Seismic Reliability of Code-Conforming Italian Buildings

ABSTRACT

This paper presents and discusses some research results related to the seismic failure risk of standard, residential and industrial, buildings designed for damage, and life-safety according to the Italian seismic code, which is somewhat similar to Eurocode 8. The five considered structural typologies are as follows: masonry, cast-in-place reinforced concrete, precast reinforced concrete, steel, and base-isolated buildings. The archetype structures have been designed according to standard practice at three sites, representative of the seismic hazard across the country. Seismic risk is defined here as the annual rate of earthquakes able to cause structural failure in terms of usability-preventing damage and global collapse. For each structure, the failure rates have been evaluated in the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering, that is, via integration of site’s probabilistic hazard and structural fragility. The former has been computed consistently with the official hazard model for Italy that is also used to define design actions in the code. The latter has been addressed via nonlinear dynamic analysis of three-dimensional numerical structural models. Results indicate that, generally, design procedures are such that seismic structural reliability tends to decrease with increasing seismic hazard of the building site, despite the homogeneous return period of exceedance of the design seismic ground-motion.     

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of the Urban Building Environment in Nablus,Palestine

ABSTRACT

This article describes a specifically developed framework to produce a seismic physical vulnerability model of residential buildings in Nablus (Palestine) within the European project SASPARM2.0. Based on the structural taxonomy of the territory, two different forms were defined to collect geometrical and structural data of buildings by different stakeholders (citizens and practitioners). This data was then employed to produce fragility curves using the mechanics-based procedure SP-BELA. To estimate seismic risk, the developed fragility model was combined with a hazard curve for the corresponding location. The described procedure is implemented in a WebGIS platform that allows to georeference and assess the surveyed buildings and define retrofitting strategies. Finally, the article carries out a comparison between the fragility curves of buildings in Nablus and the ones calculated for similar building typologies within a UNDP Jordan project aiming at the integrated risk assessment in Wadi Musa and surroundings.     

Development of Probabilistic Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Assessment of Structures Considering Residual Deformations

Recently, the importance of considering residual (permanent) deformations in the performance assessment of structures has been recognized. Advanced structural systems with re-centering properties as those based on unbonded post-tensioning tendons are capable of controlling or completely eliminating residual deformations. However, for more traditional systems, which count for the vast majority of buildings, residual deformations are currently considered an unavoidable result of structural inelastic response under severe seismic shaking.

In this article, a probabilistic framework for a performance-based seismic assessment of structures considering residual deformations is proposed. The development of a probabilistic formulation of a combined three-dimensional performance matrix, where maximum and residual deformations are combined to define the performance level corresponding to various damage states for a given seismic intensity levels, is first presented. Combined fragility curves expressing the probability of exceedence of performance levels defined by pairs of maximum-residual deformations are then derived using bivariate probability distributions. The significance of evaluating and accounting for residual deformations within a Performance-based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) approach is further confirmed via numerical examples on the response of Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) systems, with different hysteretic behavior, under a selected suite of earthquake records. Joined fragility curves corresponding to various performance levels, defined as a combination of maximum and residual response parameters, are derived while investigating the effects of hysteretic systems and strength ratios. It is observed that stiffness degrading Takeda systems result in lower residual deformations than elasto-plastic systems and show lower probability of exceeding a jointed maximum-residual performance level. For a chosen performance level, Takeda systems with higher strength ratios show better performance, particularly with lower intensity of excitations.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area that has been studied lies between 50°E-60°E and 20°N-30°N and spans several Gulf countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown. A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention. The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.     

REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

Parameterized Seismic Fragility Curves for Curved Multi-frame Concrete Box-Girder Bridges Using Bayesian Parameter Estimation

This paper addresses the application of a Bayesian parameter estimation method to a regional seismic risk assessment of curved concrete bridges. For this purpose, numerical models of case-study bridges are simulated to generate multiparameter demand models of components, consisting of various uncertainty parameters and an intensity measure (IM). The demand models are constructed using a Bayesian parameter estimation method and combined with limit states to derive the parameterized fragility curves. These fragility curves are used to develop bridge-specific and bridge-class fragility curves. Moreover, a stepwise removal process in the Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to identify significant parameters affecting component demands.     

SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF RC STRUCTURES WITH THE “2000 SAC/FEMA” METHOD

The applicability of a new, fully probabilistic approach to seismic design and assessment of reinforced concrete (RC) structures is investigated. Fundamental advantages of the method are mathematical simplicity and comparatively light computational effort. The original formulation, which was developed for steel structures, is first illustrated; ah extension which allows consideration of multiple failure mechanisms, typical of RC structures, is then proposed. The applicability of the method is demonstrated through an example: the seismic risk of a four storey RC building that was not designed for seismic resistance is evaluated. Three failure mechanisms are considered: joint failure, column shear failure and drift failure.     

Bayesian Updating of Seismic Demand Models and Fragility Estimates for Reinforced Concrete Bridges with Two-Column Bents

Probabilistic models have been developed in a previous study by the authors to estimate the seismic deformation demands on structural components of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with two-column bents. However, such models should be updated to reflect the latest laboratory of field data. Using a Bayesian approach, this article updates a currently available probabilistic model for the deformation demands of columns in bridges with two-column RC bents. The updated model incorporates information from newly available experimental data from shake table tests conducted based on a record of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake for a structural system with three bents with two columns per bent. The updated model is more accurate than the previous one in predicting the deformation demand of bridges with two-column RC bents and reduces the statistical uncertainty due to the addition of new data. As an application, fragility estimates for an example bridge are computed using the updated model both at the component (column) and system (bridge) levels.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historic centers: description of a predictive method and application to the case study of scanno (Abruzzi,Italy)

ABSTRACT

In this article, a predictive model for the seismic vulnerability assessment of old Italian historic centers is presented through its direct application to a meaningful case study, the historic center of Scanno, in Abruzzi, Italy.

The proposed method is calibrated on the basis of the observations carried out on similar historic centers hit by the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake and is applied in order to provide likely damage scenarios by means of fragility curves. The method is based on the evaluation of a limited number of structural and typological parameters that can be obtained by simple and rapid inspections on buildings. In addition, it is conceived in order to provide useful information on the most effective anti-seismic strategies to be implemented on urban scale for pursuing a global mitigation of the seismic risk and for the application of suitable risk reduction policies.

The final aim of the article is to give an applicative vision of the method, by providing instructions on how to judge the features of the buildings that are influential on their seismic behavior, as well as by showing the potentiality of the method itself in providing likely damage scenarios, also with the support of GIS-based representations.     

Knowledge-Based Performance Assessment of Existing RC Buildings

One of the most challenging aspects of the seismic assessment of existing buildings is the characterization of structural modeling uncertainties. Recent codes, such as Eurocode 8, seem to synthesize the effect of structural modeling uncertainties in the so-called confidence factors that are applied to mean material property estimates. The confidence factors are classified and tabulated as a function of discrete knowledge levels acquired based on the results of specific in-situ tests and inspections. In this approach, the effect of the application of the confidence factors on structural assessment is not explicitly stated. This work presents probabilistic performance-based proposals for seismic assessments of RC buildings based on the knowledge levels. These proposals take advantage of the Bayesian framework for updating the probability distributions for structural modeling parameters based on the results of tests and inspections. As structural modeling parameters, both the mechanical material properties and also the structural detailing parameters are considered. These proposals can be categorized based both on the amount of structural analysis effort required and on the type of structural analysis performed. An efficient Bayesian method is presented which relies on simplified assumptions and employs a small sample of structural model realizations and ground motion records in order to provide an estimate of structural reliability. As an alternative proposal suitable for code implementation, the simplified approach implemented in the SAC-FEMA guidelines is adapted to existing structures by employing the efficient Bayesian method. This method takes into account the effect of both ground motion uncertainty and the structural modeling uncertainties on the global performance of the structure, in a closed-form analytical safety-checking format. These alternative proposals are demonstrated for the case study structure which is an existing RC frame. In particular, it is shown how the parameters for the safety-checking format can be estimated and tabulated as a function of knowledge level, outcome of tests, and the type of structural analysis adopted.     

Sustainability of Highway Bridge Networks Under Seismic Hazard

In order to evaluate the seismic risk of transportation networks, it is necessary to develop a methodology that integrates the probabilities of occurrence of seismic events in a region, the vulnerability of the civil infrastructure, and the consequences of the seismic hazard to the society, environment, and economy. In this article, a framework for the time-variant seismic sustainability and risk assessment of highway bridge networks is presented. The sustainability of the network is quantified in terms of its social, environmental, and economic metrics. These include the expected downtime, expected energy waste and carbon dioxide emissions, and the expected loss. The methodology considers the probability of occurrence of a set of seismic scenarios that reflect the seismic activity of the region. The performance of network links is quantified based on individual bridge performance evaluated through fragility analyses. The sustainability and risk depend on the damage states of both the links and the bridges within the network following an earthquake scenario. The time-variation of the sustainability metrics and risk due to structural deterioration is identified. The approach is illustrated on a transportation network located in Alameda County, California.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF METROPOLITAN TEHRAN,IRAN

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran, the capital of Iran. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Tehran and its vicinity in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 950 years. Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least 6 times, Tehran has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. The oldest one happened in the 4th century BC. A collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events and covering the period from the 4th century BC to 1999 is then used. Seismic sources are modelled and recurrence relationship is established. For this purpose the method proposed by Kijko [2000] was employed considering uncertainty in magnitude and incomplete earthquake catalogue. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and three weighted attenuation relationships; Ramazi [1999], 0.4, Ambraseys and Bommer [1991], 0.35, and Sarma and Srbulov [1996], 0.25. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 12×11 grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for 10% probability of exceedance in two life cycles of 50 and 100 years are presented. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.27(g) to 0.46(g) for a return period of 475 years and from 0.33(g) to 0.55(g) for a return period of 950 years. Since population is very dense in Tehran and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.     

Comparison between the Seismic Performance of Integral and Jointed Concrete Bridges

This article presents a probabilistic fragility analysis for two groups of integral and jointed concrete bridges, with varying length and column height. The results show that the integral bridges perform consistently better from a seismic perspective than the jointed bridges. Comparisons are also drawn between the seismic fragility of different geometric configurations. The results show that for integral bridges, the seismic vulnerability increases with an increase in bridge length and decreases with an increase in column height. For the jointed bridge, it was found that geometric variation in column height and bridge length does not significantly affect its seismic vulnerability.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical centers at urban scale

Seismic prevention and mitigation of historical centers have gained a central position within earthquake engineering topics, particularly in areas such as Italy, Greece, and Portugal. Many historical towns in these countries have been strongly damaged, due to the high quantity of old buildings and urban structures and infrastructures. In this article, these aspects are described, modeled, and investigated in terms of structural safety, the goal being the set-up of a comprehensive strategy for seismic prevention and mitigation of a whole historical center. The proposed approach is based on two relevant parts: the first is an urban risk assessment, the second is a prioritization of retrofitting interventions so as to optimally increase urban safety.

The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is shown with reference to a complex case study, the historical center of “Montebello di Bertona”. It is initially modeled as a series/parallel system and then studied by applying seismic reliability methods. Seismic retrofitting interventions are finally prioritized.     

Seismic vulnerability assessment methodology for slender masonry structures

ABSTRACT

Slender masonry structures such as towers, minarets, chimneys, and Pagoda temples can be characterized by their distinguished architectural characteristics, age of construction, and original function, but their comparable geometric and structural ratios yield to the definition of an autonomous structural type. These structures constitute a part of the architectural and cultural heritage. Their protection against earthquakes is of great importance. This concern arises from the strong damage or complete loss suffered by these structures during past earthquakes. Seismic vulnerability assessment is an issue of most importance at present time and is a concept widely used in works related to the protection of buildings. However, there is few research works carried out on developing the seismic vulnerability assessment tools for such structures.

This article presents a new method for assessing the seismic vulnerability of slender masonry structures based on vulnerability index evaluation method. The calculated vulnerability index can then be used to estimate structural damage after a specified intensity of a seismic event. Here, 12 parameters are defined to evaluate the vulnerability index for slender masonry structures. Implementation of this methodology is carried out in different types of slender masonry structures to develop vulnerability curves for these structure types.     

Evaluation of Seismic Risk on UNESCO Cultural Heritage sites in Europe

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes have been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of monuments throughout human history. Due to their size, conservation state, and lack of seismic provisions, monuments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of geological hazards. The first step toward the mitigation of the earthquake threat consists of understanding the existing seismic risk and evaluating possible strategies to reduce it. This study presents a simplified assessment to evaluate the probability of damage due to ground shaking on UNESCO World Heritage cultural sites throughout Europe. The seismic hazard model (SHARE) has been employed to derive hazard curves, which were combined with a fragility model to calculate the annual probability of damage or collapse. These calculations were performed assuming different soil conditions, and the resulting risk metrics can be used for risk awareness, to inform the prioritization of the sites in need of structural interventions, and to support additional risk analysis.     

A Checking Method for Multiple Seismic Performance Objectives of Bridge Piers Designed According to Code Provisions

Seismic bridge design codes require that bridge piers designed according to prescribed design rules should attain specified multiple seismic performance objectives. However, design codes do not explicitly require checking the attainment of specified performance objectives for designed bridge piers. In this article, seismic performance levels have been correlated with engineering damage parameters. A checking method for multiple seismic performance objectives of bridge piers has been outlined and validated with experimental results. The application of the method has been demonstrated by checking the performance of a bridge pier designed according to a code provision for a wide range earthquake ground motions.     

A Ground Motion Record Selection Approach Based on Multiobjective Optimization

The evaluation of the seismic safety and reliability of buildings and building contents within a probabilistic framework often requires response history analyses using site-specific ground motion records. The ground motion selection method proposed in this paper addresses this issue by a stochastic search procedure in which record sets are selected such that first- and second-order statistics (median and dispersion) satisfy predefined ground motion spectrum targets over a wide period range. Once a ground motion record set is selected, it can be used for seismic assessment of a broad class of buildings within the target period range at the given location.     

Probabilistic Calibration and Experimental Validation of the Seismic Design Criteria for One-Story Concrete Frames

This article investigates the seismic performance of one-story reinforced concrete structures for industrial buildings. To this aim, the seismic response of two structural prototypes, a cast-in-situ monolithic frame and a precast hinged frame, is compared for four different levels of translatory stiffness and seismic capacity. For these structures an incremental nonlinear dynamic analysis is performed within a Monte Carlo probabilistic simulation. The results obtained from the probabilistic analysis prove that precast structures have the same seismic capacity of the corresponding cast-in-situ structures and confirm the overall goodness of the design criteria proposed by Eurocode 8, even if a noteworthy dependency of the actual structural behavior from the prescribed response spectrum is pointed out.

The experimental verification of these theoretical results is searched for by means of pseudodynamic tests on full-scale structures. The results of these tests confirm the overall equivalence of the seismic behavior of precast and cast-in-situ structures. Moreover, two additional prototypes have been designed to investigate the seismic behavior of precast structures with roof elements placed side by side. The results of these further tests show that an effective horizontal diaphragm action can be activated even if the roof elements are not connected among them, and confirm the expected good seismic performance of these precast systems. Finally, the results of the experimental tests are compared with those obtained from nonlinear structural analyses. The good agreement between numerical and experimental results confirms the accuracy of the theoretical model and, with it, the results of the probabilistic investigation.     

Critical Assessment of Intensity Measures for Seismic Response of Italian RC Bridge Portfolios

The seismic assessment of a road network depends largely on the characterization of the fragility of its bridge components. The accuracy of bridge seismic demand estimates and the use of proper intensity measures (IM) will significantly influence such task. The available literature has mainly focused on buildings or a limited number of bridge configurations and IMs, which may not be representative for bridge portfolio assessment studies. In this paper, the correlation quality between a larger pool of traditional and innovative IMs and the nonlinear dynamic response of typical Italian RC bridges is investigated to identify the best-performing IMs.