康熙四十六年长三角地区旱灾与气候背景

康熙四十六年五至七月,长三角地区长时间没有出现降水天气,引发大范围旱灾。以县级成灾分数资料为基础,复原出本次旱灾主要分布于30°—33°N,在太湖流域形成重灾中心;再利用分辨率较高的《杨大瓢日记》,重建长三角地区四至七月逐日降水序列。通过分析,得出旱灾形成的原因是该年副高势力偏强,较早完成季节性北移,导致雨带北移速度快,梅雨期出现异常。此外,本次旱灾与太阳活动、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象有较强的相关性。     

金朝前期陕甘区域文化特征

<正>金朝陕甘地区位于金朝版图的西部,包括京兆府路、凤翔路、鄜延路、庆原路和临洮路,即今陕西大部及甘肃南部及部分宁夏和青海地区。其西面、南面分别与西夏、南宋相邻,东北与东南分别与河东路与南京路相接。在自然地理上由关中平原和陕北黄土高原两大地貌单元组成。关中自秦汉以来就是农业经济发达的地区。陕北黄土高原有一定的降水和草地,因此在历史上为北方游牧民族南下放     

南海潜热异常年份特征分析与华南地区降水研究

本文使用 1971—2010 年 NCEP 再分析资料和全球降水重建资料(PREC/L)研究南海潜热异常和华南地区降水的关系,结果表明:南海地区大部分地区数值都在 100w·m-2 以上,有着西南 - 东北方向递增分布趋势。潜热异常年,春季的潜热通量占全年的比重最大,而春季和冬季与正常年相比变化较大。从月份统计得出,1 月和 12 月潜热通量数值占全年比重最大,与正常年相比,7 月变化较大。潜热偏强年,吹向南海地区的风主要来自于我国西南地区和中南半岛,造成低空与近海面湿度相差较大,使得我国南海地区潜热偏强,而华南地区受到来自孟加拉湾和西北太平洋的水汽降水偏多。潜热偏弱年与之相反。     

1724年以来北京地区雨季逐月降水序列的重建与分析

长尺度高分辨率降水重建是过去全球变化研究的重点内容之一。本文以1724-1904年清代逐日降水记录"晴雨录"为基础数据,结合现代降水观测资料,利用最小二乘法建立了逐日降水等级与降水量的关系方程,方程方差解释量达到85%以上,进而重建了1724-1904年北京的5-9月逐月降水量。同时,结合早期及现代器测降水资料,分析了1724年以来北京的5-9月逐月降水量的变化特征。降水重建序列具有以下特征:存在明显的年际—年代际降水周期,其中年际尺度的波动为2-7年;年代际尺度的波动在1890年以前以61-90年为主要周期,而1890年以后则转为25-40年。1724-1742年,1783-1820年,1871-1890年,1916-1930年,1950-1965年和1981-2000年降水偏多;1743-1782年,1821-1870年,1897-1915年,1931-1949年,1966-1980年和2000年以后降水偏少。     

对我国1959～1961年气候条件的分析与评估

1959～1961年期间,我国天气气候的特点是:降水偏少,降水时空分布不均,特别是1960年,全国范围大旱;华北、西北、东北、黄淮、江淮、江南、华南、西南等地区出现不同程度的洪涝;暴雨洪涝、台风、冰雹、低温阴雨、冻害、华西秋雨、寒露风影响也较大。总的来看,这三年期间的天气气候条件对全国的农业生产十分不利。从气象灾害造成的损失来看,1959年和1961年为损失偏重年份,1960年为严重年份。     

关中为何成为帝王之都

正《史记·留侯世家》称关中"金城千里,天府之国"。何谓"天府之国"?即因土地肥沃、物产丰富而含天子府库之意。关中平原由渭河冲积而成的深厚沃土,加之渭河、泾河等河流的灌溉之源,在农业为本的古代社会中极尽地利之势。对于国都而言,另一项必须考虑的就是军事地理与交通区位。就地形来说,中国古人将易守难攻之地称为"形胜之区,四塞之国",关中地区就具备这样的地形条件:南有秦岭,北则黄土丘陵山地,关中平原地处其中,不仅营造"四塞之国"的地形,且平原与山地接合之处的山间谷地自然     

红杏一枝报春来(外一篇)

在气候温和的内地,4月早已是春暖花开的季节。在地处高原的青海,却又是另外一番景象。如果说乍暖还寒是正常年景高原春季的主调,那么像今年这首冷热陡变抑扬顿挫的春曲,就又该是近几年来常有的高原之春的变奏。但无论怎样,自从立春以后,天气还是一天天变长了,气温也在一点点地升高。那些被枯叶掩藏的小草,同样也在日渐变绿。小草丛里的花树,也逐日鼓起     

要闻

<正>美宇航局发布2100年全球气候变化预测图据美国宇航局(NASA)网站报道,该机构近日发布了直到2100年全球气温与降水的变化预测情况。这项研究中所使用的全部是公众可以查询到的公开数据,根据21个气候模型进行模拟计算,反映全球范围内不同地区在二氧化碳不同排放量的影响下所产生的结果。这项新的数据集是美国宇航局"地球交换"(NEX)项目下的一项最新成果。它结合了来自全球各地的实测数据以及利用气候模型开展模拟得到的预测数据,     

渭南地区秦魏诸长城考辨

春秋战国时的河西,亦称西河,即今陕西关中东部黄河以西,洛河以东,南自华山、北抵黄龙山前的广大地区。此处系关中平原的开阔地带,扼秦晋水陆通道,山河表里险阻可恃,为兵家必争的战略要地。早在春秋时”,秦晋对峙于河西。前645年,秦晋大战于韩原,晋军败,     

1609—1615年长江下游地区梅雨特征的重建

根据明代李日华的《味水轩日记》和项鼎铉的《呼桓日记》中有关浙江嘉兴地区的夏季天气、感应记录,重建了1609-1615年夏季嘉兴地区的降水序列,并确定其梅雨期的入梅和出梅时间。据此,对上述年份梅雨进行了分类,其降水在雨期开始、结束日期和持续时间等特征上与现代浙江北部地区的梅雨特征均存在一定差异。进而根据地方志中的旱涝灾害情况,分析了梅雨特征与长江中下游地区旱涝的关系,二者虽然有密切关系,但不是完全意义上的契合,甚至有些年份完全相反。这对于了解小冰期前期的梅雨活动和特征以及与长江中下游地区旱涝状况均具有重要意义。     

The new Siberia

This paper assesses relationships between Scottish ice climbing and daily weather conditions between 1961 and 1990. Synoptic air flow and instrumental climate data from Braemar and Fort Augustus were analysed in relation to first ascents of ice climbs in the Cairngorms, and on Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. Lagged weather variables were calculated and stepwise logistic regression was used to estimate optimum models for both areas. Significant variables are anticyclonicity, low minimum air temperature and northerly or easterly airflow (Cairngorms, P = 0.0006); and northerly or easterly airflow, low minimum air temperature and low precipitation (Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh, P < 0.0001). A five‐day cold spell is optimum for Ben Nevis and Creag Meagaidh. A week with relatively little precipitation is beneficial in both areas. Air flow direction is more influential than vorticity, the optimum predictors of ice conditions using synoptic data alone are a persistent easterly component (beneficial), and a persistent southerly and westerly component (detrimental), P < 0.0001.     

Whether Rain or Shine: Weather Regimes from a New Guinea Perspective

The climate of any region is of interest to those who live there, impinging as it inevitably does on their lives. This paper explores the interest evinced in the weather by some Wola speakers, living in the Southern Highlands Province of Papua New Guinea. It is an attempt at an ethno-meteorology, a scarcely researched but creditable field of enquiry. It compares and contrasts observations of the climate and records of the weather with local people's comments and thoughts on these phenomena. The paper covers both daily weather patterns and annual seasons, with a detailed investigation of rainfall patterns, cloud cover, wind and pressure, and temperature and humidity variations. It concludes on the management of climatic perturbations, notably infrequent frosts.     

The Potential of Tree Rings in Eucalyptus pauciflora for Climatological and Hydrological Reconstruction

We investigate the causes of variability in a tree‐ring chronology comprising data from Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb. Ex. Spreng. at the alpine treeline on the Kosciuszko Plateau in New South Wales, Australia. Following verification of crossdating in a subset of the available data, we found that ring width correlates significantly with net radiation, precipitation and mean minimum and maximum air temperature during the preceding winter and spring of the growing season. Our results for spring are consistent with the impact of climate on tree growth in alpine woodlands reported in previous studies. Analyses of snow‐depth data revealed negative correlations with ring width throughout winter and spring. Our results indicate that low temperature and high precipitation during winter negatively affect the growth of E. pauciflora by prolonging spring snow cover. Ring width also correlates significantly with an index of soil dryness and flow in rivers with their headwaters in the Kosciuszko plateau. Given the apparent sensitivity of our chronology to climate and snow conditions, our results suggest that tree‐ring chronologies comprising data from E. pauciflora at the alpine treeline have potential for climatological and hydrological reconstruction in southeast Australia.     

An exploration of regional climate change scenarios for Scotland

Based on a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) experiment, a climate change scenario for Scotland for the end of this century is constructed with the aim of exploring the added value of utilising a regional rather than a global model (GCM) for climate change scenario construction. Spatial variations in regional seasonal average temperature and precipitation change are analysed and the local response of ‘extreme’ weather events to climate warming is assessed using daily model output. The analyses suggest that in comparison with the GCM, the RCM does not provide fundamentally different patterns of seasonal climate change and daily weather response over Scotland, although it does capture more subtle spatial variations in these changes. The RCM also simulates more realistic daily weather events than the GCM, although the relative changes in the frequencies of daily extremes are not greatly different. However, with the limited length of the single model simulation analysed here, it is not easy to establish how robust and significant are the sub‐national patterns of climate response across Scotland. To improve the quality and comprehensiveness of regional climate change scenario information, a number of research issues remain to be addressed.     

The application of quicklook NOAA AVHRR satellite imagery in Northern Scandinavia for synoptic weather analyses

The suitability of imagery from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA series of satellites for the synoptic classification of circulation trends in the European Arctic is assessed with reference to data from three climate stations. Simplified synoptic cyclonic classifications are derived from the satellite imagery and tested against climate data. Five classes of frontal system are derived from the tracking of systems over the UK‐Scandinavia‐Baltic region using 1460 satellite images over two years. An index based on the qualitative interpretation of satellite imagery was related to the reference data. The tracking of the systems in the imagery also facilitates a comparison of travel times across the region and the frequency of occurrence. Frontal systems that remain largely stationary over the Baltic were found to correlate best with precipitation at the reference sites. The paper thus investigates the use of AVHRR imagery for the categorisation of weather patterns towards deriving quantitative relationships between circulation classes and weather elements (such as temperature and precipitation) where, for example, climate data are sparse or where skills required for the interpretation of Height Potential Fields are lacking.     

The Nigerian oil palm industry

Some 10,000 years ago with the disappearance of the last Devensian ice, the climate of the British Isles began a slow but general warming. This continued until the middle of the fifteenth century when the Little Ice Age developed, ushering in several centuries of colder weather and violent fluctuations in weather associated with the expansion of the circumpolar vortex. Detailed information of the effect on Scotland's weather of this major climatic disturbance is rare but The Chronicle of Fife written in the seventeenth century by John Lamont does provide some remarkable insights.     

QBO and solar activity effects on temperatures in the mesopause region

This statistical correlation study is based on two upper mesospheric temperature data sets for the region around 90 km, on the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and on the solar 10.7-cm radiation. The temperatures are measurements from passive OH1-spectrometers and lidar sounding experiments carried out between 1980 and 1988 at geographic latitudes between 50°N and 70° N. An anticorrelation exists betwen the 10.7-cm flux and the temperatures. Two different types of significance tests were used to check the confidence level of the correlation. The anti-correlation is highly significant (confidence ⪢ 99.99%) for latitudes around 50°N if the QBO is in its east phase and for the spring/summer temperatures. The anti-correlation is not significant for the QBO west phase and for fall/winter temperatures (confidence < 95%). For higher latitudes, around 79°N, no significant correlation was found.     

Climatic signal in tree-ring chronologies of Cedrus deodara from Chitral Hindukush Range of Pakistan

Tree-rings are an important tool for the investigation of paleoclimatic records for regions or periods of time with no instrumental climatic data. However, the responses of different species and sites to various climatic parameters are unusual. In the present study, we developed tree-ring-width chronologies of Cedrus deodara from three different sites of Chitral Hindukush range of Pakistan. The study was conducted to understand tree-growth climate relationship and its applicability in proxy climate investigations. The chronologies covered the past 469 to 595 years, with a mean segment length (MSL) ranging from 148 to 223 years. Climatic data obtained from the three weather stations showed strong correlation and was found useful for tree-ring climate relationships. Correlation Function (CF) and Response Function (RF) analysis showed that spring precipitation (March–May) is a critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature prior to November may also play a major role in affecting tree ring-growth. The results exposed that the three sites have continuous relationship indicated that only single species from different locations are affected by the same environmental variables and hence can be used in climate reconstruction in combination. The Cedrus deodara chronologies developed at different locations had several corresponding narrow and wide marker rings indicating a large macroclimatic response to regional climatic conditions. The current study suggests that the tree-rings of Cedrus deodara from the Chitral Hindukush range could be used to develop chronologies for the reconstruction of seasonal climatic variables.     

Detrended fluctuation analysis of daily atmospheric surface temperature records in Atlantic Canada

The presence and properties of long‐range correlations in temperature data reflect interactions among climate components; therefore, the quantitative characterization of scaling aspects of temperature patterns is important to climate research and can serve as an effective constituent of tests for climate models. The article presents the results of a study using multiscale characterization of daily atmospheric surface temperature patterns in Atlantic Canada. Important influences in this region are exerted from the west (the Pacific Ocean), the south (the Gulf of Mexico) and the north (the Arctic), while a significant easterly impact is due to the Atlantic Ocean; the corresponding processes involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The objective of the present study of long‐term temperature recordings was to evaluate the scaling properties produced in this geographical context. The data consist of homogenized daily atmospheric temperature time series recorded in stations from Atlantic Canada over a time interval of more than 100 years. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was applied both to maximum and minimum temperature records. The atmospheric temperature pattern produced by the interplay of factors of different strengths and dominating various time‐space scales was found to be characterized by consistent scaling properties, expressed over time intervals ranging from months to decades. Higher values of DFA scaling exponents were obtained for minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature records. Site‐specific properties include stronger pattern persistence—higher DFA exponents—for oceanic than for coastal locations; persistence tends to decrease with increasing distance from the coast for distances up to 10 kilometres. Scaling exponents tend to increase with decreasing difference between average minimum and maximum temperature, which may be relevant for the assessment of future changes in pattern variability if climate change involves modified contrasts between minimum and maximum temperature values.     

白洋淀地区史前环境考古初步研究

作为典型的冲积低平原与浅湖沼地貌形态的白洋淀地区,是研究全新世环境变迁及古环境与古文化相互关系的重要地域。全新世气候的变化,不仅影响着白洋淀地区的自然环境,同时也影响着史前人类的生存模式。多年来该区域考古发现的资料证实,全新世气候暖湿与冷干的交替变化,直接影响到遗址分布的数量和所处的地貌位置,亦即影响到人类对居住点的选择,与此同时也影响着史前文化的经济生活类型。