Economic conditions and forecasting of Australian elections revisited

In a recent paper in this journal, Jackman and Marks (1994) examine the relationship between economic conditions and election outcomes in Australia using data from 1949 onwards. Their analysis, however, is in my opinion technically inadequate because they seem to have overlooked the possible existence of autocorrelation in their models. In this paper, I present a re‐examination of some of their models which takes autocorrelation into account and which results in improvements in both the fit of the models and of their overall predictive accuracy. Inflation is shown to be a more definite influence on vote shares than are changes in unemployment rates. Also, I show that Jackman and Marks’ conclusion that the 1993 election was an exceptional one in the way in which economic conditions affected aggregate vote shares is incorrect, and that the election result was actually quite well within the normal range in the extent to which it was accurately predicted by economic conditions.     

Forecasting Australian elections: 1993, and all that

The link between economic conditions and election outcomes is a pillar of social science. Voters prefer ‘better times’ to worse and reward or punish incumbents accordingly. We investigate the extent to which this truism holds in the Australian context, with particular emphasis on the 1993 result. While Australian election outcomes are generally not well predicted by prevailing economic conditions, we are impressed by the extent to which the 1993 election outcome is at odds with the state of the economy. In particular, we find Labor performed up to five percentage points better than expected in 1993, making this result one of the most exceptional election results ever observed in Australia. The sizeable electoral penalty typically accompanying large increases in unemployment was effectively nullified in 1993. We accurately predict the 1993 result (ex post) only if unemployment is considered electorally irrelevant. We conclude by suggesting a research agenda for better understanding the link between economic context and election outcomes in the Australian setting.     

The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.

本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票,并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化,以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起,天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票;2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价;他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题,而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象,其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。     

Burma's historic elections

This guest editorial looks at Burma's national elections that have the promise of radically changing Burma's government after over half a century of military rule.     

Brewarrina: An Australian Story

This short paper discusses Barry Morris's account of the ‘riot’ at Brewarrina, New South Wales, in 1987 and its legal aftermath, which continued for some years. An iconic event in Australian race relations, much can be learnt from its various dimensions, a fact that Morris amply demonstrates. Notwithstanding, this discussion questions a related narrative in his book, which interprets capitalism's impact on self‐determination simply in terms of neoliberalism's ‘political effects’. The paper seeks to broaden the discussion of the relations between the state and self‐determination, and between capitalism and race.     

An Australian geography of unhealthy housing

Housing problems, such as affordability, poor quality of condition, or damp, are key determinants of health and wellbeing. Importantly, though, a growing body of research has shown that unhealthy housing is the combined result of multiple housing problems acting together. Although the spatial distribution of discrete housing problems is well established, little is known of Australia's geography of unhealthy housing. We have previously defined and validated an Australian Index of Housing Insults, which captures the multiple ways in which housing adversely influences individual health—including, but not limited to, people's tenure security, affordability, quality, and neighbourhood characteristics. Using the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) dataset, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Australian households, this paper describes Australia's geography of unhealthy housing. The analysis examines the prevalence, characteristics, and distribution of the population who are vulnerable to unhealthy housing. Our findings reveal both a worsening landscape of households at risk because of their accommodation and a changing pattern of unhealthy housing in Australia over time. The paper considers how these findings may impact future policy settings and the potential to improve the health of Australia's population through targeted housing interventions.     

Party Democracy: An Audit of Australian Parties

Competition between candidates representing political parties is usually regarded as a central feature of a liberal democracy. However, where competition between parties fails to provide the public with an effective choice of candidates, the real competition between candidates is displaced to a competition for party endorsement within particular parties. The paper examines the democratic implications of this displacement, and reports the findings of an audit of candidate-selection procedures within the principal Australian parties. The paper argues inter alia that the closed nature of electoral competition and the public status of Australian political parties imply that their internal affairs should be conducted democratically. The paper defines internal party democracy in structural and procedural terms. It applies realistic standards - realistic, because too much internal democracy could render a party ineffective and restrict electoral competition - in conducting an audit of the candidate-selection rules and the composition of candidate-selection voting panels for the principal Australian parties. The paper concludes with a suggestion for policy reform.     

Dendrochronological Flood-frequency Analysis: An Australian Application

Dendrochronological studies have received little attention in Australia and it appears that the methodology is not well understood. This paper describes dendrochronological techniques available in riparian environments and applies them to a small reach of the Hawkesbury River. Results of field investigations into the relationships between flooding and associated tree-ring variability were used to reconstruct partial duration flood-frequency data. The ring-width chronologies of 39 trees were transformed into three indices that made interpretation with respect to flooding possible: (1) a width-index: (2) an annual-sensitivity (AS) index; and (3) a tilting vector. It was assumed that floods would either suppress growth or alter the annual distribution of new wood about the tree bole. Width-indicies and tilting vectors provided the most reliable flooding information. Much reduced growth rates at low elevations supported initial hypotheses and led to the establishment of a relationship between growth-rate and frequency of inundation. The reconstructed flood-frequency curve closely matched the historical data-set although underestimation occured at higher levels due to limited sample size. Analyses indicate that dendrochronological investigations of exotic riparian trees provide detailed flooding information, but techniques may also be used to provide minimum dates of fluvial landforms and date recent channel changes.     

Ballistic Missile Defence: An Australian Perspective

The University of Queensland's School of Political Science and International Studies organised a round table in Canberra on 27 June 2001 that brought together a select group of government policy-makers and academic specialists to discuss the issue of ballistic missile defence (BMD). The round table provided useful insights into Australian thinking on the issue. This report seeks to summarise the essence of those discussions in order to contribute to the broader national debate.     

The municipal elections of March 2001

This article analyses Algeria's ongoing 'civil war' through the lens of contemporary Algerian theatre. Specifically, it examines the relationship between Algeria's unsuccessful transition to democratic, religious pluralism and Alek Baylee Toumi's 1996 play, Madah-Sartre . Among the prominent themes covered are the issues of gender equality as represented in the efforts of Khalida Messaoudi (Toumi's sister) to resist the 1984 Algerian Family Code; the rise of Islamic radicalism; the legacy of the philosophy of Jean-Paul Sartre and Simone de Beauvoir within contemporary Algerian intellectual and political communities; the problem of Islamic and state-sponsored terrorism; and the effects of the Islamic radicals' policies of assassinating Algerian intellectuals on the Algerian community in the diaspora.