A DYNAMIC INTRSECTORAL,MODEL OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH*

ABSTRACT. The dynamic relationship between sectoral value added and regional economic growth is analyzed using a stochastic intersectoral model estimated by ordinary least squares and linear systems techniques. A state-space portion of the model identifies the time element of sedoral value added. Dynamic multipliers, tracing the temporal path of regional growth, are calculated for the state of Georgia over the period 1963–1986. This application shows that the impacts of sectoral shocks can follow cyclical as well as monotonic patterns and that the direction and magnitude of the impact may change over time.     

Employment growth and regional development: industrial change and contextual differences between Denmark and Sweden

This paper explores the potential drivers behind uneven regional development in the context of employment growth in Denmark and Sweden. In particular, we are interested in the roles of urbanization, industrial change and the rise of the new economy as manifested in the growth of the two economies in 2002–2007. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to analyse the impact of a number of key industrial sectors on regional employment growth in the two countries. The empirical analysis is based on longitudinal matched employer–employee data retrieved from official registers in each economy from 2002 to 2007, a period of strong national growth following the crisis of early 2000. Our findings indicate that the two economies follow a similar pattern in addressing total employment growth; but looking at changes in employment levels across the national borders of these two relatively similar open economies, we find that, although in general these economies react relatively similarly to changes, embarking on a narrower analysis of the individual sectors reveals marked national differences. This indicates that context matters in the analysis of regional economic dynamics in terms of structure, system and policy.     

Urban,Suburban, and Exurban Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West: Evidence from Regional Adjustment Models*

Abstract. This article adapts a regional adjustment model to examine land use change in the Rocky Mountain West region of the United States. Three interrelated questions motivate the research. How does the proliferation of urban, suburban, and exurban sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West relate to the population and employment growth process? Are population and employment endogenously determined there? And what does this imply for the sustainability of economic development in the region? Through a series of regional adjustment models, the empirical analysis links population and employment growth in the Rocky Mountain West to explicit spatial outcomes and delivers substantive evidence of endogeneity between the two. The results suggest that the long‐term prosperity of the region depends on the preservation of the high quality of life it offers, and that greater intergovernmental coordination, careful infrastructure planning, and attention to the character of its economic structure may help to accomplish this. Future research should focus on looking deeper into certain explanatory variables used in this analysis and on developing a better picture of what the spatial equilibrium that regional adjustment models emulate may look like.     

Economic Diversity and Regional Socioeconomic Performance: An Empirical Analysis of the Western Australian Grain Belt

One of the truisms ingrained in much regional development policy and practice is the claimed importance of economic diversity in contributing to socio-economic stability and well-being. There is, however, very little recent research examining this contention in the context of rural Australia. This paper examines the extent to which economic diversity affects the socio-economic performance of local areas in the Western Australian grain belt. The results indicate that employment diversity across industry sectors is clearly associated with population growth, labour force expansion, labour force participation, and rising median incomes. However, the paper also argues that economic diversity is not necessarily the cause of these changes, but simply one, albeit important, component of the dynamics of regional change.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

An Empirical Evaluation of Profit Cycle Theory

This study tests key hypotheses of Markusen's profit cycle theory of regional growth by examining the recent time path of industrial development for eight U.S. sectors. The analysis uses annual data for 1954–1990 and incorporates the influence of national economic trends and random effects in identifying stages of the profit cycle. Based upon those stages, the hypothesized changes in the behavior of other aspects of the growth cycle are assessed in simple statistical models. The results of the empirical tests are mixed. Employment follows a general pattern of early rapid growth followed by slow growth and eventually decline, but the pattern is not symmetric. The value-added curves are similarly asymmetric, and some even contradict the expected monotonicity of the growth and decline process. The lack of spatial dispersion is probably the most striking result of the study. The stability over time of the employment percentage in top states is inconsistent with the spatial dispersion implications of the profit cycle model.     

Child and Adolescent Obesity and Employment Sector in Urban China

Despite its importance as a part of the economic reform in China, sectoral employment has been overlooked as a potential determinant of child and adolescent obesity (CAO). Using large-scale longitudinal data from surveys conducted from 1989 to 2006, this paper examines the relationship between the sector in which a parent is employed and CAO, with the sector being based on ownership and categorised as either state or non-state. Analyses of over 1700 children and adolescents show that children and adolescents whose parents work in the state sector are less likely to be obese. Patterns of sectoral employment's effect are robust across time periods, in fixed-effects models, and across multiple measures of obesity. Additionally, the paper shows that socioeconomic characteristics of the parent, such as income, education, and occupation, typically thought to be important predictors of CAO, are not as important when the parental working sector is included in the models.     

Spatial planning in transition in Greece: a critical overview

Greece is a country undergoing major changes in its course towards recovering from the recession and meeting the desirable economic standards. Over the past years, a series of legislative acts have reformed not only the sectoral policies and guidelines for the development of the main economic sectors of the country, but also the spatial planning policy and system, which in the period of just two years (between 2014 and 2016) underwent a double reform (Laws 4269 and 4447). Planning procedures became more ‘favourable’ to investments and the market’s needs. However, despite this early shift towards a more flexible and neoliberal approach, competitiveness and economic growth have not yet been achieved, whilst spatial planning is still ‘on hold’, leading to further entrepreneurial hesitancy and to a further delay in meeting the State’s requisite economic goals. The paper aims to contribute to the ongoing discussion regarding the future of spatial planning in Greece, in view of achieving economic stability and prosperity. The paper concludes that a suitable spatial planning model for Greece should prioritize public interest and territorial justice, in a way that it will not asphyxiate or discourage private sector initiatives that are so needed for the economic recovery.     

Mixed-use ‘regeneration’ of employment land in the post-industrial city: challenges and realities in London

This article explores the relationships between land-use planning, property and economic development, with a focus on the changing attitudes towards employment land in post-industrial cities. Drawing on case study data from two London local authorities, it finds that planning authorities are moving away from protecting employment land to actively promoting the mixed-use redevelopment of employment sites, even when there are thriving businesses on these sites and a shortage of supply of employment premises and land, relative to demand. We examine the drivers for changing policy including the national and regional policy contexts, housing targets, the influence of austerity measures, rise of Neighbourhood Planning and changing conceptions of regeneration and the role of housing therein. The article highlights the complex task faced by local planners and the tensions involved in simultaneously finding sites for housing, fostering economic development and promoting mixed-use redevelopment in planning policy and decisions. We find that changes in policy are fuelling speculation for housing development on sites occupied by viable businesses, supporting rather than responding to deindustrialization. This is leading to a gap between aspirations for delivering mixed-use environments on hitherto employment sites and realities on the ground.     

The Location of Services in the Urban Hierarchy and the Regions of the United States

We use regression and factor analyses to explain intermetropolitan variation in the proportion of jobs in disaggregated service sectors in American metropolitan areas. Central place theory postulates of centrally located establishments serving a surrounding complementary region partially explain the positive relationship between metropolitan size and the proportion of jobs in an area in services. Regional variation in demand following several decades of substantial shifts in population and economic output is an additional influence. Intermetropolitan clustering of service sectors is also occurring. A factor analysis of employment proportions in twenty-two disaggregate service sectors identified five intersectoral service clusters. The factor analysis accounted for substantially more variance than the regression equations. We interpret this result as evidence of the emergence of service-based spatial industrial complexes. We argue that agglomeration of information-intensive intermediate services is driven by an attraction to labor markets endowed with pools of skilled professionals who can flexibly apply their talents in a variety of sectors. Unusual demographic characteristics of some metropolitan areas probably explain clusters of final demand services.     

POPULATION GEOGRAPHY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING

Population geographers are urged to get involved in the program of socio-economic planning that is expected to supplement the present economic planning process in the Soviet Union. So far socio-economic plans have been drawn up only for a few large cities like Moscow, Leningrad and Sverdlovsk. In general, there is a need for integrating the social planning process with purely economic planning, and to supplement the present sectoral planning system with an integrated system of spatial planning entities. At the present time, city and regional plans are derived by simply collating sectoral data at the city and regional level rather than by a separate integrated spatial planning procedure. A system of intra-oblast regions, or okrugs, numbering perhaps 500 or more, is recommended as a new level suitable both for government administration and for socio-economic planning.     

城市和区域产业发展分析的增长商测度

区域产业分析的常用测度之一是区位商,该测度用于一个地理单元（如北京市）中某种行业在全部行业中的比重与特定区域（如全中国）的同种行业比重做比较。然而,区位商是一个静态概念,不能反映一种行业的相对增长幅度或者变化速度。基于数学中"商"的概念和理论地理学中测度构造的一般方法,本文定义了一个行业增长商测度,用于比较一个子区域中某种行业的增长幅度与特定地理区域中同一行业增长幅度,数值越大表明一个子区域的某种行业相对于特定区域的同种行业的增速越快、增幅越大。进一步地,定义了一个区域增长商,用于比较某种行业的相对增幅与全部行业的平均增幅,数值越大表明某种行业在全部行业中的增速越快。采用信阳实例说明了增长商分析的应用方法。作为参照,定义、对比并讨论了区位熵和增长熵测度。增长商是一个动态的测度,简明易懂,在区域产业分析中可以与区位商功能互补,在未来的主导产业选择中可能发挥一定作用。     

INTRA-REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN LUXEMBOURG (1994–2005)

The specialization of city-centres towards more advanced service activities has mostly been studied in the largest city-regions, the case of smaller urban centres being less well documented. In that context, the objective of this article is to analyse the role of sectoral and regional factors in employment growth in Luxembourg between 1994 and 2005. Using statistical data from the Luxembourg General Inspection of Social Security, this contribution distinguishes 12 categories of manufacturing industries and services according to an OECD-Eurostat knowledge-based classification. Five intra-regional areas are distinguished based on morphological and functional criteria in the Luxembourg Metropolitan Area. Using several indexes, this article first analyses the sectoral specialization and geographical concentration of employment. A model of intra-regional employment growth, initially developed by Marimon and Zilibotti and applied at the European level, is then shown to account for 40 per cent of employment growth. An estimation of the contributions of sectoral and geographical factors highlights the primacy of the latter over the former. Finally, the construction of virtual economies confirms the City's overall lower performance as compared to its close periphery. Results underscore a process of functional integration in the Luxembourg metropolitan area: as the core of the city undergoes a specialization process, the urban area benefits from a relocation of activities less sensitive to distance and transaction costs, while the periphery becomes increasingly diversified, notably in the South where traditional industrial activities are being replaced by service activities. These results suggest that the evolution pattern of employment growth in Luxembourg is very similar to that of some larger metropolitan centres, owing to its exceptional financial service activities.     

Capital Accumulation,Economic Restructuring,and Nonequilibrium Regional Growth Dynamics

Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in explaining the significance and persistence of regional growth differentials. Much of the debate in contemporary political economy has focussed on the relative importance of either “weak” or “strong” competition in regulating movements in prices, profits, and investments both within and between economic sectors and regions. However, little attention has been directed toward developing theoretical models that are capable of evaluating the relative importance of (non) equilibrating forces in determining the long-run accumulation dynamics of capitalist space economies. In this paper, I develop an approach to modeling regional growth that simultaneously theorizes the link between processes of economic restructuring and regional capital accumulation. I examine the stability properties of this model in order to evaluate the theoretical significance of both equilibrating and nonequilibrating forces in determining the trajectory of regional outputs, profits and employment.     

Ex-Ante Analysis of the Regional Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: A Rural–Urban Recursive Dynamic CGE Model Approach

A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.     

IMPLAN's Induced Effects Identified Through Multiplier Decomposition

An analysis of regional multipliers is developed to reveal a structural flaw in how IMPLAN computes induced effects. This analysis reveals a fixed ratio across sectors between total and Type I employment multipliers, and that IMPLAN's "Type III" income multipliers are inversely related to the average wages in the direct and indirect sectors, and that "Type III" output multipliers are not affected by wages. A multiplier decomposition is developed that separates direct and indirect effects from the induced and further separates the induced impact into relative wage and regional income retention effects. The decomposition is useful in making comparisons among impact models.     

Which region to choose for an industrial policy? A research path to highlight restructuring opportunities

Our study explores research avenues that can help policymakers to assess regional capabilities for ‘green’ economic restructuring. After reviewing the relevant literature, and envisioning research paths which consider both market transactions and externalities, we propose possible ways to translate past research findings into novel statistical tools. Our point of departure is the ‘skill relatedness’ among economic sectors in Norway, as inferred from intersectoral labour flows (years 2008–2014). Then, on the basis of the industrial composition in each of the 161 Norwegian labour market areas, candidate regions that could benefit the most from a ‘green’ restructuring policy, aimed at photovoltaics in our empirical example, are brought forward.     

THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC DIVERSITY ON UNEMPLOYMENT AND STABILITY*

ABSTRACT. For many years, regional scientists, economists, and geographers have been unable to clarify the influence of economic diversity on unemployment and instability in regional economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article presents plausible theory, proper units of analysis, valid measures, and more inclusive models of the diversity-stability relationship. The findings are generalizable because the sample includes most metropolitan areas in the U.S. The empirical analysis estimates the influence of diversity, employment concentrated in unstable industries, population size, growth rate, and control variables on unemployment and employment instability during the 1972–88 period. The results indicate that metropolitan areas which are more diverse experience lower unemployment rates and less instability than areas which are less diverse.     

Persistence of innovative activities in times of crisis: the case of the Basque Country

By drawing on a large sample of Spanish manufacturing and service sector firms, the changes in firms’ innovation expenditures that have taken place since the onset of the 2008 economic crisis are analysed, as is the relationship between such changes and the location of the company. Special focus is placed on firms in the Basque Country. Compared to other Spanish regions, the Basque Country differs in terms of its fiscal status, its earlier experience of crises, its innovation performance and its greater focus on innovation-related policies. Our results show that the impact of the crisis on firms’ innovation expenditures in the Basque Country has indeed differed from that in comparable Spanish regions. Even after controlling for sectoral differences and for detailed characteristics at the firm level, firms with R&D employment in the Basque Country showed a significantly lower probability of abandoning innovation activities and even a somewhat higher probability of increasing their innovation efforts. This regional effect is especially significant for small and medium-sized enterprises.