A FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL MODELING AND IMPACT ANALYSIS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY BY LARGE MUNICIPALITIES IN ONTARIO,CANADA*

ABSTRACT. We propose a mixed fixed and random coefficients framework for regional modeling. The framework allows the presence of both the region-specific effects and commonality of responses across regions. Bayes solutions for estimating parameters of interest and for generating predictions are derived. Within a Bayesian framework a predictive density approach to evaluate the impact of changes is suggested. We apply the methodology to evaluate the impact of new rate structures on Ontario regional demand for electricity.     

Integrating Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake

In this paper we summarize an integrated, operational model of losses due to earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. The procedure advances the information provided by transportation and activity system analysis techniques in ways that help capture the most important ecomonic implications of earthquakes. Network costs and origin-destination requirements are modeled endogenously and consistently. Indirect and induced losses associated with direct impacts on transportation and industrial capacity are distributed across zones and ecomonic sectors. Preliminary results are summarized for a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Elysian Park blind thrust fault in Los Angeles.     

Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions*

Abstract. Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only “business‐as‐usual” conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.     

The regional impact of the channel tunnel: Qualitative and quantitative analysis

The paper addresses the question of how different types of regions mill be affected by the development of a major new transport infrastructure such as the Channel Tunnel. It summarizes a study on the regional impacts of the Channel Tunnel throughout the European Union (EU). The research design combined qualitative methods of futures exploration employing 13 regional case studies with quantitative forecasting techniques using the MEPLAN transport and economic model. The paper presents the methodology and major results of the two approaches with respect to the impacts of the Channel Tunnel on transport flows and regional development in Europe and draws conclusions for transport and regional policy of the EU. The paper demonstrates that the removal of a bottleneck like the Channel Tunnel does not necessarily induce economic gains in all adjacent regions. Much more important for regional economic development than the reduction of transport costs are the image to be a region well integrated into the European high‐speed transport network and an active political response of the region to take advantage of opportunities like the Channel Tunnel.     

MODERN MACROECONOMICS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELING*

ABSTRACT Despite a history of regional economic models being patterned after their national counterparts, modern macroeconomic methodology has yet to be fully embraced by regional scientists. In this paper, I argue that modern macroeconomic methodology has much to offer the field of regional economic modeling. For one, the empirical strategies used in implementing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models provide insights into how regional computable general equilibrium models could be better parameterized and empirically verified. In addition, the structural macroeconomic approach more generally could be used to construct structural regional policy analysis models for use as alternatives to traditional regional models.     

Regional Scientific Production and Specialization in Europe: The Role of HERD

This paper analyses the effects of R&D expenditure in the higher education sector on the scientific production across regions in Europe 15. Our research questions relate to the regional production of science and the role of academic R&D expenditures on regional scientific output. The results show that money affects the production of scientific results in regions. On average, we found different impacts and lags of R&D expenditure according to the level of regional development. Our findings also suggest that scientific specialization is a significant factor affecting scientific outputs, although its effects differ across disciplines and regions.     

A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS

This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.     

A multi‐criteria analysis of Canadian electricity supply futures

This paper presents a multi‐criteria analysis of Canadian electricity supply futures. Based on the results of Natural Resources Canada's Energy Technology Futures Project, a panel of energy and environmental experts was selected to evaluate alternative electricity supply futures according to several competing environmental, social and economic criteria. Electricity supply futures are explored from both sectoral and regional perspectives and the sensitivity of supply preferences examined in regard to changing electricity environment conditions. The results indicate a demonstrated preference for national electricity supply diversification, including improvements in fossil‐fueled electrical generation technologies and significant increases in the integration of renewable electricity sources. At the regional level, however, the analysis suggests significant dissent amongst provinces with regard to the nature of electricity diversification and future growth opportunities based on regional electricity resource siting.     

Impact of European Union development subsidies on Hungarian regions

Since the collapse of the communist system, regional inequalities have increased in Central European Countries. This paper describes an assessment of the impacts of regional development programmes on the development of Hungarian regions at a highly disaggregated level between 2002 and 2008. We construct a multi-dimensional composite indicator to estimate the overall development of rural regions and capture social, economic and environmental dimensions. The impacts of rural development programmes were investigated through counterfactual analysis in combination with Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences approaches. There has been considerable variation with increasing concentration in the level of subsidies distributed during the analysed period. From a policy perspective, the results are disappointing. Irrespective of the subsidy measures or methodology employed, the impact of the former is very close to zero or non-significant. Our findings cast serious doubt on the effectiveness of development policy and the long-run convergence of European regions.     

Improving Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies for Integrated Coastal Zone Management: an Approach from South Australia

The global concern about human-induced climatic change and its potential effect on sea-level has dominated the debate on coastal vulnerability, particularly since a common assessment methodology was developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1991. There have been numerous attempts to use or adapt this methodology but the focus has remained on sea-level rise as the single most important issue for coastal vulnerability. This paper presents a revised and more holistic coastal vulnerability assessment methodology which incorporates spatial and temporal scales relevant to the predicted impacts of climatic change and current human-induced hazards. Three studies in contrasting coastal environments of South Australia demonstrate that there are significant regional variations in sea-level response, human-induced hazards and local planning issues and that these may present a greater immediate threat than the possibility of sea-level rise.     

IMPACT OF RIGIONAL FACTORS ON PRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT. The regional production environment in China is decomposed into five regional factors: education endowment, foreign direct investment, agglomeration, producer's market accessibility, and consumer's market accessibility. The impacts of these regional factors on the Chinese machinery building industry and food manufacture industry are estimated across 30 regions. The estimates are highly significant and show that these regional factors substantially affect regional productivity. Across regions and over time, the capital return rate is positively related to the ratio of the total regional factor impact to the wage rate.     

Capital Assistance for Small Firms: Some Implications for Regional Economic Welfare

This paper analyzes the role of finance capital in regional economic development. A cost‐benefit approach is invoked in order to estimate the welfare impacts of a regional loan and guarantee program for small firms in Israel. Program‐created employment is treated as a benefit and an employment account that separates net from gross employment, is presented. An estimate of net wage benefits is then derived. This involves adjusting wages across different earnings classes in order to account for the variation in opportunity costs of labor at different levels. The estimation of costs includes the opportunity costs of capital, administration, default, and tax‐raising costs. Results point to substantial regional welfare effects. We stress the need to account for changing regional economic structure in this kind of evaluation framework.     

WORKER DISPLACEMENT AND JOB-SEARCH: A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL IMPEDIMENTS TO REEMPLOYMENT*

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the human, and in turn the regional, consequences of industrial restructuring in the United States. Our methodology presumes that labor market outcomes of displaced workers can provide considerable information on the structural properties of local labor markets, and subsequently upon the capacity of such areas/regions to reemploy additional workers. The examination follows two steps. In the first, a multivariate model of reemployment likelihood is developed and subsequently estimated. Separate equations are obtained for various resons of the country, a disaggregation that permits one to identify how postdisplacement reemployment, and its determinants, vary systematically across space. In the second step, the above estimates are decomposed into two elements, one of which is reflective of regional structural conditions. Based upon this methodology and estimates obtained in the first step, regions of the country are compared as to magnitude of their structural economic problems, and thus as to their capacity to gainfully reemploy additional workers displaced by plant closure or relocation.     

Developing Direct Displacement-Based Procedures for Simplified Loss Assessment in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering

Various loss assessment methodologies have been proposed and developed over the past decades to provide risk assessment on a regional scale. There is an increasing need, however, to provide engineers with practical tools for building-specific loss assessment. Recently, progress has been made towards probabilistic loss models such as the PEER framework. However, as comprehensive probabilistic methodologies could be too complex for practicing engineers, this article presents a simplified probabilistic loss assessment methodology that builds on a direct displacement-based framework. The methodology is tested via examination of two RC frame buildings and encouragingly shows similar results to the PEER methodology.     

THE OVERALL EFFECT OF AUTOMOBILE TRANSPORTATION ON THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

The aggregate effects of a variety of impacts generated by motor transport on the natural environment in the Upper Oka River basin are examined (through factor analysis) and maps of roadside pollution intensity are generated. The two factors identified, representing the effects of higher-order and local roads, respectively, provide a basis for regionalization of the Upper Oka basin according to the impacts generated by automobile traffic. The pattern of regional impacts identified, in turn, provides the basis for policy recommendations on how to reduce the level of roadside pollution and minimize other negative environmental impacts of road transport (translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005).     

Territorial Impact Assessment of European Draft Directives—The Emergence of a New Policy Assessment Instrument

European Union directives, along with their transposing arrangements in EU member states, can have unanticipated and sometimes undesirable impacts on certain regions and places. These include impacts on the use of space (e.g. new infrastructure or sprawl), governance, and on wider social, economic or environmental dimensions. Although ex-ante assessment of the potential impacts of EU initiatives has been carried out since 2002 through the European Commission's Impact Assessment procedure and also through national equivalents in some member states, important impacts are still overlooked, frequently because of their territorially heterogeneous nature within and between EU member states. This paper presents the results of the ESPON EATIA research project, in which a new territorial impact assessment methodology was developed for national and regional administrations in EU member states in order to inform their national positions during the negotiation of European draft directives and potentially other policy proposals.     

EMU versus the regions? Regional convergence and divergence in Euroland

There is currently considerable interest in and debate overthe impact of increasing European economic and monetary integration(EMU) on the regions of the EU. Opinion is sharply divided overwhether EMU is leading to regional economic convergence or regionaleconomic divergence. This paper examines the theoretical argumentsand empirical evidence for these opposing views, and presentssome additional analysis of patterns of regional productivitytrends and employment growth over the period 1975–98.The picture that emerges is a complex one: whilst worker productivityshows only very weak convergence across the EU regions (a processwhich halted altogether after the mid-1980s), regional employmentgrowth has been sharply divergent. Although there is littlesupport for the claim that EMU will lead to regional convergence,these findings suggest that until much more detailed investigationof the specific impacts on particular types of region is undertaken,the regional implications of EMU will remain a contentious issue.     

Generation of Multiple Earthquake Accelerograms Compatible with Spectrum Via the Wavelet Packet Transform and Stochastic Neural Networks

The principal purpose of this article is to present a novel methodology based on wavelet packet transform techniques and stochastic neural networks to generate more artificial earthquake accelerograms from available data, which are compatible with specified response spectra or the design spectra. The proposed method uses the decomposing capabilities of wavelet packet transform on earthquake accelerograms, and the learning abilities of stochastic neural network to expand the knowledge of the inverse mapping from response spectrum to coefficients of wavelet packet transform of earthquake accelerogram. This methodology results in a stochastic ensemble of wavelet packet transform coefficients of earthquake accelerograms and, they are used to the generate accelerograms applying the inverse wavelet packet transform. Finally, an interpretive example is presented which uses an ensemble of recorded accelerograms to train and test the neural network, aiming at the demonstration of the method effectiveness.     

Regional polycentricity: an indicator framework for assessing cohesion impacts of railway infrastructures

Territorial cohesion has become one of the main objectives in transport planning. This has fostered the development of assessment methodologies to quantitatively estimate the territorial impact of major transport infrastructures, which are particularly scarce at the intra-regional level. Linked to cohesion, polycentricity has been defined as the best spatial configuration to achieve balanced regions where population and opportunities are distributed among several entities linked by functional relationships. This paper aims to present a methodology to estimate these impacts based on the use of a new regional composite polycentricity indicator. The proposed indicator is tested by comparing the effects of conventional and high-speed railway (HSR) alternatives in the territorial system of a northern region of Spain. This quantitative assessment is a ranking tool for prioritizing rail network alternatives in terms of achieving the most balanced territory, which is especially relevant in countries where HSR networks follow cohesion goals. Our results show that new HSR links should only be complementary to regional railway services, and that the suppression of secondary lines should be avoided if a reduction in polarization is to be achieved.     

西藏坚塞颇章宫的结构计算分析

本研究以全国重点文物保护单位西藏罗布林卡三大宫殿之一的坚塞颇章宫为实例,分析藏式古建筑的结构特点,探讨计算分析方法,并针对静力荷载工况和地震组合工况下的结构性能进行了讨论。本研究区别于以往藏式结构的研究方法,主要在于:在计算分析中将墙体建入整体结构模型,考虑墙体对结构的影响;考虑墙体和木柱的“收分”造型的影响;将楼板和屋面的密布木檩等刚度转化为单向板考虑;同时考虑构件已存的变形缺陷影响。计算结果表明:西藏坚塞颇章宫在静力荷载工况作用下,整体状态良好,梁柱墙及节点均满足承载力要求;在地震组合工况作用下,部分柱和墙不满足抗震承载力要求。在地震作用下,该建筑刚度较小的木结构构件首先发生振动。结构薄弱部位是中部四根二层通高木柱。这四根通高木柱长细比较大,刚度较小,一旦发生较大的变形,将直接影响整体结构安全。木柱与墙体之间的变形差异较大,两者变形协调性较差。此外,存在变形缺陷的中部通高木柱所在梁柱节点的抗震承载力不满足要求,应注意加强防护。研究涉及的计算分析方法及相关计算结论对藏式建筑结构的深入研究具有重要的参考价值。