USING GIS IN THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERED LANDSLIDE HAZARDS

Summit Ridge, located in the North Santa Cruz Mountains, California, was heavily affected by landsliding during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (M_w=7.0). Widespread shallow failures, along with 17 deep-seated landslides, caused extensive damage. In order to study possible methods of assessing landslide hazard a geographical information system (GIS) was utilised. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismological data were used in a deterministic analysis using two standard earthquake slope stability models (pseudo-static and Newmark displacement). The models were used to assess the landslide potential that existed during the Loma Prieta event. It was found that, of these two models, the Newmark displacement model proved most successful at predicting the location of shallow unstable slopes. However, because both models are deterministic in nature they did not take into account any of the error and uncertainty in the input parameters. Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement method of analysis was developed. This was achieved by incorporating the principles behind a recently developed probabilistic technique which utilises the pseudo-static slope stability model. The method calculates the probability that a slope will exceed a certain critical value of Newmark displacement and thus fail. The use of such an analysis resulted in a more realistic distribution of hazard when compared with the distribution of actual landslides triggered by the 1989 earthquake. Subsequent to this, the probabilistic method was used to undertake a landslide hazard assessment for Summit Ridge given a postulated earthquake located on the Northern East Bay segment of the Hayward fault.     

Seismic Site Response Modeling for Three Missouri River Highway Bridges

Three highway bridges spanning the Missouri River flood plain were selected for evaluation of seismic site response for moderate size earthquakes emanating from the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States. The NMSZ is known to be capable spawning earthquakes larger than magnitude (M) 7.0, four of which occurred in a three-month period between 1811 and 1812, and the M_w 6.0 earthquake of October 1895 centered near Charleston, Missouri. This study evaluated the likely impacts of long period motion of these historic earthquakes on three long-span highway bridges using geotechnical data obtained from recent investigations. Our results suggest site amplification between 6× and 9×, depending on the magnitude and epicentral distance. We believe that threshold magnitude for serious foundation failure and damage to these bridges is between M_w 6.5 and 6.6. Above these magnitudes widespread liquefaction is predicted, which would effect the peak horizontal acceleration and spectral accelerations, causing the ground motions to be different than predicted. Increase in amplification of the response spectra also should be expected where the periods are higher than 1.0 sec. Therefore, M_w 6.5+ earthquakes at ranges 210–260 km could be expected to engender resonant frequency problems for multiple span bridges and tall buildings (10 to 25 stories) in channel corridors containing 20 to 46 m of unconsolidated sediment.     

THE 9 JULY 551 AD BEIRUT EARTHQUAKE,EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION

Analysis of the Byzantine primary and secondary sources for identifying the historical earthquakes in Syria and Lebanon reveals that a large earthquake (M _s =7.2) occurred in July 9, 551 AD along the Lebanese littoral and was felt over a very large area in the eastern Mediterranean region. It was a shallow-focus earthquake, associated with a regional tsunami along the Lebanese coast, a local landslide near Al-Batron town, and a large fire in Beirut. It caused heavy destruction with great loss of lives to several Lebanese cities, mainly Beirut, with a maximum intensity between IX-X (EMS-92). The proposed epicentre of the event is offshore of Beirut at about 34.00°N, 35.50° E, indicating that the earthquake appears to be the result of movement along the strike-slip left-lateral Roum fault in southern Lebanon.     

REAPPRAISAL OF MAGNITUDE OF 20TH CENTURY EARTHQUAKES IN SWITZERLAND

We reappraise the material needed to assess the 20th-century seismicity of Switzerland and of the adjacent areas of the Alps in terms of magnitude. For this we make use of macroseismic reports and literature and by calculating the surface-wave magnitude from the Prague formula of all significant earthquakes in the region. No attempt is made to relocate earthquake positions; instead their reliability is ranked using existing solutions and macroseismic observations We find that for small earthquakes (M _s >4.5), which constitute the bulk of the events in the region, the calculation of M _s observed at relatively short distances, requires station and distance corrections which can be significant. Also we find that recomputed Ms estimates differ from those reported in other earthquake catalogues. From this reappraisal of M _s and from a uniform re-evaluation of the associated macroseismic data, we derive a stable correlations between M _s and felt areas that can be used to assess the magnitude of historical, pre-instrumental, events for which only isoseismal radii (r _i ) and the associated intensities (I _i ) are available. We examined the conversion of surface-wave magnitude into moment magnitude, a conversion that presents some interesting problems for relatively small events for which the M _s -log(Mo) scaling changes. We conclude that the rate of moment release derived from events of M _s >4.0 is small, and that it should be associated with horizontal and vertical velocity rates of less than 1 mm/yr, too small vo be confirmed by GPS measurements over short periods of time so that can be used to constrain hazard assessment.     

Reconnaissance Report on Geotechnical Engineering Aspect of the 2015 Gorkha,Nepal, Earthquake

An earthquake of moment magnitude M_w 7.8 struck Nepal at 06:11 UTC on April 25, 2015. Field reconnaissance focused on the geotechnical engineering aspect of the earthquake was carried out in the Kathmandu Valley and regions near the epicenter. This paper presents briefly the geology of Nepal, the accelerogram, and results of standard penetration tests at selected sites in the valley. The study shows the failure case histories including landslides, road embankment settlement, bridge foundations and abutment damage, and liquefaction. The paper also highlights the impact of local soil properties and basin and ridge effect on the severity of damage.     

Earthquake‐related temperature changes in two neighboring hot springs at Xiangcheng,China

Pre‐earthquake and postearthquake temperature changes were documented in two hot springs at Xiangcheng. Pre‐earthquake changes were documented in spring I, 13 days before and 106 km away from the M_s 5.8 Zhongdian earthquake. The 11‐year cutoff spring spouted again, and the spouted water was 24°C hotter than the former escaping gas. Postearthquake changes were documented in spring II following the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, approximately 425 km away from the epicenter. Temperature in spring II showed a step‐like increase with a magnitude of 4°C induced by the earthquake. Spring I which is 0.3 m apart from spring II did not show a sudden change following the earthquake. However, temperatures in the two springs were identical after the Wenchuan earthquake. It indicates that the earthquake generated new hydraulic connectivity between springs I and II, and the heat transport between the two springs accounts for the postearthquake temperature changes.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment of the NW Himalayan Fold-and-Thrust Belt,Pakistan, Using Probabilistic Approach

The Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) based on probabilistic approach has been carried out for the entire seismically active NW Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt in Pakistan. Additional information in the form of earthquake catalog, delineation of 41 active faults in a structural map, their relationship to the seismicity, and establishment of seismotectonic zones has also been undertaken.

From the distribution of the 813 events within the study area, it appears that seismicity (≥4.0 M_w) is associated with both surface and blind faults. The clustering of events in specific parts along the surface faults shows that some fault segments, especially in the hinterland zone, are more active. In parts of the active deformational front, like the Salt Range, southern Potwar and Bannu, lesser seismic activity (≥4.0 M_w) could be due to damping effect of the thick Precambrian salt.

A majority of the earthquakes (86%) range in magnitude from 4.0 to 4.9 M_w, followed by 107 events (13%) ranging from 5.0 to 5.9 M_w. The remaining 1% range from 6.0 to 6.7 M_w. There is a predominance of shallow seismicity (<50 km focal depth). Larger magnitudes events are more in the hinterland zone. In contrast, based on distribution of 683 (≥4.0 M_w) events, a deeper level of seismicity (50 to 200 km) prevails especially in the adjoining Hindukush Range of Afghanistan.

Four seismotectonic zones have been established in the area. The b value is highest for the Peshawar-Hazara Seismic Zone (PHSZ) at 1.27, followed by 1.12 for the Surghar-Kurram Seismic Zone (SKSZ). The Swat-Astor Seismic Zone (SASZ) and Kohat-Potwar-Salt Range Seismic Zone (KPSZ) have b values of 0.99 and 1.03, respectively, thereby indicating the occurrence of more events of relatively higher magnitude as compared to the other two zones. The mean activity rate of the earthquakes (λ) ranges from 4.26 to 1.73. In decreasing order, the values are 4.26, 2.62, 2.07, and 1.73 for PHSZ, SASZ, KPSZ, and SKSZ, respectively. Using four regression relationships, the maximum potential magnitude (m₁) has been determined for the 4 Quaternary faults. The highest value within each seismic zone represents its m₁. Our calculations show that m₁ is 7.8 in the hinterland (SASZ and PHSZ) and 7.4 in the foreland part (KPSZ and SKSZ).

SHA, incorporating probabilistic approach, has been undertaken at 10 sites, along with disaggregation at the assigned amplitude of 0.2g. Pakistan does not have an attenuation equation of its own. The two equations of Ambraseys et al. (1996) Ambraseys, N. N., Simpson, K. A. and Bommer, J. J. 1996. Prediction of horizontal response spectra in Europe. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 25: 371–400. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] and Boore et al. (1997) Boore, D. M., Joyner, W. B. and Fumal, T. E. 1997. Equations from estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western North American earthquakes: a summary of recent work. Seismological Research Letters, 68: 128–153. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar] have been used and the results obtained using the equation of Boore et al. (1997) Boore, D. M., Joyner, W. B. and Fumal, T. E. 1997. Equations from estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western North American earthquakes: a summary of recent work. Seismological Research Letters, 68: 128–153. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar] have been preferred. In the Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the PGA values with 10% probability of exceedance in the 50 years, i.e., the return period of 475, have been determined using the EZ-FRISK (6.2 beta version) software. Best-estimated seismic hazard parameters (λ, m₁, m₀, and the β value) of the four seismic zones were used as the input. Results were generated in the form of total hazard curves. Values obtained range from 0.08g (for Bannu) to 0.21g (for Malakand and Kohat). For the other seven sites they are: Astore (0.082g), Kaghan (0.12g), Muzaffarabad (0.13g), Islamabad and Peshawar (0.15g), Talagang (0.16g), and Mangla (0.18g). High population density and more poorly constructed structures in Rawalpindi (twin city of Islamabad) and Peshawar make them more hazardous.     

The timescale and mechanisms of fault sealing and water‐rock interaction after an earthquake

Hydrogeochemical monitoring of a basalt‐hosted aquifer, which contains Ice Age meteoric water and is situated at 1220 m below sea level in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, northern Iceland, has been ongoing since July 2002. Based on hydrogeochemical changes following an earthquake of magnitude (M_w) 5.8 on 16 September 2002, we constrained the timescales of post‐seismic fault sealing and water–rock interaction. We interpret that the earthquake ruptured a hydrological barrier, permitting a rapid influx of chemically and isotopically distinct Ice Age meteoric water from a second aquifer. During the two subsequent years, we monitored a chemical and isotopic recovery towards pre‐earthquake aquifer compositions, which we interpret to have been mainly facilitated by fault‐sealing processes. This recovery was interrupted in November 2004 by a second rupturing event, which was probably induced by two minor earthquakes and which reopened the pathway to the second aquifer. We conclude that the timescale of fault sealing was approximately 2 years and that the approach to isotopic equilibrium (from global meteoric water line) was approximately 18% after >10⁴ years.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF METROPOLITAN TEHRAN,IRAN

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran, the capital of Iran. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Tehran and its vicinity in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 950 years. Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least 6 times, Tehran has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. The oldest one happened in the 4th century BC. A collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events and covering the period from the 4th century BC to 1999 is then used. Seismic sources are modelled and recurrence relationship is established. For this purpose the method proposed by Kijko [2000] was employed considering uncertainty in magnitude and incomplete earthquake catalogue. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and three weighted attenuation relationships; Ramazi [1999], 0.4, Ambraseys and Bommer [1991], 0.35, and Sarma and Srbulov [1996], 0.25. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 12×11 grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for 10% probability of exceedance in two life cycles of 50 and 100 years are presented. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.27(g) to 0.46(g) for a return period of 475 years and from 0.33(g) to 0.55(g) for a return period of 950 years. Since population is very dense in Tehran and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.     

STRONG GROUND MOTIONS AND DAMAGE PATTERNS FROM THE 1999 DUZCE EARTHQUAKE IN TURKEY

The M _w , 7.1 Duzce earthquake occurred on 12 November 1999 along the North Anatolian Fault in northwestern Turkey. This paper documents observations from a field reconnaissance team, addressing two principal aspects of this significant earthquake: the recorded ground motions and the distribution and severity of the earthquake effects on the built environment. In general, the recorded ground motions from this earthquake were smaller than predicted by ground motion predictive equations available at the time of the event. One anomalous recording is presented and potential causes for this irregular motion based on observations from field reconnaissance are discussed. The effects of rupture directivity on the near-fault recordings are assessed and the effects of soil conditions on the recorded ground motions are examined. The patterns of building damage based on post-earthquake reconnaissance are presented for the most strongly shaken cities in the near-fault region: Duzce, Kaynasli, and Bolu. Damage in Duzce was concentrated in the southern part of the city, which is underlain by softer sediments. Damage in Bolu was distributed evenly throughout the city; whereas damage was concentrated on more recent alluvial sediments in Kaynasli. No evidence of liquefaction or ground failure was observed in the populated areas surveyed after the earthquake.     

Geotechnical Reconnaissance of the 2016 ML6.6 Meinong Earthquake in Taiwan

On February 6, 2015, a local magnitude (M_L) 6.6 earthquake struck southern Taiwan, devastating the Tainan area. A field investigation was conducted by a survey team from the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering immediately after the earthquake. This paper summarizes the observed geotechnical damage features caused by the earthquake, including liquefaction, slope sliding, levee failure, and dam performance. Several liquefaction sites were observed despite the intensity of ground shaking being moderate (peak ground acceleration, ~0.2 g). Most of these sites were originally old ponds that were backfilled during different periods in the last three to eight decades. Two significant types of damage to the levee of the Tseng-wen River were observed. At the Jianshan site, a typical type of levee damage was observed, in which the level crest subsided and the side slope developed several cracks. At the Rixin site, a flow-type of failure caused tremendous loss of levee (~400 m in total) at three adjacent locations. The levee embankments had “flowed” up to 60 m into the river.     

The Numerical Study of Base-Isolated Buildings Under Near-Field and Far-Field Earthquakes

The behavior of base-isolated building frame is investigated with the help of a numerical study for far-field and near-field earthquakes with directivity and fling-step effects. Both design-level and extreme-level earthquakes are considered. Selected response parameters are peak floor displacement, acceleration, base shear, and isolator displacement. Inelastic behavior of base-isolated structure during the earthquake is investigated performing nonlinear time history analysis of a ten-story building frame. This study shows that base isolation is not effective for near-field earthquakes. Even for design-level earthquake, the frame gets significantly into inelastic range for earthquakes with fling-step effect.     

Site Effects at Long Periods from Digital Strong Motion Records of the KiK-net,Japan

The high-quality digital records of the Japanese KiK-net were examined, with the aim of studying the influence of local site conditions on the displacement spectral ordinates at long periods. The attention was limited to those records for which the velocity profiles up to 100–200 m depth were known, and corresponding surface and borehole accelerograms were available. Based on the available records and with the support of 1D numerical simulations, different aspects that may have an influence on the amplification of long period spectral ordinates were studied, including the bedrock velocity profile, the site classification using V_s,30, and the earthquake magnitude.

Small amplification factors at long periods were found, ranging from 1 to 1.3, with median value from 1.05 to 1.1, for Eurocode 8 site classes B and C, respectively. Only for two records on soft soils (at the boundary between Eurocode 8 classes C and D), from small magnitude earthquakes, large amplification factors were obtained, up to about 4. A good correlation was found of the amplification levels with the response spectral ratio D(T₀)/D(10), where D(T₀) and D(10) are displacement spectral ordinates of the input signal at bedrock, at the fundamental period T₀ of the soil profile and at T = 10 s, respectively.     

FINITE FAULT MODELLING OF NEAR-FIELD ROCK MOTIONS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

Due to lack of strong motion records, point-source and finite-fault models have been used to simulate far-field motions at Memphis and St. Louis Cities from earthquake events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. However, near-field rock motions and their associated uncertainties have never been studied within this zone. The objectives of this study are to develop a simple procedure to account for the uncertainty effect of earthquake source parameters, to analyze the sensitivity of near-field rock motions to input source parameters, and finally, to generate rock motions at two sites located within 11 km from the southwestern segment (strike-fault) and a third site bove the Reelfoot Rift (reverse fault) using a well-validated finite-fault simulation program; FINSIM. An equal-weight logic tree was developed to ensure that the assumed uncertainties are within physical, geological, and seismological constraints. For each site, 100 acceleration time histories with various combinations of parameter uncertainties were respectively simulated for an earthquake of M _w 7.0, 7.5, and 8.0 from each of the two faults. Their average spectral accelerations were in good agreement with those derived from the attenuation relation-ships representative to the Central and Eastern United States. Numerical simulations indicated that spectral accelerations are sensitive to the slip velocity, depth to top of fault, fault strike, slip distribution, and hypocentre location along the strike.     

IS THERE A NEAR-FIELD FOR SMALL-TO-MODERATE MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES?

The major hazard posed by earthquakes is often thought to be due to moderate to large magnitude events. However, there have been many cases where earthquakes of moderate and even small magnitude have caused very significant destruction when they have coincided with population centres. Even though the area of intense ground shaking caused by such events is generally small, the epicentral motions can be severe enough to cause damage even in well-engineered structures. Two issues are addressed here, the first being the identification of the minimum earthquake magnitude likely to cause damage to engineered structures and the limits of the near-field for small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The second issue addressed is whether features of near-field ground motions such as directivity, which can significantly enhance the destructive potential, occur in small-to-moderate magnitude events. The accelerograms from the 1986 San Salvador (El Salvador) earthquake indicate that it may be unconservative to assume that near-field directivity effects only need to be considered for earthquakes of moment magnitude M 6.5 and greater.     

Inelastic Displacement Ratios for Seismic Assessment of Structures Subjected to Forward-Directivity Near-Fault Ground Motions

This article presents results of a statistical study focused on evaluating inelastic displacement ratios (i.e., ratio of maximum inelastic displacement with respect to maximum elastic displacement demand) of degrading and non degrading single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems subjected to forward-directivity near-fault ground motions. C_R spectra are computed for normalized periods of vibration with respect to the predominant period of the ground motion to provide a better ground motion characterization. This period normalization allows reducing the record-to-record variability in the estimation of C_R. An equation to obtain estimates of C_R for the seismic assessment of structures exposed to forward-directivity near-fault ground motions is proposed.     

Performance of Structures in the Mw 6.1 Mae Lao Earthquake in Thailand on May 5, 2014 and Implications for Future Construction

An M_w 6.1 earthquake struck northern Thailand on the 5^th of May 2014. The epicenter was located near Mae Lao district in Chiang Rai province. The earthquake caused unprecedented damage to structures, the most damaging earthquake ever in recorded Thai history. Five hundred and ninety-four buildings out of 10,863 were damaged to the extent that they were unsafe for occupancy. This article presents a reconnaissance investigation of damage to buildings and bridges in the two districts—Phan and Mae Lao—which suffered the most damage. Attention is paid to the performance of buildings with similar configurations and structural design, but with different layout of unreinforced masonry infills as non-structural components.     

Simulation for Ludian (August 3, 2014, MW 6.2) and Nepal (April 25, 2015, MW 7.8) Earthquakes with Improved Stochastic Point Source Method

The Ludian earthquake (M_W 6.2) and Nepal earthquake (M_W 7.8) are parameterized and then simulated using a new improved version of the stochastic point source method based on a proposed equivalent distance (R_EQL) measure. The improved method considers uniform slip distribution along the fault and is validated by comparing the simulated Fourier response spectrum. Simulated ShakeMaps of Ludian and Nepal earthquakes in terms of PGA also indicate that the results of the improved method are in good agreement with finite-fault method with high efficiency.     

南京长江大桥桥头堡抗震加固受力性能研究

为研究南京长江大桥桥头堡填充墙加固对结构抗震性能的影响,提出考虑较高填充墙开裂的双斜撑模型,用于罕遇地震工况下桥头堡的抗震性能计算,同时提出考虑填充墙加固后刚度增强效应的建模方法。利用SAP2000建立了加固前后用于多遇地震工况、设防地震工况及罕遇地震工况的分析模型,并选取了桥头堡在1974年经历的实际地震激励时程及El-Centro地震激励时程作为激励进行了加固前后结构的抗震性能分析比较。研究发现,填充墙加固后桥头堡的抗震性能有了明显提升,其位移响应峰值约下降8%~23%,层间位移角响应峰值约下降12%~22%,而且桥头堡结构在设防地震情况下2个方向的层间位移角均满足了规范要求。另外,在罕遇地震工况下,未加固的填充墙开裂会使结构的扭转刚度下降,而填充墙加固可有效提升结构的扭转刚度,降低桥头堡在地震时发生扭转振动的概率。这2种地震荷载激励的分析结果差异约在3%~21%不等,且响应峰值出现的位置也有一些不同,故对桥头堡进行抗震时程分析时建议选取多条地震波输入综合分析。研究成果可为同类型的钢筋混凝土建筑遗产的抗震加固提供借鉴和参考。     

A Fast and Efficient Simulation of the Far-Fault and Near-Fault Earthquake Ground Motions Associated with the June 17 and 21, 2000, Earthquakes in South Iceland

The two M_w 6.5 earthquakes on June 17 and 21, 2000, respectively, in the populated South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) significantly augmented the Icelandic database of strong ground motions, and several strong velocity pulses were recorded at near-fault sites. The strong motions are interpreted via the Specific Barrier Model (SBM) and a mathematical model of near-fault velocity pulses. The data indicates self-similar source scaling and significantly greater attenuation of seismic waves than in other interplate regions. Through inversion of the data a new attenuation function for the SISZ has been adopted, which results in unbiased simulations. For the first time, the characteristics of the recorded near-fault pulses have been identified and compared to the worldwide database of such records. The SBM and the near-fault pulse model combine naturally in a fast and efficient synthesis of realistic, broad-band strong ground motions in the far-fault and near-fault region. Such simulations are showcased for the June 2000 earthquakes and indicate that the modeling approach adopted in this study is an effective tool for the estimation of realistic earthquake ground motions in the SISZ.