中国区域经济增长趋同与分异研究

本对改革开放以来我国区域经济增长过程的实证分析表明,1978—1990年我国的区域经济增长表现为σ趋同,在1990-1999年期间则没有出现σ趋同,却表现为分异。与此相对应,1978-1990年我国的区域经济增长也发生了β趋同,趋同的速度在2．2％以上。这个速度与国外学关于β趋同速度在2％左右的结论相接近。但是,1990-1999年我国区域经济增长的β趋同系数却为正值,表明这个时期我国区域经济增长并没有出现β趋同,而是出现了分异。就1978-1999年的总体情况看,我国区域经济增长存在着β趋同,不过β趋同的速度很小,只略高于0．9％。在1978-1999年期间,我国的区域经济增长存在着明显的俱乐部趋同现象。因此,在实施西部大开发战略的同时,国家的区域政策还必须根据变化了的区域经济格局,采取有针对性的分区调控措施,才能够有效促进全国区域经济协调发展。     

ONCE AGAIN: TESTING FOR REGIONAL HOMOGENEITY*

ABSTRACT. Summarizing the foregoing discussions in this journal on testing for regional homogeneity the present note shows that in the model of Zellner's seemingly unrelated regressions one test statistic may be used not only to test for overall homogeneity but also to examine for individual coefficient homogeneity. This aim is achieved by varying the linear restrictions in the test statistic according to different problems. To illustrate these tests regional consumption functions for the 11 Bundesläder (States) of the Federal Republic of Germany are used.     

湖南省区域趋同分析

根据区域趋同基本理论,采用新古典方法分析了湖南省区域趋同状况.结果表明,自我国实施社会主义市场经济体制以来,湖南省区域经济增长总体表现为条件趋同,趋同速度约为每年1.93%.受地理区位的影响,湖南省内部区域差异较大,国家发展政策对湖南省区域趋同的影响相当显著,例如,湘西自治州纳入西部大开发增强了湖南省区域增长的收敛性.而产业结构和投资状况对于区域经济增长的作用不强.在此基础上,提出几点促进湖南省区域趋同的对策.     

THE OPTIMAL CONVERGENCE OF REGIONAL INCOMES*

For many policy considerations it is assumed that the convergence of regional mean income will improve national equity by reducing overall inequality. The literature on decomposability of social welfare functions implies that this assumption is unwarranted. This paper develops a notion of optimal regional convergence. In general, the point of optimal convergence depends on the shapes of the regional income distributions, the inequality index used, and the rule for distributing interregional transfers. These concepts are illustrated with data on the regional income distributions of the Southern and Northern United States.     

REGIONAL INCOME EVOLUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA AFTER APARTHEID*

ABSTRACT South Africa is one of the wealthiest countries on the African continent. The high national level (and growth) of GDP per capita, however, masks significant differences in economic performance across South Africa's regions. This paper uses (spatial) Markov chain techniques to describe the evolution of the entire cross‐section regional income distribution in terms of its intra‐distributional characteristics during the post‐Apartheid period. The results indicate a heavily diverging regional income distribution. Relatively poor regions are likely to remain poor or become even poorer and the richest regions will maintain their lead in terms of income levels. Explicitly taking account of space furthermore shows that these high‐income regions are acting as local growth poles, absorbing economic activity from their immediate surroundings. Location, trade, education, and the variable fortune of the gold mining industry seem to be important determinants of the observed evolution.     

我国东西部地区差异的实证研究与收敛性的R/S分析

本介绍了赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB)的计算方法,分析了我国改革开放以来的东西部人均GDP的差异,试图用分形理论中的R／S分析法分析1978--1999年我国基尼系数的收敛性约分形特征,得到赫斯特指数(H)和分维值(DB),进而分析这个时间序列的发展特性,并预测我国区域经济发展差异的未来变化趋势,提出政策建议,为国家的宏观调控政策提供理论上的依据。     

TRANSBOUNDARY INCOME AND EXPENDITURE FLOWS IN REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Nearly all regional input-output models have been constructed without a proper accounting of inflows and outflows of personal income and personal consumption expenditures. Typically invoked is a no cross-payments assumption, analogous to the no cross-hauling assumption for commodities. We present a new accounting framework based on the classification of flows according to the location of income generation, receipt, and spending, and argue that only flows endogenous in all three respects should be part of a closed regional I-O model. We use the framework to compute the upward bias in multipliers in a typical regional I-O model. We also present several methods for estimating transboundary flows.     

我国区域产业结构趋同问题研究综述

近20年来,国内学者和部分国外学者从产业结构趋同角度对我国区域经济发展状况进行了细致深入的研究。目前国内对此问题的研究主要集中在以下四个方面:产业结构趋同的测度方法;我国整体或局部地区(如长江三角洲地区)是否存在产业结构趋同;产业结构趋同合理与否研究;我国产业结构趋同的成因(包括分析方法和分析结果)及政策建议。本文从产业结构趋同的测度方法角度对该领域文献进行了分类综述,并在此基础上对文献中实证研究、分析手段的适用性和不足之处加以评述。     

STATE PER CAPITA INCOME CONVERGENCE SINCE 1950: SHARECROPPING'S DEMISE AND OTHER INFLUENCES*

ABSTRACT. Prevailing theories wrongly attribute post-1950 convergence of state per capita incomes to (1) neoclassical adjustment mechanisms, (2) institutional sclerosis, and (3) southern industrialization. But convergence-essentially a weakening of southern poverty–resulted mainly from the South's overcoming its legacy of slavery: the sharecropper-tenant system, agricultural dependence, high black population percentages, poor education, and low wage rates. Sharecropping was the dominant feature; abject poverty among sharecroppers dragged southern income to its knees. Sharecropping's collapse and attendant South-to-North migration affected the legacy's other features in ways that raised income. Manufacturing growth and transport improvements caused relative income in the West to decline.     

江苏省县域经济集聚和收敛的空间计量分析

通过探索性空间数据分析和空间计量分析方法,以实际人均GDP为测度指标,对江苏省65个县市的经济空间集聚、增长收敛性以及收敛机制进行讨论。研究发现1993-2009年实际人均GDP显示出越来越高的全局正相关,局部空间相关性也有增强的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明江苏省县域经济存在着β收敛,分时段研究为不同研究时段选择恰当的空间收敛模型后,收敛速度加快。技术扩散收敛机制和资本收敛机制分别在研究区间的前期和后期占主导作用,收敛机制的转变与江苏省在20世纪90年代末开始实行的区域协调发展政策密切相关。     

RISK AND INCOME TRADEOFFS IN REGIONAL POLICY: A PORTFOLIO THEORETIC APPROACH*

ABSTRACT. Policy makers often try to raise a region's income by altering its industrial mix. However, such attempts to increase local income may have an adverse effect on the stability of the region's economy. In this paper, we develop single-, aggregate-, and multiregional portfolio models that can be used by policy makers to generate frontiers of risk/income-efficient industrial mixtures for a regional economy. These portfolio models are modified for application to the tourist industry in six regions of Spain. In practice, we find that the introduction of bounds on the magnitude of sector rebalancing has a major effect on the model solutions.     

形象趋同与个性趋异:资源同质目的地品牌差异化定位研究

品牌差异化定位是目的地获取竞争优势的重要手段,当前由于目的地旅游资源同质化,导致了目的地品牌形象趋同、竞争力下降等问题。针对此,本研究试图借鉴品牌个性理论找到目的地差异化定位的新视角。文章选取周庄、乌镇和西塘三个资源禀赋相同的目的地为研究对象,通过分析到访旅游者撰写的游记发现,虽然旅游者对不同目的地的感知形象相似,但是感知个性存在明显差异。其中,乌镇的个性集中表现为"雅";周庄"智"的个性最突出;西塘则在"乐"上有更好表现。基于此,本文为三个目的地提供了个性导向的品牌定位建议。研究表明在品牌形象趋同的情况下,资源同质旅游目的地仍可借助趋异的品牌个性进行差异化定位,并使品牌获得持久的竞争力。     

THE EFFECTS OF COLLATERALIZABLE INCOME AND DEBT OVERHANG ON ENTREPRENEURIAL INVESTMENT IN AN OPEN REGIONAL ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT We use a two‐period model to analyze the contractual relationship between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists in an open regional economy. First, we describe the first best investment contract, we study the second best investment contract in the presence of private information, and then we examine the impact of an exogenous second‐period income endowment (collateralizable income) on investment by entrepreneurs. Next, we analyze the interaction between entrepreneurs and venture capitalists when the regional government (RG) must pay off a per capita debt (debt overhang) which it finances by taxing successful second‐period entrepreneurs. We show that a rise in the per capita debt has an effect on investment that is analogous to a fall in the second‐period income endowment. In addition, the overhang of the RG's debt discourages entrepreneurial investment.