PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf,Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.

Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.     

THE 9 JULY 551 AD BEIRUT EARTHQUAKE,EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN REGION

Analysis of the Byzantine primary and secondary sources for identifying the historical earthquakes in Syria and Lebanon reveals that a large earthquake (M _s =7.2) occurred in July 9, 551 AD along the Lebanese littoral and was felt over a very large area in the eastern Mediterranean region. It was a shallow-focus earthquake, associated with a regional tsunami along the Lebanese coast, a local landslide near Al-Batron town, and a large fire in Beirut. It caused heavy destruction with great loss of lives to several Lebanese cities, mainly Beirut, with a maximum intensity between IX-X (EMS-92). The proposed epicentre of the event is offshore of Beirut at about 34.00°N, 35.50° E, indicating that the earthquake appears to be the result of movement along the strike-slip left-lateral Roum fault in southern Lebanon.     

SEISMIC HAZARD IN GREECE BASED ON DIFFERENT STRONG GROUND MOTION PARAMETERS

The available Greek strong ground motion records to date are used in order to study the duration of strong-motion in Greece, covering magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.9 and distances from 1 km to 128 km. An attenuation relation of strong-motion duration is calculated and compared to earlier existing similar relations proposed for Greece and Japan. Furthermore, the seismic hazard for the area of Greece is assessed, using the strong-motion parameters of duration and peak ground acceleration. The results are presented in the form of a map according to which Greece is classified in four different categories of equal seismic hazard.     

PLATO'S ATLANTIS ACCOUNT - A DISTORTED RECOLLECTION of the TROJAN WAR

Summary: Parts of the lower town of Mycenaean Tiryns, Greece, became devastated and buried 3-5 meters deep during a torrential flood which coincided with a major earthquake at the transition from Late Helladic IIIB2 to Late Helladic IIIC1 (c. 1200 BC). These catastrophes contributed locally to the rapid demise of the Mycenaean civilization which commenced at this chronological boundary. Such a collapse of an early Greek civilization accompanied by a simultaneous earthquake and flood is described by Plato (Timaeus 25D) in the legendary Atlantis account. Plato's report revolves around a war between an ancient Greek civilization and a mighty force abroad, called Atlantis. If the former coincides with Mycenaean Greece, the most obvious candidate for the latter must be Troy. Hence, the thus far inexplicable story of Atlantis might well represent an Egyptian recollection of Troy and the Trojan War, distorted by transmission and translation.     

Transient and Long-Term Changes in Seismic Response of the Natural Resources Building,Olympia, Washington,due to Earthquake Shaking

The Natural Resources Building (NRB) in Olympia, Washington, was shaken by three earthquakes (Mw = 5.8, 6.8, and 5.0) between 1999 and 2001. Building motions were recorded on digital accelerographs, providing important digital recordings of repeated strong shaking in a building. The NRB has 5-stories above grade with 3 sub-grade levels and a ductile steel-frame elongated in the E-W direction. The upper two floors extend significantly beyond the lower 3 on the southern and eastern sides. N-S motions dominate the fundamental modal vibrations of the building system. In the 1999 Satsop M5.8 earthquake, the frequency of this fundamental system mode was 1.3 Hz during motions of 10% g. The frequency dropped to 0.7 Hz during the 2001 M6.8 Nisqually strong motions. Moreover, the Nisqually recordings reveal both numerous high-frequency transients of up to 0.18 g, several of which are visible on widely spaced sensors, and long-term tilts of some of the sensors. The weaker 2001 M5.0 Satsop earthquake motions showed the frequency remained depressed at less than 1 Hz for the eastern side of the structure, although the western side had recovered to 1.3 Hz. An ambient noise survey in 2008 showed the fundamental frequency of N/S vibrations remains about 1.0 Hz for the eastern side of the building and 1.3 Hz for the western side. These results suggest that in the Nisqually earthquake, the east side of the NRB suffered a permanent reduction in fundamental mode frequency of 37% due to loss of system stiffness by undetermined mechanism.     

Earthquake‐related temperature changes in two neighboring hot springs at Xiangcheng,China

Pre‐earthquake and postearthquake temperature changes were documented in two hot springs at Xiangcheng. Pre‐earthquake changes were documented in spring I, 13 days before and 106 km away from the M_s 5.8 Zhongdian earthquake. The 11‐year cutoff spring spouted again, and the spouted water was 24°C hotter than the former escaping gas. Postearthquake changes were documented in spring II following the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, approximately 425 km away from the epicenter. Temperature in spring II showed a step‐like increase with a magnitude of 4°C induced by the earthquake. Spring I which is 0.3 m apart from spring II did not show a sudden change following the earthquake. However, temperatures in the two springs were identical after the Wenchuan earthquake. It indicates that the earthquake generated new hydraulic connectivity between springs I and II, and the heat transport between the two springs accounts for the postearthquake temperature changes.     

SITE EFFECTS BY H/V RATIO: COMPARISON OF TWO DIFFERENT PROCEDURES

In this article, H/V ratio are evaluated using different spectral techiniques applied to both earthquake and microtremor data (Nakamura technique). In particular, in order to avoid numerical instability, two different numerical techiniques are taken into account: (a) a smoothing procedure applied to the spectra of the seismogram components and (b) a regularization method applied to the H/V ratio (Landweber scheme). The data set consists of more than 70 earthquake events recorded by three component sensors displaced in the town of Fabriano (Central Italy) during the Umbria-Marche sequence started on September 1997. The local magnitudes range between 2.7 and 4.4, while the epicentral distances range between nearly 30 and 60 km. The stations were set to continuous recording so that a huge amount of microtremors was stored. The results are compared in terms of predominant frequencies and amplification levels in order to point out the influence of the adopted methods. The H/V ratio provides similar results if applied to a smoothed version of both earthquake and microtremor spectra, confirming that Nakamura technique is a cheap and a fast method to collect information on the site amplification effects. Moreover, the results relevant to earthquake data seem not to depend on the method used to stabilize the H/V ratio, whereas those relevant to microtremor data does. The explanation of this fact is suggested by the behaviour of the Landweber filter showing that the predominant frequency detected by means of microtremor data lies in a high instability region of the spectra.     

Placing Managua: a landscape narrative in post-earthquake Nicaragua

On 23 December 1972, a major earthquake occurred near Managua, Nicaragua. Followed by two strong aftershocks, the earthquake had devastating consequences for the people of Nicaragua's capital, and corruption and mismanagement during the relief efforts gave impetus to what would become the Nicaraguan Revolution of 1979. The earthquake also dramatically altered the landscape of the capital, destroying most of the city's historic center. Abandoned after the earthquake, the area nevertheless maintains a prominent symbolic role in Nicaragua, and in many ways remains the heart of a vastly changed modern city. The revolution was celebrated in the historic core, and memorials, government buildings, and ongoing revitalization efforts have all shaped it in the nearly four decades since its devastation. Though initially abandoned, it remains a powerful and dynamic place. This article investigates landscape transitions in the historic heart of Managua since the tumultuous events of the 1970s, with particular emphasis on the ways in which visions of Nicaragua's past, present, and future are reflected in the competing currents of the built landscape.     

THE BOVEC (SLOVENIA) EARTHQUAKE,APRIL 1998: PRELIMINARY QUANTITATIVE ASSOCIATION AMONG DAMAGE,GROUND MOTION AMPLIFICATION AND BUILDING FREQUENCIES

After the 5.6 earthquake that struck Slovenia on Easter day in 1998, a quick survey was organised to perform a series of field measurements aimed at estimating site amplification. The possibility of recording aftershocks in the immediate aftermath of the main event improves the reliability of Nakamura's technique. The most affected sites that were sampled are located in the areas of Bovec and Dreznica. The damage pattern shows strong variations on short scale range. The typology of the buildings is very similar over the entire area being surveyed, and it is therefore likely that most of the variation could be attributed to site amplification effects. Local geology appears to be the dominant factor in most of the damage observed, and it can be qualitatively linked to empirical amplification functions obtained with Nakamura's technique. The damage enhancement between neighbouring sites is well correlated with amplification in a frequency range relevant to building vibration.     

Seismic Damage to Structures in the 2015 Nepal Earthquake Sequences

The 7.8 Mw Gorkha earthquake struck the east of Lamjung in Nepal, followed by a sequence of powerful aftershocks. Chinese Team Six including the authors inspected the seismic damage to civil structures along 10 paths in densely populated areas with a seismic intensity of VII to IX, 40 days after the main shock. The damage was categorized according to structure types and described in detail. Several conclusions are made: powerful aftershocks can significantly affect the failure patterns; geological conditions, structure types, and height have great influence on the level of damage; and the local risky retrofitting technique needs improvement badly.     

GENERATION OF SYNTHETIC EARTHQUAKE ACCELEROGRAMS USING SEISMOLOGICAL MODELLING: A REVIEW

A stochastically based seismological model is described in this paper and used to generate synthetic accelerograms that are considered representative of intraplate earthquake events recorded on rock. The model, whilst well publicised in the seismological literature, is discussed and reviewed in this paper from an engineering perspective. The key factors influencing the frequency properties of the Fourier spectrum of the earthquake ground motion are presented and the differences observed between regions such as between eastern and western USA axe discussed. A procedure to generate representative artificial accelerograms from the Fourier spectrum is described. Average response spectra derived from these synthetic accelerograms are then compared with a selection of response spectra derived from recorded accelerograms to test and substantiate the model. The application of the seismological modelling approach to regions outside North America and the implications of the Displacement Based prinicples on the future development of seismological modelling have been addressed and discussed in the paper.     

Critical Issues in Earthquake Scenario Loss Modeling

The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.     

Multiple Glaciation of the Upper Franklin Valley,Western Tasmania Wilderness World Heritage Area

Part of an extensive ice cap that developed in the Tasmanian Central Highlands during the late Cainozoic discharged southwards into the valley of the Franklin River and its upper tributaries where it merged with smaller glaciers that accumulated behind local snowfences. Glacial landforms and sediments in the now heavily forested valleys indicate that at least three and possibly as many as six glaciations took place. The earliest and most extensive glaciation occurred during the Pliocene or earliest Pleistocene. At this time ice extended at least 27km down the Franklin Valley and covered at least 326km² of the study area. This ice was confluent with glaciers in the West Coast Range to the west and in the Derwent Valley to the east Such confluence offers the possibility of better correlation of glacial events between western Tasmania and the Central Highlands. The smallest and most recent glaciation occurred during the late Last Glacial Stage when the Franklin Glacier did not exceed 12km in length. The glaciers were characterised by high rates of mass throughput and were of temperate maritime type.     

Front and Back Covers,Volume 27, Number 5. October 2011

Front and back cover caption, volume 27 issue 5 Front cover TERRORISM IN NORWAY At the Blue Stone Monument in the centre of Bergen, Norway's second city, a young couple mourns the 77 Norwegians killed by a right‐wing extremist in Oslo and Utøya on 22 July 2011. A cut‐and‐paste manifesto published on the internet and sent to his contacts all over Europe revealed that mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik targeted government buildings in Oslo and the Labour Party youth camp at Utøya in an attempt to instigate a civil war in Europe, aimed at effacing the presence of Muslims in Norway and Europe. As Thomas Hylland Eriksen argues in his editorial in this issue, Norwegian social democrats were a target of Breivik's violent ire because he believed them to have paved the way for a Muslim ‘conquest’ of Europe. Also in this issue, Sindre Bangstad's account of media representations of Muslims in Norway points to a widespread sense among mainstream Norwegian media of a radical incompatibility between so‐called ‘Norwegian values’ and ‘Islamic values’, especially in the field of women's and gay rights. As Norwegians struggle with the aftermath of the terrible events of 22 July, these profoundly problematic exclusionary religious and ethnic categories may face a challenge from the other Norway, a place of compassion and solidarity in suffering. Back cover THE GREEK CRISIS Right, a poster satirically depicts Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou as the IMF's favourite employee. Under increasing pressure from international institutions – especially the IMF and the European Union (of which it is a member) – Greece has been experiencing an upsurge in street clashes between protesters and police, as well as acts of petty crime. At least since 2008, already rampant stereotypes about the Greeks have greedily fed on the images of unbridled violence. Greece was once so crime‐free that the national newspapers reported acts of pickpocketing in Athens; today, such a scenario seems the very stuff of nostalgic dreams. But does the current situation really mean, as the media repeatedly suggest, that Greece has become a violent country? In this issue, Michael Herzfeld – who was first tear gassed and then mugged in Athens in July – argues that such claims are a gross misrepresentation and indeed are part of the problem. Greece – which certainly has acted with financial insouciance in the past – has now become the punchbag for the more generic frustrations of its European partners and of international finance. In the resulting vicious circle, its financial woes threaten to drag the whole European Union into final collapse. Meanwhile, severe austerity measures and rising unemployment have provoked simmering unrest, while competition for jobs feeds anti‐immigrant resentment (especially as Greece has agreed not restrict the onward travel of undocumented migrants, thereby increasing their numbers). In the resultant stereotyping, Greece is treated as a naughty child. Its young people, many of them well‐educated and painfully aware of the corruption that has hitherto protected a privileged few, face a precarious employment environment. Under that pressure, Herzfeld argues, traditional forms of violence and ideas about reciprocal moral obligation now shape the debates that are agitating the country and the world. Anthropologists, he suggests, can help correct the often misleading media representations of what is happening and why.     

Fragility Curves for RC Frames Subjected to Tohoku Mainshock-Aftershocks Sequences

The damaging effects of aftershocks are overlooked by current building codes and not properly accounted for in commercial seismic loss assessment software. In this paper, an evaluation of the seismic fragility relationships for reinforced concrete (RC) frame systems prone to mainshock-aftershocks sequences is conducted. Fiber-based finite element models for different types of RC frames are established and subjected to a suite of ground motions obtained from the Tohoku sequence. Fragility relationships are derived with and without consideration to multiple earthquake effects. The results from this study confirm that multiple earthquakes have significant effects on the vulnerability relationships of RC frames.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area that has been studied lies between 50°E-60°E and 20°N-30°N and spans several Gulf countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown. A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention. The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.     

Geodynamic processes in the NW Bohemian swarm earthquake region,Czech Republic,identified by continuous gas monitoring

The time series of two continuously operating gas monitoring stations at Oldřišská and Nový Kostel located along seismoactive faults in the epicentral area of the NW Bohemian swarm earthquakes (Czech Republic) are compared with water level fluctuations in two boreholes positioned along these faults and with gas flux variations of a mofette at the Soos mofette field at 9 km distance. The seasonal trend of the monitored CO₂ concentration with a maximum in November and a minimum in March/April is governed by groundwater temperatures, superimposed in spring by soil temperatures. CO₂ concentration variations identified at Oldřišská are also reflected in gas flux variations in the Soos mofette and/or water level fluctuations of two boreholes. Variations in the gas monitoring recordings of station at Nový Kostel are also linked with variations at Oldřišská. In all data sets, diurnal variations generated by earth tides occur, reflecting a daily stress – fault permeability cycle. Additional stress interferes with this cycle. Significant, abrupt changes are attributed to geodynamic processes linked with seismic events, as revealed by local seismicity or by the transient of waves of a strong remote earthquake. Simultaneous variations of the gas concentrations in the Nový Kostel area and in the gas flux in the Soos point to an interconnected hydraulic conductive fault systems present in the northern part of the Cheb Basin. Sharp falls in gas concentration, during or subsequent to, earthquake swarms may reflect fault compression associated with impeded gas migration. However, gas variations also occur in periods without seismic activity, indicating changes in fault permeability were caused by local aseismic fault movements, as revealed by events with opposite trends in the gas recordings at Oldřišská, Nový Kostel and the Soos. Therefore, a mathematical approach to establish a correlation between seismicity and gas geochemical variations is not possible.     

The last glaciation in the Western Mourne Mountains,Northern Ireland

During the late‐Midlandian (25–13 ¹⁴C ka BP), the last Irish Ice Sheet was thicker in the Western Mourne Mountains than previously argued. Geomorphological and sedimento‐logical analysis shows that regional ice from the Irish Ice Sheet spilled over the mountains, reaching a major limit 5 km along Pigeon Rock Valley. These findings differ from the previous view that a local valley glacier occupied the valley during this period. The pattern of deglaciation was reconstructed using glacial and periglacial evidence. A complex topographic environment in the upper reaches of the valley suggests that regional ice stagnated as it wasted away. During the Nahanagan Stadial (Younger Dryas, ca. 11–10 ka ¹⁴C BP) an arcuate ridge was formed on the western flank of the valley. Calculations suggest that the Equilibrium Line Altitude, influenced by topographic conditions favourable for snow accumulation, was approximately between 1736 m and 1386 m lower during the Nahanagan Stadial than at present.     

Archeoseismicity and environmental crises at the Sialk Mounds,Central Iranian Plateau,since the Early Neolithic

During the long-lasting cultural sequences of the Shurābeh and Sialk archeological mounds (6200–550 BC) the inhabitants encountered numerous diversified crises along a narrow fertile passageway at the edge of the Central Iranian Plateau Great Desert. Some of the threats may be attributed to earthquakes, drastic climatic changes, and man-made environmental deterioration, which possibly led to the settlement withdrawing at different stages toward a more suitable location. Our study identified the occurrence of a large-magnitude earthquake around 3800 BC along the Kāshān fault, which is well-documented by various lines of circumstantial evidence, including: (i) numerous contemporaneous smashed skeletons and artifacts underneath collapsed walls and ceiling debris in several different areas; (ii) tilted and collapsed walls; (iii) nearly N–S oriented fallen large storage jars; and (iv) nearly vertical deep ground fractures cutting walls and floors of the Sialk III₅ South Mound settlement. Archeological data also shows additional stratigraphic discontinuities and damages that may be attributed to earthquakes. However, damage features in limited exposed trenches are less conclusive and require additional careful excavations. Apparent ancient paleo-architectural innovative attempts to enhance the coherency/elasticity of the structures and minimize earthquake damage to buildings were also noted, suggesting the indigenous earthquake hazard mitigation endeavor. There seems to be a correlation between some site abandonment dates and possible drastic regional draught/cooling events. The natural and anthropogenic impacts addressed in this study constituted major threats to the sensitive archeological settlements at the fringe of the desert and the vicinity of the Kāshān active fault since antiquity.