to make sense of the current situation and to recommend a path forward beyond market fundamentalism. Their general ideas lend power to the concrete findings of field research. The mask of neoliberal ideology has been ripped from the politics of world economy. Anthropology's highest mission is to start from where people are and go with them wherever they take you. What better time to follow this imperative than when the model the world has been compelled to live by for three decades is in such disarray?     

国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展的影响研究

国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业影响的传导机制是什么？对其影响进行科学分析与预测的指标是什么？其影响的状况与特点是什么？其影响的趋势及我国的对策又是什么？本文运用国际经济学与旅游经济学原理,收集分析世界经济与世界国际旅游业发展的统计资料,对具有代表性的旅行社、旅游饭店与旅游景区点进行调查研究,同时对我国国际化程度最高的世界著名旅游城市香港进行比较研究,从而回答上述问题。本文的主要内容包括：（1）国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展影响的传导机制与分析预测指标的构建与验证;（2）国际金融危机对世界国际旅游业发展影响的现状、特征与趋势,以及我国的对策研究。     

Money Games: Currencies and Power in the Contemporary World Economy

Abstract: A well‐known cliché has it that “money makes the world go round” Certainly, monetary arrangements, specifically exchange‐rate mechanisms, can serve to show the degree to which markets and states intersect to direct the workings of the world economy. It is common to assume that the singular model over recent decades has been a neoliberal one based on independent floating exchange rates. I challenge this assumption by showing that a number of different combinations of money and power have operated in the recent past, creating a number of distinctive “money games”. Only one of these, the globalist/transnational, is facing a particularly severe crisis. The others, what I term the classic/territorial, integrative/shared, and imperialist/substitute provide available alternatives. The recent history, geographical features, and future prospects of the various money games are the main concerns of the essay. The analysis welcomes the recent financial crisis as providing an opportunity to further pluralize political‐economic visions beyond the perceived dominant one‐size‐fits‐all neoliberal ideology of the globalist regime.     

International order after the financial crisis

The Great Recession has brought a structural break in international economic and political order. The geography of power is at present being dramatically transformed, notably by the rapid economic rise of China. What makes international order legitimate in a world in which political and economic foundations are rapidly shifting? This article examines analogies and lessons from a previous transition, from a world order centered on Britain, to a US dominated global order. That transition saw two moments of crisis, or turning points, the 1931 financial crisis at the height of the Great Depression, and the diplomatic and military catastrophe of Suez. The article looks at two interpretations of the transition, one by E. H. Carr focusing on the destruction in the Great Depression of a liberal economic and political order and its replacement by a world of brutal Great Power politics; the other by Charles Kindleberger, stressing the need for a benevolent hegemonic power to provide public goods for the world economy and the world political system. China is beginning to behave in the way expected of a Kindleberger hegemon, but also sees the possibilities of asserting power in a world that in the aftermath of 2008 looks much more like the chaotic and crisis‐ridden interwar period as interpreted by E. H. Carr. The challenge for the management of the new international order will lie in the ability of China to embrace the universalistic vision that underpinned previous eras of stability, in the nineteenth century and in the late twentieth century.     

Major foreign policy challenges for the next US President

President Obama has been elected to office in the United States during a crisis of confidence in America's capacity to exercise effective leadership in world afairs. National self-indulgence, greedy financial irresponsibility and an unnecessary war have discredited that leadership, a situation that has been compounded by the current global economic crisis. Added to these self-inflicted wounds, this article suggests, are two transformational developments on the world political scene. First, the 'global political awakening' to issues such as climate change, health and social inequality; and second, a shift in the distribution of global power from the West to the East. However, although this shift is occurring, it is a slow process and in the foreseeable future there is no state, or combination of states, that can replace the role America plays on the international scene. What is also clear is that without an American recovery, there will be no global recovery. The American recovery will be a monumental task. But four small, telling words—unify, enlarge, engage and pacify—summarize the essence of the needed response. There needs to be an effort to re-establish a sense of unity between America and Europe; an enlarged coalition of principal players is necessary to promote more effective global management; dialogue engaging a wider circle of partners key to global geopolitical stability should be promoted and maintained; and a deliberate effort not to get bogged down politically and militarily in the Middle East is essential.     

Crises all around: Do recent predicaments and their responses imperil ‘neoliberalism’?

The announcement of a record trade surplus for Norway in 2022, and a proposal to create a guarantee fund for investments in renewable energy for Ukraine, Europe and beyond, indicate how the economic and financial situation of the Norwegian state is intimately linked to the predicaments or crises that pertain to the contemporary world. While these phenomena at first glance appear legible in terms of neoliberalism, the article sketches how they instead concern a longstanding history and experience, where commercial corporations, financial markets and private profits are deployed for public benefit. While these dynamics suggest that neoliberalism never was relevant for the Norwegian context, the ascendancy of similar notions and practices elsewhere raises the question of whether current predicaments and their policy responses also spell a crisis for this analytic. Is it time to let the concept go?     

东南亚华人企业融资模式初探

本文认为东南亚华人企业的融资模式是一种严重依赖于商业银行贷款和存在大量关系型融资的间接融资模式。形成这种融资模式最重要的两个因素 ,一是东南亚各国的间接融资体制 ,二是华人企业本身的家族治理结构。金融危机后的华人企业将会逐渐减少关系型融资、增加直接融资 ,以使其融资模式更加合理。     

阿以冲突的现状、成因及出路

巴勒斯坦地区的阿以冲突历久不息,加剧了世界政治与民族关系危机,因此认识其冲突的根源和解决的途径,已成为世人关注的问题,成为研究阿拉伯和以色列问题的认识前提。鉴于出自实际考察的研究不是很多,即便有一定论著也多从官方视角出发,难以触及当地社会现实的底层,所以本文试图在这方面做一补充,从长期的社会底层观察和思考中总结阿以冲突的症结所在,以裨读者对这一国际政治焦点问题的具体形势获得正确理解。     

金融危机与日本业内规制演进分析

日本金融市场上历次出现的金融危机,暴露了日本金融规制体系存在的问题,也影响了金融业规制政策的重点和发展方向。1927年昭和银行危机后实施的对策为“护送舰队”式规制提供了前提。日本的泡沫经济、1997年的亚洲金融危机对规制产生了影响,2007年由美国爆发的金融危机及其引发的全球金融海啸,影响了日本金融业规制的发展。日本金融业规制在金融危机的影响下,从限制竞争的“事前规制”演进到注重健全经营的“事后规制”,目前正向“事前规制”与“事后规制”相结合的以防范系统性风险为目的的保护性规制体系演进。     

世界性与民族性的奏鸣——读《夏鼐日记》之三

夏鼐先生成长于一个提倡以科学和实业救国的时代,科学救国的志向激励着年轻的夏先生远渡重洋。海外求学的经历使夏先生系统学习了西方的科学和文化,培养和具备了世界性的胸襟和视野。但中国从民族危亡走向民族独立和民族自强的艰难历程,又使夏先生的思想意识中带有民族性的维度。世界性与民族性贯穿在夏先生一生的学术追求和学术活动中,彼此交织。     

Creative destruction: Efficiency,equity or collapse? (Respond to this article at http://www.therai.org.uk/at/debate)

Around the globe, unemployment and sub employment have risen, salaries are frozen, homes are being repossessed, economic inequality continues, and many are experiencing heightened emotional distress. We have heard many explanations for this economic and social mess. But the current crisis should make us question the standard narratives, which failed to predict it and now offer ambiguous solutions. I argue that the crisis represents a tectonic shift in material life that calls for rethinking our image of economy. Because the normal discourse of economics does not explain this world of contradictions, ironies, and unpredictability, perhaps anthropology's moment has arrived. I offer a sketch of the contemporary situation based on a vision of economy as a combination of value domains and the impact of growing specialization, beginning in the workplace and reaching to new financial instruments. If the idea of the growing division of tasks in markets has been a central thread in economics since Adam Smith, its counterpart in anthropology has been the assumption of value diversity within and between cultures.     

Scaling health and healthcare: re‐presenting Thailand's HIV/AIDS epidemic with world regional geography students

Authors of world regional geography textbooks have recently become more interested in the broader theoretical changes that have emerged in human geography. Relying on feminist and other critical perspectives, concepts such as space, place and scale are being re‐imagined in this ‘new world regional geography’. This paper intervenes on behalf of a more critical world regional geography by suggesting how world regional geography teachers can educate students about scale as a social construction through the use of empirical data. Relying on fieldwork conducted in Thailand, this paper lays out a lesson on the HIV/AIDS crisis and how different representations of that crisis, from the national to the individual, offer different ‘ways of knowing’ the epidemic. Furthermore, this paper examines how we can push students to consider the ways in which scales of analysis are constructed and constituted through our own geographic practices.     

Precarious Debt: Microfinance Subjects and Intergenerational Dependency in Cambodia

This paper tells a story of debt within a rural Cambodian family in order to understand how microfinance produces more‐than‐individual financial subjects that are entangled in changing social relations of dependency. We draw upon 20 months of joint ethnographic research in Cambodia, where the microfinance industry is one of the largest per capita in the world. Informed by Judith Butler's notions of precariousness and precarity, we argue that even in the context of deepening financialisation, people's lives remain dependent upon others, especially within families. We analyse how these family relations of dependency are reworked along generational lines and spatially stretched due to precarious economic conditions of indebtedness, household migration, and distant labour markets. We conclude that reframing financial subjectivity in terms of precariousness helps us to analyse the relationship between households and financial markets, as well as inform a critical politics of finance.     

A Bretton Woods moment? The 2007–2008 crisis and the future of global finance

The 2007–2008 global financial crisis encouraged speculation about the prospects for a ‘Bretton Woods moment’ in which the global financial system would be radically redesigned. Many of those hoping for this outcome have since become disillusioned with the limited nature of the international financial reform agenda. But the success and innovation of the Bretton Woods conference was made possible by unique political conditions that are not present today, notably concentrated power in the state system; a transnational expert consensus; and wartime conditions. Moreover, a close reading of history reveals that the Bretton Woods system did not emerge from a single moment but rather from a much more extended historical process. If a new international financial system is being born today, it will be a slower and more incremental development process that can be divided into four phases: a legitimacy crisis; an interregnum; a constitutive phase; and an implementation phase. Viewed from this perspective, post‐crisis developments look more significant. The crisis of 2007–2008 has already intensified twin legitimacy crises relating to international financial policy and leadership. It has also generated an international reform initiative that has been unusual for its speed and internationally coordinated nature. Many of the details of this reform initiative remain unresolved and its content and breadth are hotly contested in various ways. We thus find ourselves in more of an interregnum than a constitutive phase. It remains unclear how quickly, if at all, the latter might emerge and in what form.