中国区域经济增长趋同与分异研究

本对改革开放以来我国区域经济增长过程的实证分析表明,1978—1990年我国的区域经济增长表现为σ趋同,在1990-1999年期间则没有出现σ趋同,却表现为分异。与此相对应,1978-1990年我国的区域经济增长也发生了β趋同,趋同的速度在2．2％以上。这个速度与国外学关于β趋同速度在2％左右的结论相接近。但是,1990-1999年我国区域经济增长的β趋同系数却为正值,表明这个时期我国区域经济增长并没有出现β趋同,而是出现了分异。就1978-1999年的总体情况看,我国区域经济增长存在着β趋同,不过β趋同的速度很小,只略高于0．9％。在1978-1999年期间,我国的区域经济增长存在着明显的俱乐部趋同现象。因此,在实施西部大开发战略的同时,国家的区域政策还必须根据变化了的区域经济格局,采取有针对性的分区调控措施,才能够有效促进全国区域经济协调发展。     

ONCE AGAIN: TESTING FOR REGIONAL HOMOGENEITY*

ABSTRACT. Summarizing the foregoing discussions in this journal on testing for regional homogeneity the present note shows that in the model of Zellner's seemingly unrelated regressions one test statistic may be used not only to test for overall homogeneity but also to examine for individual coefficient homogeneity. This aim is achieved by varying the linear restrictions in the test statistic according to different problems. To illustrate these tests regional consumption functions for the 11 Bundesläder (States) of the Federal Republic of Germany are used.     

THE OPTIMAL CONVERGENCE OF REGIONAL INCOMES*

For many policy considerations it is assumed that the convergence of regional mean income will improve national equity by reducing overall inequality. The literature on decomposability of social welfare functions implies that this assumption is unwarranted. This paper develops a notion of optimal regional convergence. In general, the point of optimal convergence depends on the shapes of the regional income distributions, the inequality index used, and the rule for distributing interregional transfers. These concepts are illustrated with data on the regional income distributions of the Southern and Northern United States.     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

我国东西部地区差异的实证研究与收敛性的R/S分析

本介绍了赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)的计算方法,分析了我国改革开放以来的东西部人均GDP的差异,试图用分形理论中的R／S分析法分析1978--1999年我国基尼系数的收敛性约分形特征,得到赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB),进而分析这个时间序列的发展特性,并预测我国区域经济发展差异的未来变化趋势,提出政策建议,为国家的宏观调控政策提供理论上的依据。     

STATE PER CAPITA INCOME CONVERGENCE SINCE 1950: SHARECROPPING'S DEMISE AND OTHER INFLUENCES*

ABSTRACT. Prevailing theories wrongly attribute post-1950 convergence of state per capita incomes to (1) neoclassical adjustment mechanisms, (2) institutional sclerosis, and (3) southern industrialization. But convergence-essentially a weakening of southern poverty–resulted mainly from the South's overcoming its legacy of slavery: the sharecropper-tenant system, agricultural dependence, high black population percentages, poor education, and low wage rates. Sharecropping was the dominant feature; abject poverty among sharecroppers dragged southern income to its knees. Sharecropping's collapse and attendant South-to-North migration affected the legacy's other features in ways that raised income. Manufacturing growth and transport improvements caused relative income in the West to decline.     

2. ONCE AGAIN,WITH MORE FEELING

This book summarizes in a compact volume Runciman's arguments to comparative sociologists that their discipline belongs under the theoretical umbrella of neo‐Darwinian selectionism. In his view, heritable variation and competitive selection govern cultural and social as well as biological evolution. Runciman makes a strong case for the usefulness of selectionism, but two of the theory's central features are problematic: his choice of units of selection; and the notion that culture can be distinguished from society historically as well as analytically. No one friendly to the basic project would argue against the need for hypotheses about units that undergo selection, but arguments can be made, also on pragmatic grounds, that he has chosen the wrong kinds of units. Runciman's learning and wisdom show to good effect in the book's fundamental approach: in the overall human story, the biological, cultural, and social coevolve. The quickly accumulating evidence of evolutionary psychology, anthropology, sociology, and neuroscience strongly supports the hypothesis that there is a biological basis for a great deal of human behavior, and also that sociocultural evolution modifies genes. History, in this way of thinking, is like a “braided stream” of unpredictably mutating, blending, and coevolving biological, cultural, and social processes. The old Darwinian image of branching fails to capture the complexity of evolutionary processes in biology, culture, and society. Runciman outlines a unified bio‐social science relying upon information theory. If his program were carried out consistently it would relegate to a non‐scientific level the traditional historical narratives about “carriers” or “vehicles”. The scientific‐explanatory level would instead feature replicators. Gametheory strategies play a prominent role in the selectionist picture. The emphasis on units of information stored in human brains or in exosomatic brain prostheses pushes neuroscience and information theory to the fore. An argument for the analytic‐heuristic value of “memes” and “practices” should be weighed against the value of other hypothetical units undergoing selection in a sociocultural evolutionary approach.