The direction of migration: a dynamic general equilibrium model

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is developed "to investigate the direction of migration in response to differing demographic and consumption demand behavior, as well as variations in production conditions." The model, which involves a rural sector and an urban sector, incorporates "returns to scale and the natural rate of sectoral population growth as important determinants of the direction of migration, in addition to price and income elasticities, and the sectoral technical change rate with which...previous studies dealt."     

Stable state conditions of population-dependent migration models under a zero natural growth rate

The author "attempts to examine the stable conditions of regional population under a zero natural growth rate in the context of a certain general class of [population-dependent] nonlinear migration models." Theorems regarding the stable state conditions of the migration models are presented. The parameters of the gravity migration model are then estimated empirically using data on Japanese inter-prefectural migration flows in 1966, 1970, and 1975. The possibility of achieving the stable state in Japan is discussed     

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.     

In Search of Causality: A Regional Approach to Urban Growth in Eighteenth-century England

The simple equation of industrialisation and urbanisation contains much truth: recent national surveys confirm that rapid coal-based industrial growth spawned massive urban development in Britain. And yet at the local level a wide diversity of growth experiences reflect a complex and overlapping nexus of growth stimuli which defy attempts at generalisation. In taking a regional perspective, this paper seeks to occupy a productive middle ground in this ongoing debate. Placing urban growth in north-west England into its real economic and geographical context, it recognises the complexities of urban growth but transcends the narrowness of the particular. In so doing, it challenges some of the certainties of industrial urbanisation, emphasising instead the importance of rural industry, urban commercial functions and inter-place linkages. Most fundamentally, it argues for a more nuanced understanding of the geography of causality.     

Geomorphology and the sand and gravel industry of west Central Scotland

The countryside around towns is under increasing pressure for development as a result of the centrifugal forces which have characterised the capitalist urbanisation process in the post‐war era. Conflict between pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests is now endemic in many peri‐urban areas. This paper identifies the principal agents involved in the production of the built environment in the urban fringe and presents a detailed analysis of how divergent interests interact to determine the nature of the fringe environment. The research informs academic debate on rural land conversion and provides guidance for decision‐makers charged with management of the urban fringe.     

Migration at the micro-scale: intra-parochial movements in rural Normandy, 1946-54

"Most working definitions of migration accept that only movements across local authority boundaries can normally be dealt with: by the use of questionnaire surveys certain urban studies have examined intra-unit moves but few non-urban migration studies have been able to penetrate below the level of local authority boundaries. In this paper use is made of various unpublished documents available in connection with population censuses in France from which it is possible to examine migration within rural communes for the intercensal period from 1946 to 1954. Twelve communes were investigated and the emerging picture of intra-parochial migrants have been compared with that of inter-parochial movers." The author notes "differences in age-structure between the two groups. Net movement takes place up the settlement hierarchy within each 'commune', whilst the reasons for movement show that between village-centres and outlying settlements there are certain social cleavages."     

Regional labor markets and the household migration decision

"The current work extends the modeling of the household migration decision to take into account location-specific influences and relates these to regional wage differentials. This allows for more complete analysis of real wage gains or losses associated with migration and inferences regarding the nature of equilibrium or disequilibrium wage differentials between regions." Data are from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the period 1976-1978. "The results indicate systematic and often substantial influences of household location on the nominal wage and on both job and residence mobility. Based on these findings, comparisons of wage growth patterns are made for those changing jobs and region of residence status. Although compared to other households the wage growth of these migrants is on average lower before migration and higher after migration, the analysis provides no support for arguments that nominal regional wage differentials reflect systematic ordering of real wage differentials. This finding suggests that real wage gains are closely tied to the interregional migration decision but are not related to regional nominal wage differentials in a simple fashion."     

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."     

Urban concentration and rural growth: a two-sector analysis

"This paper examines the mechanism and extent of urban concentration using a two-sector growth model. The cause of urbanization is sought in the existence of urban scale economies. Assuming that temporary production decisions are concerned with optimal labor inputs and that profit incomes are reinvested according to relative profitability, the model shows persistent tendency for urban concentration and the transition of the economy from unlimited to limited labor supply. A simple example suggests that urban concentration is more likely than rural expansion with urban contraction."     

By Any Means Necessary: Urban Regeneration and the “State of Exception” in Glasgow's Commonwealth Games 2014

When compulsory purchase for urban regeneration is combined with a sporting mega‐event, we have an archetypal example of what Giorgio Agamben called the “state of exception”. Through a study of compulsory purchase orders (CPOs) on the site of the Athletes' Village for Glasgow's 2014 Commonwealth Games, we expose CPOs as a classed tool mobilised to violently displace working class neighbourhoods. In doing so, we show how a fictionalised mantra of “necessity” combines neoliberal growth logics with their obscene underside—a stigmatisation logic that demonises poor urban neighbourhoods. CPOs can be used progressively, for example to abrogate the power of slum landlords for social democratic ends, yet with the increasing urbanisation of capital they more often target marginalised neighbourhoods in the pursuit of land and property valorisation. The growing use of CPOs as an exceptional measure in urbanisation, we argue, requires urgent attention in urban political struggles and policy practice.     

中国的和平崛起与对外移民

在中国和世界移民史的框架内,从中国的人口政策、经济发展战略、外资的引进和城市化与就业政策等角度,对中外社会经济性质及移民政策进行比较分析。认为,中国的人口政策和经济发展战略保持了极低的对外移民率;随着中国的和平崛起,未来中国国际移民与人口比例将比当时欧洲崛起时低得多、“移民峰”的时段也将比欧洲当年的时段短得多。     

Time,hedonic migration,and household production

"A hedonic migration model is developed where regional amenities are viewed as influencing household production within the framework of the new demand theory. The inputs to household production are goods, time and housing. It is shown that economic growth in the economy as a whole will increase the relative attractiveness of regions that are relatively time-saving, in the sense that they have a lower time elasticity of household production. Hence, migration will flow into time saving regions and housing costs in those regions will rise as real GDP grows." The implied geographical focus is on the United States.     

Dynamics of Land Surface Temperature in Response to Land‐Use/Cover Change

In this study, we employed Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing techniques to investigate the impact of land‐use/cover change on land surface temperature (LST) in a rapidly urbanisation city, Kunming in south‐west China. Spatial patterns of LST and land use for 1992 and 2006 were derived from Landsat images to examine how LST responded to urban growth. Remote sensing indices were used to quantify land‐use types and employed as explanatory variables in LST modelling. The geographically weighted regression (GWR), a location dependent model, was performed to explore the influences of the spatially varied land‐use conditions on the LST patterns. Results revealed that rapid urbanisation in Kunming altered the local thermal environment, particularly in increasing the LST in the zone surrounding the urban core. Remote sensing indices demonstrated that water and vegetation played an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, while built‐up and barren land accounted for the increase in LST. The GWR improved the goodness‐of‐fit for LST modelling and provided insights into the spatially varied relationship between LST and land‐use conditions.     

Inter-regional migration and social change: a study of South East England based upon data from the Longitudinal Study

"Data from the [Office of Population Censuses and Surveys] Longitudinal Study are used to trace the social class effects of migration between the South East region and the rest of England and Wales in the period 1971-81. The analysis begins with the migration streams into and out of the South East of those people who were in the labour market (including the unemployed) at both census dates. The paper then proceeds to an analysis of the migration streams of those who entered or left the labour market between 1971 and 1981. Finally, the effects of the migration streams on the social class composition of both the South East and the rest of England and Wales are summarised. The results are interpreted in the light of debates about change in the British urban and regional system."     

Net migration estimation in an extended,multiregional gravity model

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.     

The Impact of Urbanisation on the Bed Sediments of South Creek,New South Wales

The textural and geochemical characteristics of the bed sediments in South Creek are examined. The bed substratum in the urbanised reaches differs from that of the rural reaches, in terms of the volume and size of the fine matrix sediment and the concentration of heavy metals. The impact of urbanisation on the river-bed sediment is variable, with less matrix than ‘expected’ within the substratum of the urban reach and more than ‘expected’ in the below urban reach. The urban matrix sediment is also significantly finer in comparison to the rural reach matrix sediment. Heavy metal concentrations within the urbanised matrix sediment are up to 800 times greater than background levels and are considered to be indicative of extreme contamination despite only SO years of urbanisation.     

Any Labour Geographies in Urban Theory? Workers Meet Lefebvre and Harvey (Yet Again)

This paper examines the urban theory of Henri Lefebvre and David Harvey to construct an urban perspective on labour geographies. Lefebvre understood work in a work–nonwork continuum beyond binarism, and Lefebvre and Harvey hailed the outpouring of working-class agency from cities. However, they may have obscured the role of labour movements in urbanisation when identifying the living-place (such as streets, neighbourhoods, or housing) as the primary seat of urban agency. Learning from labour geographers in the 1990s, I query this ambiguity to enhance the urban theory of Lefebvre and Harvey, conceive of the urban scale as the site of unfinished industrial/urban dialectics, and conceptualise labour agency as a producer of transformative continua in urbanisation. Interpreting Toyota’s factories as rescaled pivots of industrial urbanisation, I explore how Japanese labour movements challenged just-in-time production, its union form, and its work/nonwork divides, producing new urbanising continua—even planetary ones—between different transformative agencies.     

A demographic analysis of the population growth of states, 1950-1980

Factors affecting regional differences in population growth in the United States are explored. "In this study, we estimated the contributions of births, deaths, and migration to changes in population size between 1950 and 1980 for the 48 contiguous states in the United States. We found that population momentum (i.e., the growth that would occur in a closed population if fertility and mortality rates remained constant) had the largest effect on population growth in most states, but that differences in net migration were the major cause of state-to-state differences in growth rates. We also found that net migration has been gaining in importance compared to natural increase as a component of population growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming decades." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 429).     

Serial correlation in multiregional migration models

"In this paper, we outline the specification and estimation of a time series of multiregional net-migration equations subject to first-order serial correlation. We show that the necessary nonstochastic adding-up constraint, which requires that net migration in the system sum to zero, imposes restrictions on the serial-correlation coefficients. We estimate equations under these restrictions using data for the ten Canadian provinces for the period 1962-1985. The results confirm the significance of the serial-correlation coefficient and, hence, the importance of incorporating this correction in future time-series models of multiregional migration."     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.