《旅游法》倒逼旅行社经营模式转型

<正>旅行社是旅游业"三大支柱"产业之一,一直以来保持较快增长,截至2013年9月底,全国旅行社总数为25941家。但是,长期以来,旅行社一直采用饱受诟病的"零负团费"、以自费项目进店购物补团费的经营模式。2013年10月1日,《旅游法》正式施行,明确要求旅行社经营"三无"——无"零负团费"、无自费项目、无进店购物,无疑会给旅行社产生深远的影响,旅行社经营策略面临转型。一、《旅游法》对旅行社经营模式的规定2013年10月1日颁布的《旅游法》针对"零负团费"低价操     

对旅行社“零负团费”现象的分析及治理对策

近年来,旅游业作为一项朝阳产业正蓬勃发展,但其中也出现了很多问题,"零负团费"现象日益猖獗,严重影响了旅游业的健康发展。由于各类旅行社的恶意竞争,导游服务意识的缺失,监管力度不足等原因导致了这种旅游乱象的出现,对旅游者的利益造成危害,对旅行社、旅游目的地产生不良影响,所以要采取措施坚决杜绝"零负团费"之类的非正规旅游产品的产生,保护旅游业的稳步发展。     

对旅行社“零负团费”现象的分析及治理对策

近年来,旅游业作为一项朝阳产业正蓬勃发展,但其中也出现了很多问题,"零负团费"现象日益猖獗,严重影响了旅游业的健康发展。由于各类旅行社的恶意竞争,导游服务意识的缺失,监管力度不足等原因导致了这种旅游乱象的出现,对旅游者的利益造成危害,对旅行社、旅游目的地产生不良影响,所以要采取措施坚决杜绝"零负团费"之类的非正规旅游产品的产生,保护旅游业的稳步发展。     

谈新旅游法出台对旅游业的影响

<正>通过对旅游市场乱象的分析,提出新旅游法出台的意义,对旅游业可持续健康发展具有促进作用。《中华人民共和国旅游法》经2013年4月25日十二届全国人大常委会第2次会议通过,中华人民共和国主席令第3号公布。自2013年10月1日起施行。新《旅游法》的颁布标志着中国旅游业将正式进入有法可依的历史阶段。一、我国旅游市场的现状(一)"零负团费"现象零团费旅行团泛指一些仅向游客收取极低费用甚至是免费     

新《旅游法》背景下对加强旅游业发展的思考

2013年10月1日新《旅游法》的实施对遏制"零负团费"、景区门票上涨等违规现象、保障导游员和旅游者的合法权益具有重要作用,对我国旅游业可持续发展有着积极的推动作用,但是目前我国旅游业仍存在旅游市场不规范、专业人才不足、素质不高以及景区管理机制不健全等问题,解决这些问题需要政府、景区和旅行社三方合力,实现我国旅游业可持续发展。     

桂林“七·二六”导游事件的公共政策分析

从公共政策的角度,分析了桂林"七.二六"导游事件,认为该事件引发的旅游公共危机主要是公共政策调整的问题,强调目前零负团费问题实际上是旅游公共管理问题,必须从公共政策及其服务体系建设的层面加以解决。提高政府公共管理水平、完善公共政策服务体系,人才培养是关键,必须尽快提升旅游教育质量和层次,抓紧培养高层次、高水平、高素质的高级旅游专门人才,把塑造旅游教育品牌,造就能够管理现代化政府、引导行业健康发展的旅游精英和行业领袖提到议事日程。     

基于旅游法背景下的旅行社转型升级探讨

<正>我国旅游法颁布后,给旅游业的发展提供了新的机遇。旅行社要适应新的形势,从经营模式、产品类型、企业规模、竞争手段、服务方式、技术手段、人才管理和经营战略等方面加快转型升级。2013年10月1日正式实施的《旅游法》,高度重视旅行社行业的健康发展,在全部的112条中,与旅行社直接相关的条款达45条,占总条款的40%。其中治理"零负团费"、规范导游和领队的行为、强化行业自律、提升管理水平和服务质量等规定,都     

论公共政策的时效性——以《中华人民共和国旅游法》为例

伴随着旅游业的发展壮大,旅游业在国民经济发展中的重要性日益凸显。但如火如荼发展的旅游业却曾一度处于政府立法工作确实的环境中。2013年4月25日,十二届全国人大常委会第二次会议通过了《中华人民共和国旅游法》,弥补了旅游业领域的立法空白。《旅游法》的出台有其时代背景、政治背景和经济环境以及现实紧迫性。值此《旅游法》的出台近一年之际,文章围绕《旅游法》中关于旅行社、旅游景区的个别条文结合频频发生的"零负团费"、"导游打人事件"、"景区滞客事件"进行了关于政策时效性的讨论。     

论公共政策的时效性——以《中华人民共和国旅游法》为例

伴随着旅游业的发展壮大,旅游业在国民经济发展中的重要性日益凸显。但如火如荼发展的旅游业却曾一度处于政府立法工作确实的环境中。2013年4月25日,十二届全国人大常委会第二次会议通过了《中华人民共和国旅游法》,弥补了旅游业领域的立法空白。《旅游法》的出台有其时代背景、政治背景和经济环境以及现实紧迫性。值此《旅游法》的出台近一年之际,文章围绕《旅游法》中关于旅行社、旅游景区的个别条文结合频频发生的"零负团费"、"导游打人事件"、"景区滞客事件"进行了关于政策时效性的讨论。     

浅论新形势下我国导游职业制度

随着《旅游法》于2013年10月1日实施,新的形势要求构建大市场、总协调、宽基础、小管理的旅游管理体制,才能符合旅游综合产业的规律和要求,因此,为了探讨新形势下我国导游职业制度,本文通过导游职业管理制度、完善导游人员权益保障制度、建立导游激励与退出机制的管理制度等论述,指出必须完善导游职业制度体系的措施外,必须要有一个健康的旅游市场环境,这是导游职业制度能够落实的前提和基础,也是最重要的一面,同时落实《旅游法》,根治零负团费,导游职业制度才能够得到落实。     

ON THE BIAS OF MULTIPLIER ESTIMATES*

ABSTRACT. This paper considers the bias of the matrix of multipliers when the underlying data are random. The traditional approach is to specify the stochastic nature of the input coefficients directly. It is shown that this approach implies a transactions table which is biased in a most unbalanced way. Next the practitioner's point of view, i.e., taking the transactions table as the source of random errors, is adopted. One of the results states that, within each row of the multiplier matrix, either the biases are zero, or positive biases are canceled out by negative biases in the sense that their weighted average is zero. The conditions are based on the idea that information on aggregates is more exact than information on their details. The usual asumptions of independence and unbiasedness of the individual errors are avoided. The results are shown to have a direct interpretation in connection with the RAS-updating procedure.     

The trouble with thermospheric vertical winds: geomagnetic,seasonal and solar cycle dependence at high latitudes

The vertical wind component is frequently used to determine the zero-velocity baseline for measurements of thermospheric winds by Fabry-Perot and other interferometers. For many of the upper atmospheric emission lines from which Doppler shifts are determined, for example for the OI 630 nm emission, available laboratory sources are not convenient for long-term use at remote automatic observatories. Therefore, the assumption that the long-term average vertical wind is zero is frequently used to create a baseline from which the Doppler shifts corresponding with the line-of-sight wind from other observing directions can then be calculated. A data base consisting of 1242 nights of thermospheric wind measurements from Kiruna (68°N, 20°E), a high-latitude site, has been analysed. There are many interesting short-term fluctuations of the vertical wind which will be discussed in future papers. However, the mean vertical wind at Kiruna also has a systematic variation dependent on geomagnetic activity, season and solar cycle. This means that the assumption that the average value of the vertical wind is zero over the observing period cannot be used in isolation to determine the instrument reference or baseline. Despite this note of caution, even within the auroral oval, the assumption of a zero mean vertical wind can be used to derive a baseline which is probably valid within 5 ms⁻¹ during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity (K_p < 2), near winter solstice. During other seasons, and during periods of elevated geomagnetic activity, a systematic error in excess of 10 ms⁻¹ may occur.     

旅游、旅游体验和符号--对相关研究的一个评述

本文认为旅游现象的内核是旅游体验,而旅游体验在本质上可以看成是旅游者对符号的解读,将符号的解读和建构纳入旅游体验的研究视野当中,这在国外也是一个比较新颖的议题。为此,本文梳理了国内外旅游体验研究和旅游符号学的研究成果,发现这两个领域的研究现状还比较薄弱,尤其就国内而言．旅游符号学的研究几乎还是一片空白,对旅游体验的关注也远远不够,迫切需要更多学者将目光投射到这两个领域当中来。     

Underurbanisation and the zero urban growth hypothesis: diverted migration in Albania

The author challenges the hypothesis "that the mode of production accounts for the specific forms of urbanisation under socialism and the slow urban growth observed...[and emphasizes instead] the effects of planning in the traditionally organised command economy." It is suggested that strict migration policy is a pivotal factor in achieving zero urban growth. "A case study focusing on patterns of diverted migration and the growth of non-urban settlements on the outskirts of the Albanian capital, Tirana, illustrates how the proposed explanations may help to re-interpret the particulars of urbanisation under orthodox socialist rule."     

Refining the Quadratic Crown Height Method of age estimation: do elk teeth wear quadratically with age?

Teeth are the basis for the best methods for estimating the age-at-death of archaeological and paleontological faunal remains, because they change by eruption and wear throughout an individual's life and because they preserve well. However, age-at-death can be difficult to estimate when teeth are isolated or when no known-age reference sample is available. For these reasons, researchers developed the Quadratic Crown Height Method (QCHM), a set of quadratic formulae that can be used to predict age-at-death from tooth crown height, when unworn crown height and the ages when the tooth erupts and when its crown height should reach zero can be estimated. Previous tests of the QCHM suggest that modified equations could improve the method. Here, we use crown height measurements on a sample of 226 known-age Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) to perform such modifications. We adjust the age at which each tooth type's crown height reaches zero from the species' potential ecological longevity or average maximum life span to an age that we empirically estimate for each tooth type. We also empirically assess whether for different elk teeth the exponent in the QCHM formula is actually equal to 2; it is for M1, but for P4 it is about 1, indicating a roughly linear relationship. The exponents for M2 and M3 are intermediate, being closer to 1.5. Because different teeth wear at different rates and wear completely away at different ages, we recommend that researchers use the modified equations provided here to estimate age-at-death for samples of Cervus elaphus.     

EXTENDING A SMOOTH PARAMETER MODEL TO FIRM LOCATION ANALYSES: THE CASE OF NATURAL GAS ESTABLISHMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper extends recent developments in regional growth modeling that use spatial regime switching functions to a count regression model of firm location events. The smooth parameter count model (SPCM) allows for a parsimonious parameterization of locally varying coefficients while simultaneously attending to excess‐zero count events. An empirical application examines natural gas establishment growth between 2005 and 2010. The smooth parameter model appears to outperform a standard zero‐inflated count model. The SPCM may be extended to the location analysis of other industries with the identification of transition variables related to the supply or demand oriented cost structure of the sector.     

Cruel and unusual

From early April to late June 2018, the nearly 2,600 immigrant children – mostly refugees fleeing violence and poverty in Central America – were forcibly taken from their parents at the United States’ southern border following implementation of the Trump administration's ‘zero tolerance’ policy. The policy took effect when the US Justice Department began aggressively prosecuting undocumented immigrants crossing the US‐Mexico border. Following a public outcry and growing protests, President Trump issued an executive order declaring an end to family separations on 20 June. Several days later, a federal court mandated that the government reunite those immigrant families affected by the ‘zero tolerance’ policy. In mid‐August, more than 550 children who had been detained following the implementation of the policy remained in federal custody. Thousands more ‘unaccompanied minors’ – typically teenagers who were caught crossing the border without adults –remain in indefinite detention. This editorial analyzes this situation from an anthropological perspective by reviewing relevant ethnographic literature on undocumented Latin American immigrants in the US.     

The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Destination Choice of Athenians: An Application of Geographically Weighted Versions of Standard and Zero Inflated Poisson Spatial Interaction Models

The main aim of this article is to combine recent developments in spatial interaction modeling to better model and explain spatial decisions. The empirical study refers to migration decisions made by internal migrants from Athens, Greece. To achieve this, geographically weighted versions of standard and zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) spatial interaction models are defined and fit. In the absence of empirical studies for the effect of potential determinants on internal migration decisions in Greece and the presence of an excessive number of zero migration flows among municipalities in Greece, this article provides empirical evidence for the power of the proposed Geographically Weighted ZIP regression method to better explain destination choices of Athenian internal migrants. We also discuss statistical inference issues in relation to the application of the proposed regression techniques.     

Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland

Some general parameters are proposed for evaluating homeland security measures that seek to make potential targets notably less vulnerable to terrorist attack, and these are then applied to specific policy considerations. Since the number of targets is essentially unlimited, since the probability that any given target will be attacked is near zero, since the number and competence of terrorists is limited, since target-selection is effectively a near-random process, and since a terrorist is free to redirect attention from a protected target to an unprotected one of more or less equal consequence, protection seems to be sensible only in a limited number of instances.