Online petitions in Australia: Information,opportunity and gender

This article compares offline and online petition signing in Australia, to examine whether online forms of political activity can mobilise citizens who would otherwise not participate. Using data from the 2010 Australian Election Study and a model of civic voluntarism comprising online and offline resources, the article presents several unexpected findings. First, women are significantly more likely than men to sign both written and e-petitions, and this will likely continue with the increasing circulation of e-petitions and corresponding decline in written petitions. Second, Australians from a non-English-speaking background are underrepresented in the signing of written petitions but not of e-petitions. Civic skills gained in the workplace and voluntary organisations positively predict both forms of petition signing, but language, gender and income do not constitute barriers to the signing of e-petitions. This article contributes to emerging evidence the internet can mobilise traditionally underrepresented groups to participate in political activity.

本文对澳大利亚脱线和在线请愿做了比较,以了解在线的政治活动能否动员起本来不参与政治的公民。笔者使用了2010年澳大利亚选举研究的数据以及比较在线与脱线资源的公民志愿行动模型,获得了若干意想不到的发现。首先,比起男子,妇女联署纸本及电子请愿书的可能性会大得多,这种情况会伴随着电子请愿的流行和纸本请愿的式微而继续下去。公民在工作单位以及志愿者组织那里获得的技能有助于他们积极参与两种请愿,而语言、性别、收入也不构成电子请愿的障碍。本文印证了互联网可以动员以往不大被代表的人群参与政治活动的说法。     

Deterring the ‘boat people’: Explaining the Australian government's People Swap response to asylum seekers

This article examines why Australia has taken a tough stance on ‘boat people’, through an analysis of the Malaysian People Swap response. The findings support the view that populism, wedge politics and a culture of control drive Australia's asylum-seeker policy agenda. The article further argues that these political pressures hold numerous negative implications for the tone of Australia's political debate and the quality of policy formulation, as well as for asylum seekers and refugees themselves.

本文通过分析“马来人交换协议”的反响,探讨了为什么澳大利亚对“船民”采取了一种严厉的立场。根据作者的研究,民粹主义、极端政治以及控制的文化推动了澳大利亚的难民政策。作者指出,这些政治压力给澳大利亚政治辩论的定调以及政策制定的质量,对避难者和难民,都带来消极的影响。     

Research NotePork-Barrelling in Australian Politics: A Reconsideration of Leigh

This research note replicates Leigh's (2008) analysis of pork-barrelling in Australian politics and tests the validity of his findings using geographic techniques. Distributive politics is integral to nearly all theories of legislative politics because it is fundamental to the connection between legislators and constituents, and can be used to facilitate coalition-building. This note addresses an aspect of pork-barrelling that has been overlooked in most previous scholarship. It argues that distributive politics is, at its core, a geographic, constituency-centred process. It is therefore essential to reconsider the conventional models and take geography into account in both substantive and statistical terms. To that end, we replicate several of Leigh's results using a relatively new technique, Geographically Weighted Regression, and reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in the coefficients. Our findings highlight the importance of political geography and have important implications for studies of legislative politics and elections.

本文重复了李（2008）对澳大利亚政治分肥拨款的分析,用地理学技术检测了其发现有效性。分配政治内在于几乎所有的立法政治理论,因为它是立法者与选民之间联系的基础,有利于联盟的构建。本文探讨了分肥拨款被以往学术研究所忽略的一个方面。作者认为,分配政治其核心是一个地理的、以选区为中心的过程。因此有必要重新检讨固有的模式,切实而且从统计的意义上采纳地理的视角。我们使用了一种相对新近的技术,即地理加权回归分析来重复李的几个成果,发现空间同质系数很高。我们的发现突出了政治地理的重要性,对于立法政治以及选举的研究有参考意义。     

The politics of lowering the voting age in Australia: Evaluating the evidence

There is a vigorous international debate about lowering the voting age to 16, with some jurisdictions already moving in this direction. The issue of the voting age also intersects with broader normative and empirical approaches to youth political engagement. Using evidence from Australia, this article evaluates empirically the arguments put forward for lowering the voting age. The findings suggest only partial support for lowering the voting age to bring it into line with other government-regulated activities. There is no evidence that lowering the voting age would increase political participation or that young people are more politically mature today than they were in the past. The absence of empirical support for the arguments in favour of lowering of the voting age has implications for how to transform democracy in order to attract greater youth engagement.

是否把选举年龄降到16岁,国际上有着激烈的辩论。有些法律体系已在朝这个方向运动。选举年龄的话题与更广泛的、有关青年政治参与的规范性及经验性研究有所交集。本文根据澳大利亚的资料,从实证的角度评论了主张降低投票年龄的观点。本文的发见仅部分支持降低选举年龄与有关政府法规的接轨。现在无法证明降低选举年龄会提高政治参与,也无法证明今天的年轻人比过去的年轻人政治上更成熟。降低选举年龄的主张缺少实证的支持,那么该如何改变民主制度以吸引年轻人更多的参与呢？     

Government funding of non-governmental organisations and the implied freedom of political communication: The constitutionality of gag clauses

Provisions in government funding agreements with non-governmental organisations (NGOs) may constrain the ability of these organisations to contribute to political debate. NGOs perceive risks to their funding if they criticise government policy. Such organisations play a significant role in the democratic process, and this article examines the applicability of the constitutional freedom of political communication to ‘gag clauses’. Australian courts have not considered the constitutional freedom in this context, but the Supreme Court of the United States has considered the question in relation to the First Amendment. The article shows what can be learned from American jurisprudence and Australian case law in order to challenge such provisions.

政府与非政府组织的资助协议中的条款约束了这些组织进行政治辩论的能力。非政府组织如果批评政府的政策就会感到资助受到威胁。非政府组织在民主过程中扮演了重要的角色,本文政治探讨了交流的宪政自由能否适用于“钳口条款”。澳大利亚法庭没有处理过此类宪政自由的案子,不过美国高等法庭倒是处理过和第一修正案相关的问题。本文分析了可以从美国的司法以及澳大利亚的案例法中学到什么,以挑战这类条款。     

Freedom of speech and racial vilification in Australia: ‘The Bolt case’ in public discourse

This article examines the public discourse that emerged in the aftermath of the 2011 decision of the Federal Court of Australia in Eatock v Bolt. We characterise the narrative of ‘the Bolt case’ as a ‘mobilising discourse’ that countered rather than echoed the decision itself. This discourse had three main messages: encouraging scepticism about the authenticity of fair-skinned Aboriginal persons and judgment by non-Aboriginal persons about the legitimacy of Aboriginal identity according to skin colour; questioning the legitimacy of racial vilification laws and strengthening a libertarian conception of freedom of speech. We explain how such a contrary discourse became dominant in the wake of a successful racial vilification action and consider the implications of these events.

本文研究了2011年澳大利亚联邦法庭就伊脱克诉博尔特案做出判决后的公众议论。博尔特案的叙事属于“动员话语”,是对判决的反弹而非反响。该话语主要包括三个信息：鼓励对浅肤色原住人士的真实性的质疑,鼓励由非原住人士根据肤色判定原住民身份的合法性;质疑种族诽谤法的合理性;支持言论自由的观念。笔者解释了何以这种矛盾的话语盛行于一次成功的种族诽谤行动之后,并讨论了这些事件的影响。     

Business associations and the politics of contained participation in Vietnam

The development of the private sector in Vietnam since the mid-1990s has accompanied the emergence of organised business interests, which is recognised as vital to pursuing the agenda of economic modernisation. This article aims to explore the significance of the interactions between the state and business associations representing small-and-medium enterprises. It demonstrates that business associations have transformed state–business relations in a way that is distinguishable from state corporatism or societal pluralism. The analysis examines the interplay between state actors and emerging non-state entities, and the deliberative capacity of intermediary organisations in the policy-making process, specifically through the Vietnam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises. It is argued that this process constitutes a new mode of political participation that reflects the entanglement of the state and private capital interests. It reveals features of contained participation and contributes to the research agenda on deliberative and governance practices in post-socialist transitional economies.

越南私有部门自1990年代中期以来的发展,伴随着管理有组织商业利益的立法的出台。而有组织的商业利益被视为实现经济现代化的关键。本文探讨了国家与商业协会在为中小企业打造适宜市场环境方面所进行的互动。商业协会成为具有战略意义的政治主体,以一种不同于国家统合主义或社会多元主义的方式改写了政府和商业的关系。本文探讨了国家主体与新兴非国家实体之间的相互作用,并评价了中间组织——尤其像越南中小企业协会——在政策制定过程中的协商能力。作者认为,该过程造成了一种新的政治参与方式,反映了国家和私人资本利益之间的纠结。它还揭示了其中所包含的参与的诸特点,并对于研究后社会主义转型经济体中出现的协商及治理实践,或能起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

The Australian mining tax and the political power of business

This article provides a detailed analysis of the Australian Labor government's mining tax, building on recent debates that critique Lindblom's Politics and markets. We argued that the case illustrates the power of big business, in particular the importance of the relative flexibility of large companies, especially in the form of ‘investment strikes’, although such a strategy is more constrained in the resource sector. We also explore two other key factors. First, we analyse Lindblom's argument that government has resources which big business needs, and suggest that this argument depends on governments being competent in negotiations with large companies. We find that the claim did not apply to the case of the mining tax. Second, we analyse his view that business power owes a great deal to the manipulation of citizens' ‘volitions’. We find some evidence to support this claim, but again suggest that the failure of the government to effectively make the case for a mining tax helped business.

本文就最近有关林德·布罗姆《政治与市场》一书的辩论,对澳大利亚工党政府的矿业税做了详尽的分析。笔者指出,矿业税说明了大企业的力量,尤其是大公司的相对灵活性,特别是他们的“投资罢工”,尽管在资源部门这种策略受到了扼制。笔者还探讨了另外两个关键因素。第一个是林德·布罗姆观点,即政府有大企业所需的资源。此论的根据是政府有能力与大公司讨价还价。笔者认为,这种说法并不适用于矿业税。第二个是,林德·布罗姆认为企业力量很大程度要受公民“意志”的左右。此说有一定根据,但政府未能搞定矿业税则帮了企业。     

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

Public support for ANZUS: Evidence of a generational shift?

Recent polling has shown that younger Australians are less likely to support the alliance with the USA than older Australians. This may reflect the passing of the wartime generation from the Australian population and the rise of a new, better educated, more multicultural Australia less sympathetic to the USA. Some have concluded that Australia may be undergoing a generational shift away from alignment with the USA. In this article, I pool all Australian Election Studies from 1993 to 2013 to assess this possibility. I find that ageing, not formative political experiences, pushes Australians in a more pro-American direction. Additionally, degree holders and Australians from non-Anglo-Australian backgrounds are slightly less likely to support Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), but the alliance still commands comfortable majority support even here. ANZUS is therefore likely to remain a popular component of Australian foreign policy for the foreseeable future.

最近的民调显示,相对于老辈,年轻的澳大利亚人不大会支持美澳联盟。这也许是因为战争一代逝去,受过良好教育、多文化的新一代对美国较少好感。一些人认为澳大利亚正在经历一个代际转移,不再站美国一边。笔者网罗了1993至2013年澳大利亚的全部选举研究,以评估这种可能性。笔者发现,年龄的增长而不是形成阶段的政治经历造成澳大利亚人更为亲美。再有,有学历的和非盎克鲁撒克逊背景的澳大利亚人对澳新美安保条约的支持度要稍低一些。但即便是这部分人口,支持美澳联盟的也占大多数。在可预见的未来,澳新美联盟依然会是澳大利亚对外政策得民意的一部分。     

Lobbying and minority government in Australia: The concept of the marginal member

Within Westminster-based majority parliaments, the presence of minority government runs contrary to the conventional wisdom. Over the last 40 years, however, there has been a steady voting trend away from major parties in many of these parliaments. The complex composition of the Australian Senate after July 2014 reinforces that non-ministerial marginal members continue to be a vital part of the political landscape. This article introduces the concept of the marginal member and examines the potential influence of these members for legislative outcomes and lobbying success. In doing so, the article provides a heuristic through which to identify avenues of policy influence and presents a range of strategies for lobbyists working with marginal members within minority-government contexts.

在英式多数制议会内,少数党政府的存不符合传统的智慧。在以往40年里,许多英式议会出现了一种偏离多数党的稳定趋势。澳大利亚参院2014年之后的复杂构成,说明非内阁边缘成员依然是政治格局中有活力的部分。本文提出了边缘成员的概念,考察了他们对立法结果及游说成败的潜在影响力。本文提供了一种关于政策影响渠道的思路,以及在少数党政府的情况下如何游说边缘成员的一系列办法。     

Paul Keating and leadership: Was the ‘personal’ political?

This article proposes three possible reasons why political leaders abide by policy decisions in the face of vigorous opposition – because they perceive the policy to be ‘right’, because abiding by a decision is necessary to appear ‘strong’, or because of personal motives arising from the leader themselves. The article applies this framework to Paul Keating's apparent refusal, as Treasurer in 1989, to consider mortgage relief in the midst of prohibitively high interest rates arising from monetary policy at that time. The article concludes that it is the ‘personal’ dimension that most explains Keating's decision-making on this issue. This is a significant finding given that such personal motives are incapable of legitimation in liberal democratic terms, yet policy decisions arising from them can have an immense impact.

政治领导人在强大的反对力量面前坚持其政策决定。本人分析了三种可能的原因：认定其政策正确;欲显示强大需坚持政策;领导者个人方面的动机。本文根据这个思路分析了保罗齐丁。保罗1989年任澳大利亚财长时面对当时货币政策造成的利率奇高的局面而拒绝考虑抵押减免。笔者认为,个人因素可以解释保罗的决策。这个发见很重要,因为个人动机在自由民主那里虽无合法性,但由此做出的决定却能产生广大的影响。     

Conservative instinct in Australian political thought: The Federation debates, 1890–1898

Many historians of Australian political thought have attributed its pragmatic and anti-speculative tendencies to a Benthamite influence. Without denying the influence of Bentham and Benthamism on Australian thought and institutional development, this article challenges the assumption that the abovementioned tendencies necessarily betray a Benthamite heritage. By analysing the theoretical justifications for pragmatic, anti-speculative approaches to institutional design in the Federation debates (1890–1898), this article shows that there was a very strong Burkean impulse behind the sort of pragmatism that is usually attributed to Bentham. If the argument of this article is correct, then it is an invitation for historians and political scientists to reconsider significantly the nature of Australian political thought.

研究澳大利亚政治思想的史家将澳大利亚政治思想的实用、反思辨倾向归之于边沁的影响。本文并不否认边氏对澳大利亚思想以及制度发展的影响,但对上述倾向为边氏遗产的说法不能赞同。笔者分析了联邦辩论（1890—1898）中实用的、反思辨的制度设计,指出通常被归到边沁的实用主义,其背后跃动的实乃伯克的思想。如果此论不谬,历史学者和政治学者就应好好考虑澳大利亚政治思想的性质了。     

Profiling Politicians in Solomon Islands: Professionalisation of a Political Elite?

This article examines the key attributes of members of parliament from Solomon Islands. Drawing on bio-data on MPs, interviews and election results, the authors’ findings show that politicians are getting older, have atypical education levels and are from an increasingly diverse range of occupational backgrounds. The authors also find that, while Solomon Islands MPs are a political elite of sorts, they remain tightly tied to their communities. They consider the implications of these findings for research on developmental leadership, political professionalisation and elite theory. They argue that none of these three literatures adequately captures the political trajectories of politicians in Solomon Islands but that this case study contributes to research in these areas.

本文探讨了所罗门群岛议会成员的一些重要属性。作者根据对议员们传记、访谈和选举结果等资料的研究,发现政治家年龄越来越大,教育水平不太典型,职业背景愈益多样。作者同时发现,所罗门群岛议员虽属政治精英,但与各自的社群都保持紧密的联系。作者讨论了这些发现对于发展型领导人、政治职业化及精英理论所具有的意义。作者指出,这三方方面的文献都未能捕捉到所罗门群岛政治家的政治轨迹,而本研究却对此有所贡献。     

The opinion–policy link in Australia

Whether or not policy is responsive to public opinion is central to questions of representation. Democracy by many accounts is premised on there being a strong correspondence between public opinion and policy. This link has not, however, been examined in detail in Australia. This article examines the policy–opinion link in a more robust way than that has previously been achieved in Australia, through the use of legislative data from the Australian Policy Agendas Project (APAP) and public opinion data from Roy Morgan. The article asks: is policy congruent with public opinion in Australia? In addressing this question, we examine to what extent policy accords with the preferences of the public. This in turn provides us with some answers about how representative Australian democracy is, as well as contributing to an international debate about the responsiveness of policy to public opinion.

政策是否要对舆论负责,这是代表制的核心问题。民主的前提往往就在于舆论和政策之间的息息相通。但在澳大利亚,人们并没有仔细地研究过二者间的关联。本文根据澳大利亚政策议题计划提供的立法资料以及罗伊摩根提供的舆情资料,对政策—舆论关联做了比以往充分多的研究。本文试问：政策与舆论在澳大利亚是否一致？我们考察了政策在多大程度上符合民意。这也为澳大利亚民主在多大程度上具有代表性的问题提供了答案,对于国际上争论政策对民意的回应问题也具有参考意义。。     

Beyond Mainstream Approaches to Political Participation: A Response to Aaron Martin

Aaron Martin's (2012) recent article is the first to use survey data to compare the political participation of young people with that of older age groups in Australia. As such, it adds to our empirical knowledge of political participation, particularly by emphasising the changing focus of young people's engagement. Yet, like most mainstream, and especially quantitative, political participation researchers, Martin does not engage adequately with the growing, more critical literature). This response raises some of the issues emphasised in this literature, relating them directly to Martin's contribution. It has four sections: firstly, a brief consideration of Martin's main conclusions; secondly, a discussion of putative reasons for the change in forms of participation; thirdly, a consideration of broader forms of political participation; and finally, a consideration of the relationship between identity and political participation, which is at the core of most broader discussions of the latter.

阿隆·马丁（2012）在最近的文章中首先使用调查资料对澳大利亚年轻人和更年长者的政治参与做了比较。他的研究,特别是关于年轻人参与焦点的转移那部分,丰富了关于政治参与的实证知识。但与从事政治参与的主流尤其是定量研究的学者一样,马丁对于正在出现的、批判性的文献缺乏足够的关注。本文根据这些文献提出跟马丁研究相关的问题。本文包括四个部分：1）简要评述马丁的主要结论;2）讨论参与形式变化的推定原因;3）思考更为宽广的政治参与形式;4）思考身份与政治参与之间的关系,那是在更大范围内讨论政治参与的核心问题。     

Policy entrepreneurs and promotion of Australian state knowledge economies

Policy entrepreneurs seek to shift the status quo in given areas of public policy. In doing so, they work closely with others, and their activities call for high levels of political skill. This article examines the actions of policy entrepreneurs who promoted the development of knowledge economies in two Australian states: Queensland and Victoria. During the past two decades, national and sub-national governments around the world have sought to nurture knowledge economies within their borders. Our analysis of knowledge economy advocacy improves understanding of how specific individuals – as strategic team builders – can promote major policy change. This focus on team work and coalition-building as central elements of the process of policy entrepreneurship offers a corrective to some earlier studies that inappropriately conferred lone hero status to policy entrepreneurs.

政策企业家们试图改变公共政策特定领域内的现状。在这个过程中,他们与他人密切合作,他们的活动呼唤高水平的政治技巧。本文考察了政策企业家在澳大利亚的昆士兰和维多利亚两个州促进知识经济的行动。在过去二十年里,世界各地国家以及次国家政府都想在自己的版图内培育知识经济。我们对知识经济促进情况的分析有助于更好地理解何以某些个人如战略团队的建设者们可以促成重要的战略转变。本文聚焦团队工作以及联盟建设,将其视为政策企业家活动的核心因素。这样一种视角是对以往过分强调个人英雄的一种修正。     

The High Court of Australia and political science: A revised historiography and new research agenda

The judiciary has not been the subject of sustained scrutiny within the political science discipline. The High Court plays a central role in the Australian political system, however, and the exercise of judicial power has far reaching consequences for the legislative and executive branches of government. This article presents a historiography of the study of the High Court by political scientists, using Helen Irving's ‘The Constitution and the judiciary’ as a foil. In order to foster cross-disciplinary study and research within the political science discipline, this article concludes by setting out a new research agenda for the future study of the High Court and the law by political scientists. This research agenda provides new insights into (among other topics) how judges exercise power and the changing relationship between the judiciary and the legislative and executive branches.

在政治学里,司法并不一直是审视的对象。不过,高等法院在澳大利亚的政治体系内扮演了关键的角色,司法权力对于立法和行政部门有着深远的影响。本文将政治学者对高等法院的研究做了历史的梳理,采用了海伦厄万的“宪法和司法”理论为参照。本文为将来政治学者研究高等法院及法律提出了新的研究课题,希望以此促进跨学科以及政治学科的研究。这些课题探讨法官如何行使权力,探讨司法与立法以及行政部门之间变动不居的关系。     

Rethinking grassroots campaigners in the digital media: The ‘grassroots orchestra’ in Italy

The diffusion of digital media allows the emergence of new types of relations between grassroots campaigners and organisers. This article presents the results of a comparative qualitative study of two Italian cases of grassroots online participation: a local electoral campaign and a single-issue social movement. The first case is ‘Tell your Milano’, a project that took place during the electoral campaign for Mayor of Milan in the spring of 2011. The second case is the ‘Purple People’ (Popolo Viola), an Italian social movement started in 2009 to demand the resignation of the Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi. The article introduces the concept of a ‘grassroots orchestra’: a grassroots campaign aimed at a short-term objective, coordinated by a non-grassroots political actor and performed by a community sharing a uniform and coherent context.

数字媒体的扩散导致了草根运动家与组织者之间新型关系的出现。本文对两个意大利草根在线参与案例——一为地方选举运动,一为独立议题社会运动——做了对比定性研究。前一个案例是所谓“告诉你一个马力诺”,是2011年春米兰市长选举中的一项活动。另一个“紫色人民”始于2009年,是一个要求贝卢斯科尼总理辞职的社会运动。本文引进了“草根乐队”的概念,意即短期目标的草根运动,由非草根政治主体协调,并由处在同一语境中的一个社群来完成。     

Factors of party system fragmentation: A cross-national study

This article uses a representative sample of elections held in 82 countries of the world (1993–2012) for a statistical analysis of factors that explain the number of parties in national legislative elections. The analysis confirms that the proliferation of candidates and/or parties at the district level contributes to the number of national parties, but the other crucial determinant is party system nationalisation. Several factors that are believed to have an impact on party system fragmentation, such as economic wealth, federalism, linguistic fractionalisation and population size, exert their influence on the number of national parties indirectly, by affecting either the number of district parties or party system nationalisation. At the same time, the significance of many other factors, especially those pertaining to electoral systems and the general political–institutional context, can be properly estimated only if the strongest determinants of system-level fragmentation are controlled for.

本文使用了世界82个国家选举（1993—2012）的代表性样本,对国家立法选举中决定政党数量的因素进行了统计分析。作者认为,地区层次的候选人以及/或政党层出不穷,对全国性政党的数量有所影响,而政党体系的全国化也是一个关键因素。有几个因素估计对政党体系的碎片化有影响,像经济财富、联邦主义、语言及人口规模等等便通过影响地区政党的数量或政党体系的全国化,而对全国性政党的数量产生了间接的影响。与此同时,其他许多因素,尤其是涉及选举制度以及一般政治—体制环境的因素,也可以进行恰当地评估,但要以决定了体制层面碎片化的最强因素作为对照。