ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS IN LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. METROPOLITAN REGIONS

ABSTRACT.  This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks.     

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,KNOWLEDGE FLOWS,AND INNOVATION IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. Innovation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in explaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed‐effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity.     

ON THE STABILITY OF HOUSING SECTOR INTERACTION: EVIDENCE FROM 42 METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. Residential vacancy chain models based on White's (1971) application of Markov chain theory are used to simulate flows of housing vacancies through a set of interdependent housing market sectors. Measures of housing sector interaction are derived from such models. Our purpose here is to address the issue of time stationarity raised by their use. U.S. census data are available to calibrate such models at two, and sometimes three, points in time. Data from 42 different SMSAs are used to generate 56 cross-temporal comparisons with interobservation periods ranging from three to eight years. Stability of interaction is addressed from two perspectives–the sectoral perspective and the areawide perspective. Results are mixed and depend upon which measure of interaction is used, which perspective is addressed, and the duration of the interobservation period. However, within limits, findings support continued use of vacancy chain models.     

SPREAD AND BACKWASH EFFECTS FOR NONMETROPOLITAN COMMUNITIES IN THE U.S.

Few studies empirically estimate the effects of metropolitan growth on nonmetropolitan communities at a national scale. This paper estimates the growth effects of 276 MSAs on population in 1,988 nonmetropolitan communities in the United States from 2000 to 2007. We estimate the distance for growth spillovers from MSAs to nonmetropolitan communities and test the assumption that a single MSA influences growth. We compare three methods of weighting cities’ influence: nearest city only, inverse‐distance, and relative commuting flow to multiple cities. We find the inverse‐distance approach provides slightly more reliable and theoretically supportable results than the traditional nearest city approach.     

THE EFFECT OF LAND‐USE CONTROLS ON THE SPATIAL SIZE OF U.S. URBANIZED AREAS*

ABSTRACT On a sample of U.S. urbanized areas in 2000, we test theoretical hypotheses of the effect of land‐use controls on the spatial size of urban areas. We find that minimum lot‐size zoning and maximum FAR restrictions expand the urban area, while maximum lot‐size zoning, urban growth boundaries, minimum square footage limits, maximum building permit restrictions, minimum person per room controls, and impact fees contract the urban area. All of these findings are consistent with theoretical predictions although the effect of urban growth boundaries and minimum square footage limits are not statistically significant.     

美国对以色列的政策及美以关系的发展（1948-1958）

以色列是在美国的支持下建立的。战后,美国通过插手巴勒斯坦事务,逐步从英国手中夺取处理该地区事务的主动权。在以色列建国伊始,美国给予这一新生国家巨大的帮助。但在战略上,美国并未将以色列视作特别重点考虑对象。在第二次中东战争结束以后,以色列开始受到特别关注,其在美中东战略中的地位和作用日渐突出。本文利用美国解密的档案材料及国内外学者的有关著述,对以建国初期(1948至1958年)美国对以色列的策略及美以关系的发展进行梳理与分析,希望有助于深刻理解美以特殊战略关系的形成及美以关系发展的现状。     

PLANNING: LESSONS FROM THE U.S.S.R.

Evaluation of the success of a plan requires the collection of statistics and indicators for monitoring purposes. In the health care field, outcomes are notoriously difficult to measure. To the extent that a successful program of prevention should result in providing less of a service, a conflict exists between planning and prevention: in the absence of outcome measures, success will be indistinguishable from failure, as in both cases, planned targets would not be met. To avoid this dilemma, an indicator-oriented planning system would be predicted to operationalize prevention in countable terms requiring increased inputs, or increased numbers of processes, regardless of the payoffs in health benefits. Screening, check-ups, and one-on-one contacts with health professionals would be emphasized at the expense of group-oriented activities or societal changes. Planning can thus have counter-productive policy implications. This theory is illustrated by reference to the current health care system in the U.S.S.R., including their anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism programmes.