Development of Probabilistic Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Assessment of Structures Considering Residual Deformations

Recently, the importance of considering residual (permanent) deformations in the performance assessment of structures has been recognized. Advanced structural systems with re-centering properties as those based on unbonded post-tensioning tendons are capable of controlling or completely eliminating residual deformations. However, for more traditional systems, which count for the vast majority of buildings, residual deformations are currently considered an unavoidable result of structural inelastic response under severe seismic shaking.

In this article, a probabilistic framework for a performance-based seismic assessment of structures considering residual deformations is proposed. The development of a probabilistic formulation of a combined three-dimensional performance matrix, where maximum and residual deformations are combined to define the performance level corresponding to various damage states for a given seismic intensity levels, is first presented. Combined fragility curves expressing the probability of exceedence of performance levels defined by pairs of maximum-residual deformations are then derived using bivariate probability distributions. The significance of evaluating and accounting for residual deformations within a Performance-based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) approach is further confirmed via numerical examples on the response of Single Degree of Freedom (SDOF) systems, with different hysteretic behavior, under a selected suite of earthquake records. Joined fragility curves corresponding to various performance levels, defined as a combination of maximum and residual response parameters, are derived while investigating the effects of hysteretic systems and strength ratios. It is observed that stiffness degrading Takeda systems result in lower residual deformations than elasto-plastic systems and show lower probability of exceeding a jointed maximum-residual performance level. For a chosen performance level, Takeda systems with higher strength ratios show better performance, particularly with lower intensity of excitations.     

Sustainability of Highway Bridge Networks Under Seismic Hazard

In order to evaluate the seismic risk of transportation networks, it is necessary to develop a methodology that integrates the probabilities of occurrence of seismic events in a region, the vulnerability of the civil infrastructure, and the consequences of the seismic hazard to the society, environment, and economy. In this article, a framework for the time-variant seismic sustainability and risk assessment of highway bridge networks is presented. The sustainability of the network is quantified in terms of its social, environmental, and economic metrics. These include the expected downtime, expected energy waste and carbon dioxide emissions, and the expected loss. The methodology considers the probability of occurrence of a set of seismic scenarios that reflect the seismic activity of the region. The performance of network links is quantified based on individual bridge performance evaluated through fragility analyses. The sustainability and risk depend on the damage states of both the links and the bridges within the network following an earthquake scenario. The time-variation of the sustainability metrics and risk due to structural deterioration is identified. The approach is illustrated on a transportation network located in Alameda County, California.     

Analytical Fragility Curves for a Class of Horizontally Curved Box-Girder Bridges

Analytical fragility curves were developed for curved single-frame concrete box-girder bridges with seat-type abutments. The bridges incorporated the current seismic design considerations and modern details that were recently adopted by CALTRANS. Fragility curves demonstrated that columns were the most vulnerable components, while the modern seismic details successfully protected the abutment piles from damage during large earthquakes. Increasing the subtended angle affected the seismic vulnerability at both the component and system levels. Functional relationships were proposed to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of curved bridges. Moreover, fragility curve parameters were shown to depend on soil condition and spectral characteristics of ground motions.     

Seismic Reconnaissance and Observed Damage after the Mw 6.8, 24 August 2016 Chauk (Central Myanmar) Earthquake

On 24 August 2016, Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred near Chauk, Central Myanmar. This earthquake caused a significant amount of damage over a very large number of historical monuments. After providing a general summary of the regional tectonic settings and seismicity, the observed ground motion has been discussed, and performance of structures in the epicentral area is addressed, focusing on the damage observed in both historical and recent constructions. The observed damage patterns and their extent are analyzed and interpreted in light of observed damage that was found. Lastly, seismic fragility curves of local buildings have been derived.     

Seismic Fragility Assessment of Lightly Reinforced Concrete Structural Walls

Development of fragility functions is a pertinent stage in seismic performance assessment of structures. A database of lightly Reinforced Concrete (RC) walls under simulated seismic loading is compiled from the literature to establish the drift-based seismic fragility functions. To classify the damage states experienced by RC walls, the Park-Ang Damage model is amended in this research. Then, the modified Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori hysteresis model is implemented in ABAQUS to predict the hysteresis behavior of RC walls. Thereafter, the proposed hysteresis model is employed to develop the seismic fragility curves of low to mid-rise RC walls in Singapore using incremental dynamic analysis approach.     

Physics-based Simulation and High-fidelity Visualization of Fire Following Earthquake Considering Building Seismic Damage

This work proposes a framework for the physics-based simulation and high-fidelity visualization of fire following earthquake (FFE) considering building seismic damage. The seismic damage of regional buildings is simulated using multiple degree-of-freedom building models in conjunction with nonlinear time-history analysis. In parallel, a high-fidelity visualization is presented to simulate fire spread and smoke effects. A case study of downtown Taiyuan with 44,152 buildings is performed. The results show that the influence of different ground motions and building seismic resistances on fire ignition and fire spread can be taken into account and that the FFE scene can be displayed realistically.     

Regional Seismic Risk Assessment of Bridge Network in Charleston,South Carolina

This article presents the results of a seismic risk assessment of the bridge network in Charleston, South Carolina and the surrounding counties to support emergency planning efforts, and for prioritization of bridge retrofit. This study includes an inventory analysis of the approximately 375 bridges in the Charleston area, and convolution of the seismic hazard with fragility curves analytically derived for classes of bridges common to this part of the country. State-of-the-art bridge fragility curves and replacement cost estimates based on region-specific data are used to obtain economic loss estimates. The distribution of potential bridge damage and economic losses are evaluated for several scenario events in order to aid in the identification of emergency routes and assess areas for investment in retrofit. This article also evaluates the effect of uncertainty on the resulting predicted economic losses. The findings reveal that while the risk assessment is very sensitive to both the assumed fragility curves and damage ratios, the estimate of total expected economic losses is more sensitive to the vast differences in damage ratio models considered.     

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of Lightly Reinforced Concrete Beam-Column Joints

Fragility functions play an essential role in evaluating the seismic vulnerability of structures. To establish the seismic fragility functions of lightly Reinforced Concrete (RC) beam-column joints, the Park-Ang Damage model has been amended to quantify the damage states and the modified Bouc-Wen-Baber-Noori model has been employed and implemented in ABAQUS to predict the structural hysteresis behavior. Following successful calibration of the numerical results of a RC test frame from literature, the proposed model has been utilized to assess the seismic fragility curves of low to mid-rise RC frames in Singapore for 30 scaled ground motions using incremental dynamic analysis approach.     

Development of Damage Patterns and Fragility Curves in Brick-nogging Buildings from the Thabeikkyin Earthquake,Myanmar, 2012

The Thabeikkyin earthquake (moment magnitude scale of 6.8) occurred on November 11, 2012; its epicenter was located 25 km from Thabeikkyin Township, Mandalay Region, Myanmar. Many buildings were damaged severely during the earthquake. In this study, damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings were firstly developed, and damage grades were characterized to allow for easy classification of the damaged buildings. The damaged data of all building types in the surveyed areas were collected by classifying the four damage levels as no damage, slight damage, moderate damage, and heavy damage. To develop the damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings, damage categories were arranged into three damage grades (slight, moderate, and heavy damage). Secondly, a questionnaire survey was conducted to calculate the seismic intensities of the affected areas. Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) seismic intensities for the surveyed areas were estimated by analyzing the questionnaire survey responses. Finally, fragility curves for brick-nogging buildings were constructed using the estimated seismic intensities from the survey responses combined with the damage levels. These fragility curves may be useful to assess damage to brick-nogging buildings and to predict the number of damaged buildings in future earthquakes.     

Evaluation of Seismic Risk on UNESCO Cultural Heritage sites in Europe

ABSTRACT

Earthquakes have been responsible for the destruction of hundreds of monuments throughout human history. Due to their size, conservation state, and lack of seismic provisions, monuments are particularly vulnerable to the effects of geological hazards. The first step toward the mitigation of the earthquake threat consists of understanding the existing seismic risk and evaluating possible strategies to reduce it. This study presents a simplified assessment to evaluate the probability of damage due to ground shaking on UNESCO World Heritage cultural sites throughout Europe. The seismic hazard model (SHARE) has been employed to derive hazard curves, which were combined with a fragility model to calculate the annual probability of damage or collapse. These calculations were performed assuming different soil conditions, and the resulting risk metrics can be used for risk awareness, to inform the prioritization of the sites in need of structural interventions, and to support additional risk analysis.     

A Simplified Drift-Based Assessment Procedure for Regular Confined Masonry Buildings in Seismic Regions

This article presents a simplified procedure for assessing the seismic performance of existing low-to-medium rise confined masonry (CM) buildings, which are a typical construction type in Latin-America. The procedure consists of the estimation of the peak roof and first-story inelastic drift demand of CM buildings. The expected peak inelastic displacement demand is related to drift-based fragility curves, which express the probability of being or exceeding two key damage states in the masonry panels, developed from a relatively large experimental database. The proposed procedure could be very useful for obtaining rapid estimates of expected performance during future earthquake events and for assessing the seismic vulnerability of regular confined masonry structures.     

A New Seismic Intensity Parameter to Estimate Damage in Buried Pipelines due to Seismic Wave Propagation

A new seismic intensity parameter to estimate damage in buried pipelines due to seismic wave propagation is proposed. This parameter depends on the peak ground velocity (PGV) and the peak ground acceleration (PGA). It is shown that PGV²/PGA is related to displacement, a parameter directly related to ground strain, which is the main cause of buried pipeline damage. For the case of Mexico City, this parameter exhibits higher correlation with damage than PGA or PGV alone. Finally, we presented intensity-damage relations for the Mexico City's primary water system using PGV²/PGA as the measure of seismic intensity.     

Probabilistic Performance Assessment of Retrofitted Skewed Multi Span Continuous Concrete I-girder Bridges

The unique dynamic response of skewed bridges causes them to experience more noticeable damage compared to straight bridges during seismic events. The effectiveness of different retrofit strategies on the fragility of skewed bridges can change with the skew angle. This article assesses the impact of skew angle and various retrofit strategies on the fragility of multi span continuous concrete I-girder bridges. The results indicate that the level of effectiveness of a retrofit strategy is highly dependent on the skew angle and damage state of interest and an appropriate retrofit strategy should be chosen based on the vulnerability of the components.     

Seismic Fragility Evaluation of RC Frame Structures Retrofitted with Controlled Concrete Rocking Column and Damping Technique

Acceleration response of simple yielding structure is proportional to its own weight, but it is limited by yield strength. Thus, using rocking columns that reduces global yield strength, a limited acceleration is achieved. However, the displacement becomes large due to lower strength and higher inelasticity, but it can be controlled by adding damping. Performing fragility analyses, the seismic response of R/C frame structures with rocking columns and viscous dampers is investigated. Near field MCEER ground motions are considered. The analyses show that the story accelerations are reduced by using rocking columns, while the story displacements are controlled by using viscous dampers.     

Effect of Nonlinear Seismic Torsion on the Performance of Skewed Bridge Piers

This article presents an analytical investigation on the effect of seismic torsion on the performance of a skewed bridge. A nonlinear torsional hysteretic model developed by the authors is applied to idealize the torsional behavior of bridge piers. Deterioration of the torsional strength of piers due to combined flexure is considered and deterioration of flexural strength due to torsion is not taken into account. The effects of pounding between deck and abutments, cable restrainers, and damage of bearing supports are also included in analysis. It is found that the eccentric impact force due to lock of bearing movement results in extensive torsion in piers.     

FRAGILITY ASSESSMENT OF SLAB-COLUMN CONNECTIONS IN EXISTING NON-DUCTILE REINFORCED CONCRETE BUILDINGS

Fragility functions that estimate the probability of exceeding different levels of damage in slab-column connections of existing non-ductile reinforced concrete buildings subjected to earthquakes are presented. The proposed fragility functions are based on experimental data from 16 investigations conducted in the last 36 years that include a total of 82 specimens. Fragility functions corresponding to four damage states are presented as functions of the level of peak interstory drift imposed on the connection. For damage states involving punching shear failure and loss of vertical carrying capacity, the fragility functions are also a function of the vertical shear in the connection produced by gravity loads normalised by the nominal vertical shear strength in the absence of unbalanced moments. Two sources of uncertainty in the estimation of damage as a function of lateral deformation are studied and discussed. The first is the specimen-to-specimen variability of the drifts associated with a damage state, and the second the epistemic uncertainty arising from using small samples of experimental data and from interpreting the experimental results. For a given peak interstorey drift ratio, the proposed fragility curves permit the estimation of the probability of experiencing different levels of damage in slab-column connections.     

A Probability-based Approach for the Definition of the Expected Seismic Damage Evaluated with Non-linear Time-History Analyses

The seismic damage evaluated through Nonlinear Time-History Analyses is significantly affected by the response quantity chosen to represent the seismic responses. Starting from the theory of tolerance regions, a generic upper limit of the seismic responses is proposed. The method is applied to a reinforced concrete structure subjected to different record combinations. For each considered damage index and record combination, the upper limit damage is compared with the average value suggested by seismic codes. The proposed method yields a higher seismic damage than the average response and an increase in the damage indices as the number of records decreases.     

Seismic Reliability Assessment of a High-Voltage Disconnect Switch Using an Effective Fragility Analysis

This article deals with evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of a high-voltage vertical disconnect switch, one of the most vulnerable elements of electric substations. The main objective of the research is to evaluate the seismic fragility of the apparatus using a new effective method. By combining standard reliability methods for time-invariant problems with the response surface technique, this original procedure called “EFA” (Effective Fragility Analysis) permits the evaluation of fragility curves using a very limited number of numerical simulations. On the basis of experimental tests, to determine the mechanical characteristics of the disconnect switch components (ceramic, joints, etc.) the fragility curves of the equipment analyzed are carried out. The results are discussed and compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulations, which confirm the reliability of the procedure.     

An Applied Method for General Regional Seismic Loss Assessment—With A Case Study in Los Angeles County

We describe the formulation and application of an integrated general regional seismic loss assessment (RSLA) method for buildings in seismic regions. An efficient method for RSLA is valuable for engineers involved in city planning, risk management, and insurance dealings. In contrast to previously reported methods, the framework presented herein is hazard-based and utilizes a regional rapid seismic hazard deaggregation tool that allows regional assessment to be conducted more efficiently. The proposed technique is implemented as an example to assess general regional seismic loss in Los Angeles County for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.     

Critical Assessment of Intensity Measures for Seismic Response of Italian RC Bridge Portfolios

The seismic assessment of a road network depends largely on the characterization of the fragility of its bridge components. The accuracy of bridge seismic demand estimates and the use of proper intensity measures (IM) will significantly influence such task. The available literature has mainly focused on buildings or a limited number of bridge configurations and IMs, which may not be representative for bridge portfolio assessment studies. In this paper, the correlation quality between a larger pool of traditional and innovative IMs and the nonlinear dynamic response of typical Italian RC bridges is investigated to identify the best-performing IMs.