SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN FLORENCE CITY ITALY

A seismic hazard analysis of Florence city was performed in the frame of a project concerning the dynamic behaviour of cable-stayed bridges. Both a probabilistic approach and a methodology based on the use of a local macroseismic catalogue were applied. A local catalogue was expressly compiled for this purpose, to collect the macroseismic intensities actually observed at the site as a result of past earthquakes. This sort of catalogue is an independent tool to verify the assumptions of the probabilistic approach (seismic zoning, earthquake recurrence relation, attenuation model), though it can supply results in terms of macroseismic intensity only and reflects the effective seismic history at the site, without taking into account any variability. The Cornell' methodology was used to assess probabilistic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudovelocity uniform response spectra. The local catalogue points out level VII of the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale (MCS) as the maximum intensity historically observed in Florence. The probabilistic approach leads to the consideration of intensity VIII MCS as the maximum credible for the city. The probabilistic analysis in terms of ground motion was performed using attenuation relations estimated for alluvium sites, since the geology of Florence area is represented by fluvial and lacustrine deposits of various thickness. Peak ground acceleration values with 90% non exceedence probability in 50 and 500 years are respectively 145 and 219 cm/s's for a shallow alluvium site, and 95 and 157 cm/s's for a deep alluvium site; the corresponding peak ground velocity values for sites located on alluvium are 6.41 and 11.76 cm/s. Uniform response spectra are provided for shallow and deep alluvium sites, according to frequency-dependent attenuation relations estimated from strong Italian earthquakes.     

Spectral Attenuation Relations at Soft Sites Based on Existing Attenuation Relations for Rock Sites

A simple and general method based on well-known random vibration theory is used to compute spectral attenuation relations at soft sites based on existing spectral attenuation relations at rock sites. The method consists of: (1) computation, for given magnitude and distance, of the expected Fourier amplitude spectrum associated with the median rock response spectrum computed with the attenuation relation; (2) inclusion of site effects characterized by a frequency-dependent, linear, or nonlinear transfer function; and (3) computation of the response spectrum at the soft site.     

SEGMENTAL CROSS-SPECTRUM AS A NEW TECHNIQUE IN SITE RESPONSE ESTIMATION USING SPECTRAL RATIO ANALYSIS

Different aspects of spectral analysis for site response evaluation are investigated in this study. The segmental cross-spectrum is proposed in spectral analysis of earthquake ground motions. The performance of segmental cross-spectrum in contrast with the conventional methods is investigated through the mathematical modelling, numerical analysis and application to earthquake data recorded at Chiba and Shinfuji downhole arrays in Japan. In analysis of earthquake data, the soil amplification function is identified using both uphole/downhole (U/D) and H/V spectral ratios. The advantage of seg-mental cross-spectrum is assessed by comparing identified amplification functions using different spectral methods and theoretical soil response. The reliability of site response estimations obtained by H/V spectral ratio using segmental cross- and Fourier spectra is also examined by means of cross-validation with the U/D spectral ratio of earthquake motion and theoretical soil response. Furthermore, the application of segmental cross-spectrum in nonlinear soil response is examined by comparing the amplification function of weak and strong motions for both methods. The results validate the advantage of segmental cross-spectrum in both linear and nonlinear soil response, particularly, when it used with H/V technique.     

Estimation of Strong Ground Motions in Southwest Western Australia with a Combined Green's Function and Stochastic Approach

As only a very limited number of earthquake strong ground motion records are available in southwest Western Australia (SWWA), it is difficult to derive a reliable and unbiased strong ground motion attenuation model based on these data. To overcome this, in this study a combined approach is used to simulate ground motions. First, the stochastic approach is used to simulate ground motion time histories at various epicentral distances from small earthquake events. Then, the Green's function method, with the stochastically simulated time histories as input, is used to generate large event ground motion time histories. Comparing the Fourier spectra of the simulated motions with the recorded motions of a ML6.2 event in Cadoux in June 1979 and a ML5.5 event in Meckering in January 1990, provides good evidence in support of this method. This approach is then used to simulate a series of ground motion time histories from earthquakes of varying magnitudes and distances. From the regression analyses of these simulated data, the attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and response spectrum of ground motions on rock site in SWWA are derived.     

ATTENUATION RELATION FOR WEST EURASIA DETERMINED WITH RECENT NEAR-FAULT RECORDS FROM CALIFORNIA,JAPAN AND TURKEY

Strong ground motion close to a fault can be expected to be very large, so its estimation is essential for human safetv. Although a few strong-motion data exist for the west Eurasian region, we proposed in a previous work [Berge-Thierry et al., 2003] an attenuation relation for spectral acceleration using strong-motion data recorded in west Eurasia (mainly in Europe) and some in the western United States: this relationship was derived for the French Safety Rule, which is applied for seismic hazard assessment at nuclear power plants. In this study, we propose a constraining of the amplitude saturation term related to the proximity of the fault, and an adding of an amplitude saturation term in the regression model. We add, to the data-set previously used to derive the west Eurasian attenuation relationship strong-motions recorded during recent large earth-quakes: the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) event in Japan and the 1999 Kocaeli (Izmit) event in Turkey. The regression analysis, adopted from Fukushima and Tanaka [1990], is non-linear, so an iterative procedure is applied. The determined regression coefficients lead to a prediction of a peak ground acceleration of about 0.7 g for soil site conditions at a fault distance of 0.5 km. The Q coefficient deduced, from the distance coefficient is in agreement with scattering Q models. The introduction of the saturation term leads to significantly lower predictions of average spectral accelerations at short distances as compared with using the Berge-Thierry et al. [2003] empirical model.     

FINITE FAULT MODELLING OF NEAR-FIELD ROCK MOTIONS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

Due to lack of strong motion records, point-source and finite-fault models have been used to simulate far-field motions at Memphis and St. Louis Cities from earthquake events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, near-field rock motions and their associated uncertainties have never been studied within this zone. The objectives of this study are to develop a simple procedure to account for the uncertainty effect of earthquake source parameters, to analyze the sensitivity of near-field rock motions to input source parameters, and finally, to generate rock motions at two sites located within 11 km from the southwestern segment (strike-fault) and a third site bove the Reelfoot Rift (reverse fault) using a well-validated finite-fault simulation program; FINSIM. An equal-weight logic tree was developed to ensure that the assumed uncertainties are within physical, geological, and seismological constraints. For each site, 100 acceleration time histories with various combinations of parameter uncertainties were respectively simulated for an earthquake of M _w 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0 from each of the two faults. Their average spectral accelerations were in good agreement with those derived from the attenuation relation-ships representative to the Central and Eastern United States. Numerical simulations indicated that spectral accelerations are sensitive to the slip velocity, depth to top of fault, fault strike, slip distribution, and hypocentre location along the strike.     

Empirical Green's Functions Modified by Attenuation for Sources Located at Intermediate and Far Distances from the Original Source

We present a scheme to modify empirical Green's functions by attenuation considering: (1) geometrical spreading; (2) decay in high frequency; (3) regional attenuation; and (4) phase of the signal. The accelerograms computed with the proposed simulation method are compared, in time and frequency domains, with strong ground motions from subduction and intermediate-depth earthquakes recorded in Mexico. It is shown that this simple empirical Green's functions technique can synthesize both the shape and amplitude of the response spectra in the site, considering a postulated seismic source located at different distances from the original one.     

Synthesizing Broadband Time-Histories at Near Source Sites; Case Study, 2003 Bam Mw6.5 Earthquake

The main objective of this article is to synthesize the 2003 Bam earthquake. A hybrid method is proposed for synthesizing the near-fault broadband timehistories; a theoretical green's function method and a stochastic finite-fault approach for generating time histories at low and high frequencies, respectively. A genetic algorithm is developed to optimize the differences between synthesized and recorded ground motions.

The proposed technique can be used for dynamic nonlinear analysis of structures and site specific hazard analysis of the regions with lack of sufficient data and also for retrofitting the damaged structures during Bam earthquake, particularly the well-known adobe buildings of Arg-e-Bam.     

SEISMIC HAZARD IN GREECE BASED ON DIFFERENT STRONG GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS

The available Greek strong ground motion records to date are used in order to study the duration of strong-motion in Greece, covering magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.9 and distances from 1 km to 128 km. An attenuation relation of strong-motion duration is calculated and compared to earlier existing similar relations proposed for Greece and Japan. Furthermore, the seismic hazard for the area of Greece is assessed, using the strong-motion parameters of duration and peak ground acceleration. The results are presented in the form of a map according to which Greece is classified in four different categories of equal seismic hazard.     

Design Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction for Perth Metropolitan Area with Microtremor Measurements for Site Characterization

Perth is the largest city in Western Australia and home to three-quarters of the state's residents. In recent decades, there have been a lot of earthquake activities just east of Perth in an area known as the South-West Seismic Zone. Previous numerical results of site response analyses based on limited available geology information for PMA indicated that Perth Basin might amplify the bedrock motion by more than 10 times at some frequencies and at some sites. Hence, more detailed studies on site characterization and amplification are necessary. The microtremor method using spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) processing is a useful tool for gaining thickness and shear wave velocity (SWV) of sediments and has been adopted in many previous studies. In this study, the response spectrum of rock site corresponding to the 475-year return period for PMA is defined according to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) based on the latest ground motion attenuation model of Southwest Western Australia. Site characterization in PMA is performed using two microtremor measurements, namely SPAC technique and H/V method. The clonal selection algorithm (CSA) is introduced to perform direct inversion of SPAC curves to determine the soil profiles of representative PMA sites investigated in this study. Using the simulated bedrock motion as input, the responses of the soil sites are estimated using numerical method based on the shear-wave velocity vs. depth profiles determined from the SPAC technique. The response spectrum of the earthquake ground motion on surface of each site is derived from the numerical results of the site response analysis, and compared with the respective design spectrum defined in the Australian Earthquake Loading Code. The comparison shows that the code spectra are conservative in the short period range, but may slightly underestimate the response spectrum at some long period range.     

NEW EMPIRICAL RESPONSE SPECTRAL ATTENUATION LAWS FOR MODERATE EUROPEAN EARTHQUAKES

This paper presents response spectral attenuation laws used in the new French Safety Rule, which is the reference for nuclear safety studies in France. Attenuation laws were derived from 965 horizontal and 485 vertical components from a two-step inversion method and accounts for geometrical spreading, anelastic attenuation and geological site condition. The datasets are mainly constituted of European strong motion records (83%) recently collected and homogeneously processed. In order to complete the distribution data beyond magnitude 6, a few American records were added, representing 17% of the datasets. The magnitude type and source-to-site distance definitions chosen to derive the laws are tested with respect to other definitions. These parametric tests induce a conservative law, for some magnitude and distance ranges of interest. The residual values between observed and predicted spectral accelerations are studied and do not exhibit any bias. The inferred laws are in good agreement with classical strong motion attenuation laws.     

SEISMIC DESIGN REGULATION CODES: CONTRIBUTION OF K-NET DATA TO SITE EFFECT EVALUATION

The purpose of this study is to compare the site effect section of building codes (EC8 and UBC97) with the set of data provided by the Kyoshin network. In order to obtain a set of site coefficients and spectral shapes, we have first deduced an attenuation law for both horizontal and vertical motion. Site conditions are represented by the shear velocity averaged over the upper 30 m (V _s ³⁰). Our site classification (4 categories similar to those proposed in the new ECS and the UBC97) is based on borehole investigations at every station. This classification has permitted to distinguish clearly four response spectra which demonstrates the efficiency of V _s ³⁰ as characterising site conditions. Our law is then used to test site coefficients and spectral shapes of building codes ECS and UBC97. Concerning spectral shapes and site coefficients, our results are found to be in good agreement with EC8 and UBC97 only if category B (400<V _s ³⁰<800 m/s) is taken as reference. We also conclude that a site which is characterised as “rock” on geological criteria can not generally be classified in category A (V _s ³⁰>800 m/s). This suggests that classification in category A should be based only on field measurements. Concerning vertical motion, our analysis of the K-NET data shows that the ratio av/ah (vertical peak ground acceleration over horizontal peak ground acceleration) is between 0.50 and 0.68.     

Technical Note: Practical Challenges Facing the Selection of Conditional Spectrum-Compatible Accelerograms

There are various possibilities for the selection and scaling of ground motions for advanced seismic assessment of buildings using nonlinear response-history analyses. As part of an on-going project looking at building-specific loss assessment in Italy, this article highlights a number of challenges currently facing the use of conditional spectra for ground motion selection in practice, essentially related to the limited amount of seismic hazard information that is publicly available. To illustrate the points being made, the challenges faced when trying to develop conditional spectra and select spectrum-compatible accelerograms for a rock site in Napoli, Italy, are described and the seismic assessment results obtained for a number of reinforced concrete wall structures are presented. Aside from providing practitioners with an appreciation of the potential difficulty associated with using conditional spectra for record selection, this technical note should also motivate national authorities to provide more background information on national seismic hazard data and detailed guidance for record selection.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model of West Bengal,India

We deliver a next-generation Probabilistic Seismic Hazard model of West Bengal based on improved seismogenic source characterization considering both the Layered Polygonal sources & Tectonic sources in the hypocentral depth range of 0–25 km & 25–70 km, seismic local-specific site condition, and adaption of appropriate region specific ground motion prediction equations in a logic tree framework. The surface consistent Probabilistic seismic hazard distribution in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) & 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA) at different time periods for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been generated and the design response spectra computed.     

PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf,Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.

Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.     

SITE AMPLIFICATION FACTOR IN ANCHORAGE,ALASKA BASED ON LONG PERIOD MICROTREMORS

Long period microtremors with periods ranging from 0.5 to 10 seconds were measured in the Anchorage metropolitan area. Two horizontal components of motion were recorded at 81 sites uniformly distributed throughout the basin with spatial resolution of about 2 km. Recording at each site was done for 300 seconds with a sampling rate of 20 Hz. Repeated measurements were performed at a bedrock reference site simultaneously with the measurements in the field. The measurements were completed in six days. In addition, multiple recordings were obtained concurrently at the reference bedrock site and a sediment site. Based on these measurements the Fourier spectra were calculated for each of the site. Ground motion amplification is determined in terms of spectral ratio of horizontal spectral amplitudes at a sediment site and the reference bedrock site. Mean spectral ratio contours were evaluated for different period bands. The results show that for period band 3 to 5 seconds the spectral ratio contours agree well with the ground failure susceptiblity map of Anchorage.     

EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF SITE EFFECTS BY MEANS OF H/V SPECTRAL RATIOS AT THE LOCATIONS OF STRONG MOTION ACCELEROMETERS IN ISRAEL

Acceleration data from local and regional earthquakes is of prime importance in evaluating the seismic hazard. Consequently, strong motion accelerometers are currently installed at more than 60 locations in Israel. We have explored the possibility of site amplification effects at 10 sites where local earthquakes triggered strong motion accelerometers by integrating empirical and analytical estimations. Implementing H/V spectral ratio techniques using 15 accelerograms from nine earthquakes, 105 seismograms shear-wave records of 35 local and regional earthquakes and seismograms of microtremors were used in the empirical evaluations. The subsurface models were constructed by integrating available geological and geophysical information at the analysed site with empirically evaluated site response functions. Amplification effects of factor 3-6 are observed at various frequencies in the 0.8-6.0 Hz band. Through the analysis process it became evident that the instant availability of many useful time windows of microtremors provides systematic estimations of the fundamental resonance frequency of each site and their associated amplification levels, which are similar to those obtained from H/V spectral ratios of seismograms and accelerograms and to those inferred from the subsurface geology. Analytical transfer functions should be reviewed with respect to empirical site response evaluations. Estimations that are based on only one approach may be totally misleading.     

STRONG MOTION VERSUS WEAK MOTION: IMPLICATIONS FOR MICROZONATION STUDIES

A set of mainshock and aftershock data following the Chamoli earthquake of March 29, 1999, recorded at a single station viz. Gopeshwar, has been studied. Particularly, the utility of the use of aftershock/weak motion data for site characterisation in seismic microzonation studies is investigated. The analysis of aftershock and mainshock data indicates that the spectral shape and amplification is quite different during the main-shock and the aftershock. This, in turn, implies that the use of weak motion/aftershock records may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the expected ground motion during a strong earthquake. Further, it has been shown that the site characteristics estimated from H/V ratios are not stable in the near field conditions, even for weak motion data.     

A PROCEDURE FOR ESTIMATING INPUT ENERGY SPECTRA FOR SEISMIC DESIGN

In this paper, the damage potential of an earthquake ground motion is evaluated in terms of the total power of the acceleration of the ground motion. By assuming an appropriate spectral shape for the input energy spectrum, and using the well-known Parseval theorem for evaluating the total power of a random signal, the peak amplification factor for the equivalent input energy velocity spectrum can be determined. It is shown that the peak amplification factor for the input energy spectrum depends on the peak-ground-acceleration to peak-ground-velocity ratio and duration of the strong motion phase of the ground motion. Values for the equivalent input energy velocity amplification factor vary from about 2 to 10 for most of the recorded ground motions used in this study. Although a considerable scatter of data is observed in this study, the peak amplification factor predicted by the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the ground acceleration provides a fairly good estimate of the mean value of the peak input energy compared to that determined from inelastic dynamic time history analyses, particularly for systems with high damping and low lateral strength. The peak amplification factor derived in this paper provides a more consistent approach for estimation of seismic demand when compared to an earlier empirical expression used for the formulation of duration-dependent inelastic seismic design spectra, even though only a slight difference in the required lateral strength results from the use of the new formula.     

Site Classification Assessment for Estimating Empirical Attenuation Relationships for Central-Northern Italy Earthquakes

The aim of this article is to investigate the ground motion attenuation of the most industrialized and populated regions of Italy, evaluating the capability of different approaches to estimate site dependent models. The 5.2 local magnitude earthquake on November 24, 2004 shocked the areas of Northern Italy producing damage of about 215 million euros. The data set, including 243 earthquakes of local magnitude up to 5.2, has been collected in the period December 2002–October 2005 by 30 three-component seismic stations managed by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Milano (INGV-MI). Empirical attenuation relationships have been estimated for horizontal peak ground velocity (PGHV), acceleration (PGHA), displacement (PGHD), and for response spectral acceleration (SA) for periods between 0.1 and 1.5 s. To estimate suitable attenuation models, in particular for sites characterized by thick sedimentary geological formations, a soil discrimination based on EU8 code can lead to wrong evaluations. On the contrary, a classification based on H/V spectral ratios of seismic ambient noise (NHV) allows the models to fit better real and predicted data and to reduce the uncertainties of the process. For each receiver, NHV have been strengthened by additional H/V spectral ratio of earthquake data (EHV), calculated considering different portions of the analysed signals. In order to validate the PGHA attenuation relationship for greater magnitudes, accelerometric records, relative to Central-Northern Italy strong motions occurring in the last 30 years, have been collected and superimposed to our attenuation curves.