The 1561 Earthquake(s) in Southern Italy: New Insights into a Complex Seismic Sequence

In the summer of 1561, a strong seismic sequence struck southern Italy, then the Spanish-ruled Kingdom of Naples. Both the Italian seismological tradition and the latest catalogues locate it in the Vallo di Diano (Diano Valley), a low-seismicity intermontane basin 100 km south-east of Naples. We explore the hypothesis that current perception of the 1561 earthquake is distorted by the nature of the historical dataset from which its parameters have been assessed, and which mostly derive from a single—albeit very detailed—primary source. We present and discuss several previously unconsidered original accounts. Our results cast doubts on the traditional interpretation of the earthquake, which could have been either one Vallo di Diano mainshock or several strong earthquakes within a time/space window compact enough for contemporary viewers to perceive them as one. Unquestionably, there is much more to the 1561 earthquake(s) than previously appeared. We hope that this groundbreaking effort will rekindle the interest of the seismological community in this seismic episode, our knowledge of which is still far from complete.     

Shaking table tests on a stone masonry building: modeling and identification of dynamic properties including soil-foundation-structure interaction

This article presents the identification of dynamic properties of a stone masonry building, followed by numerical simulation of its dynamic response accounting for soil-foundation-structure interaction. The first part regards numerical simulations of the earthquake response of a two-story building prototype with timber floors, made of three-leaf stone masonry without laces. This 1:2 scale prototype was tested on a shaking table in its as-built state and after strengthening, at the National Technical University of Athens. Afterward, the building prototype was modeled with flat shell elements and equivalent frames (common frames and macro-elements), for an investigation of its linear and nonlinear seismic response, assuming base fixity. Numerical results were compared to the experimental ones, which yielded conclusions on the considerations of each employed modeling strategy, as well as its efficiency and applicability. The second part considers the effect of soil-structure interaction using appropriately modified foundation stiffness values to account for the foundation soil flexibility. Comparison of the numerical results with and without SSI effects showed how the flexibility of the soil-foundation system and the soil-structure interaction modified the system’s modal characteristics and response within the elastic range, in terms of both seismic loads and deformations, and produced conclusions about its consequences on the overall structural stability.     

New discoveries in the Piramide Naranjada in Cahuachi (Peru) using satellite,Ground Probing Radar and magnetic investigations

The detection of buried earthen structures by using remote sensing techniques is still an open issue and a strategic challenge as crucial as it is complex. It is crucial because earthen archaeological remains are widely present thoughtout the world (in South America, Asia, Africa) and it is complex due to the subtle physical contrast between earthen remains and the surrounding subsoil.     

SOIL-STRUCTURE AND SOIL-STRUCTURE-SOIL INTERACTION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE AT THE VOLVI TEST SITE

This paper shows the results of two passive experiments carried out at the European Volvi test site where a scaled building has been constructed. The first experiment was performed to study the motion of the structure excited by two small earthquakes. For one month, six strong-motion recorders were installed within the structure, at the top and at the basement. The analysis of the deformation of the structure has been assessed by computing the spectral ratio between the top and the bottom, with a special focus on soil-structure interaction. An analytical model was then proposed to reproduce the structure and soil-structure system behaviour. The soil-structure interaction was accounted for by using impedance functions. During the second experiment, we concentrated our efforts on the effect of the building vibration on the surface ground motion. An explosive shot was fired and several strong-motion recorders were installed on the ground close to the structure that allowed us to clearly identify a monochromatic wave coming from the building, in the time and frequency domains. This experiment allows us to demonstrate the non-negligible effect of the soil-structure-soil interaction that may disturb the surrounding ground motion.     

SIMULATION OF NONLINEAR SOIL-STRUCTURE INTERACTION ON A SHAKING TABLE

A new method to simulate soil-structure interaction effects in shaking table tests has recently been presented by the authors. In this method, analog circuits or digital signal processors are used to produce soil-foundation interaction motions in real time. Their expressions of soil-structure interaction motions are based on published rigorous formulations of impulse response functions or flexibility functions of foundations resting on or embedded in homogeneous or layered soils of semi-infinite extent. In this paper the method is further extended to take the “far field” soil non-linearity into account. An example of non-linear soil-structure interaction simulation using the present method is also described.     

Safety vs. Economy in Performance-Based Design of Buildings: Inevitable Compromise or False Dilemma?

The objective of the present paper is to investigate the influence of the design objective on the total cost of buildings. A series of reinforced concrete buildings are designed for various design objectives, and the construction cost is calculated. Additionally, the earthquake losses for three different earthquake scenarios are estimated. The total cost of the buildings is calculated as the sum of the construction cost plus the earthquake losses. The whole investigation demonstrates that designing for elastic response against the design earthquake is both the safest and the most economical in long-term option in the case of strong seismic excitations.     

Predicting Probabilistic-Based Strong Ground Motion Time Series for Citadel of Arg-E-Bam (South-East of Iran)

The main objective of this article is to present a probabilistic-based strong motion compatible with the source-path and site soil condition given the probability of exceedence for citadel of Arg-e-Bam site bed rock (South-East of Iran). A Fourier amplitude spectral attenuation relation for bed rock beneath the site is proposed which permits the estimation of time-histories through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis procedure. Due to lack of data, the two well-known simulation techniques, point source and finite fault models have been used for generating hundreds of strong motion as input data. Tens of model parameter values such as stress-drop nucleation points were used, in each specified magnitude-distance, to reduce the uncertainty effects inherently existing in seismological/geological parameters. The proposed attenuation relation is validated by comparing the estimated strong motion, in the form of Fourier amplitude spectral, using the proposed attenuation relation with those of recorded ground motion data at three stations far away from the assumed source so that the results would not be influenced by the near source problems such as directivity and fling step. The results of proposed technique is assessed by comparing the estimated response spectra, with 10% probability of exceedence and 5% damping ratio, with those of traditional uniform hazard spectra. The proposed technique is supposed to be used in retrofitting procedure of international historical adobe structures in Arg-e-Bam site, which have been damaged during the destructive Bam earthquake 2003, Iran     

汶川地震导致的壁画文物震害研究——以广元市觉苑寺大雄宝殿壁画为例

为保护壁画文物,以四川省广元市剑阁县大雄宝殿为例,对汶川地震作用下殿内壁画的震害进行了研究.根据震后勘查结果,讨论了大雄宝殿壁画的典型震害症状,分析了古建筑侧脚构造对壁画抗震的有利影响.根据大雄宝殿壁画加固工艺作法及古建筑榫卯连接特点,建立了大雄宗殿的震前有限元模型.为研究汶川地震作用下壁画的震害特征,首先对其进行了模态分析,然后将模拟汶川地震波进行调幅,然后作用于大雄宝殿进行地震反应分析.通过采用时程分析法,获得了地震作用下不同时刻壁画整体的内力与变形响应峰值,并获得了典型节点的地震响应曲线.结果表明:大雄宝殿壁画开裂与空鼓的主要原因是面层与墙体粘结不牢导致的受拉破坏;地震作用下壁画保持稳定的振动状态;为提高壁画的抗震性能,壁画木框与外墙板间应加强连接,并在空隙处填塞隔震材料,同时应加强壁画本身保养工作.     

Transient Response of Concrete Gravity Dam Considering Dam-Reservoir-Foundation Interaction

This article deals with the finite element analysis of dam with and without fluid-structure, soil-structure and soil-structure-fluid interaction. A two-dimensional direct coupling methodology is proposed to obtain the response of dam-reservoir-foundation system considering fluid-structure and soil-structure interaction simultaneously. The displacement based finite element technique is used to formulate the dam and foundation. The reservoir is modeled by pressure based finite element to reduce the degree of freedoms and there by the computational cost. The responses of dam, reservoir, and foundation with and without fluid-structure, soil-structure and soil-structure-fluid interaction are compared to study the influence of reservoir and soil foundation on the behavior of these respective sub systems. The fundamental frequency of individual sub system decreases with the consideration of coupling effect among these sub systems. On the comparison of the responses of dam, it is observed that the displacement and principal stresses are increased if the effect of reservoir and foundation are considered and the worst responses were observed when both the fluid-structure and soil-structure interaction effects are considered simultaneously. The magnitude and distribution of stresses within the foundation change with the consideration of soil-structure-fluid interaction. Similar to wstresses in the foundation, the hydrodynamic pressure within the reservoir also gets magnified due to interaction effects. The velocity distribution within the reservoir becomes distorted when the fluid-structure and soil-structure-fluid interaction are considered.     

RELIABILITY AND APPLICABILITY OF NAKAMURA'S TECHNIQUE USING MICROTREMORS: AN EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

Nakamura's technique has been widely discussed from the theoretical point of view. Very little information is available as far as the experimental, on-the-field standpoint is concerned. A series of experiments under controlled conditions were set up to assess the reliability and applicability range of this microtremor technique. Since this approach to microzonation is particularly appealing in urban environments, great care was devoted to evaluate the influence of factors such as anthropic noise, concrete or asphalt coverings and soil-structure interaction. Environmental factors (wind) and the influence of sensors were also considered. The results were compared with the seismic response from four earthquakes. The set of experiments shows that under proper measurement conditions Nakamura's technique provides stable and reliable results, but great care has to be devoted to avoid factors that may significantly and adversely affect the results.     

故宫灵沼轩的动力特性及抗震性能研究

故宫灵沼轩是我国最早建造的钢铁-砌体组合结构之一,具有重要的历史、艺术和科学价值。为了评估灵沼轩在地震作用下的结构安全状况,建立了灵沼轩结构的三维有限元模型,并对其进行了动力特性和地震时程分析,得出了其固有频率、模态振型、地震位移响应和地震应力响应。结果表明:灵沼轩整体结构布置对称性较高,扭转刚度较大,对抗震较为有利;在8度多遇地震、设防地震和罕遇地震作用下,灵沼轩的金属结构部分及砌体结构部分的顶点位移和层间位移角均符合现行规范要求,砌体结构部分的第三主应力响应均小于材料的抗压强度,不存在压溃风险。在8度多遇地震和设防地震作用下,砌体结构部分的第一主应力响应均小于材料的抗拉强度,结构不会发生拉裂。但在8度罕遇地震作用下,砌体结构的部分位置拉应力超过材料的抗拉强度,这些位置存在开裂危险。最后,综合动力特性和抗震性能分析的结果,提出了灵沼轩的抗震加固建议。     

Soil mark studies near Winchester,Hampshire

The fate of artifacts incorporated into the ploughsoil as a result of plough damage is considered in terms of two soil mark sites near Winchester, Hampshire. Ploughsoil and subsoil analyses indicate that dispersal of soil material, as a result of ploughing, is limited at the present time and under mould board ploughing techniques. The origin of soil marks underlain only by bedrock is also considered and evidence indicates that such soil marks may appear as groundsurface expressions of ditches which have been removed by plough damage where dispersal of ploughsoil is minimal. Such soil marks may be only short lived if plough depth continues to increase.     

THE EFFECTIVE DURATION OF EARTHQUAKE STRONG MOTION

The duration of strong ground shaking during earthquakes can play an important role in the response of foundation materials and structures, particularly when strength or stiffness degradation is encountered. A thorough seismic hazard assessment should therefore include an estimation of the expected duration of strong motion, which first requires criteria to define the part of an accelerogram considered to represent the duration of strong ground motion. Some 30 different definitions of strong motion duration are reviewed and classified into generic groups. Problems that arise with the use of these definitions for duration are highlighted. A new definition of duration is presented using a previously unexplored option which identifies the part of the record where the main energy is contained and constrains this strong shaking phase by absolute criteria. This new definition is shown to give consistently meaningful durations for strong earthquake accelerograms from an engineering viewpoint. The correlations between the new definition of duration and magnitude, soil conditions and distance are explored as a first step towards the development of predictive equations.     

Generation of Multiple Earthquake Accelerograms Compatible with Spectrum Via the Wavelet Packet Transform and Stochastic Neural Networks

The principal purpose of this article is to present a novel methodology based on wavelet packet transform techniques and stochastic neural networks to generate more artificial earthquake accelerograms from available data, which are compatible with specified response spectra or the design spectra. The proposed method uses the decomposing capabilities of wavelet packet transform on earthquake accelerograms, and the learning abilities of stochastic neural network to expand the knowledge of the inverse mapping from response spectrum to coefficients of wavelet packet transform of earthquake accelerogram. This methodology results in a stochastic ensemble of wavelet packet transform coefficients of earthquake accelerograms and, they are used to the generate accelerograms applying the inverse wavelet packet transform. Finally, an interpretive example is presented which uses an ensemble of recorded accelerograms to train and test the neural network, aiming at the demonstration of the method effectiveness.     

Point-to-Surface Pounding of Highway Bridges with Deck Rotation Subjected to Bi-Directional Earthquake Excitations

Post-earthquake survey of several strong earthquakes demonstrated that pounding between the neighboring civil infrastructures, such as building and highway bridge, would induce significant structural damage, even collapse, of the structures. This article presents a pounding experiment of highway bridge, especially focused on the point-to-surface pounding of bridge decks due to torsional rotation, when subjected to extreme bi-directional earthquake excitations. To experimentally investigate the point-to-surface pounding between the neighboring bridge segments, a base-isolated highway bridge model, in which the mass centers of the bridge decks do not strictly coincide with the corresponding stiffness centers, is manufactured. A series of shaking table tests of the highway bridge model are carried out for the structural model with large and small separations of the expansion joint to investigate the dynamic responses of the bridge model with and without including the pounding effects, respectively. An analytical model of the highway bridge, in which the point-to-surface pounding is represented by using a modified contact-friction element, is also established based on the lump mass model with three degrees of freedom for each segment. Based on the test results, the model parameters of the modified contact-friction element are identified, and the analytical responses of the highway bridge model with pounding effects are compared with the experimental data. The results show that the highway bridge is vulnerable to the deck rotation, and point-to-surface pounding should be considered in the structural design to lighten the pounding damage of the highway bridge under strong earthquake excitations.     

SEISMIC AMPLIFICATION AT A SOFT SOIL SITE WITH LIQUEFIABLE LAYER

It is well known that local soil conditions play a key role in the amplification of earthquake waves. In particular, a liquefiable shallow soil layer may produce a significant influence on ground motion during strong earthquakes. In this paper, the response of a liquefiable site during the 1995 Kobe earthquake is studied using vertical array records, with particular attention on the effects of nonlinear soil behaviour and liquefaction on the ground motion. Variations of the characteristics of the recorded ground motions are analysed using the spectral ratio technique, and the nonlinearity occurring in the shallow liquefied layer during earthquake is identified. A fully coupled, inelastic finite element analysis of the response of the array site is performed. The calculated stress-strain histories of soils and excess pore water pressures at different depths are presented, and their relations to the characteristics of the ground motions are addressed.     

Subsoil Interventions Effect on Structural Seismic Response. Part I: Validation of Numerical Simulations

Subsoil interventions to enhance the static soil resistance and reduce deformations may alter significantly the seismic response of the complex soil-foundation-structure system. The aim of this article is to have an insight in the physics of the problems encountered and to validate an adequate numerical modeling procedure to study these effects of the intervention in the global response of the system. Validation concerns wave propagation, site effects, and dynamic soil-structure-interaction issues including the intervention beneath the foundation. Theoretical models-expressions and experimental results from centrifuge tests have been used. The proposed numerical model is proven very efficient to describe the complex dynamic phenomenon and anticipate the seismic response after the employment of subsoil interventions.     

Electric and magnetic tomographic approach for the geophysical investigation of an unexplored area in the archaeological site of Pompeii (Southern Italy)

The joint application of electric and magnetic techniques for near-surface exploration represents a very useful tool for archaeological investigation and can provide a quantitative contribution to describe the spatial distribution of buried objects. In this work we show a new advanced tomographic approach, based on the parallel inversion of magnetic and electric observed data, aimed at the reconstruction of the subsoil of a still unexplored area of the archaeological site of Pompeii (Southern Italy). The survey was performed in collaboration with Pompeii's Archaeological Commission. The comparison between the results obtained from the tomographic inversions of both electrical and magnetic data was carried out in terms of the data inversions, which allowed us to obtain information about the location of the buried geophysical sources in the investigated subsoil. The results obtained seem to be in a good agreement, both for the position of the geophysical sources and for their dimensions.     

Earthquake Prediction and Warning

Abstract

A destructive earthquake of magnitude 7.3, occurring near Haicheng, Liaoning Province, China on 4 February 1975, was forecast successfully. Many lives were saved by an evacuation warning issued several hours prior to its occurrence. By contrast, another earthquake of magnitude 7.5, hitting the Tangshan area, Hopei Province on 28 July 1976, does not seem to have been predicted. It is believed that many thousands of lives were lost there although no official announcement was ever made about the damage or loss of life. These two Chinese earthquake indicate exactly the present status of prediction. Pre-earthquake indicators are manifold; they are land deformation, seismic activity, seismic wave velocity, changes in geomagnetic and geoelectric fields a well as variations in earth resistivity, gravity, underground water and so forth. Monitoring and analysis of precursory indicators have led us to conclude that there are at least two kinds. The logarithmic time of a long-term precursor is proportional to the magnitude of main shock. It amounts to seven-eight years for a magnitude 7 earthquake and 40–50 days for a magnitude 5 earthquake. Furthermore, indicators having a precursor time of several hours can sometimes be observed. Combining these precur or with periodicity of large shock a apparent from historical record and the accumulation of crustal strain as monitored by repeated geodetic surveys, allows a certain degree of earthquake prediction. These indicators seem to be supplemented by geophysical precursors of another kind and by specific anomalous animal behaviour. Even when a fairly accurate prediction of a damaging earthquake can be achieved, it will be no easy matter to issue a warning to the public because of the anticipated social unrest. Economic loss due to a warning may even exceed the damage caused by the earthquake itself, although many lives will certainly be saved by an accurate prediction.