Online petitions in Australia: Information,opportunity and gender

This article compares offline and online petition signing in Australia, to examine whether online forms of political activity can mobilise citizens who would otherwise not participate. Using data from the 2010 Australian Election Study and a model of civic voluntarism comprising online and offline resources, the article presents several unexpected findings. First, women are significantly more likely than men to sign both written and e-petitions, and this will likely continue with the increasing circulation of e-petitions and corresponding decline in written petitions. Second, Australians from a non-English-speaking background are underrepresented in the signing of written petitions but not of e-petitions. Civic skills gained in the workplace and voluntary organisations positively predict both forms of petition signing, but language, gender and income do not constitute barriers to the signing of e-petitions. This article contributes to emerging evidence the internet can mobilise traditionally underrepresented groups to participate in political activity.

本文对澳大利亚脱线和在线请愿做了比较,以了解在线的政治活动能否动员起本来不参与政治的公民。笔者使用了2010年澳大利亚选举研究的数据以及比较在线与脱线资源的公民志愿行动模型,获得了若干意想不到的发现。首先,比起男子,妇女联署纸本及电子请愿书的可能性会大得多,这种情况会伴随着电子请愿的流行和纸本请愿的式微而继续下去。公民在工作单位以及志愿者组织那里获得的技能有助于他们积极参与两种请愿,而语言、性别、收入也不构成电子请愿的障碍。本文印证了互联网可以动员以往不大被代表的人群参与政治活动的说法。     

Policy entrepreneurs and promotion of Australian state knowledge economies

Policy entrepreneurs seek to shift the status quo in given areas of public policy. In doing so, they work closely with others, and their activities call for high levels of political skill. This article examines the actions of policy entrepreneurs who promoted the development of knowledge economies in two Australian states: Queensland and Victoria. During the past two decades, national and sub-national governments around the world have sought to nurture knowledge economies within their borders. Our analysis of knowledge economy advocacy improves understanding of how specific individuals – as strategic team builders – can promote major policy change. This focus on team work and coalition-building as central elements of the process of policy entrepreneurship offers a corrective to some earlier studies that inappropriately conferred lone hero status to policy entrepreneurs.

政策企业家们试图改变公共政策特定领域内的现状。在这个过程中,他们与他人密切合作,他们的活动呼唤高水平的政治技巧。本文考察了政策企业家在澳大利亚的昆士兰和维多利亚两个州促进知识经济的行动。在过去二十年里,世界各地国家以及次国家政府都想在自己的版图内培育知识经济。我们对知识经济促进情况的分析有助于更好地理解何以某些个人如战略团队的建设者们可以促成重要的战略转变。本文聚焦团队工作以及联盟建设,将其视为政策企业家活动的核心因素。这样一种视角是对以往过分强调个人英雄的一种修正。     

The politics of Australia's withdrawal from Iraq

This article examines the complex matrix of public, political and policy debates that were brought to bear on Australia's decision to withdraw from Iraq. In analysing the ‘politics of withdrawal’ in Australia, this article identifies four dominant frames that served to polarise the issue along party-political lines and reduce the complexities of Australia's withdrawal to a set of simple polarities (such as ‘stay the course’ versus ‘responsible withdrawal’). Specifically, these frames obfuscated an assessment of the myriad challenges facing post-Saddam Iraq and the prospects for peace, security and development beyond Australia's withdrawal. Understanding the ways in which Australia framed its decision to disengage from Iraq is critical to further analysis of Australia's approach to current (or future) military draw-downs (such as in Afghanistan), as well as those conducted by other liberal democracies, such as the US and the UK.

澳大利亚从伊拉克撤军的决定引起了公共、政治、政策上的舌剑唇枪,本文探讨了这些辩论的复杂背景。本文分析了澳大利亚的“脱身政治”,发现有四个框框依政党—政治思路将话题两极化,将澳大利亚脱身的复杂性简化成一套极端性（如“坚定不移”对“负责任地脱身”）。特别是这些框框妨碍了对后萨达姆伊拉克所面临的无数挑战的认识,对澳大利亚撤军后的和平、安全、发展前景的认识。理解澳大利亚形成其退出伊拉克决定的方式,对于分析澳大利亚最近的军事低介入（例如在阿富汗）,以及其他自由民主国家如美英的同类选择,都至关紧要。     

Determining the Success of Economic Sanctions

This article applies the social-network conception of national power, derived from the social-network conception of the international system structure, to economic sanctions, one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations. The empirical analyses of economic sanctions presented here find that sanctions cases with disproportional structural-network power between sender and target were far less likely to be successful and those with the target state possessing high structural-network power were far more likely to be successful. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures shows that the sanctions models with new social-network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as the Correlates of War index and GNP.

一些政治学者认为强调农业和农民的“乡村情结”越来越失去其政治和社会意义,但并没有多少实证研究支持这一说法。为此,作者就人们对农业和农民的态度做了探讨性调查。调查结果显示,人们的态度符合“乡村情结式微”论,但会因年龄、位置、出生国、投票意向而有差异。不过,仍存在一种将乡村情结归诸农民的倾向,有对农民生产方式的强烈支持、以及对农业于国家未来重要性的坚信。令人惊奇的是,与过去三十年的市场自由主义相左,对政府之扶助农业的支持可谓强烈。     

The visual dehumanisation of refugees

Dealing with refugees is one of the most contested political issues in Australia. We examine how media images of asylum seekers have framed ensuing debates during two crucial periods over the past decade. By conducting a content analysis of newspaper front pages we demonstrate that asylum seekers have primarily been represented as medium or large groups and through a focus on boats. We argue that this visual framing, and in particular the relative absence of images that depict individual asylum seekers with recognisable facial features, associates refugees not with a humanitarian challenge, but with threats to sovereignty and security. These dehumanising visual patterns reinforce a politics of fear that explains why refugees are publicly framed as people whose plight, dire as it is, nevertheless does not generate a compassionate political response.

如何对待难民是澳大利亚一个最具争议的政治话题。我们考察了在过去十年中的两个关键时期中媒体的避难者形象是如何影响接下来辩论的。根据笔者对报纸的头版所做的内容分析,避难者主要被再现为中、大型群体,多集中在船上。我们认为,这样的视觉形象、尤其是缺少描画个体避难者脸部特征的形象,不会将避难者同人道主义问题联系起来,而只会同威胁主权及安全相链接。这类非人性化的视觉模式强化了恐惧的政治,这也解释了为什么公众认为难民境遇凄惨,却不给他们政治上的同情。     

Leadership and the media: Gendered framings of Julia Gillard's ‘sexism and misogyny’ speech

This article analyses Australian media portrayals of former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's ‘sexism and misogyny’ speech to parliament in October 2012. Our analysis reveals that coverage of the speech comprised three principal gendered framings: strategic attack, uncontrolled emotional outpouring and hypocrisy. We argue that these framings demonstrate the role the media plays as a gendered mediator, perpetuating the gender double bind that constrains female political leaders, as they negotiate the demand to demonstrate masculine leadership attributes without tarnishing the feminine qualities expected of them. In this instance, gendered media framings limited the saliency of Gillard's speech, curtailed calls for wider introspection on Australian political culture and further disassociated women from political leadership.

本文分析了澳大利亚媒体围绕前总理朱丽娅吉拉德2012年在国会的所做“歧视、憎恶女性”的发言对她所做的描画。对那次讲话的报道主要由三个性别镜框构成。一是战略进攻,二是情绪宣泄,三是伪善。我们认为,这些镜框显示了媒体作为性别化的中介,加固了对女性政治领袖性别上的双重束缚：这些领袖既要展示阳刚的领导作风又要不失社会所期待的一些女性气质。在这个案例中,性别化的媒体报道,将吉拉德讲话狭隘化,妨碍了对澳大利亚政治文化的反思,割裂了女性与政治领导的关系。     

The Australian mining tax and the political power of business

This article provides a detailed analysis of the Australian Labor government's mining tax, building on recent debates that critique Lindblom's Politics and markets. We argued that the case illustrates the power of big business, in particular the importance of the relative flexibility of large companies, especially in the form of ‘investment strikes’, although such a strategy is more constrained in the resource sector. We also explore two other key factors. First, we analyse Lindblom's argument that government has resources which big business needs, and suggest that this argument depends on governments being competent in negotiations with large companies. We find that the claim did not apply to the case of the mining tax. Second, we analyse his view that business power owes a great deal to the manipulation of citizens' ‘volitions’. We find some evidence to support this claim, but again suggest that the failure of the government to effectively make the case for a mining tax helped business.

本文就最近有关林德·布罗姆《政治与市场》一书的辩论,对澳大利亚工党政府的矿业税做了详尽的分析。笔者指出,矿业税说明了大企业的力量,尤其是大公司的相对灵活性,特别是他们的“投资罢工”,尽管在资源部门这种策略受到了扼制。笔者还探讨了另外两个关键因素。第一个是林德·布罗姆观点,即政府有大企业所需的资源。此论的根据是政府有能力与大公司讨价还价。笔者认为,这种说法并不适用于矿业税。第二个是,林德·布罗姆认为企业力量很大程度要受公民“意志”的左右。此说有一定根据,但政府未能搞定矿业税则帮了企业。     

Factors of party system fragmentation: A cross-national study

This article uses a representative sample of elections held in 82 countries of the world (1993–2012) for a statistical analysis of factors that explain the number of parties in national legislative elections. The analysis confirms that the proliferation of candidates and/or parties at the district level contributes to the number of national parties, but the other crucial determinant is party system nationalisation. Several factors that are believed to have an impact on party system fragmentation, such as economic wealth, federalism, linguistic fractionalisation and population size, exert their influence on the number of national parties indirectly, by affecting either the number of district parties or party system nationalisation. At the same time, the significance of many other factors, especially those pertaining to electoral systems and the general political–institutional context, can be properly estimated only if the strongest determinants of system-level fragmentation are controlled for.

本文使用了世界82个国家选举（1993—2012）的代表性样本,对国家立法选举中决定政党数量的因素进行了统计分析。作者认为,地区层次的候选人以及/或政党层出不穷,对全国性政党的数量有所影响,而政党体系的全国化也是一个关键因素。有几个因素估计对政党体系的碎片化有影响,像经济财富、联邦主义、语言及人口规模等等便通过影响地区政党的数量或政党体系的全国化,而对全国性政党的数量产生了间接的影响。与此同时,其他许多因素,尤其是涉及选举制度以及一般政治—体制环境的因素,也可以进行恰当地评估,但要以决定了体制层面碎片化的最强因素作为对照。     

Conservative instinct in Australian political thought: The Federation debates, 1890–1898

Many historians of Australian political thought have attributed its pragmatic and anti-speculative tendencies to a Benthamite influence. Without denying the influence of Bentham and Benthamism on Australian thought and institutional development, this article challenges the assumption that the abovementioned tendencies necessarily betray a Benthamite heritage. By analysing the theoretical justifications for pragmatic, anti-speculative approaches to institutional design in the Federation debates (1890–1898), this article shows that there was a very strong Burkean impulse behind the sort of pragmatism that is usually attributed to Bentham. If the argument of this article is correct, then it is an invitation for historians and political scientists to reconsider significantly the nature of Australian political thought.

研究澳大利亚政治思想的史家将澳大利亚政治思想的实用、反思辨倾向归之于边沁的影响。本文并不否认边氏对澳大利亚思想以及制度发展的影响,但对上述倾向为边氏遗产的说法不能赞同。笔者分析了联邦辩论（1890—1898）中实用的、反思辨的制度设计,指出通常被归到边沁的实用主义,其背后跃动的实乃伯克的思想。如果此论不谬,历史学者和政治学者就应好好考虑澳大利亚政治思想的性质了。     

Legislative accountability in a mixed-member system

Accountability of representatives to electors is a key indicator of democratic health. In mixed-member systems, the coexistence of two kinds of representation provides the opportunity to test competing claims with minimal confounding factors. There is debate about the relative accountability of constituency and list MPs, and in particular, concerning dual candidacy, where individuals can stand for both constituency and list seats. Analysing New Zealand elections since 1999, with comparisons back to the previous single-member plurality system, this article examines the effects of dual candidacy, legislative turnover and the cases where constituency or electorate MPs have lost their seats, but remained in Parliament as list members.

代表对选民负责乃民主是否健康的一个关键指标。在混合成员制下,两类代表的共存为比较单纯地检验其竞争的主张提供了机会。不过,选区及名单议员的相对责任,尤其在一个个体可以既代表选区又代表名单席位的情况下的责任,对此是有争议的。本文分析了新西兰1999年以来的选举,并与之前的单一成员多数选举制做了对比,还考察了双重候选人制的效果、议员的流动、以及选区或议员落选但依然是国会名单成员的情况。     

Democracy's not for me: The Lowy Institute polls on Gen Y and democracy

For two consecutive years, the Lowy Institute Poll has revealed just how little Australians seem to value democracy. This has particularly been the case for Australia's so-called Generation Y. Understandably, these findings have aroused dismay among media, policy and academic commentators, with many automatically assuming the troubling nature of these findings. Despite this, little consideration has been given to what the results actually denote, and what they were not telling us about the rationale and justification behind the Gen Y responses. This critical commentary offers some preliminary thoughts and findings on what the Lowy Polls are not telling us; as well as on what they are telling us.

连续两年,罗伊民调所发现澳大利亚人对民主评价极低。澳大利亚所谓的“Y一代”尤其如此。可以想见,这样的发现让媒体以及政策和学术评论者失望不已,许多人会马上想到这些发现会造成的麻烦。其实,很少有人思考这类发现的真实所指,思考关于Y一代反应所没有讲出的东西。这篇批评性文章提供了一些初步的想法和发见：罗伊民调除了讲了什么,它还没讲什么？     

Australia's Campaign for Security Council Membership

The United Nations Security Council has global responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It is therefore essential for Australia to nominate periodically for non-permanent membership, and 2013–14 was the earliest feasible opportunity available to the Rudd government. Australia's uneven record of participation in the United Nations over the last decade and a half was an impediment to election, but recent renewed commitment to international law and upgraded multilateral engagement, among other factors, strengthened the case for election. Australia was elected in the first round of voting, principally due to effective political leadership and the sustained campaign organised by diplomatic officers. Membership will enable Australia to participate actively in discussion of issues on the Council's agenda and to lead discussion of two or three additional subjects.

联合国安理会负有维护国际和平及安全的责任。因此澳大利亚有必要定期提名为非常任理事国,2013—14年对陆克文政府是最早的机会。过去十五年中澳大利亚参与联合国事务颇不均衡,这不利于其当选。而最近它对国际法的重新关注、对多边关系的提升则有助于其当选。澳大利亚主要由于有效的政治领导和外交官坚持不懈的努力而在第一轮投票中当选。有了成员国资格,澳大利亚就能积极参与安理会的讨论,并领导两三个附加议题的讨论。     

Corruption and confidence in Australian political institutions

Corruption is inimical to public support for democratic government. This article uses Australian public opinion surveys to clarify the link between corruption and views of political institutions. The results show that citizens' personal experiences of corruption among public officials are negligible, but that three in four believe that there is some corruption among politicians and almost half believe that corruption in Australia is increasing. Perceptions of corruption matter much more than personal experiences of corrupt public officials in shaping confidence in political institutions. For policy-makers, the findings have implications for how corruption is handled, and in the measures that should be put in place to allay the public's fears about the increase in corruption.

腐败妨碍了公众对民主政府的支持。本文使用澳大利亚舆论调查,澄清了腐败与政治体制观的联系。研究显示公民个人对于公职人员腐败的经验可以忽略不计。倒是四分之三的人相信政客中存在某种腐败,几乎近一半人相信腐败在澳大利亚与日俱增。对腐败的认识,比个人对公职人员中腐败的耳闻目见,对于形成对政治体制的信赖要重要得多。对于政策制定者,这些发现有助于他们处理腐败,采取措施缓和公众对于日增的腐败的恐惧。     

Research NotePork-Barrelling in Australian Politics: A Reconsideration of Leigh

This research note replicates Leigh's (2008) analysis of pork-barrelling in Australian politics and tests the validity of his findings using geographic techniques. Distributive politics is integral to nearly all theories of legislative politics because it is fundamental to the connection between legislators and constituents, and can be used to facilitate coalition-building. This note addresses an aspect of pork-barrelling that has been overlooked in most previous scholarship. It argues that distributive politics is, at its core, a geographic, constituency-centred process. It is therefore essential to reconsider the conventional models and take geography into account in both substantive and statistical terms. To that end, we replicate several of Leigh's results using a relatively new technique, Geographically Weighted Regression, and reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in the coefficients. Our findings highlight the importance of political geography and have important implications for studies of legislative politics and elections.

本文重复了李（2008）对澳大利亚政治分肥拨款的分析,用地理学技术检测了其发现有效性。分配政治内在于几乎所有的立法政治理论,因为它是立法者与选民之间联系的基础,有利于联盟的构建。本文探讨了分肥拨款被以往学术研究所忽略的一个方面。作者认为,分配政治其核心是一个地理的、以选区为中心的过程。因此有必要重新检讨固有的模式,切实而且从统计的意义上采纳地理的视角。我们使用了一种相对新近的技术,即地理加权回归分析来重复李的几个成果,发现空间同质系数很高。我们的发现突出了政治地理的重要性,对于立法政治以及选举的研究有参考意义。     

Public support for ANZUS: Evidence of a generational shift?

Recent polling has shown that younger Australians are less likely to support the alliance with the USA than older Australians. This may reflect the passing of the wartime generation from the Australian population and the rise of a new, better educated, more multicultural Australia less sympathetic to the USA. Some have concluded that Australia may be undergoing a generational shift away from alignment with the USA. In this article, I pool all Australian Election Studies from 1993 to 2013 to assess this possibility. I find that ageing, not formative political experiences, pushes Australians in a more pro-American direction. Additionally, degree holders and Australians from non-Anglo-Australian backgrounds are slightly less likely to support Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), but the alliance still commands comfortable majority support even here. ANZUS is therefore likely to remain a popular component of Australian foreign policy for the foreseeable future.

最近的民调显示,相对于老辈,年轻的澳大利亚人不大会支持美澳联盟。这也许是因为战争一代逝去,受过良好教育、多文化的新一代对美国较少好感。一些人认为澳大利亚正在经历一个代际转移,不再站美国一边。笔者网罗了1993至2013年澳大利亚的全部选举研究,以评估这种可能性。笔者发现,年龄的增长而不是形成阶段的政治经历造成澳大利亚人更为亲美。再有,有学历的和非盎克鲁撒克逊背景的澳大利亚人对澳新美安保条约的支持度要稍低一些。但即便是这部分人口,支持美澳联盟的也占大多数。在可预见的未来,澳新美联盟依然会是澳大利亚对外政策得民意的一部分。     

John Howard and the ‘Anglospherist’ reshaping of Australia

The conceptual category of the Anglosphere never found explicit currency in John Howard's narrative when he was prime minister. While in office, he ostentatiously avoided ‘putting Australia into a particular sphere – Anglo or otherwise’. This article suggests instead that his endeavour to reshape Australia drew on an Anglospherist perspective. The reshaping of Australia he undertook when he won office rested on two pillars of Anglospherism: the rejection of multiculturalism and the alignment to countries with ‘shared values’ in Australia's external relations. The article traces how these two Anglospherist precepts found actual implementation in Howard's re-framing of ‘Australian multiculturalism’ and re-conceptualisation of ‘Australia's engagement with Asia’.

约翰·霍华德担任总理期间,英语圈的说法在他的叙述里并不通行。在他的官方官样文章里,他明确地避免把澳大利亚放进特定的圈子——英语圈也好,别的圈也好。霍华德在职的时候重塑澳大利亚的努力,其实是基于英语圈的视角。他赢得竞选时要重塑澳大利亚的事业,有两个英语圈的支柱：拒绝多元文化;对外关系中优先“持共同价值观”的国家。本文研究了霍华德如何将这两个英语圈思路落实到对“澳大利亚多元文化”的重新塑造、对“澳大利亚与亚洲关系”的重新思考中的。     

Deterring the ‘boat people’: Explaining the Australian government's People Swap response to asylum seekers

This article examines why Australia has taken a tough stance on ‘boat people’, through an analysis of the Malaysian People Swap response. The findings support the view that populism, wedge politics and a culture of control drive Australia's asylum-seeker policy agenda. The article further argues that these political pressures hold numerous negative implications for the tone of Australia's political debate and the quality of policy formulation, as well as for asylum seekers and refugees themselves.

本文通过分析“马来人交换协议”的反响,探讨了为什么澳大利亚对“船民”采取了一种严厉的立场。根据作者的研究,民粹主义、极端政治以及控制的文化推动了澳大利亚的难民政策。作者指出,这些政治压力给澳大利亚政治辩论的定调以及政策制定的质量,对避难者和难民,都带来消极的影响。     

The Limits of Compulsion: Demographic Influences on Voter Turnout in Australian State Elections

It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself.

人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。     

Julia Gillard's Citizens' Assembly Proposal for Australia: A Deliberative Democratic Analysis

Many governments have embraced the rhetoric of inclusive citizen engagement. Greater public involvement promises to strengthen democratic institutions and improve the quality of policy decisions and services. How do these aspirations sit alongside the reality of Australian federal politics? This article investigates the responses of elite policy actors to the Gillard government's proposal to conduct a citizens’ assembly on climate change in 2010. Drawing on over 200 media articles, the authors identify a series of procedural, institutional and political objections raised by elite commentators against the citizens’ assembly proposal. Many of these objections have little basis in the experience of deliberative designs in practice. Some, however, reflect the challenge of realising inclusive, deliberative governance in highly politicised contexts.

很多政府对公民广泛参与的说辞爱不释手。更大程度上的公共参与有助于强化民主体制,改善政策及服务的质量。这种渴望与澳大利亚联邦政治的现实相处如何呢？本文考察了政策精英对杰拉德政府倡议在2010年召开的气候变化公民大会的反应。本文浏览了200多篇媒体文章,发现了这些人从程序、体制、政治等等方面反对公民大会的倡议。不少反对意见在精心设计的实践经验中并没多少基础。但有些却反映了高度政治化的语境中正在实现的广泛参与所构成的挑战。     

The construction of a ‘narrative’ in Australian federal budget speeches, 1996–2013

Given the significance of annual budgetary decisions in both fiscal terms and policy reach, the annual federal budget speech has a distinctive place in Australia's parliamentary cycle. The speeches afford a government a significant opportunity to articulate its economic policy agenda and to contrast its agenda with that of its predecessors or the Opposition. This article reviews the budget speeches of two Treasurers, Peter Costello (Liberal, 1996–2007) and Wayne Swan (Labor, 2008–13), and compares them with respect to how they used the budget speech to position their parties and their governments. Costello's speeches are singular, consistent and highly partisan. Swan eschewed the ‘ad hominem’ argument favoured by Costello, but failed to project an alternative, consistent narrative of his government's agenda and achievements.

年预算无论是财政上还是政策上都至关重要,因此年度联邦预算讲话在澳大利亚的国会程序中有着特殊的位置。这个讲话为政府提供了阐述其经济政策并比较其前任或反对党经济政策的机会。本文研究了两任财长即彼得考斯特罗（自由党,1996-2007）和怀恩斯万（工党,2008-13）的讲话,比较了两人如何利用预算讲话阐明其政党和政府的立场。考氏的讲话不同凡响、一以贯之,具有鲜明的党派倾向。斯万不像考氏那样个人风格,但他没能就其政府的议题和成就拿出一个别样、连贯的讲述。