DISENTANGLING AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: AGENTS,SOURCES, AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE*

ABSTRACT This paper expands the literature on agglomeration economies in three ways. It disentangles amenity and productivity effects of agglomeration; it decomposes aggregate scale effects into agglomeration factors of interest to policy makers; and it estimates own effects and spillovers to neighbors. It proposes a spatial simultaneous equations model in a spatial equilibrium framework with three agents—workers, consumers, and producers of traded‐goods and housing. Results for Ohio counties estimate economies resulting from population size, agglomeration causes, and public service quality and cost on each of the three agents in own and neighboring counties.     

WAGES,RENTS, UNEMPLOYMENT,AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE: A CONSISTENT THEORY‐BASED MEASURE

Combining a spatial equilibrium model with a search‐matching unemployment model, this paper analyzes the willingness to pay for regional amenities and the regional quality of life when wages, rents, and unemployment risk compensate for local amenities and disamenities. The results are compared with those obtained from the Rosen‐Roback approach. We demonstrate that the traditional approach gives too much weight to the wage differential if search frictions are significant. Furthermore, the paper confirms that the wage curve is negatively sloped for quasi‐linear utility. Specifically, the wage rate increases and the unemployment rate decreases in response to an increase in the amenity level if the amenity is marginally more beneficial to producers than to consumers.     

Bayesian Analysis of Knowledge Spillovers in European Regions*

Abstract. This paper estimates the effects of knowledge spillovers on patent growth rates across 335 European regions over the 1989–1999 period. We propose a dynamic model based on an innovation production function. A Bayesian approach is used to take into account area‐specific innovation and spatial spillovers. The estimation of the model proceeds via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results show significant positive and negative spatial effects on innovative activity. The model allows for a rich spatial specification, which we illustrate by incorporating transport proximity measured by transportation time between regions to augment the typical spatial proximity measure of connectivity between regions. Doing this produces more pronounced spatial spillovers that exhibit a more polarized spatial pattern than a model relying on spatial proximity alone.     

IS PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER IN BRITISH CITIES?*

ABSTRACT This paper examines the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) using a GB plant‐level data set. The main findings relate to whether spatial spillovers and “place” effects are important: plants located in cities generally perform better than plants in the same region outside of these cities; but with the exception of Bristol, no city has significantly higher TFP levels than the South East. This suggests that spatial externalities associated with city location are not as important as the benefits of being situated in the South East region.     

SENIOR MIGRATION: SPATIAL CONSIDERATIONS OF AMENITY AND HEALTH ACCESS DRIVERS*

This paper extends the literature on amenity migration by focusing on healthcare access for later‐life migrants. Previous studies have strongly suggested that natural amenities are strong pull factors for later‐life migrants, but high natural amenity counties rarely possess the quality healthcare access optimal for elderly migrants. Utilizing a spatial Bayesian estimation strategy, we explicitly consider numerous drivers of later‐life migration to examine the extent to which health access is a driver in location decisions. We find healthcare access measures, including hospital expenditures, hospital beds, and number of doctors, are positively associated with later‐life migration decisions.     

SPATIAL MULTIPLIERS IN HEDONIC ANALYSIS: A COMMENT ON “SPATIAL HEDONIC MODELS OF AIRPORT NOISE,PROXIMITY, AND HOUSING PRICES”*

ABSTRACT This note draws upon the spatial‐hedonic analysis of Cohen and Coughlin to clarify the role of spatial multipliers in regression specification and benefits measurement, and to demonstrate the appropriate calculation of these benefits from dummy‐variable coefficients in semi‐logarithmic spatial‐lag models.     

BALANCED BUDGET MULTIPLIERS FOR SMALL OPEN REGIONS WITHIN A FEDERAL SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM THE SCOTTISH VARIABLE RATE OF INCOME TAX

This paper explores the impact on aggregate economic activity in a small, open region of an income tax funded expansion in public consumption that has no direct supply‐side effects. The conventional balanced budget multiplier produces an unambiguously positive macroeconomic stimulus, but the incorporation of negative competitiveness elements, through the operation of the local labor market, renders this positive outcome less certain. Simulation using a single‐region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland demonstrates that the creation of local amenity effects, and the extent to which these are incorporated into local wage bargaining, is central to the analysis.     

SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN BRITISH UNEMPLOYMENT

ABSTRACT. The recent literature on local unemployment in Britain and the U.S. is reviewed, and a model estimated for Britain which is consistent with the findings of that literature. Spatial econometric techniques are applied to test and elaborate on that model. The results indmte the presence of significant spillovers in adjustments to local demand shocks. These spillovers occur over a wide spatial field and are strongest after a lag, suggesting that they reflect migration behavior. In addition, highly localized spatial interactions are found, consistent with commuting adjustments in response to shocks. Incorporating these effects eliminates spatial autocorrelation from the residuals. A simulation exercise is undertaken to demonstrate the effects of supply- and demand-side shocks on the model solution.     

POPULATION DISPERSION VS. CONCENTRATION IN A TWO‐REGION MIGRATION MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS NATURAL AMENITIES*

ABSTRACT Contrary to the predictions of the basic spatial equilibrium model, the long‐run distribution of population across rural U.S. counties with high‐valued natural amenities has become relatively more concentrated versus dispersed. We provide an explanation by developing a two‐region model with mobile labor, production externalities and endogenous natural amenities. We find that strong preferences for natural amenities generally foster population dispersion. However, such preferences can also lead to population concentration when ecological degradation is low and man‐made capital is a relatively scarce input into natural amenity production. Investments that enhance natural amenities are found to reduce the divergence between the steady state and optimal outcomes.     

DRS. MUTH AND MILLS MEET DR. TIEBOUT: INTEGRATING LOCATION‐SPECIFIC AMENITIES INTO MULTI‐COMMUNITY EQUILIBRIUM MODELS*

ABSTRACT We consider the problem of integrating spatial amenities into locational equilibrium models with multiple jurisdictions. We provide sufficient conditions under which models that assume a single housing price in each community continue to apply in the presence of location‐specific amenities that vary both within and across communities. If these conditions are satisfied, the models, estimation methods, and results in Epple and Sieg (1999) are valid in the presence of (potentially unobserved) location‐specific amenities. We also show how to construct sufficient statistics that capture location specific spatial heterogeneity. We apply these techniques using data from the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. We find that these amenity measures capture proximity to important local employment centers as well as heterogeneity in school quality within a given school district.     

Properties of Tests for Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models

Based on a large number of Monte Carlo simulation experiments on a regular lattice, we compare the properties of Moran's I and Lagrange multiplier tests for spatial dependence, that is, for both spatial error autocorrelation and for a spatially lagged dependent variable. We consider both bias and power of the tests for six sample sizes, ranging from twenty-five to 225 observations, for different structures of the spatial weights matrix, for several underlying error distributions, for misspecified weights matrices, and for the situation where boundary effects are present. The results provide an indication of the sample sizes for which the asymptotic properties of the tests can be considered to hold. They also illustrate the power of the Lagrange multiplier tests to distinguish between substantive spatial dependence (spatial lag) and spatial dependence as a nuisance (error autocorrelation).     

Spatial accessibility and equity of playgrounds in Edmonton, Canada

Assessing spatial equity with respect to urban public amenity provision involves examining the association between amenity distribution and population need for amenities. Geographic Information Systems in coordination with local spatial autocorrelation, were used to investigate the association between neighbourhood accessibility to playgrounds and demographic and social need for playgrounds in Edmonton, while considering differences in playground quality throughout the city. The primary objectives of this study were to assess whether playground provision, for location and quality, in Edmonton is equitable and, more generally, to investigate the role that amenity quality plays in assessing spatial equity. The results indicate that playgrounds are equitably distributed within Edmonton, with the highest-social-need neighbourhoods having the greatest accessibility to playgrounds. However, once differences in playground quality are considered, there is less of an association between high-social-need and high-accessibility areas. The findings suggest that greater attention be paid to differences in playground quality within Edmonton and that spatial equity researchers give greater consideration to amenity quality when evaluating spatial equity within cities.     

Destination choices of Chinese rural–urban migrant workers: Jobs,amenities, and local spillovers

Using the 2014 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, we analyze rural–urban migrant workers’ destination choices after the global financial crisis, with an emphasis on jobs, amenities, and local spillovers. By using an equilibrium‐sorting model, this paper disentangles local spillovers from local attributes in the estimation process. We employ both an artificial instrumental variable and the provincial highway passenger flow in 1979 to tackle the endogeneity issue. After controlling for the network effects of migrants from the same origin, we find a separate and strong preference for colocating with a large population of migrants, regardless of origin. The results remain robust when we take into account labor supply‐driven migration, spatial autocorrelation between provinces, different industry definitions, and regional differences within provinces. Our results imply that due to institutional barriers, the rural‐migrant community will still be a very important factor in the foreseeable future. In addition, as the ongoing industrial upgrading and transfer policies in China may lead to a westward movement of rural–urban migrants, the movement will be expedited when the older, less educated, or lower income migrants relocate.     

KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS,ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,AND SKILL INTENSITY OF CHILEAN MANUFACTURING PLANTS*

ABSTRACT Knowledge spillovers are an important source of economic growth. In this study, we identify a mechanism through which knowledge spillovers occur among plants in the Chilean manufacturing industry. A plant‐level production function is estimated with the absorptive‐capacity hypothesis, that is, employment of skilled workers is a key channel through which knowledge is transmitted across plants. Results show that a plant's productivity from spillovers increases with its skill intensity, which is measured by the share of skilled workers in total employment. We also find that plants in a region with a large knowledge stock increase their skill intensity to benefit more from spillovers. Our results suggest that an increase in regional knowledge stock is the most effective policy to improve a plant's productivity. However, policies that encourage a plant to employ high skill‐intensive production also enhance its productivity.     

INTERREGIONAL KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS AND OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE IN A MODEL OF FREE TRADE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

ABSTRACT A two region model of horizontal innovation with free trade and occupational choice is used to examine the spatial patterns of innovation and manufacturing industry in interior and core‐periphery long‐run equilibria. The inclusion of skill heterogeneity among workers creates a tension between stabilizing productivity effects that coincide with reallocations of workers across industries, and destabilizing productivity effects that arise with localized stocks of knowledge capital. We find that while core‐periphery equilibria are always saddlepath stable, interior equilibria are saddlepath stable when knowledge spillovers exceed a threshold level but are unstable otherwise. In addition, incorporating skill heterogeneity into the model allows for interior equilibria with asymmetric shares for innovation and industry.     

Location and Growth in the Brazilian Northeast

Abstract Clustering of economic performance across jurisdictions has generated considerable research on the spillovers and linkages among geographical neighbors. Much of this work, however, has been aspatial, implying that the influence of location attributes on growth has been largely ignored. In this paper, we examine the contribution of location to regional economic growth using municipio‐level data for the Brazilian Northeast—a historically lagging region of the country. We test if productivity among northeastern municipios is converging to a steady state and whether spatial externalities are linked to productivity growth in individual municipios. We find that, conditional on structural characteristics, productivity among municipios is converging at about 3 percent per year. Further, productivity in individual municipios is positively associated with own‐structural characteristics but negatively associated with productivity growth in neighboring municipios. This means that there are negative spatial externalities coming from productivity improvements in neighboring regions.     

VERTICAL INDUSTRY RELATIONS,SPILLOVERS, AND PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHILEAN PLANTS*

ABSTRACT We use disaggregated data on Chilean plants, and the Chilean input–output table to examine the impact of agglomeration spillovers on total factor productivity (TFP). In common with previous studies, we find evidence for intraindustry spillovers, but none for general cross‐industry spillovers. This picture changes when we take vertical industry relations into account. There are important productivity spillovers from plants in upstream industries. Interestingly, a similar effect cannot be found from plants in downstream industries. The number of plants in these sectors has no effect on plant‐level TFP, just as the number of plants in other industries that are neither important upstream suppliers nor downstream customers also has no effect.     

AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES: MICRODATA PANEL ESTIMATES FROM CANADIAN MANUFACTURING*

ABSTRACT This paper identifies the main sources of urban increasing returns, after Marshall. The geographical distance across which externalities flow is also examined. We bring to bear on these questions plant‐level data organized in the form of a panel across the years 1989 and 1999. Plant‐level production functions are estimated across the Canadian manufacturing sector as a whole and for five broad industry groups, each characterized by the nature of its output. The panel data overcome selection bias resulting from unobserved plant‐level heterogeneity that is constant over time. A related set of estimates using instrumental variables allay persistent concerns with endogeneity. Results provide strong support for Marshall's claims about the importance of buyer‐supplier networks, labor market matching and spillovers. We show that spillovers enhance plant productivity within industries rather than between them and that these spillovers are highly localized.     

LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATES OF THE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIER: AN APPRAISAL*

Basically, we have attempted to show the following in the course of setting out the algebra of regression analysis of selected regional employment multiplier models: (1) When the basic features of the model are shaped by the assumption of an unlagged response of local employment to changes in export employment, the least squares estimates of the multipliers are highly sensitive to the export coefficients vector A, given the sample observation matrix X. In a completely disaggregated model such as Equation (21), the multipliers are solely determined by the export coefficients and thus are entirely independent of sample observations. However, this independence does not hold in the case of a partially disaggregated model. The identity relation is also destroyed when a lag relationship is introduced into a completely disaggregated model. (2) A simple lag model produces results bascially different from those obtained by an unlagged model if the overall differences between current and lagged observations are significant. (3) Given a matrix of sample observations on employment, it is possible to estimate the upper limits of a least-squares aggregate multiplier and its variance simply from knowledge of the export coefficients (4) The export coefficients vector has also an important bearing upon the correlation coefficient. The correlation is unity if and only if the export coefficients vector is proportional to the local employment coefficients vector, while it is zero if and only if the export coefficients vector is a vector all of whose elements are one. Also, the correlation coefficient is equal to one when a completely disaggregated model is used. There is finally the question of what these results mean in terms of the formulation of a multiplier model. First of all, in view of the crucial importance of the export coefficients and the difficulties of estimating them, most of the existing models do not seem to offer promising results. Furthermore, all the models examined here have made some simplifying assumption with respect to the constancy of the export coefficients. It remains highly uncertain whether these coefficients are reasonably stable over time. Of course, it would be theoretically more acceptable to relax the assumption of the invariance of export coefficients and to obtain such coefficients at different points of time for each industry. However, this would be accomplished only at the cost of increased difficulties of estimating larger numbers of export coefficients. In addition, there is some doubt as to the validity of the assumption that export employment is proportional to export sales. Since a lag relationship is important not only in terms of attempts to formulate multiplier models more realistically, but also in terms of its significant effect on the multiplier values obtained, the nature and the form of a lagged response and its estimation problems need to be investigated in depth. Finally, problems of least squares bias and efficiency, inference, and prediction which may arise in the context of various models presented here remain to be investigated. A detailed analysis of such problems must be the subject of further investigation.     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN LABOR DEMAND ELASTICITY: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES

We use a large panel dataset covering the period 1988–2010 to estimate county specific own‐wage elasticity of labor demand in the U.S. for four highly aggregated industries: construction, finance/insurance/real‐estate/service, manufacturing, and retail trade. Our estimation of a random parameter panel data model yields significant evidence of spatial variations in wage elasticity of labor demand. We relate the spatial variation in elasticity to differences in county characteristics like industry specialization, industry competition, levels of natural amenity and urbanization. Using a regression discontinuity approach we also find that probusiness states have higher labor demand elasticity.