Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Discrete Faults in Northwestern Pakistan: Part II – Results of Seismic Hazard Analysis

This article is the second of two companion articles that evaluate seismic hazard in northwestern (NW) Pakistan. Using the properties and characteristics of discrete faults in NW Pakistan described in the first article, probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses for 11 major cities in NW Pakistan were conducted. The results from both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses exhibit good agreement. Median deterministic spectra compare favorably with uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for 475- or 975-year return periods, while the 84^th-percentile deterministic spectra compare favorably with the UHS for a 2475-year return period. Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) for 2475-year return periods exceed 1.0 g for the cities of Kaghan and Muzaffarabad, which are surrounded by major faults. The PGAs for a 475-year return period for these cities are approximately 0.6g — 3 to 4 times greater than estimates by previous studies using diffuse areal source zones. The PGAs for some cities located farther from faults (including Astor, Malakand, Mangla, Peshawar, and Talagang) are similar to those predicted using diffuse areal source zones. Seismic hazard maps for PGA and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 s and 1.0 s corresponding to three return period (2475, 975, and 475 years) were produced. Based on deaggregation results, a discussion of the conditional mean spectra for engineering applications is presented.     

Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Discrete Faults in Northwestern Pakistan: Part I – Methodology and Evaluation

This article is the first of two companion articles that evaluate the seismic hazard in northwestern Pakistan. The area, located at the western edge of the Himalayas, has numerous active faults including the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Mantle Thrust (MMT). This article describes the methodology used to perform regional deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Here, seismic sources were defined from 32 identified faults while prior studies have been based on diffuse seismicity and areal source zones. Fault parameters were selected using available data and empirical correlations for faults elsewhere. Recurrence relations were constructed for all discrete faults based on both historical and instrumented seismicity in addition to geologic evidence. Due to lack of region specific attenuation relationships, four plate boundary attenuation relations from the Next Generation Attenuation of Ground Motions Project [Abrahamson et al., 2008 Abrahamson, N., Atkinson, G., Boore, D., Bozorgnia, Y., Campbell, K., Chiou, B., Idriss, I. M., Silva, W. and Youngs, R. 2008. Comparisons of the NGA ground-motion relations. Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 45–66. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] were employed to predict ground motions. Predicted ground motion parameters are compared to measurements from the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake. In the companion article, the methodology developed and evaluated here is used to conduct deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses for the entire study region.     

PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf,Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.

Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model of West Bengal,India

We deliver a next-generation Probabilistic Seismic Hazard model of West Bengal based on improved seismogenic source characterization considering both the Layered Polygonal sources & Tectonic sources in the hypocentral depth range of 0–25 km & 25–70 km, seismic local-specific site condition, and adaption of appropriate region specific ground motion prediction equations in a logic tree framework. The surface consistent Probabilistic seismic hazard distribution in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) & 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (PSA) at different time periods for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been generated and the design response spectra computed.     

Spectral Attenuation Relations at Soft Sites Based on Existing Attenuation Relations for Rock Sites

A simple and general method based on well-known random vibration theory is used to compute spectral attenuation relations at soft sites based on existing spectral attenuation relations at rock sites. The method consists of: (1) computation, for given magnitude and distance, of the expected Fourier amplitude spectrum associated with the median rock response spectrum computed with the attenuation relation; (2) inclusion of site effects characterized by a frequency-dependent, linear, or nonlinear transfer function; and (3) computation of the response spectrum at the soft site.     

Seismic Reconnaissance and Observed Damage after the Mw 6.8, 24 August 2016 Chauk (Central Myanmar) Earthquake

On 24 August 2016, Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred near Chauk, Central Myanmar. This earthquake caused a significant amount of damage over a very large number of historical monuments. After providing a general summary of the regional tectonic settings and seismicity, the observed ground motion has been discussed, and performance of structures in the epicentral area is addressed, focusing on the damage observed in both historical and recent constructions. The observed damage patterns and their extent are analyzed and interpreted in light of observed damage that was found. Lastly, seismic fragility curves of local buildings have been derived.     

Prediction of High-Damping Seismic Demands in Eastern North America

This article investigates high-damping seismic demands and associated damping reduction factors in Eastern North America (ENA). A database of hybrid empirical records with moment magnitudes M ≥ 6.0 is first studied to evaluate 5%- to 30%-damped seismic demands. A new magnitude- and distance-based equation is proposed to predict ENA spectral displacements and then used to characterize their sensitivity to variations in period, magnitude, epicentral distance and site conditions. The proposed equation is also used to assess damping reduction factors in ENA. The results contribute to improved assessment of seismic demands in ENA while accounting for added-damping in structural seismic design.