GROUND MOTION ANALYSIS IN THE ANCHORAGE BASIN: 1-D APPROACH

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of soil in the Anchorage basin in southcentral Alaska is essential for seismic hazard assessment of this highly seismically active region. The analysis of site responses for 40 sites from weak-motion and strong-motion data with amplitudes less than 0.1 g showed a strong influence of subsurface geological conditions on the characteristics of ground motion. Particularly, the sites in the central part of the city, including the downtown area, showed prominent resonance peaks around 1 Hz with amplification values up to about 4. The numerical analysis, based on one-dimensional multi-layer soil models shows that site response characteristics, and especially aforementioned peaks, are largely related to the thick, soft layer of Quaternary deposits, particularly cohesive fades of Bootlegger Cove Formation. The computed transfer functions for soil profiles of six representative sites are in accord with the site responses in the frequency range from 1 to 5 Hz. There is no significant change in amplification values below 2 Hz corresponding to large-amplitude (up to 0.38 g) ground motions; however, above 2-3 Hz the amplification values are greatly reduced in this case.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF TOPOGRAPHIC AMPLIFICATION USING THE ISRAEL SEISMIC NETWORK

Earthquakes and microtremor records are used for estimating the site response of hard rock sites comprising four three-component seismic stations which operate as part of the Israel Seismic Network. The response functions are determined by implementing the horizontal-to-vertical component spectral ratio of earthquake shear-waves (receiver function estimates) and microtremors (Nakamura's estimate) observed simultaneously at the site. The sites of seismic stations ATZ (Mt. Atzmon), MBH (Mt. Berech) and MRNI (Mt. Meron) exhibit amplification attributed to topography effects. At ATZ, within the 1.3–2.0 Hz range, the amplification is in the order of factor 4. At MBH amplification levels of 3.0–3.5 are observed in the frequency range 1.5–4.0 Hz. Station MRNI exhibits a relatively strong amplification effect (up to 4) in the frequency range of about 2.5 to 3.5 Hz. Slight amplification around 5 Hz is observed at ATR (the proposed site for a nuclear power plant). These effects were correlated with the thickness of the weathered layer above unweathered chalk. A comparison between the amplification factor observed during earthquakes and those inferred from microtremors shows that these are, in general, in agreement. However, details of the spectral ratios from different microtremor recordings are not exactly the same. Differences appear mainly in the frequency at which the maximum amplification occurs. These observations demonstrate the usefulness of non-reference technique in estimating the topographical effects of ground shaking. These methods may be used in the process of seismic hazard assessment for ridges and mountain tops, common sites for settlements, communication relay stations, bridges, rope-drive and power transmission towers.     

EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF SITE EFFECTS BY MEANS OF H/V SPECTRAL RATIOS AT THE LOCATIONS OF STRONG MOTION ACCELEROMETERS IN ISRAEL

Acceleration data from local and regional earthquakes is of prime importance in evaluating the seismic hazard. Consequently, strong motion accelerometers are currently installed at more than 60 locations in Israel. We have explored the possibility of site amplification effects at 10 sites where local earthquakes triggered strong motion accelerometers by integrating empirical and analytical estimations. Implementing H/V spectral ratio techniques using 15 accelerograms from nine earthquakes, 105 seismograms shear-wave records of 35 local and regional earthquakes and seismograms of microtremors were used in the empirical evaluations. The subsurface models were constructed by integrating available geological and geophysical information at the analysed site with empirically evaluated site response functions. Amplification effects of factor 3-6 are observed at various frequencies in the 0.8-6.0 Hz band. Through the analysis process it became evident that the instant availability of many useful time windows of microtremors provides systematic estimations of the fundamental resonance frequency of each site and their associated amplification levels, which are similar to those obtained from H/V spectral ratios of seismograms and accelerograms and to those inferred from the subsurface geology. Analytical transfer functions should be reviewed with respect to empirical site response evaluations. Estimations that are based on only one approach may be totally misleading.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN FLORENCE CITY ITALY

A seismic hazard analysis of Florence city was performed in the frame of a project concerning the dynamic behaviour of cable-stayed bridges. Both a probabilistic approach and a methodology based on the use of a local macroseismic catalogue were applied. A local catalogue was expressly compiled for this purpose, to collect the macroseismic intensities actually observed at the site as a result of past earthquakes. This sort of catalogue is an independent tool to verify the assumptions of the probabilistic approach (seismic zoning, earthquake recurrence relation, attenuation model), though it can supply results in terms of macroseismic intensity only and reflects the effective seismic history at the site, without taking into account any variability. The Cornell' methodology was used to assess probabilistic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudovelocity uniform response spectra. The local catalogue points out level VII of the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale (MCS) as the maximum intensity historically observed in Florence. The probabilistic approach leads to the consideration of intensity VIII MCS as the maximum credible for the city. The probabilistic analysis in terms of ground motion was performed using attenuation relations estimated for alluvium sites, since the geology of Florence area is represented by fluvial and lacustrine deposits of various thickness. Peak ground acceleration values with 90% non exceedence probability in 50 and 500 years are respectively 145 and 219 cm/s's for a shallow alluvium site, and 95 and 157 cm/s's for a deep alluvium site; the corresponding peak ground velocity values for sites located on alluvium are 6.41 and 11.76 cm/s. Uniform response spectra are provided for shallow and deep alluvium sites, according to frequency-dependent attenuation relations estimated from strong Italian earthquakes.     

HINTS ABOUT SITE AMPLIFICATION EFFECTS COMPARING MACROSEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATE WITH MICROTREMOR MEASUREMENTS: THE AGRI VALLEY (ITALY) EXAMPLE

We approach from a new standpoint the problem of estimating seismic hazard for some towns and villages located in Val d'Agri area (Southern Italy) that in the past have been affected by several seismic events. The estimates are carried out using a method that is based on the analysis of site seismic history extracted from macroseismic catalogues. To study the influence of site effects two different procedures have been performed: in the first, seismic hazard estimates have been deduced from epicentral data only, in the second, intensity data actually observed at the site are also considered. The difference between the two estimates can be correlated with local variations of seismic response due to local geological features which are responsible for possible cases of amplification. In order to validate the presence of such correlation, seismic hazard estimates have been compared to site amplification measurements obtained by using the HVSR (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio) technique. Our findings reveal a good correlation between seismic hazard enhancements and the presence of site amplification effects. The application of this kind of analysis to the Val d'Agri area has pointed out that the joint estimates of site seismic hazard enhancement and HVSR measurements could be a helpful tool to identify problems related to seismic microzonation.     

Site Effects Analyses in the Old City Center of Trieste (NE Italy) Using Accelerometric Data

The influence of local geology and soil conditions on the intensity and the amplification of ground shaking are well known. Part of the old city center of Trieste is built on the site of a former salina, placed at a river mouth and is characterized by soft sediments several tens of meters thick. A new accelerometric station has been recently installed in a historical building, in order to analyse earthquake-induced site amplifications. This station has recorded five regional earthquakes and the related records are compared to those obtained at a nearby bedrock-installed accelerometeric station. Fourier and response spectra for all components are computed and both the H/V ratio and the reference station techniques are used to assess site effects. Noise measurements performed in the historical building, where the accelerometer is located, confirm these results. Relevant amplifications are detected in the frequency range of 2–4 Hz, particularly important for the type of buildings present in this part of the city.     

PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf,Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.

Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.     

QUICK SURVEY OF THE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF DAMAGE ENHANCEMENT OBSERVED IN SAN GIULIANO AFTER THE 2002 MOLISE,ITALY SEISMIC SEQUENCE

On October 31 and November 1, 2002, two earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 and 5.3 hit the area at the border between the Molise and Puglia regions in Southern Italy. The damage pattern in the epicentral area qualified the quake as an intensity VII MCS event, although providing a notable exception relevant to the small village of San Giuliano di Puglia. Since the first macroseismic survey, it appeared clear that in S. Giuliano the intensity was two degrees higher with respect to three neighbouring villages located within a radius of 3 km. Soon after the quake, our team started a campaign of microtremor HVSR measurements (Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio), then we installed accelerometers and carried out damage and geological surveys. Finally, we performed a geoelectrical tomography and two profiles of Vs velocity with depth using the NASW technique (Noise Analysis of Surface Waves). The preliminary observations indicate that ground motion amplification is present in S. Giuliano within the frequency band that may affect building. A strong velocity contrast 20 m deep causes the predominant peak. More amplification could be due to more complicated, 2D effects. As regards the damage pattern, it divides S. Giuliano in three zones showing different characteristics and seismic behaviour. A building-by-building survey is still under way to better evaluate vulnerability variations in different zones of the village. However, the acquired data so far is sufficient to propose site amplification as a possible cause of the damage enhancement observed in S. Giuliano.     

SEISMIC WAVE ATTENUATION FOR VRANCEA EVENTS REVISITED

New aspects of the frequency-dependent attenuation of the seismic waves travelling from Vrancea subcrustal sources toward NW (Transylvanian Basin) and SE (Romanian Plain) are evidenced by the recent experimental data made available by the CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment. The observations validate the previous theoretical computations performed for the assessment, by means of a deterministic approach, of the seismic hazard in Romania. They reveal an essential aspect of the seismic ground motion attenuation that has important implications on the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes. The attenuation toward NW is shown to be a much stronger frequency-dependent effect than the attenuation toward SE and the seismic hazard computed by the deterministic approach fits satisfactorily well the observed ground motion distribution in the low-frequency band (<1Hz). The apparent contradiction with the historically-based intensity maps arises mainly from a systematic difference in the eigenperiods (type and size) of the buildings in the intra- and extra-Carpathians regions, thus the existing macroseismic data, based on buildings of small dimensions, i.e. with high eigenfrequency (5–10 Hz), can hardly be representative of the real hazard for new and large dimension, tall buildings, with eigenfrequency above 1 Hz.     

STRONG MOTION VERSUS WEAK MOTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR MICROZONATION STUDIES

A set of mainshock and aftershock data following the Chamoli earthquake of March 29, 1999, recorded at a single station viz. Gopeshwar, has been studied. Particularly, the utility of the use of aftershock/weak motion data for site characterisation in seismic microzonation studies is investigated. The analysis of aftershock and mainshock data indicates that the spectral shape and amplification is quite different during the main-shock and the aftershock. This, in turn, implies that the use of weak motion/aftershock records may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the expected ground motion during a strong earthquake. Further, it has been shown that the site characteristics estimated from H/V ratios are not stable in the near field conditions, even for weak motion data.     

SEISMIC MICROZONATION AND SITE EFFECTS AT AL HOCEIMA CITY,MOROCCO

Measurements of background noise at Al Hoceima city and its extension zones allowed us to elaborate a seismic microzonation map. The analysis of this map shows existing relationships between the observed dominant periods and the local geological conditions. In particular, a strong correlation between the dominant periods and the topography is apparent; indeed, we find larger dominant periods in areas with higher topography such as in the Ras El Abed sector to the north of the city and in the area of Cala Bonita, south of the city. Furthermore, the field work conducted in the region revealed that the karstic phenomenon is well developed in the Ras El Abed sector, and affects the dominant periods and a hence the site response.     

Microtremor HVSR Study of Site Effects in the Ilirska Bistrica Town Area (S. Slovenia)

The region of Ilirska Bistrica is one of the most seismically active areas of Slovenia, where 15 damaging earthquakes with maximum intensity equal or greater than V EMS-98 have occurred in the last 100 years. These earthquakes have shown that strong site effects are characteristic of the parts of the town that are built on soft Pliocene clay and sand overlain by Quaternary alluvium. Since there is a lack of boreholes and geophysical and earthquake data, the microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method was applied to a 250 m dense grid of free-field measurements over an extended area and to a 200 m dense grid in the town area in order to assess the fundamental frequency of the sediments. Measurements were additionally performed in ten characteristic houses to assess the main building frequencies. The effects of wind and artificial noise on the reliability of the results were analyzed. The map of the fundamental frequencies of sediments shows a distribution in a range of 1–20 Hz. The lower frequency range (below 10 Hz) corresponds to the extent of Pliocene clays and sand overlain by alluvium, which form a small basin, and the higher frequencies to flysch rocks, but variations within short distances are considerable. The measurements inside the buildings of various heights (2–6 stories) showed main longitudinal and transverse frequencies in the range 3.8–8.8 Hz. Since this range overlaps with the fundamental frequency range for Pliocene and Quaternary sediments (2–10 Hz), the danger of soil-structure resonance is considerable, especially in the northern part of the town. Soil-structure resonance is less probable in the central and southern part of the town, where higher free-field frequencies prevail. These observations are in agreement with the distribution of damage caused by the 1995 earthquake (M_L?=?4.7, I_max?=?VI EMS-98), for which a detailed damage survey data is available.     

MODELLING OF THE GROUND MOTION AT RUSSE SITE (NE BULGARIA) DUE TO THE VRANCEA EARTHQUAKES

An approach, capable of synthesising strong ground motion from a basic understanding of fault mechanism and of seismic wave propagation in the Earth, is applied to model the seismic input at a set of 25 sites along a chosen profile at Russe, NE Bulgaria, due to two intermediate-depth Vrancea events (August 30, 1986, M _ω=7.2, and May 30, 1990, M _ω=6.9). Accordingly to our results, once a strong ground motion parameter has been selected to characterise the ground motion, it is necessary to investigate the relationships between its values and the features of the earthquake source, the path to the site and the nature of the site. Therefore, a proper seismic hazard assessment requires an appro-priate parametric study to define the different ground shaking scenarios corresponding to the relevant seismogenic zones affecting the given site. Site response assessment is provided simultaneously in frequency and space domains, and thus the applied procedure differs from the traditional engineering approach that discusses the site as a single point. The applied procedure can be efficiently used to estimate the ground motion for different purposes like microzonation, urban planning, retrofitting or insurance of the built environment.     

Preparation of Engineering Geological Maps of Bam City Using Geophysical and Geotechnical Approach

Engineering geological mapping was carried out at a scale of 1:25000 in the city of Bam, located in southeastern Iran, to provide engineering geological information as a base for seismic microzonation of the city. In this study, Seismic Refraction and Vertical Seismic Profiling (VSP) surveys were employed along with boreholes in order to identify the characteristics of subsurface material in Bam city. A number of different kinds of maps of the city were prepared consisting of Iso-depth, Iso-velocity, and Iso-Poisson's Ratio maps. The study also involves trial pitting and continuous core recovery, in-situ, and laboratory tests. Borehole data, index properties of soils, and standard penetration test results were used to assess subsurface conditions. Geophysical and geotechnical data were combined to simulate geotechnical boreholes and prepare engineering geological maps to provide basic data for seismic geotechnical microzonation to facilitate in the reconstruction of the city of Bam.     

SITE AMPLIFICATION FACTOR IN ANCHORAGE,ALASKA BASED ON LONG PERIOD MICROTREMORS

Long period microtremors with periods ranging from 0.5 to 10 seconds were measured in the Anchorage metropolitan area. Two horizontal components of motion were recorded at 81 sites uniformly distributed throughout the basin with spatial resolution of about 2 km. Recording at each site was done for 300 seconds with a sampling rate of 20 Hz. Repeated measurements were performed at a bedrock reference site simultaneously with the measurements in the field. The measurements were completed in six days. In addition, multiple recordings were obtained concurrently at the reference bedrock site and a sediment site. Based on these measurements the Fourier spectra were calculated for each of the site. Ground motion amplification is determined in terms of spectral ratio of horizontal spectral amplitudes at a sediment site and the reference bedrock site. Mean spectral ratio contours were evaluated for different period bands. The results show that for period band 3 to 5 seconds the spectral ratio contours agree well with the ground failure susceptiblity map of Anchorage.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area that has been studied lies between 50°E-60°E and 20°N-30°N and spans several Gulf countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown. A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention. The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.     

Seismic Site Response Modeling for Three Missouri River Highway Bridges

Three highway bridges spanning the Missouri River flood plain were selected for evaluation of seismic site response for moderate size earthquakes emanating from the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States. The NMSZ is known to be capable spawning earthquakes larger than magnitude (M) 7.0, four of which occurred in a three-month period between 1811 and 1812, and the M_w 6.0 earthquake of October 1895 centered near Charleston, Missouri. This study evaluated the likely impacts of long period motion of these historic earthquakes on three long-span highway bridges using geotechnical data obtained from recent investigations. Our results suggest site amplification between 6× and 9×, depending on the magnitude and epicentral distance. We believe that threshold magnitude for serious foundation failure and damage to these bridges is between M_w 6.5 and 6.6. Above these magnitudes widespread liquefaction is predicted, which would effect the peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations, causing the ground motions to be different than predicted. Increase in amplification of the response spectra also should be expected where the periods are higher than 1.0 sec. Therefore, M_w 6.5+ earthquakes at ranges 210–260 km could be expected to engender resonant frequency problems for multiple span bridges and tall buildings (10 to 25 stories) in channel corridors containing 20 to 46 m of unconsolidated sediment.     

EFFECTS OF SOIL LAYERING ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BASIN-EDGE INDUCED SURFACE WAVES AND DIFFERENTIAL GROUND MOTION

This paper studies the effects of soil layering in the basin based on the characteristics of basin-edge induced surface waves and associated differential ground motion. Seismic responses of various basin-edge models were simulated using software based on parsimonious finite difference staggered grid approximation of 2.5D eiastodynamic wave equation. Seismic responses of various models with different number of soil/soft rock layers but for a fixed thickness of deposit, fundamental frequency and impedance contrast revealed a decrease of surface wave amplitude with an increase in the number of layers in the basin. Shifting of dominant frequency towards the higher values was obtained with an increase of number of layers. An increase of dispersion of surface waves with an increase of number of soil layers in the basin was observed. A minor increase of Rayleigh wave velocity with an increase of number of soil layers was also obtained, but in the case of Love wave it was almost negligible.

Spectral analysis of the edge-induced surface waves revealed that the anomalous earthquake intensity may arise in a zone of width of 2.5–3.0 km, parallel to basin-edge and at an offset of 0.5–0.7 km from the edge. Maximum horizontal differential ground motion (HDGM) developed by Love wave (≈4.9×10^?2) was more than that of Rayleigh wave (≈9.4×10^?3). Large variation in HDGM caused by the surface waves was obtained with a change in the number of layers in the basin and maximum HDGM was observed when there were only two layers in the basin. It was inferred that the effect of soil layering in the basin was more on the Rayleigh wave as compared to the Love wave. Development of large HDGM near the basin-edge and its dependency on the number of soil layers reveals that basin-edge induced surface waves need special attention during seismic microzonation or seismic hazard prediction.     

Foundations of Urbanisation: Port Vila Town and Pango Village,Vanuatu

Urbanisation in contemporary Melanesia must be understood by examining not only rural to urban migration, but also the ways in which communities adjacent to town have appropriated and participated in urban living. This paper considers the engagement between the village of Pango and the town of Port Vila. This relationship can be understood by mapping the history of Pango prior to the development of Port Vila, and through its subsequent history. This paper considers natural disasters, revolution, migration, depopulation, education wage employment, colonial administration and post-Independence transformations, and the way they are interpreted, remembered and expressed. Pango's status as a peri-urban village affects the way Pangoans invoke the past and interpret the present.     

EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE SCENARIOS AND SEISMIC HAZARD OF MESSINA,NORTH-EASTERN SICILY (ITALY) AS INFERRED FROM HISTORICAL DATA

A study aimed at evaluating earthquake damage scenarios and seismic hazard of Messina using historical data, is presented. The analysis of coeval reports allowed us to reconstruct the seismic history of the city and to obtain a homogeneous earthquake site catalogue based on intensity assessed by the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. In the last 1200 years Messina was destroyed once (1908, intensity X-XI EMS) and suffered effects estimated between intensities VII and IX EMS many times (e.g. 853, 1169, 1494, 1509, 1599, 1693, 1783, 1894, 1909). Destruction or severe damage which affected the city are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the Messina Straits and Southern Calabria, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to shocks taking place in the seismogenic sources of SE Sicily, Gulf of Patti and Northern Calabria. The damage scenarios of the most relevant events, delineated using coeval urban plans of the city, showed that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by the different soil response. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was obtained by using site observed intensities: The expected intensity in a time span of 50 years (i.e. maximum intensity characterised by at least 10% exceedance probability in 50 years) is DC EMS; the expected intensity in a time span of 300 years (10% exceedance probability in 300 years) is X EMS.