耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析

将城市扩展数量管控、土地差别化管控及土地利用分区管控等多个政策方案,嵌入元胞自动机的转换规则中,进行耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析。研究结果表明：①在城市扩展过程中,伴随着生态用地面积锐减、建设用地利用效率低下及土地利用结构不合理等风险,政策管控有利于缓解上述问题;②土地政策不能扭转景观破碎化及复杂化加剧的现象,但可以抑制其趋势;③多政策同时使用可以在保护优势斑块方面产生协同效应,其效果优于单独使用三种政策,但在遏制景观破碎化和复杂化方面不能发挥单一政策所具有的最大生态效应;④土地政策的优先级为：数量管控-> 分区管控-> 差别化管控。     

Linking Agricultural Policies with Decision-Making: A Spatial Approach

Abstract

The loss of agricultural land and its implications have been of great concern in the last decade. By undertaking a spatial analysis of the appropriation of agricultural land for urban use with an overlay of population and urban data, a focus on the consequences of certain regulations on the dynamics of land-use change is explored. This is achieved by integration of data inventories of agricultural land use for Portugal, and linking this information with CORINE Land Cover data as to assess change in the Algarve. An integrated assessment of agricultural land loss follows, undermined by the consequences of urban sprawl. In this sense, this paper expands on the currently existing decrees which provide support to sustainable development in the region while providing a qualitative assessment of future roles based on ethical values and economic efficiency and offering a feasible framework for policy-makers regarding the trends of urban/agricultural dichotomy in a planning and decision-making context.     

Long-term land-use changes in small/medium-sized cities. Enhancing the general trends and local characteristics

Small and medium-sized cities represent the backbone of the European territory, promoting cohesion and an economic base for development. The study compares the spatial and temporal trajectories of land use in three small/medium-sized cities located in central Portugal, between 1958 and 2011. The cities of Viseu, Leiria and Castelo Branco were chosen because they are located in different urban sub-systems and because of the different factors that frame their alterations in land use, occupation and consequent urban development. The research evaluates the transformations, supported by indicators to explain the spatial dynamics of losses and gains and a principal component analysis compares the land-use trajectories for the three cities. The general results reveal an increase from the central part of the study areas to the periphery, contrasting with a continuous decrease of the agricultural parts, illustrating peri-urbanization and rururbanization processes. The study allows identification of the dynamics in the three analysed areas, highlighting the different rhythms of change and relating them to the particularities that exist in each city. The methodology represents an advantage for the analysis and evaluation of territorial dynamics related to land-use change, and made possible the identification of the different forces.     

The Role of an Area-oriented Approach in Achieving Environmental Policy Integration in the Netherlands,and its Applicability in Bulgaria

An integrated approach to environmental policy and urban spatial planning has not yet been adopted by many local administrations in Europe. However, such integration is likely to provide a more streamlined planning process that incorporates environmental measures in the physical development of urban areas. In this paper, we argue that among many local governments there is already a growing wish to apply environmental policy integration (EPI) principles in spatial planning in an effort to achieve better quality of life in the cities and to preserve natural resources. Within Europe, most attempts to develop EPI approaches can be found in western countries, while efforts to find integrated approaches to the urban environment and spatial planning in Eastern Europe are in their infancy. The main reason for this is that most of the post-communist countries are still addressing the challenge of reconstructing their political, social, and economic systems. In this research, we analyse and compare policy practices for EPI in urban planning in the Netherlands and Bulgaria. We first discuss the Dutch area-oriented policy approach, which has gained popularity during the last decade as a means of integrating environmental qualities in urban land use plans. We then go on to analyse the effectiveness of specific area-oriented methods developed and applied in Rotterdam, and define their applicability in the planning practice of the local authorities of the city of Burgas in Bulgaria. The main conclusion of the study is that the degree of effectiveness of an area-oriented policy is dependent on the impact of specific success factors. Despite the differences between Rotterdam and Burgas in terms of the presence of these success factors, we assert that the area-oriented policy approach applied in Rotterdam can be transferable, and can be adapted to the specific local circumstances in Burgas and used as an instrument for integrating EPI into urban land use planning.     

INTRODUCTION: PROCESSES OF CHANGE IN URBAN SYSTEMS*

ABSTRACT The twenty‐first century will be one of intensified urbanization, on a scale never before experienced. How do urban systems and individual cities change and develop? The social sciences have many different approaches to analyzing the economic, social, and spatial dimensions of urban change. We inventory some of these approaches and their implications for public policy toward cities, urban change, and economic development.     

南京大学土地利用学科发展回顾与展望

南京大学是国内较早开展土地利用研究的高校之一。1949年后特别是改革开放以来,南京大学土地利用学科取得了突飞猛进的发展,目前已形成了一个相对完整的跨学科发展体系。经过长期的研究凝练,学科目前已逐步形成了"土地利用与规划"、"土地经济与政策"、"土地评价与整治"三个重点研究领域,并在"城市土地利用管理"和"农户土地利用行为"等方面形成了一定的研究特色。今后,南京大学将围绕"全面实现国内一流优势学科,达到国际同类研究一流水平"的目标,通过凝聚力量争取重大科研项目,引进或培养领军人物,加强重点实验室建设等战略举措,建成与国际接轨的具有南京大学特色的土地利用学科体系。     

Urban Land Restitution and the Struggle for Social Citizenship in South Africa

Reintegrating the city is a priority of social justice and development in many urban centres of the ‘South’ that bear the legacy of forced displacement. In South Africa, much of the land restitution programme has thus far focused on urban areas. In certain large cluster claims involving the transfer and development of significant tracts of well‐placed land, restitution has presented the prospect of altering landed property regimes in the heart of the city. The predominantly rural and economic emphasis in scholarship and policy debate on land reform in South Africa — which reflects historical trends in development studies — has led to a narrowed vision of what is at stake in urban land restitution. Complex interventions aimed at redressing urban spatial segregation can potentially alter the relationship between citizens, institutions and urban space in ways that expand the possibilities for social and political agency in sites that are strategically important for influencing the direction of change more broadly. A key, as yet unrealized, challenge is how to articulate such struggles for a ‘right to the city’ with efforts at redressing the spatialization of poverty on the urban periphery.     

Policy Instrument Choices for Growth Management and Land Use Regulation

What factors account for local government land use practices and their choices among specific growth management policy instruments? We apply the political market framework to examine how land use policy choices in Florida are shaped by institutional features of county governments and the demands of organizations and interests in a community. Local policy decisions reflect a balance of the conflicting interests and responses to economic and political pressures. The results demonstrate that county government structure and election rules play critical roles in the adoption of urban service boundaries, incentive zoning, and transfer of development rights programs. We report evidence consistent with the argument that these “second‐generation” growth management policies are motivated by exclusionary goals.     

转型时期的中国大都市发展

改革开放以来,中国大都市建设经历了一个快速发展的时期。由于历史、经济及文化等多方面因素,中国大都市的发展呈现出特殊的时空特征,同时也带来了诸多问题。本文对转型时期中国大都市的发展特征、影响其发展的因素和发展过程中值得注意的问题进行了系统的分析和研究,并提出了相应的对策。     

西安市城市化进程中的土地利用政策研究

本文选用城市地域扩展倍数、年平均扩展速度、土地利用效益及其变化幅度等指标,从土地利用的经济效益角度分析了西安市1992-2002年10年间城市化进程中的城市地域扩展和土地利用效益问题;以非农业人口增长、经济发展和城市建设为影响因素,预测了城市用地的未来需求量。     

新型城镇化背景下文化古镇旅游商业化用地空间格局演化——以同里为例

人地关系一直是旅游地理学研究的核心科学问题,本文探讨了同里旅游商业化用地格局演化的特征,揭示了其格局演化的驱动机制。结果表明:1同里旅游商业化先后经历了三个阶段,用地规模呈现逐步增加的态势,并呈现从核心向四周扩散的特征,用地格局整体紧凑度不高;2旅游用地空间扩展以SWW、SE、SSE、E为主导方向,拓展强度呈增大态势;3针对同里旅游商业化用地格局演变的驱动机制剖析表明,经济利益、农户行为转变、市场发展需求、级差地租及政府行为的综合驱动导致了其用地格局的空间演化。     

Prospects for the Rural‐Urban Fringe in Australia: Observations from a Brief History of the Landscapes around Sydney and Adelaide

Despite being a major site of recent population growth and, arguably, a key arena for sustainability concerns, the rural‐urban fringe has received relatively little attention in the literature concerning Australian cities and urban policy. To address this shortcoming the authors review post‐World War II efforts to plan the rural‐urban fringes of Sydney and Adelaide and find a number of issues for contemporary policy‐makers. First, the fringe is becoming increasingly complex due to multi‐faceted demographic change, a broadening economic base and demands for better environmental management, all within the context of an evolving understanding of sustainability. Second, water resource management, partly under the auspices of integrated natural resource management, is assuming a much higher priority than in early fringe planning endeavours, which emphasised urban containment, agricultural land protection and landscape conservation. Third, and partly as a consequence of this shift of priorities, there is also evidence of changes to the nature and focus of policy tools used in the fringe, with land management concerns now cutting across traditional land use planning. Finally, and fundamentally, these observations raise questions about how future governance of the fringe should be organised. Together these four themes pose an enthralling series of challenges for policy‐makers for which much more research and discussion are needed.     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

大连市建成区土地利用时空演变与动力机制分析

借助ENVI和GIS技术对大连市1990年以来遥感影像资料及空间数据进行统计分析,研究其建成区扩张的时空演变及动力机制。研究结果表明,近20年来,大连市区建设用地扩张1.34倍,以东北为主要拓展方向。1990-1995年扩张速度和扩张贡献率最大,城市空间不规则扩张;1995-2005年城市以填充式发展为主,边界逐渐规则;2005年以来进入了新一轮的建设用地扩张时期。人口增长和经济发展对建设用地扩张的驱动作用趋于弱化,政府决策行为成为主要影响因素,尤其是金州区与新城区(开发区)的建立与发展对大连市区建设用地扩张有明显的牵引和带动作用。     

经济学视野下的中国城市空间扩展

城市空间扩展是城市经济学和城市地理学研究领域的重要课题。改革开放之后,随着经济的快速发展和城市化进程的推进,中国城市的空间范围也迅速扩展。近年来关于中国城市空间对外扩展的研究成果日益增多,但现有的实证分析和理论模型,并没有揭示中国城市空间快速扩展的独特因素及其根本动力,特别是忽略了地方政府在其中发挥的关键性作用。本文以城市经济学相关理论模型为基础,结合中国体制背景,构建一个以地方政府为核心的城市经济模型,并运用该模型对中国城市空间扩展及其相关问题进行分析,认为地方政府在中国农地非农化及其土地开发中发挥决定性的作用,现实农业土地租金较低推动了城市空间的额外扩展,外部性收益使得地方政府零地价出让土地仍然有利可图,诸如铁路及其站点建设等外部条件冲击推动城市以蛙跳(飞地)方式对外扩展。     

Regional and transnational spatial planning1: problems today,perspectives for the future

This introductory contribution presents some results of the EURBANET project, dealing with European urban networks in the framework of the INTERREG IIC programme of the North‐western Metropolitan Area (NWMA). This project was conducted between 2000 and 2001 by researchers of Delft University of Technology, the University of Glasgow, the University of Dortmund, the Catholic University of Leuven and the University of Nijmegen. The central objective of the EURBANET project was to explore the role of polynucleated urban regions in the reinforcement of the competitive strength and quality of life in the NWMA, as a contribution to transnational spatial planning in the NWMA. Four polynuclear urban regions are involved: Randstad Holland, the Flemish Diamond, the RheinRuhr Area and Central Scotland (Glasgow‐Edinburgh region). One of the conclusions is that it is necessary to move between scales: from the European Union to national spatial policies (and vice versa), between national policies and regional spatial policies and between regional and urban spatial policies. At each scale, specific demands for spatial planning policies in polynuclear urban regions are becoming increasingly relevant. This is a challenge for spatial policies and policy domains like infrastructure policy, transport policy, housing policy, economic and environmental policy. We present an analysis of how polycentricity has become central to recent discussions on European and north‐west European spatial and economic planning. We launch a spatial network approach to integrate spatial policies. These wide perspectives contrast heavily with the current less satisfactory practice of spatial planning on the level of urban networks and transnational governance.     

基于空间再生产视角的西方城市空间更新解析

1970年代西方开启了向新自由主义的转型过程,城市空间的更新变迁都打上了资本积累、资本增殖的烙印。文章将西方的城市更新历程归纳为三个阶段,以空间再生产的视角揭示了城市更新的本质,指出1980年代以来鼓励公共-私人部门共同参与空间再开发成为城市更新的基本特征。文章归纳了西方城市更新的三种模式,并对其经济社会绩效进行了评估,深度解读了其动力机制。最后,文章提出了对中国城市更新的基本判断。     

Actors,Decisions and Policy Changes in Local Urbanization

Land-use policies have long been recognized as important driving forces of urbanization, but little research has been conducted on the interrelationship of actors, policy decision processes and changes in the built environment. In this paper, we use the advocacy coalition framework to analyse policy decisions that affected the development of the built environment in three Swiss municipalities between 1970 and 2007. We found that all three municipalities experienced the same major policy changes, namely a new definition of the role of urban management (1970s); the adoption of an environment- and problem-oriented approach in land-use planning (1980s) as well as an increased emphasis on public participation and intra-municipal coordination (1990s). Although national laws and actors have shaped the crucial driving forces of urban change, local actors, their coalitions and the local distribution of resources crucially determined these decisions in the study period. Our findings suggest that a stronger focus on local actors, their coalitions and resources could greatly improve our understanding of spatial development processes in Switzerland. For instance, as land ownership turned out to be a crucial resource, Swiss municipalities could benefit from engaging more actively in the land market.     

基于GWR模型的合肥居住地价影响因素研究

以合肥市主城区为例,基于2010-2014年居住用地的出让数据,运用地统计法、GWR模型等方法,对合肥市居住地价的空间异质性及其影响因素进行研究。研究表明：①合肥市居住地价的空间分布呈现出显著的多中心的空间结构,地价的峰值区分别以老城区、政务区天鹅湖及滨湖新区塘西河公园为中心呈现圈层式分布;②不同的地价影响因素表现出不同的空间分布特征,其中容积率对居住地价的贡献度空间差异最大,其次是宗地面积,主干路次之,交通站点对居住地价的贡献度最小;③厘清各影响因素对地价的作用机制,建立动态的数字地价模型,不仅能促进土地资源的集约利用,重塑城市的空间结构,而且能为城市整体价值的发挥提供重要的理论支撑。     

中国城镇土地非均衡扩张路径与治理策略研究

用经济学中的资源配置理论解释城镇土地非均衡扩张,根据城镇土地扩张的机理不同,把城镇土地分为工业用地、居住用地、基础设施用地,并分别考察了其非均衡扩张路径,在此基础上,从"制度环境-政绩目标-政策工具"三方面提出了非均衡扩张的治理策略。结果认为:招商引资过程中竞相以低地价供地导致了工业用地非均衡扩张;对土地财政的过分追逐导致了居住用地非均衡扩张;地方政府为攫取政治晋升资本,大兴城市基础设施建设导致了基础设施用地非均衡扩张;为系统控制城镇土地非均衡扩张,应在"制度环境-政绩目标-政策工具"三个层次上制定相关治理策略。