SEISMIC WAVE ATTENUATION FOR VRANCEA EVENTS REVISITED

New aspects of the frequency-dependent attenuation of the seismic waves travelling from Vrancea subcrustal sources toward NW (Transylvanian Basin) and SE (Romanian Plain) are evidenced by the recent experimental data made available by the CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment. The observations validate the previous theoretical computations performed for the assessment, by means of a deterministic approach, of the seismic hazard in Romania. They reveal an essential aspect of the seismic ground motion attenuation that has important implications on the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes. The attenuation toward NW is shown to be a much stronger frequency-dependent effect than the attenuation toward SE and the seismic hazard computed by the deterministic approach fits satisfactorily well the observed ground motion distribution in the low-frequency band (<1Hz). The apparent contradiction with the historically-based intensity maps arises mainly from a systematic difference in the eigenperiods (type and size) of the buildings in the intra- and extra-Carpathians regions, thus the existing macroseismic data, based on buildings of small dimensions, i.e. with high eigenfrequency (5–10 Hz), can hardly be representative of the real hazard for new and large dimension, tall buildings, with eigenfrequency above 1 Hz.     

MICROZONATION OF THE EXPECTED SEISMIC SITE EFFECTS ACROSS PORT VILA,VANUATU

The city of Port Vila, Vanuatu, is located in one of the most active seismic regions on earth. Earthquakes are felt frequently and, due to very rapid plate convergence rates, return period of large earthquakes (M>6) in the New Hebrides Benioff zone can be less than 10 years. Even though Port Vila does not lie on an identified seismic fault zone, strong motions by nearby earthquakes have to be expected due to the city's geographical location close to the plate boundary of New Hebrides convergence zone. An accurate estimation of the seismic ground motion across the city is of prime importance for urban developments and mitigation of earthquake risk. Following many examples of monitored strong earthquakes in the current century, it is evident that the local site effects may have a dominant contribution to the intensity of damage and destruction. In this study we focussed on the first stage of associating site effects and seismic hazard by preparing a microzonation map for Port Vila. The seismic microzonation of the city has been carried out to provide a detailed map of the zones that exhibit site effects in terms of resonance frequencies and approximated amplification of the ground shaking. Having in mind that these data will be used in improving building design to sustain strong ground motions, our analysis is limited to the frequency band of 1–10 Hz, corresponding to the expected resonance of different types of buildings in Port Vila. The Nakamura technique has been used to estimate site amplification effects from single station noise recordings. Interestingly, excluding one site located on an old dump zone, the amplification factors at about the 100 sites surveyed in Port Vila remain below 3 with an average well below 2 in the 1 to 10 Hz frequency band. These results suggest that there is no significant Vs velocity change in consequently layered material and that the uppermost sedimentary layers in the surveyed down town area are relatively thin. These observations are in agreement with the mapping of limestone terraces throughout Port Vila area. However, both the surface geology and results from seismic zonation indicate a thicker (up to several tens of meters) sedimentary cover around the Bauerfield airport and in the Mele terrace zone. Low resonance frequencies (around and below 1 Hz) and amplification factor of the order of 5 were observed over this large area, immediately outside Port Vila. Any building development in this area should take these results into account.     

Considering Soil-Nonlinearity Effect on Seismic Performance Evaluation of Structures based on Pushover Analysis

According to the most of current seismic codes, nonlinear soil behavior is commonly ignored in seismic evaluation procedure of the structures. To contribute on this matter, a pushover analysis method incorporating the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is proposed to evaluate the effect of nonlinear soil response on seismic performance of a structure. The PSHA outcomes considering soil nonlinearity effect is involved in the analysis procedures by modifying the site-specific response spectrum. Results showed that incorporation of nonlinear soil behavior leads to an increase in displacement demand of structures which should accurately be considered in seismic design/assessment procedure. Results of implemented procedure are confirmed with the estimated displacement demand including soil-structure interaction (SSI).     

TUNING OF SEISMIC HAZARD ESTIMATES BY MEANS OF OBSERVED SITE INTENSITIES

Probabilistic seismic hazard is usually assessed by means of computer codes using seis-mogenic sources, parametric catalogues, seismicity rates and attenuation relationships. All these ingredients are conditioned by expert judgement that influences the final results. Even the attenuation relationships, though strictly based on experimental data, are considered a weak point due to the difficulty of modelling the interaction between seismic energy radiation and site response, and because earthquakes do not usually repeat themselves according to one theoretical model. Recently, methods making wide use of site intensity data have been developed in regions such as Italy, where the observed seismic history at selected sites is quite exhaustive. We analyzed these observations to assess seismic hazard at about 600 sites. We used a probabilistic counting technique, integrating the observations (when necessary), with computed shakings obtained from a logistic-type attenuation model. The results were then compared with the estimates provided by the recent seismic hazard map of Italy, compiled according to the traditional probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The match shows significant differences for some sites. A tentative explanation which seems to point to three alternatives is provided: (1) The mismatch between the two methodologies might appear because the stationary assumption has a poor fit with reality (at least in certain areas); (2) Some sites show a response that is systematically different from the average values predicted using attenuation relationships; (3) The definition of seismogenic zones leads to a bias in the seismicity rate estimate.     

EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF SITE EFFECTS BY MEANS OF H/V SPECTRAL RATIOS AT THE LOCATIONS OF STRONG MOTION ACCELEROMETERS IN ISRAEL

Acceleration data from local and regional earthquakes is of prime importance in evaluating the seismic hazard. Consequently, strong motion accelerometers are currently installed at more than 60 locations in Israel. We have explored the possibility of site amplification effects at 10 sites where local earthquakes triggered strong motion accelerometers by integrating empirical and analytical estimations. Implementing H/V spectral ratio techniques using 15 accelerograms from nine earthquakes, 105 seismograms shear-wave records of 35 local and regional earthquakes and seismograms of microtremors were used in the empirical evaluations. The subsurface models were constructed by integrating available geological and geophysical information at the analysed site with empirically evaluated site response functions. Amplification effects of factor 3-6 are observed at various frequencies in the 0.8-6.0 Hz band. Through the analysis process it became evident that the instant availability of many useful time windows of microtremors provides systematic estimations of the fundamental resonance frequency of each site and their associated amplification levels, which are similar to those obtained from H/V spectral ratios of seismograms and accelerograms and to those inferred from the subsurface geology. Analytical transfer functions should be reviewed with respect to empirical site response evaluations. Estimations that are based on only one approach may be totally misleading.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF METROPOLITAN TEHRAN,IRAN

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran, the capital of Iran. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Tehran and its vicinity in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 950 years. Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least 6 times, Tehran has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. The oldest one happened in the 4th century BC. A collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events and covering the period from the 4th century BC to 1999 is then used. Seismic sources are modelled and recurrence relationship is established. For this purpose the method proposed by Kijko [2000] was employed considering uncertainty in magnitude and incomplete earthquake catalogue. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and three weighted attenuation relationships; Ramazi [1999], 0.4, Ambraseys and Bommer [1991], 0.35, and Sarma and Srbulov [1996], 0.25. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 12×11 grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for 10% probability of exceedance in two life cycles of 50 and 100 years are presented. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.27(g) to 0.46(g) for a return period of 475 years and from 0.33(g) to 0.55(g) for a return period of 950 years. Since population is very dense in Tehran and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.     

SEISMIC HAZARD IN GREECE BASED ON DIFFERENT STRONG GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS

The available Greek strong ground motion records to date are used in order to study the duration of strong-motion in Greece, covering magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.9 and distances from 1 km to 128 km. An attenuation relation of strong-motion duration is calculated and compared to earlier existing similar relations proposed for Greece and Japan. Furthermore, the seismic hazard for the area of Greece is assessed, using the strong-motion parameters of duration and peak ground acceleration. The results are presented in the form of a map according to which Greece is classified in four different categories of equal seismic hazard.     

EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE SCENARIOS AND SEISMIC HAZARD OF MESSINA,NORTH-EASTERN SICILY (ITALY) AS INFERRED FROM HISTORICAL DATA

A study aimed at evaluating earthquake damage scenarios and seismic hazard of Messina using historical data, is presented. The analysis of coeval reports allowed us to reconstruct the seismic history of the city and to obtain a homogeneous earthquake site catalogue based on intensity assessed by the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. In the last 1200 years Messina was destroyed once (1908, intensity X-XI EMS) and suffered effects estimated between intensities VII and IX EMS many times (e.g. 853, 1169, 1494, 1509, 1599, 1693, 1783, 1894, 1909). Destruction or severe damage which affected the city are mainly related to earthquakes occurring in the Messina Straits and Southern Calabria, while slighter, moderate effects are usually due to shocks taking place in the seismogenic sources of SE Sicily, Gulf of Patti and Northern Calabria. The damage scenarios of the most relevant events, delineated using coeval urban plans of the city, showed that damage distribution is strongly conditioned by the different soil response. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was obtained by using site observed intensities: The expected intensity in a time span of 50 years (i.e. maximum intensity characterised by at least 10% exceedance probability in 50 years) is DC EMS; the expected intensity in a time span of 300 years (10% exceedance probability in 300 years) is X EMS.     

Seismic Reliability of Code-Conforming Italian Buildings

ABSTRACT

This paper presents and discusses some research results related to the seismic failure risk of standard, residential and industrial, buildings designed for damage, and life-safety according to the Italian seismic code, which is somewhat similar to Eurocode 8. The five considered structural typologies are as follows: masonry, cast-in-place reinforced concrete, precast reinforced concrete, steel, and base-isolated buildings. The archetype structures have been designed according to standard practice at three sites, representative of the seismic hazard across the country. Seismic risk is defined here as the annual rate of earthquakes able to cause structural failure in terms of usability-preventing damage and global collapse. For each structure, the failure rates have been evaluated in the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering, that is, via integration of site’s probabilistic hazard and structural fragility. The former has been computed consistently with the official hazard model for Italy that is also used to define design actions in the code. The latter has been addressed via nonlinear dynamic analysis of three-dimensional numerical structural models. Results indicate that, generally, design procedures are such that seismic structural reliability tends to decrease with increasing seismic hazard of the building site, despite the homogeneous return period of exceedance of the design seismic ground-motion.     

Tsunamigenic Analysis in and around Makran

The Makran region is only segment east of the Mediterranean and west of Andaman arc in which subduction of oceanic lithosphere is still an ongoing process. We applied statistical models for the possible explanation of earthquakes in and around Makran, and described a method of Fault Plane Solutions to present seismicity picture in the investigated region, and their possible tsunamigenic effects on Gwadar Coast. We also applied the Community Modeling Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) for the estimation of tsunami hazard along the coast of Gwader due to the Arabian and Eurasian plate boundary earthquakes along the Makran subduction zone.     

Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Scenarios in Greater Tehran

Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants, has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the area. The main objective of this article is to present a probabilistic procedure to construct time series compatible with the source-path and site reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during a specified time period. A Monte Carlo approach is used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs for the evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard in greater Tehran over hard rock site for a return period of 475 years. The disaggregation of the seismic hazard is carried out to identify hazard-dominating events and to associate them with one or more specific faults, rather than a given distance. The stochastic finite-fault technique based on region specific seismic parameters is used to generate time series of earthquake scenario.     

The Mw 6.4 SW-Achaia (Western Greece) Earthquake of 8 June 2008: Seismological,Field, GPS Observations,and Stress Modeling

On June 8, 2008 a Mw = 6.4 earthquake occurred in NW Peloponnese, western Greece. This event is the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in western Greece during the past 25 years. No surface rupture was observed. Many rock falls, slides, and liquefaction features have been found as is typical for an earthquake of this size. Double-difference relocations of 370 aftershocks show a linear pattern of events and define a clear NE-SW striking mainshock fault plane. The hypocentrer was determined at 18 km depth beneath village Mihoi in SW Achaia. The 24-hr aftershock region extends approximately 30 km in length, and the width of the surface projection of the aftershocks ranges between 5–10 km. The depth of the aftershocks rarely exceeds 22 km. Analysis of high-rate GPS data showed that station RLS (Riolos) which is located 12.8 km N5°W of the epicenter was displaced co-seismically 7 mm to the North in agreement with right-lateral kinematics of the rupture. Static (Coulomb) stress transfer analysis indicates loading of faults near the towns of Patras (north) and Amaliada (south), respectively. The earthquake put more emphasis on the role of strike-slip in the deformation of western Greece also indicating that seismic strain is partitioned between strike-slip and normal-slip events due to obliquity of the Nubia (Africa) – Eurasia convergence.     

EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF TOPOGRAPHIC AMPLIFICATION USING THE ISRAEL SEISMIC NETWORK

Earthquakes and microtremor records are used for estimating the site response of hard rock sites comprising four three-component seismic stations which operate as part of the Israel Seismic Network. The response functions are determined by implementing the horizontal-to-vertical component spectral ratio of earthquake shear-waves (receiver function estimates) and microtremors (Nakamura's estimate) observed simultaneously at the site. The sites of seismic stations ATZ (Mt. Atzmon), MBH (Mt. Berech) and MRNI (Mt. Meron) exhibit amplification attributed to topography effects. At ATZ, within the 1.3–2.0 Hz range, the amplification is in the order of factor 4. At MBH amplification levels of 3.0–3.5 are observed in the frequency range 1.5–4.0 Hz. Station MRNI exhibits a relatively strong amplification effect (up to 4) in the frequency range of about 2.5 to 3.5 Hz. Slight amplification around 5 Hz is observed at ATR (the proposed site for a nuclear power plant). These effects were correlated with the thickness of the weathered layer above unweathered chalk. A comparison between the amplification factor observed during earthquakes and those inferred from microtremors shows that these are, in general, in agreement. However, details of the spectral ratios from different microtremor recordings are not exactly the same. Differences appear mainly in the frequency at which the maximum amplification occurs. These observations demonstrate the usefulness of non-reference technique in estimating the topographical effects of ground shaking. These methods may be used in the process of seismic hazard assessment for ridges and mountain tops, common sites for settlements, communication relay stations, bridges, rope-drive and power transmission towers.     

Seismic Noise Characteristics at the Romanian Broadband Seismic Network

The noise level of the Romanian broadband stations operating since 2006 has been studied in order to identify the variations in background seismic noise as a function of time of day, season, and particular conditions at the stations. Power spectral densities and their corresponding probability density functions are used in this paper to characterize the background seismic noise. At high frequencies (> 1 Hz), seismic noise seems to have cultural origin, since significant variations (up to 55 dB) between daytime and nighttime noise levels are observed at almost all of the stations. However, this variability appears not to influence the detection capabilities of the Romanian Seismic Network in case of intermediate-depth earthquakes and earthquakes with magnitude over 3.0. For smaller magnitude events (Mw < 3), we showed that the number of stations detecting an event decreases during daytime. We studied the seasonal variation of the seismic noise for primary and secondary microseisms (with emphasize for the latter) and we demonstrated that the noise levels are higher in winter than in summer. We also observed a shift of the double-frequency peak from lower periods in summer to longer periods in winter. The polarization analysis indicated that the main sources of secondary microseisms for stations close to the Black Sea are coming from the Black Sea, while for the others the main sources are found in the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Finally, the analysis of the probability density functions for stations located in different geologic conditions has pointed out that the noise level is higher for stations sited on softer formations than those sited on hard rocks.     

REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area that has been studied lies between 50°E-60°E and 20°N-30°N and spans several Gulf countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown. A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention. The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.     

Attenuation Relationships for Iran

The purpose of this study is to derive the attenuation relationships for PGA, PGV, and EPA parameters for areas within the seismic zones of Zagros, Alborz and Central Iran with rock and soil substructures. In order to do so, at first the available scientific data including the methods used for deriving attenuation relationships and the parameters involved have been gathered. Afterwards, all the efforts have been focused on gathering a thorough catalogue of earthquakes occurred in Iran. In this regard, a majority of the available catalogs in Iran have been gathered and corrected through different methods and finally a set of 89 earthquake events including 307 earthquake records with reliable data was chosen.

Since in order to derive the attenuation relationships it is essential to extract the parameters from the acceleration records, a great effort was placed on gathering the earthquake acceleration records of Iran. This resulted in building a database of a majority of the earthquake records up to the year of 2004. Afterwards, correction methods applicable to earthquakes records of Iran considering the type of machines used and the ground type were examined which resulted in certain guidelines for correction of earthquake acceleration record data related to Iran.

In the next step the needed parameters were extracted from the earthquake acceleration record data which were consequently divided into two seismic zones of Zagros, and Alborz and Central Iran according to tectonic conditions. After examination of the parameters and choosing the most appropriate among them, the attenuation relationships were derived for such parameters.     

Microtremor HVSR Study of Site Effects in the Ilirska Bistrica Town Area (S. Slovenia)

The region of Ilirska Bistrica is one of the most seismically active areas of Slovenia, where 15 damaging earthquakes with maximum intensity equal or greater than V EMS-98 have occurred in the last 100 years. These earthquakes have shown that strong site effects are characteristic of the parts of the town that are built on soft Pliocene clay and sand overlain by Quaternary alluvium. Since there is a lack of boreholes and geophysical and earthquake data, the microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method was applied to a 250 m dense grid of free-field measurements over an extended area and to a 200 m dense grid in the town area in order to assess the fundamental frequency of the sediments. Measurements were additionally performed in ten characteristic houses to assess the main building frequencies. The effects of wind and artificial noise on the reliability of the results were analyzed. The map of the fundamental frequencies of sediments shows a distribution in a range of 1–20 Hz. The lower frequency range (below 10 Hz) corresponds to the extent of Pliocene clays and sand overlain by alluvium, which form a small basin, and the higher frequencies to flysch rocks, but variations within short distances are considerable. The measurements inside the buildings of various heights (2–6 stories) showed main longitudinal and transverse frequencies in the range 3.8–8.8 Hz. Since this range overlaps with the fundamental frequency range for Pliocene and Quaternary sediments (2–10 Hz), the danger of soil-structure resonance is considerable, especially in the northern part of the town. Soil-structure resonance is less probable in the central and southern part of the town, where higher free-field frequencies prevail. These observations are in agreement with the distribution of damage caused by the 1995 earthquake (M_L?=?4.7, I_max?=?VI EMS-98), for which a detailed damage survey data is available.     

故宫太和殿动力特性与常遇地震响应

为更好地保护故宫太和殿,采用有限元分析方法,研究了太和殿的动力特性及常遇地震作用下的响应。采用弹簧单元模拟榫卯节点及斗拱构造,并考虑柱础为铰接,建立了太和殿有限元模型。通过模态分析,获得了太和殿基频及主振型;通过对模型进行时程分析,获得了典型节点的位移、加速度响应曲线,以及典型单元的内力响应曲线,评价了太和殿的抗震性能。结果表明:太和殿基频为0.9Hz,主振型以平动为主;常遇地震作用下,太和殿能保持稳定振动状态,结构的内力和变形均在容许范围内,且斗拱及榫卯节点均能发挥一定的减震作用。