The assumption of equilibrium in models of migration

In recent articles Evans (1990) and Harrigan and McGregor (1993) (hereafter HM) scrutinized the equilibrium model of migration presented in a 1989 paper by Schachter and Althaus. This model used standard microeconomics to analyze gross interregional migration flows based on the assumption that gross flows are in approximate equilibrium. HM criticized the model as theoretically untenable, while Evans summoned empirical as well as theoretical objections. HM claimed that equilibrium of gross migration flows could be ruled out on theoretical grounds. They argued that the absence of net migration requires that either all regions have equal populations or that unsustainable regional migration propensities must obtain. In fact some moves are inter- and other are intraregional. It does not follow, however, that the number of interregional migrants will be larger for the more populous region. Alternatively, a country could be divided into a large number of small regions that have equal populations. With uniform propensities to move, each of these analytical regions would experience in equilibrium zero net migration. Hence, the condition that net migration equal zero is entirely consistent with unequal distributions of population across regions. The criticisms of Evans were based both on flawed reasoning and on misinterpretation of the results of a number of econometric studies. His reasoning assumed that the existence of demand shifts as found by Goldfarb and Yezer (1987) and Topel (1986) invalidated the equilibrium model. The equilibrium never really obtains exactly, but economic modeling of migration properly begins with a simple equilibrium model of the system. A careful reading of the papers Evans cited in support of his position showed that in fact they affirmed rather than denied the appropriateness of equilibrium modeling. Zero net migration together with nonzero gross migration are not theoretically incompatible with regional heterogeneity of population, wages, or amenities.     

Time-series modeling of gross migration and dynamic equilibrium

Firstly, the high association between in- and out-migration is investigated in a time-series context and modeled according to three categories: 1) job transfer, 2) job search and marriage, and 3) return migration. Under certain coditions it is shown that aggregation of these migrations yields a bivariate time-series model having feedbacks in both directions. Secondly, the recent phenomenon of sharp changes in net migration seems to be discontinuous and, hence, catastrophic modeling [Casetti (1981) may be appropriate. However, this paper considers gross migration between cores (metropolitan areas) and peripheries (rest of the nation) for which a continuous function seems adequate. This is done by introducing a multivariate time-series model. This model is empirically supported, especially in Japan, divided into 32 regions, by t-tests and Durbin-Watson ratios, although it excludes economic variables such as employment growth and wage differentials. This may imply that the recent dispersal from core to peripheral regions could be explained primarily by feedback from return migrants. Finallym, provided future streams of gross migration follow the past trends given by simultaneous equation estimates, in-migration and out-migration would approach a stable state in most regions. Irrespective of random shocks in the future, in- and out-migration would tend to approach a stable equilibrium. According to the estimation of the stable states, the 45 core regions in the US would continue to lose population through net outflows while those in Japan would continue to gain. The present model may thus be valid only for short-term forecasts. By introducing feedback and lag structures, however, it does offer one explanation for the recent population turnaround.     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

AMENITIES VERSUS LABOR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES: CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL DISTANCE TO MOVE*

ABSTRACT. A recent debate in the regional economics literature has focused attention on the motivation behind an individual's decision to migrate. Human-capital migration models emphasize labor market disequilibria whereas alternative (hedonic) migration models stress households’altered demand for nontraded goods. In this paper, we test the relative importance of these two possible motivations for moving between metropolitan areas. We use an intercity hedonic model to decompose wages into equilibrium and disequilibrium components. We then compare the separate influences of amenities and the disequilibrium component of wages on the distance moved between two metropolitan areas. Our findings indicate that both economic factors and amenity differentials are significant factors in explaining regional migration.     

The role of equilibrium and disequilibrium in modeling regional growth and decline: a critical reassessment

ABSTRACT. The assumption of interregional equilibrium in migration research has recently been attacked. At issue is the motivation for on-going migration if rents and wags accurately compensate for spatial amenity variations; but if rents and wages fail to accurately compensate potential migrants, then amenity valuations must be flawed. We here show that arguments supporting substantial disequilibrium in the US. economy are unconvincing. The substantive issues are then clarified by a model which allows for both equilibrium and disequilibrium migration. We conclude that intertemporally systematic migration stems predominantly from equilibrium forces.     

VALUING AMENITIES AND DISAMENITIES OF URBAN SCALE: CAN BIGGER BE BETTER?*

ABSTRACT. Considerable effort has been devoted within the recent literature to the valuation of urban amenities and disamenities, as well as to econometric procedures required for the estimation of their implicit market “prices.” This study questions the equilibrium conditions invoked within this literature to derive estimates of marginal willingness to pay, conditions premised upon “perfect” labor mobility among cities. It is shown that such assumptions need not be invoked if one considers the amenity price-mobility relationship directly. This is accomplished by appending a binary migration model to a first-stage wage equation, a procrdure that provides estimates of willingness to pay that can diverge from market-determined implicit prices. Comparison of such values yields important information on the adequacy of market compensation for disamenities (amenities) throughout metropolitan areas.     

An equilibrium model of gross migration

ABSTRACT The paper presents and tests a new model of migration which differs significantly from the conventional disequilibrium approach. We show that variations in rates of gross migration across regions are equilibrium responses to variations in levels of amenities, governmental policies, etc. The model is tested using data on the gross migration of whites, 1975-80, together with amenities such as climate and with economic variables such as government services, taxes and unionization. Empirical results suggest that the equilibrium model is more consistent with actual migration patterns than is the conventional disequilibrium approach. We estimate compensating differentials and migration elasticities for these variables.     

Determinants of Net Migration to Rural Areas,and the Impacts of Migration on Rural Labour Markets and Self-Employment in Rural Sweden

Abstract

Across most of Europe, the countryside seems to show a polarized development in which large districts are depopulating, while certain areas, mainly around big- and mid-sized cities, are increasing in population. The latter development is often described in concepts of “rural gentrification” and “rurbanization”, symbolizing a transformation of rural communities to communities with urban values and lifestyles. Most studies of the effects of these processes have focused on social and cultural consequences, as e.g. the displacements of lower-income households with higher-income residents and of rural culture and values with urban ones. This paper examines the phenomenon from another perspective, namely the effects of the “rurbanization” processes on countryside's labour markets and economic life. This paper aims at analysing the determinants of net migration to rural areas in general and to different types of regions, and the impacts of in-migration on rural labour markets, self-employment and other socio-economic conditions in Sweden for the period of 2003–2005. We find that net migration into rural areas increases with the size of adjacent local and regional centres, whereas net migration decreases with the average commuting distance of workers in the rural areas. When comparing in-migrants to rural areas with rural area stayers, our results indicate that the former has lower incomes, a lower employment ratio and a lower degree of entrepreneurial activities. These differences could—at least partly—be explained by the fact that rural area stayers were on average 6 years older than rural area in-migrants, i.e. the two groups were in different stages of their life cycles.     

The Effect of Hedonic Migration Decisions and Region-Specific Amenities on Industrial Location: Could Silicon Valley Be in South Dakota?

This paper analyzes the effect of hedonic migration decisions and regional amenities on industrial location. Labor-intensive firms bifurcate into companies that follow the workers completely to the most attractive places, and companies which engage in a trade-off between "following" and "compensation for disamenities." In the latter case, regional amenities induce three distinct location patterns: (a) a concentration of firms where the level of amenities is rapidly changing, (b) a gradual change of industrial composition at intermediate locations, and (c) a concentration of specific industries at the periphery of high-amenity areas. These patterns explain some of the controversial empirical findings about regional amenities and migration.     

人口流动对边境地区人口安全的影响及机制分析

本文关注我国边境人口变动和人口流动状况,着重分析了人口流动对边境人口安全的影响机制,并探讨了边境人口流动的影响因素。研究发现,①边境县域人口总体规模稳中略降,人口增速和增量持续减少;②人口净流出已逐步成为边境人口变动主要因素;③边境人口变动与流动影响程度有明显区域差异。外流风险型地区已出现明显的人口负增长和外流,人口安全缺乏数量和质量保障;相对稳定型地区人口保持低速增长,但其人口净流出水平正不断提高,有向外流风险型转变的趋势;相对封闭增长型地区人口增长较快,但流动性较弱。各类边境地区人口流出流入呈现不同特征,并受到经济、教育、城镇化、民族、政策等不同因素影响。     

DO LOCAL AMENITIES AFFECT THE APPEAL OF REGIONS IN EUROPE FOR MIGRANTS?*

ABSTRACT This paper delves into the factors, which determine the attractiveness of regions in Europe for migrants. Contrary to the literature on the United States, which has increasingly focused on the role of amenities, existing research in Europe tends to highlight the predominance of economic conditions as the main drivers of migration. Differentiating between economic, sociodemographic and amenity‐related territorial features, we examine the appeal of various regional characteristics for migrants by analyzing net migration data for 133 European regions between 1990 and 2006. Our results show that, in addition to economic, human capital‐related and demographic aspects, network effects and—in contrast to existing literature—different types of regional amenities exert an important influence on the relative attractiveness of sub‐national territories across the European Union. Our findings therefore indicate that locational choices in Europe may be much more similar to place‐based preferences in the United States than originally thought.     

LOCATION‐SPECIFIC HUMAN CAPITAL,LOCATION CHOICE AND AMENITY DEMAND*

ABSTRACT The role of amenities in the flow of migrants has long been a subject of debate. This paper advances an original model of amenities that work through household production instead of directly through utility. Area characteristics (amenities) affect household production, causing certain kinds of human capital investments to be rewarded more than others. Area heterogeneity thus makes such investments location‐specific. This specificity—along with a period of exogenous location—increases the opportunity costs of moving, diminishes migration flows between dissimilar locations and increases valuation of amenities that were present in the originating area. These theoretical results emphasize people's sorting across areas and thus differ from the results of the standard model of compensating differentials. Empirical tests of the model's predictions using NLSY79 data show that childhood investments affect migration flows in the way proposed by the model.     

A Note on the Benefits to Current Residents of State Employment Growth: Is There an Industry Mix Effect on Migration?

Although there is evidence that regional employment growth benefits current residents, an unexplored aspect of this relationship is the industry composition of the growth. Using 1981–1991 migration data for the 48 contiguous U.S. states, this paper examines whether the industry mix of employment growth matters for migration. We find that state employment growth that results from having a larger share of nationally fast-growing industries leads to less net in-migration compared to growth that results from each industry in the state growing faster than its national average. Therefore, state employment growth that is attributable to its mix of industries yields greater benefits for current state residents.     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

The Problems of Adjusting to Slow Growth in the Niagara Region of Ontario

During the 1970s it became clear that earlier forecasts of population increase and urban expansion in the Niagara region were too great. There has been a steady decline in the national birth rate since the 1950s and a decline locally in the rate of net in-migration. Moreover, a worsening economic climate, increasing development costs, and greater planning restrictions have led to a decline in the rate of land conversion from rural to urban uses. These changing circumstances afford an opportunity to plan for more compact urban areas and thus protect the area's valuable agricultural land. However, attempts to achieve these ends have been constantly frustrated by a regional and local planning process which has been loath to recognize such a conservationist cause or the need to plan for slower growth. In this report I will review three issues: the changing trends in future urban growth in the Niagara region; the regional plan and the designation of future urban areas; and the problems that have contributed to conflict and delay in approving that plan.     

WAGES,RENTS, UNEMPLOYMENT,AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE: A CONSISTENT THEORY‐BASED MEASURE

Combining a spatial equilibrium model with a search‐matching unemployment model, this paper analyzes the willingness to pay for regional amenities and the regional quality of life when wages, rents, and unemployment risk compensate for local amenities and disamenities. The results are compared with those obtained from the Rosen‐Roback approach. We demonstrate that the traditional approach gives too much weight to the wage differential if search frictions are significant. Furthermore, the paper confirms that the wage curve is negatively sloped for quasi‐linear utility. Specifically, the wage rate increases and the unemployment rate decreases in response to an increase in the amenity level if the amenity is marginally more beneficial to producers than to consumers.     

The development of geographical differences in education levels within the Swedish tourism industry

ABSTRACT

The nexus of workforce and destination development is a largely uncharted area within tourism research. The local human capital has above all been in focus when underlining tourism's potential to create employment even for the inexperienced and less educated. However, a discordant strand of theory holds the low levels of qualified knowledge within the industry responsible for absent destination development in areas struggling to develop competitive advantages. Additionally, the in-migration of a skilled workforce may be hampered by a lack of amenities attracting permanent residents. In order to explore whether the tourism sector is characterized by a less educated share of the workforce, a study was performed using micro-level data on the full working population of Sweden during the years 2000–2010. The workforce in tourism was compared to the total and two other low-skill sectors, and the results show that the educational aspects within tourism are more related to geography than economic sectors. Contrary to general presumptions, the workforce within the tourism sector has a higher level of formal education than the other selected sectors in regions with generally low educational levels. The implication is thus that strategies aimed at creating employment for the least educated in rural areas need to be reconsidered, and not unconditionally target the tourism sector. Above all, tourism development needs to be based on assessments of local preconditions rather than a generalized image.     

INTERPREFECTURAL MIGRATION AND ITS EFFECTS ON PREFECTURAL POPULATIONS IN JAPAN: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE 1980 CENSUS

This paper analyses the 1979-80 migration data of the 1980 Japanese census, the emphasis being on the overall and age-specific redistributional potentials of inter-prefectural migration. The main findings are as follows. First, even after the onset of counterurbanization, when the overall redistributional potential of migration in Japan was substantially weakened, the interprefectural variation in population growth depended more strongly on inmigration, outmigration, and net migration than on birth, death, and natural growth. Second, the migration process in Japan shared several general properties with those in other developed countries, including the fact that out- and inmigration rates were positively correlated, and that the variation in net migration rate depended much more strongly on in-migration than on outmigration. Third, the redistributional potential of the migration of the 15–19 age group was strongest and was spatially least similar to those of most other age groups. Fourth, there were distinct age patterns in net migration rate among four types of prefectures: (1) metropolitan core, (2) suburban, (3) regional growth pole, and (4) peripheral rural, the contrast being sharpest between the first and the last type. Finally, while the phenomenon of 'retirement migration' was still missing in Japan, the strong age-selectivity in migration continued to distort the age compositions of prefectural populations so that the burden of the elderly is relatively severe in peripheral rural prefectures.