Explaining State Budget Punctuations: Policy Transparency,Political Institutions,and Electoral Incentives

What factors cause policies experiencing long periods of stability to be interrupted occationally by a short period of large changes? This study argues that electoral incentives might influence the search, supply, and processing of information on constituency issues, as well as the associated cognitive or institutional frictions, and thus determine the presence and variation of punctuated policies. This article develops and evaluates this claim within a systemic framework consisting of policy transparency, political institutions, and electoral incentives. For the purpose of identifying policy punctuations, this research uses the Generalized Pareto Distribution in the Extreme Value Theory. This study analyzes budget spending data collected from FY 1988 to FY 2008 for all 50 American states. This study finds that greater policy transparency is associated with larger spending stability. By contrast, greater gubernatorial competition is more likely to produce extreme spending changes. Electoral incentives shaped by public preference and political term limits have a profound impact on nonincremental policy changes. The impact of policy transparency is conditional on public preference, while that of electoral competition and legislative professionalism is moderated by political term limits. Particularly, a transparent policy consistent with public preference and legislative professionalism with term limits are more likely to give rise to punctuated policies, while gubernatorial (legislative) competition leads to less punctuated changes when governors (legislators) are subject to term limits.     

Aborigines,mining companies and the state in contemporary Australia: A new political economy or ‘business as usual’?

Since the early 1990s major changes have occurred in the legal, policy and institutional context within which mineral development occurs on Aboriginal land in Australia. This article assesses whether these changes have substantially enhanced the capacity of Aboriginal people to control mining and share in its benefits. It examines, in turn, the major actors involved in mineral development in Australia, the policy positions they are adopting and the way in which they are behaving in relation to mining on Aboriginal land. It concludes that while some Aboriginal groups are gaining greater control over resource development, many have failed to do so, reflecting the fact that the legal, policy and institutional environment remains largely hostile to Aboriginal interests. Only adoption by Aboriginal people of effective political strategies operating on a number of scales can change this situation.     

“Windows of Opportunity,” Revenue Volatility,and Policy Punctuations: Testing a Model of Policy Change in the American States

The growing evidence of policy change patterns characterized as punctuated equilibrium has increasingly directed the attention of policy scholars to the question of what factors cause them. The present study attempts to address this emerging question by developing a comprehensive, multifactorial model and testing it with state budget data. Specifically, based on theories of information processing and agenda setting, it develops a conceptual framework that models punctuated policy change as a function of two main factors: institutional friction (consisting of institutional constraints, legislative streamlining mechanisms, information‐processing capacity, and bureaucratization) and policy windows (consisting of revenue volatility, change in party control, and budget cycle). In doing so, the study pays special attention to cyclical revenue fluctuations whose effect has never been subject to empirical test. Regression analyses reveal that policy window factors including revenue volatility, changes in party control of the governorship and the House, and a budget cycle play an important role in creating policy punctuations.     

Topping Off and Bottoming Out: Setting Budget Priorities Through Executive Power

This article examines the role of the institutional power of executives in public budgeting; specifically, how executives change spending on particular budget items. Leveraging extant theories of the policy process concerning preference expression, attention, and institutions, we argue that executives deepen large cuts and boost large increases in budgetary change. The strictures of the budgetary process force trade-offs for executives in preference expression such that increases to preferred categories typically require decreases in other categories. Literatures in public policy and political representation suggest that all executives would like to express fiscal preferences, thereby contributing to categorical budget oscillations; however, not all executives are created equal. We employ quantile regression to examine whether the institutional strength of governors determine cuts, stasis, and expansion in spending across all budget functions in the American states between 1985 and 2009. Our model includes a host of political and economic variables found in the literature of fiscal policymaking, such as partisanship and divided government. The desire to change policy may be widely shared across executives, but we find that the ability to “top off” categorical increases and bottom out categorical decreases is a function of an executive's capacity to call attention to preferred categories via agenda-setting power and to secure those changes via veto power. The findings show strong governors are well positioned to influence public policy through the budgetary process.     

New institutionalism,critical junctures and post-crisis policy reform

Two accounts of change dominate with new institutional literature. The first emphasises ‘punctuated equilibria’ in which change is shock-driven, sudden and radical enough to loosen path dependencies. The second emphasises a more gradual-incrementalism and a view of change that is more or less constant. This article argues that neither account is suitable for the policy scholar interested in understanding the complexity of a post-crisis reform period and that a synthesis between these two views would better serve those interested in the nuance of post-crisis change. The article provides this synthesis in the form of a reconceptualization of the critical juncture. This reconceptualization merges the punctuated equilibrium and the gradual-incremental views and, in doing so, presents a much more realistic institutional account of the fine print of policy change post-crisis. The reconceptualization is subsequently justified empirically through the analysis of a specific post-crisis reform period (the Queensland floods of 2010–11).     

Big data analytics for mitigating carbon emissions in smart cities: opportunities and challenges

The paper addresses the growing scepticism around big data use in the context of smart cities. Big data is said to transform city governments into being more efficient, effective and evidence-based. However, critics point towards the limited capacity of government to overcome the siloed structure of data storage and manage the diverse stakeholders involved in setting up a data ecosystem. On the basis of this, the paper investigates the challenges city governments face when dealing with big data in the context of carbon emission reduction. Through the lens of the evidence-based policy and policy capacity literature, the cities of Copenhagen (Denmark), London (UK), Malmö (Sweden), Oxford (UK) and Vienna (Austria) are analysed. The cases reveal that the institutional complexity underlying big data integration limits local government capacity to set up data management structures that would allow further utilization of big data and that current solutions focus on local pilot sites and outsourcing of data analytics.     

TERRITORIAL GOVERNANCE,NETWORKS AND POWER: CROSS‐SECTORAL PARTNERSHIPS IN RURAL POLAND

Research on the operation of territorial governance and rural development programmes is dominated by qualitative methodologies, paying little attention heretofore to the characteristics and structures of new horizontal and vertical relationship formations that are the explicit objective of the governance and rural development model. Seeking to address this deficit in the literature, this article adds to a small number of existing contributions that use social network analysis (SNA) to examine the role of inter‐organizational networks in shaping geographic functional regions in the context of governance. Rooted in the methodological perspective of SNA, the analysis focuses on relations between local actors participating in three area‐based rural partnerships in Poland, which are conceptualized as territorially embedded institutional network clusters. The structure of inter‐sectoral relations, understood as interactions (competition, conflict, coordination, cooperation, and control) and flows (information, financial, human, or tangible resources), between the institutional partners of these partnerships is examined. Analysing in detail attributes of network relations, the article identifies structural characteristics of the area‐based partnerships, such as manifestations of how diverse local resources are engaged and how dominance by traditional powerful stakeholders can be overcome by network structures. Structural dynamics and transformations that represent expressions and manifestations of how territorially embedded governance networks are expected to operate are important areas of inquiry in political geography. In this context, the particular empirical and theoretical capacity of SNA is illuminated in this article as part of a broader presentation of primary field data on how network governance and rural development is taking shape in Central and Eastern Europe.     

What do we know about the punctuated equilibrium theory in China? A systematic review and research priorities

The punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) shows that government policy is mostly stable with occasional drastic change, which scholars attribute to institutional friction and limited information processing capacity. Although the existing PET literature predominantly focuses on democracies, scholars have started to apply the theory to authoritarian countries. Autocracies are a fertile testing ground for the theory's underlying mechanisms because they appear to experience less institutional friction but more informational restrictions than democracies. However, PET studies on autocracies are still rare. To deepen our understanding of the PET and the policy process beyond democracies, we conduct a systematic review of 88 Chinese language PET journal articles. We show that Chinese language PET research is increasing. Contrary to the English language PET literature, most Chinese studies are qualitative, while a key similarity is the weak operationalization of PET core concepts. The reviewed studies confirm a punctuated equilibrium pattern of policymaking in China but provide only limited evidence for more intense punctuations compared with democracies. Future PET research on China ought to use long-term data sets and examine institutional friction and information processing by policymakers. We also argue for more international exchange and comparative research to advance our understanding of the policy process in China and other autocracies.     

Adaptive Capacity Within a Mega Project: A Case Study on Planning and Decision-Making in the Face of Complexity

There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and thus dealing with unexpected challenges, is limited. This paper explores the mechanisms that enhance or limit the adaptive capacity within the process of decision-making and planning. We develop the concept of adaptive capacity using organizational learning theory and use empirical data from a mega project in The Netherlands to identify the moments of adaptation and to discern these mechanisms. Mega projects are especially useful objects of analysis as the complexity of their planning and decision-making is extreme, with characteristically very long and controversial processes dotted by recurring deadlocks. In this empirical research we find that incremental adaptations such as mitigation measures are the initial response to deadlocks, but that for deadlocks caused by strong opposition, radical adaptations are needed. A more proactive approach to enhancing adaptive capacity is desirable and might paradoxically even lead to cheaper and more relevant projects and faster planning and decision-making.     

Panorama of the Basque Country and its Competence for Self-Government

The aim of this article is to present a panoramic view of the Basque Country's capacity and competence for self-government. We have analysed the historical process of industrialization, the effects of the industrial crisis and new possibilities for development of the area's own regional policy based on new institutions (Government and Provincial Councils) that emerged from administrative decentralization in Spain after 1980. In the following section, we analyse the scope of authority in EU regions. Some of the cultural and transport infrastructure projects backed by these Basque institutions are studied. These projects have had a considerable impact on the Bilbao Metropolitan Area. The changes observed in the nation state, specifically in Europe, show contradictory effects. However, they have reduced the State's sovereignty but at the same time have prompted the State to retain powers rather than transfer them to lower institutional levels. This clashes with the desire of some regions or historical nations to access greater shares of self-government, such as the case of the Basque Country.     

Welfare Reform and Economic and Housing Capacity for Low-Income Households, 1997–1999

The 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) marked the continued devolution of social policy to state and local government in addition to restructuring an ailing welfare system. Despite concerns that welfare recipients would find greater obstacles to economic stability as a result, declining welfare rolls have been accompanied by declining poverty rates over the past seven years. An important question is whether low‐income families have gained greater employment and housing capacity following welfare reform. Moreover, does capacity vary across states with different welfare policies? In addition, do families face greater economic vulnerability with respect to food scarcity and health care? This article uses the data from the 1997 and 1999 waves of the National Survey of America's Families to systematically assess differences in capacity and vulnerability among lower income families across different policy regimes. Using two measures of capacity for housing and employment, and quality of life, findings suggest that more stringent welfare rules are related to greater job and housing attainment but a reduced quality of life.     

Social Policy Perspectives on Economic Inequality in Wealthy Countries

This essay reviews the policy‐oriented literature on economic inequality in wealthy countries published from 2008 to 2018. We focus on this decade because it is a period bookended by both the beginnings of the Great Recession of 2008–2009 as well as the recovery. During this timeframe, attention to inequality by social policy scholars grew substantially, which we argue reflects an interest in both inequality trends as well as redistributive social policy. We observe in the literature sustained efforts to understand both the relationship between social policy and economic inequality, as well as determinants of changes to redistributive social policy. We also note substantial variation in research traditions, as well as opportunities to address substantive, methodological, and theoretical gaps. Our review summarizes the approaches and findings from the literature and discusses the implications of the findings for the study of economic inequality within the academic field of public policy.     

The Conditioning Effects of Policy Salience and Complexity on American Political Institutions

Years ago, Bill Gormley introduced public policy scholars to a new and innovative salience- complexity typology for regulatory policies. This typology not only helps scholars catalog numerous policies into distinct categories, but also helps explain variation in political processes. Specifically, different policies provide different incentives for political actors to be involved in policymaking. Salience encourages activity on the part of elected officials; complexity often requires policymaking outside of the public sphere. In this article, I extend Gormley's salience-complexity typology to more than just regulatory policies and confirm that levels of institutional activity vary across this range of public policies. I also expand on Gormley's contribution by differentiating the distinct impacts that policy type has on the policy activities of Congress and the presidency, and propose that institutional activity differs according to the dynamics of a policy's salience.     

When Does Government Listen to the Public? Voluntary Associations and Dynamic Agenda Representation in the United States

The aim of the article is to examine how the population size of voluntary associations affects the process through which the public's issue priorities are translated into policy priorities. We conduct a time series analysis of political attention in executive and legislative agendas at the U.S. federal level in the period 1971–2001, covering all issues addressed by the U.S. government. We show that the number of voluntary associations in a policy area has a positive conditioning effect on the link between public priorities and attention for the president's State of the Union Address. However, our results do not find a positive effect for voluntary associations at later stages of the policy cycle, which experience a higher degree of institutional friction. The findings underline the importance of distinguishing between different stages of policymaking when considering the impact of voluntary associations on dynamic agenda responsiveness.     

Political institutions,punctuated equilibrium theory,and policy disasters

This paper develops a theory of the relationship between policy disasters and political institutions. Policy disasters, defined as avoidable, unintended extreme negative policy outcomes, are important political, and historical events above that receive relatively little attention from political scientists and scholars of public policy. Using the predictions of punctuated equilibrium theory, I argue that systems with higher error accumulation will experience more policy disasters. Systems with more veto players and weaker information flows will experience more policy disasters, but information flows will have a stronger impact than veto players. I test this theory using data on financial crises and natural and technological disasters across 70 countries over 60 years. I find strong evidence that systems with weaker information flows and more veto players tend to have greater policy disaster risk.     

Approaching regimes: Australia,Canada, and environmental policy

Study of regimes has become an increasingly important feature of empirical studies of the bases of world order. Much research has focused on the dynamics and internal working of regimes in a number of different policy areas. The determinants of the approaches of states to regimes, however, have been relatively neglected. Using findings from Australian and Canadian approaches to the international environmental regime, this paper explores seven sets of factors that are argued to be crucial to understanding responses: the ecological‐economic milieu of states, the developmental attributes of a regime, bureaucratic politics within national governments, the influence of governmental structures such as federalism, interest group activity, the foreign policy orientations of states, and the regime capabilities of states. Regimes are an enduring feature of international society, but neglect of the complexity and variety of national approaches can lead to ineffectual policy recommendations.     

Contemplating the Role of Precision and Range in Homeland Security Policy Analysis: A Response to Mueller

In an effort to address some of the gaps in homeland security policy analysis—at present a relatively understudied topic from an analytic perspective—Professor Mueller offers an examination of policy decision making for a subset of low probability–high consequence events; particularly the idea of passive asset defense. This article provides a critical examination of Professor Mueller's work, tendering what we identify as a number of critical limitations with his framework and argues it does not provide an adequate basis for sound analysis in this policy area. We also offer several suggestions where one could build upon a portion of the groundwork his paper lays, especially in moving toward a greater appreciation of what terrorism means for an all-hazards management system.     

The Formation of Large-scale Collaborative Resource Management Institutions: Clarifying the Roles of Stakeholders, Science, and Institutions

This article explores the emergence of collaborative institutional arrangements for managing natural resources in large-scale and complex resource settings, among numerous political jurisdictions and stakeholders. It examines four regional institutions in the United States: the Northwest Power and Conservation Council's Fish and Wildlife Program, the Chesapeake Bay Program, the CALFED Bay-Delta Program, and the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. While a wealth of literature has looked at the emergence of smaller-scale resource management institutions, and some literature has begun to look at the characteristics and successes of these regional institutions, theory is lacking to explain the formation of these regional institutions. We first introduce three relevant streams of literature—on common pool resources management, on policy entrepreneurs and social capital, and on science and information in policy change—to frame our analysis. The comparisons of the cases point to the importance of integrating key insights from the literature for understanding the formation of collaborative resource governance. We emphasize how science, leadership, and prior organizational experience interact in facilitating institutional change, particularly in the process of raising awareness about resource management problems. In tracing the formation of these institutions, we also identify how external institutional triggers can help spur collaborative governance.     

Politically Engaged Geographical Research with the Community Sector: Is It Encouraged by Australia's Higher Education and Research Institutions?

With the application of neoliberal thinking to the higher education sector, measures of research quality and utility have proliferated in efforts to increase academic accountability, innovation, and contributions to public policy. We intend to reignite discussion about community activism and the role of the academic in response to trends in higher education policy and recent debate in Australia about research quality assessment and policy relevance. We challenge the common portrayal of the public sector as the sole locus of policy‐making and argue the case for greater recognition of the role of the community sector and its research partners in policy development and implementation – one that is not given due attention in the discourse on or in measures of research value and impact. Informed by recent literature on governance and interpretative approaches to policy analysis, we draw on our combined experience conducting research with two Australian movements at the forefront of reforms to property rights institutions, legal standards, and norms relating to social and economic equity to outline the institutional tensions and structural impediments facing researchers working with the non‐government sector. The paper documents the progressive roles the academic can play in such work, arguing that institutional change is required within the tertiary sector to support researchers to build closer, more trusting research partnerships in which due attention is given to social impact and relevance.