FRAGILITY OF STANDARD INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES BY A RESPONSE SURFACE BASED METHOD

National and international regulatory standards require industrial risk assessment, taking into account natural hazards including earthquakes, in the framework of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). Seismic fragility analysis of industrial components may be carried out similarly as what has been done for buildings, even though some peculiar aspects require the development of specific tools. In the present paper a contribution to the definition of a rational procedure for seismic vulnerability assessment of standardised industrial constructions in a probabilistic framework is given. The method covers a range of components of the same structural type. Seismic reliability formulation for structures is used. Both seismic capacity and demand are considered probabilistic with the latter assessed by dynamic analyses. The application example refers to shell elephant foot buckling of unanchored sliding tanks. A regression-based method is applied to relate fragility curves to parameters varying in the domain of variables for structural design.     

Seismic Fragility Curves for Un-Anchored On-Grade Steel Storage Tanks: Bayesian Approach

In this article, Bayesian approach is used for estimation of seismic fragility of un-anchored on‐grade steel storage tanks based on historical data and American Lifeline Alliance tanks database. The approach properly accounts for epistemic as well as aleatory uncertainties. The point and interval estimates of the fragility are formulated based on structural reliability method that implicitly or explicitly reflects the influence of epistemic uncertainty. The fragility curves developed herein are compared to corresponding relations currently available in the technical literature, the comparison suggest that actual tank performance is better than that predicted in the literature. Finally, application of fragilities in loss estimation methodology is investigated and showing a considerable scatter in the results corresponding to different fragilities.     

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of the Urban Building Environment in Nablus,Palestine

ABSTRACT

This article describes a specifically developed framework to produce a seismic physical vulnerability model of residential buildings in Nablus (Palestine) within the European project SASPARM2.0. Based on the structural taxonomy of the territory, two different forms were defined to collect geometrical and structural data of buildings by different stakeholders (citizens and practitioners). This data was then employed to produce fragility curves using the mechanics-based procedure SP-BELA. To estimate seismic risk, the developed fragility model was combined with a hazard curve for the corresponding location. The described procedure is implemented in a WebGIS platform that allows to georeference and assess the surveyed buildings and define retrofitting strategies. Finally, the article carries out a comparison between the fragility curves of buildings in Nablus and the ones calculated for similar building typologies within a UNDP Jordan project aiming at the integrated risk assessment in Wadi Musa and surroundings.     

A Simplified Drift-Based Assessment Procedure for Regular Confined Masonry Buildings in Seismic Regions

This article presents a simplified procedure for assessing the seismic performance of existing low-to-medium rise confined masonry (CM) buildings, which are a typical construction type in Latin-America. The procedure consists of the estimation of the peak roof and first-story inelastic drift demand of CM buildings. The expected peak inelastic displacement demand is related to drift-based fragility curves, which express the probability of being or exceeding two key damage states in the masonry panels, developed from a relatively large experimental database. The proposed procedure could be very useful for obtaining rapid estimates of expected performance during future earthquake events and for assessing the seismic vulnerability of regular confined masonry structures.     

Regional Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Network in Charleston,South Carolina

This article presents the results of a seismic risk assessment of the bridge network in Charleston, South Carolina and the surrounding counties to support emergency planning efforts, and for prioritization of bridge retrofit. This study includes an inventory analysis of the approximately 375 bridges in the Charleston area, and convolution of the seismic hazard with fragility curves analytically derived for classes of bridges common to this part of the country. State-of-the-art bridge fragility curves and replacement cost estimates based on region-specific data are used to obtain economic loss estimates. The distribution of potential bridge damage and economic losses are evaluated for several scenario events in order to aid in the identification of emergency routes and assess areas for investment in retrofit. This article also evaluates the effect of uncertainty on the resulting predicted economic losses. The findings reveal that while the risk assessment is very sensitive to both the assumed fragility curves and damage ratios, the estimate of total expected economic losses is more sensitive to the vast differences in damage ratio models considered.     

SEISMIC FRAGILITY OF LRC FRAMES WITH AND WITHOUT MASONRY INFILL WALLS

This paper summarises the first phase of the fragility analyses of generic (representative) buildings in the area of Memphis, Tennessee, USA. The study was conducted at Cornell University as a part of the project Loss Assessment of Memphis Buildings (LAMB) for the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER). In this study, the fragility analyses focus on low-rise Lightly Reinforced Concrete (LRC) frame buildings with and without infill walls. The obtained fragility curves are compared with those of ATC-13 for different facility classes. Based on the obtained fragility curves, it is concluded that adding masonry infill wails to low-rise LRC frame buildings significantly reduces the likelihood of seismic damage.     

Parameterized Seismic Fragility Curves for Curved Multi-frame Concrete Box-Girder Bridges Using Bayesian Parameter Estimation

This paper addresses the application of a Bayesian parameter estimation method to a regional seismic risk assessment of curved concrete bridges. For this purpose, numerical models of case-study bridges are simulated to generate multiparameter demand models of components, consisting of various uncertainty parameters and an intensity measure (IM). The demand models are constructed using a Bayesian parameter estimation method and combined with limit states to derive the parameterized fragility curves. These fragility curves are used to develop bridge-specific and bridge-class fragility curves. Moreover, a stepwise removal process in the Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to identify significant parameters affecting component demands.     

Analytical Fragility Curves for a Class of Horizontally Curved Box-Girder Bridges

Analytical fragility curves were developed for curved single-frame concrete box-girder bridges with seat-type abutments. The bridges incorporated the current seismic design considerations and modern details that were recently adopted by CALTRANS. Fragility curves demonstrated that columns were the most vulnerable components, while the modern seismic details successfully protected the abutment piles from damage during large earthquakes. Increasing the subtended angle affected the seismic vulnerability at both the component and system levels. Functional relationships were proposed to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of curved bridges. Moreover, fragility curve parameters were shown to depend on soil condition and spectral characteristics of ground motions.     

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of Lightly Reinforced Concrete Beam-Column Joints

Fragility functions play an essential role in evaluating the seismic vulnerability of structures. To establish the seismic fragility functions of lightly Reinforced Concrete (RC) beam-column joints, the Park-Ang Damage model has been amended to quantify the damage states and the modified Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori model has been employed and implemented in ABAQUS to predict the structural hysteresis behavior. Following successful calibration of the numerical results of a RC test frame from literature, the proposed model has been utilized to assess the seismic fragility curves of low to mid-rise RC frames in Singapore for 30 scaled ground motions using incremental dynamic analysis approach.     

Seismic Fragility Assessment of Lightly Reinforced Concrete Structural Walls

Development of fragility functions is a pertinent stage in seismic performance assessment of structures. A database of lightly Reinforced Concrete (RC) walls under simulated seismic loading is compiled from the literature to establish the drift-based seismic fragility functions. To classify the damage states experienced by RC walls, the Park-Ang Damage model is amended in this research. Then, the modified Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori hysteresis model is implemented in ABAQUS to predict the hysteresis behavior of RC walls. Thereafter, the proposed hysteresis model is employed to develop the seismic fragility curves of low to mid-rise RC walls in Singapore using incremental dynamic analysis approach.     

The Impact of Flood-Induced Scour on Seismic Fragility Characteristics of Bridges

Earthquake in the presence of flood-induced scour is a critical multihazard scenario for bridges located in seismically-active, flood-prone regions. The present article evaluates seismic performance of four example reinforced concrete bridges when they are pre-exposed to regional flood hazards. Nonlinear time history analyses of the example bridges are performed for a suite of ground motion time histories in the presence and absence of scour expected from different intensity flood events. Fragility analysis is performed to develop seismic fragility curves of the example bridges for various scour depths. Results show nonlinear increase in bridge seismic fragility with increase in scour depth.     

Comparing expeditious procedures for the seismic vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context: reliability,feasibility, cost,and time consumption

ABSTRACT

The definition of strategies for the preservation and protection of cultural heritage is a topical issue, especially in view of the increasing relevance of the theme of seismic risk mitigation and reduction.

The prediction of the impact an earthquake could have on existing buildings requires the knowledge of their dynamic behaviour. The procedure to be adopted for this purpose is quite complex and onerous in terms of costs, time, and implementation, especially when the study concerns territorial areas rather than single buildings. The definition of methodologies aimed at respecting the principles of economic sustainability and preserving human life and architectural heritage is of paramount importance to assess seismic vulnerability using available resources. Rapid methods for the seismic vulnerability assessment, aimed at defining buildings vulnerability and intervention priority lists, must be implemented to guarantee the preservation of historical centers.

This article describes the application to some case studies of different methods aimed at creating fragility curves for the vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context. The comparison between a deterministic approach and a new probabilistic one is performed for all case studies, to define the most suitable methodology in terms of reliability and savings in cost and time.     

Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of RC Bridges Based on Kriging Model

This paper presents a Kriging model-based method for seismic vulnerability analysis of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges. It aims at reducing the computational effect when the Monte Carlo technique is used for establishing the structural vulnerability curves. The general procedure of the proposed method is put forward firstly. In the procedure, the uncertainties existing in the structures and ground motions are both taken into account, and the uniform design (UD) technique is adopted for generating the random samples. The reliability of the proposed method is demonstrated by the vulnerability analysis of an single degree of freedom (SDOF) system using the Latin hypercube simulation (LHS) method. Vulnerability analysis of an RC bridge system is then carried out using the proposed method. The vulnerability curves of the bridge obtained by the Kriging model-based method are compared with those obtained by the LHS method. Additionally, three simulation schemes adopting different UD tables are employed to investigate the convergence and stability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method used for the seismic vulnerability analysis of RC bridges can reduce the computational effort and time to a large extent without much compromise on the accuracy.     

Numerical Fragility Analysis of Vertical-Pile-Supported Wharves in the Western United States

This study develops seismic fragility curves for vertical-pile-supported wharves commonly found in the western United States. Nonlinear time-history analyses of a two-dimensional numerical model under two ground motion suites are performed. The results show that the jumbo container cranes increase by 10.8% in the wharf deck drift. By using the experiment-based limit states, the proposed fragility curves demonstrate that, at a PGA of 0.50 g, the probabilities of exceeding slight, moderate, extensive, and complete limit states are approximately 23.0%, 7.0%, 4.0%, and 3.0%, respectively, while at a PGA of 1.00 g, the exceeding probabilities increase to 44.0%, 19.0%, 14.0%, and 11.0%, respectively.     

Fragility Curves for RC Frames Subjected to Tohoku Mainshock-Aftershocks Sequences

The damaging effects of aftershocks are overlooked by current building codes and not properly accounted for in commercial seismic loss assessment software. In this paper, an evaluation of the seismic fragility relationships for reinforced concrete (RC) frame systems prone to mainshock-aftershocks sequences is conducted. Fiber-based finite element models for different types of RC frames are established and subjected to a suite of ground motions obtained from the Tohoku sequence. Fragility relationships are derived with and without consideration to multiple earthquake effects. The results from this study confirm that multiple earthquakes have significant effects on the vulnerability relationships of RC frames.     

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Hybrid Steel-Timber Structure: Steel Moment-Resisting Frames with CLT Infill

In this article, seismic vulnerability assessment is carried-out on a novel hybrid structure (steel moment resisting frame (SMRF) and cross laminated timber (CLT) infill panels). For the seismicity of Vancouver, Canada, a three-bay, 3-, 6-, and 9-story height SMRFs are designed for two ductility levels (ductile and limited ductility). To study the seismic vulnerability CLT infilled building, parametric analysis was performed by varying infill configuration (bare frame, one-bay infilled, two-bay infilled, and fully infilled). The structure is modeled in OpenSees and nonlinear dynamic analysis is performed. Peak inter-story drift demand and corresponding FEMA performance limits (capacity) values are used to compute the corresponding fragility curves. From the analyses, it can be seen that as more bays are infilled, the fundamental period and seismic vulnerability is reduced significantly. The results highlight that, within the performance-based earthquake engineering, different objectives can be met with varying the CLT configuration.     

Development of Probabilistic Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Assessment of Structures Considering Residual Deformations

Recently, the importance of considering residual (permanent) deformations in the performance assessment of structures has been recognized. Advanced structural systems with re-centering properties as those based on unbonded post-tensioning tendons are capable of controlling or completely eliminating residual deformations. However, for more traditional systems, which count for the vast majority of buildings, residual deformations are currently considered an unavoidable result of structural inelastic response under severe seismic shaking.

In this article, a probabilistic framework for a performance-based seismic assessment of structures considering residual deformations is proposed. The development of a probabilistic formulation of a combined three-dimensional performance matrix, where maximum and residual deformations are combined to define the performance level corresponding to various damage states for a given seismic intensity levels, is first presented. Combined fragility curves expressing the probability of exceedence of performance levels defined by pairs of maximum-residual deformations are then derived using bivariate probability distributions. The significance of evaluating and accounting for residual deformations within a Performance-based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) approach is further confirmed via numerical examples on the response of Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) systems, with different hysteretic behavior, under a selected suite of earthquake records. Joined fragility curves corresponding to various performance levels, defined as a combination of maximum and residual response parameters, are derived while investigating the effects of hysteretic systems and strength ratios. It is observed that stiffness degrading Takeda systems result in lower residual deformations than elasto-plastic systems and show lower probability of exceeding a jointed maximum-residual performance level. For a chosen performance level, Takeda systems with higher strength ratios show better performance, particularly with lower intensity of excitations.     

Development of Damage Patterns and Fragility Curves in Brick-nogging Buildings from the Thabeikkyin Earthquake,Myanmar, 2012

The Thabeikkyin earthquake (moment magnitude scale of 6.8) occurred on November 11, 2012; its epicenter was located 25 km from Thabeikkyin Township, Mandalay Region, Myanmar. Many buildings were damaged severely during the earthquake. In this study, damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings were firstly developed, and damage grades were characterized to allow for easy classification of the damaged buildings. The damaged data of all building types in the surveyed areas were collected by classifying the four damage levels as no damage, slight damage, moderate damage, and heavy damage. To develop the damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings, damage categories were arranged into three damage grades (slight, moderate, and heavy damage). Secondly, a questionnaire survey was conducted to calculate the seismic intensities of the affected areas. Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) seismic intensities for the surveyed areas were estimated by analyzing the questionnaire survey responses. Finally, fragility curves for brick-nogging buildings were constructed using the estimated seismic intensities from the survey responses combined with the damage levels. These fragility curves may be useful to assess damage to brick-nogging buildings and to predict the number of damaged buildings in future earthquakes.     

Comparison between the Seismic Performance of Integral and Jointed Concrete Bridges

This article presents a probabilistic fragility analysis for two groups of integral and jointed concrete bridges, with varying length and column height. The results show that the integral bridges perform consistently better from a seismic perspective than the jointed bridges. Comparisons are also drawn between the seismic fragility of different geometric configurations. The results show that for integral bridges, the seismic vulnerability increases with an increase in bridge length and decreases with an increase in column height. For the jointed bridge, it was found that geometric variation in column height and bridge length does not significantly affect its seismic vulnerability.     

Seismic Fragility Study of Displacement Demand on Fire Sprinkler Piping Systems

Seismic damage to fire sprinkler piping systems is not only caused by inertial forces or interstory drifts, but also by impact with surrounding objects. The collision of constituents of piping systems with nearby objects increases the chance of damage to the piping itself and to adjacent objects. In this study, the probability of seismic damage to fire sprinkler systems due to impact is quantified by obtaining seismic fragility parameters for large diameter pipes passing through walls and floors, as well as small diameter pipes that typically interact with suspended ceilings. The results of two shaking table experiments conducted at the University of Nevada, Reno and E-Defense test facility, and a high-fidelity numerical model of a hospital piping system are used to evaluate the displacement demands. Piping interaction fragility curves are generated based on clearances between adjacent objects and pipes. The probability of piping interactions and damage to piping systems subjected to different levels of peak floor acceleration is compared for different clearances. It is found that the probability of damage due to impact is comparable with the probability of exceeding other limit states, like the leakage in fittings, when a 1 in or 2 in gap is provided around large and small diameter pipes, respectively.