A NOTE ON THE FORMULATION OF A FULL-ANALOGUE REGRESSION MODEL OF THE SHIFT-SHARE METHOD

ABSTRACT. This paper presents a full-analogue regression model of the deterministic shift-share method, for analyzing the components of regional employment change. The model is formulated as a constrained least squares regression problem. This leads to a direct determination of estimates for the national, industrial, and regional growth coefficients. The statistical significance of these coefficients and the overall model can then be tested by using standard regression test statistics.     

THE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY ON THE GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL R&D LABORATORIES*

ABSTRACT. The determinants of the geographic distribution of industry R&D activity are examined with particular emphasis on the role of university research as well as state science and technology programs. An analysis of a cross section of metropolitan areas indicates that industry R&D labs are located in areas with state science and technology programs, as well as in areas with higher levels of university research, larger quantities of non-welfare related local government spending, a better educated workforce, and a greater population density.     

THE BUILD-UP AND DURATION OF SUBSIDY-INDUCED EMPLOYMENT EVIDENCE FROM U.K. REGIONAL POLICY*

ABSTRACT. The paper takes microlevel data on U.K. regional policy instruments and other financial assistance payments to industry to examine the time profile of assisted employment up to five years after the date of assistance. The theoretical analysis indicates factors bearing on the employment effect of industrial assistance and highlights the possibly key role played by the firm's access to private funds. The results from the regression analysis indicate that both the build-up and duration of subsidy-induced jobs vary between assistance form and firm, and that assistance is generally ineffective in large firms. Elsewhere, assisted jobs accumulate over a period of three years, but then are lost to policy at high rates.     

FULL EMPLOYMENT AS A POLICY ISSUE

Passage of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 is the most recent step in the development of a national full employment policy. This article traces the origin of the legislative debate over full employment back to the 1940s, the only previous time that Congress gave serious consideration to full employment legislation. It analyzes the conflicting economic and political interests and philosophies that led to the defeat of the Full Employment Bill of 1945 and to passage of weaker legislation, the Employment Act of 1946, which dropped the commitment to full employment. The article then traces the contours of unemployment since World War II: recurrent recessions; significant unemployment between recessions; the unequal distribution of joblessness, hitting hardest at groups such as minorities, women, and youths; and growing urban and regional unemployment. Some of the hidden social, human and economic costs of unemployment are explored. So is the relationship between unemployment and crime, poverty, welfare, the urban crisis and inequality. Full employment reemerged as a major issue in the 1970s because of the impetus from groups whose unemployment problems persist between recessions. Coalitions of these groups pressed for a national policy to secure full employment for all groups. This led to passage of the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. But the controversy over full employment has not ended. Attempts to implement the Act, the article concludes, may heighten underlying controversies over issues such as inflation, wage, price and profit controls, the environment, and job creation and may make full employment one of the leading domestic issues of the 1980s.     

COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.