Alternative Complexities: The Archaeology of Pastoral Nomadic States

Almost a century of systematic anthropological research on pastoral nomads has produced significant data and theory for understanding these mobile societies. Substantially less attention has been devoted to complex sociopolitical organization among pastoral nomadic groups and, in particular, to the large-scale polities referred to as nomadic confederations, states, or sometimes empires. This article reviews established ideas for how and why complex organization emerged among nomadic groups and then considers these ideas in the context of recent archaeological theory on statehood and new material evidence for pastoral nomadic prehistory. Revised conceptions of both the state and the nomad suggest that pastoral nomadic polities represent alternative forms of complex organization that were different from classic Old World states but still quite complex in unexpected ways. These organizational differences resulted from the mobile and flexible politics practiced among herding peoples and gave rise to regional polities based on spatial networking, distributed authority, and innovations in transport and exchange.     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

The Nomad as State Builder: Historical Theory and Material Evidence from Mongolia

Theory on nomadic political complexity has largely been based on twentieth century ethnography and numerous historical accounts of the military confederations of pastoral nomads. Over the past two decades, archaeologists have increasingly used material evidence to evaluate ideas about nomadic polities and have added indigenous and local-scale perspectives to an understanding of nomadic political process in many regions across the Old World. One of these is Mongolia, a major center of nomadic state and empire formation, where archaeologists have recently focused attention on an early regional polity that arose at the end of the first millennium BC and is known as the Xiongnu (also Hsiung-nu) state. This paper synthesizes the latest archaeological research on the Xiongnu state in order to evaluate historical models that explain state emergence among nomads on the far eastern steppe. The material record from Mongolia adds the detail and resolution needed to refine existing explanations for Xiongnu state emergence.      

China's Demographic and Urban Trends for the 21st Century

This paper assesses remarkable and far-reaching changes under way as China enters the 21st century. Among the most significant are the rapid decline in fertility and birth rates, leading to a slowdown in the rate of population growth and a reduction in the growth rate of the labor force. This occurs against the backdrop of continuing structural shift in the economy from a rural-based economy to one increasingly urban-based with growing employment in manufacturing and services. Oshima's conceptual framework for the demographic and industrial transition in Asia is invoked to help explain conditions of change in China. Urbanization proceeds in parallel with these economic changes, and a key feature of transition will be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes. The regional pattern of urbanization will proceed at different rates, with coastal regions advancing most rapidly owing to stronger linkages to the global economy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O10, O18. 3 figures, 6 tables, 36 references.     

Historic settlements and pastoralism in the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau: towards a comparison

Historic settlement processes of, respectively, the Northern Sámi and Western Tibetan pastoralists have so far not been subjected to any comparative social science analyses. This study contributes to such a conceptual platform, drawing on the constructs dwelling, settlement, herding unit, pastoral landscape and the labour–animal–pasture triangle. Ethnographic and archival evidence of transitions from sedentary/semi-sedentary to full-fledged pastoralist societies and transitions from a pastoral adaptation to sedentary and semi-sedentary life are analysed and debated in light of the influential theoretical proposition of a categorical difference between a nomad’s and a farmer’s dwelling. At the core of this, comparative inquiry is two highly dynamic pastoral herding societies. It is argued that a comparative approach to the study of settlements requires a theoretical and analytical reframing – informed by a more adequate comprehension of the dwelling–settlement nexus. This preliminary scrutiny of dwelling designs and settlement practices of Sámi and Tibetan pastoralists indicates that nomads in both regions internalized and activated different spatial models and inventively mediated between different spatial models according to seasonal or irreversible shifts of leaving the nomadic adaptation altogether. Further rigorous empirical inquiry into accommodation, innovation and possible failures to mediate gaps in the making/remaking of dwellings and settlements are called for.     

Demographic Disequilibrium in Early Twentieth Century Thailand: Falling Mortality, Rising Fertility, or Both?

Estimates of Thai crude birth and death rates date from 1920 when the former was around 20 per thousand higher than the latter, implying natural increase of 2 percent per annum. Such disequilibrium cannot have been the norm over the long term historical past, when population growth must have been comparatively slow. This paper explores the bases for likely past relative equilibrium between Siamese birth and death rates, then seeks to explain the disequilibrium apparent by 1920. Classic demographic transition theory postulates initially high birth and death rates, this equilibrium eventually being broken by falling mortality. In Thailand, however, there is likely to have been both significant mortality decline and appreciable fertility increase after 1850, as the virtual elimination of indigenous warfare, rapid growth of the export rice economy and the demise of slavery and corvée labour created a new domestic environment. Characterized by more dispersed, often frontier, settlement, this environment was unprecedentedly sedate and settled, afforded ordinary households a previously unknown level of control over their resources of labour, and generated optimism about prospects for the next generation.     

The demographic transition: model and reality

Observed exponential population growth curves are short-term parts of a logistic or S-curve in demography or a product-cycle curve in technology. All human populations have the ability to adjust their rates of growth, a fact recognized by the demographic transition model. The acceleration of world population growth that began after 1650 and became conspicuous after 1850 was largely confined to industrialized countries of European culture until after World War II, when the S-curve passed the inflection point. Many signs indicate that the decline in growth rates may become striking in the 1980s or 1990s. The demographic transition agrees with the logistic curve, and since the ultimate carrying capacity of the Earth is limited, represents an intelligent adaptation. The industrial countries with the longest statistical records, such as Sweden and Finland, evidence early efforts to control fertility. The demographic transition in Sweden lasted from 1815 to 1930 and occurred without government interference. A question for postindustrial western society is whether birth rates will be adjusted to the rising death rates expected as the population ages. Birth and death rates in most formulations of the demographic transition model are typical of Western Europe at the start of the transition process but are much too low for most countries of the world. Japan's demographic transition and that of several other Asian countries have occurred much more rapidly than those of Western Europe and have demonstrated not only that the demographic transition model was applicable but that the time span could be shortened by a factor of about 10 when government policy was substituted for spontaneous development. The Indian experience however shows that the shortening of the transition cannot be imposed from above. The demographic transition is well on its way in most of Asia and Latin America, but Africa and the Muslim countries of Asia have so far done little to restrain their high fertility. It may be concluded that the actual form of the demographic transition is influenced by the point of departure and by how and when it takes place.     

THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

Nomadism in the Modern World

A Soviet specialist on the economic geography of Afghanistan and the arid zone examines contemporary processes characteristic of nomadism: the changing relationships between nomadic and settled populations and the pressures that induce nomads to adopt a settled mode of life. The gradual transformation of the nomadic economy is viewed as historically inevitable, but the problems involved in the settling process vary in different regions and depend to a large extent on the physical and economic setting of the region.     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

Were Women Present at the Demographic Transition? Questions from a Feminist Historian to Historical Demographers

This essay identifies some of the deficiencies in discussions about fertility decline that bridge the gap between feminist historians and historical demographers. The author suggests that women are portrayed in the historical demographic literature as lacking decision-making ability. The author emphasizes that women are viewed in the literature as reproductive resources in a national context or statistical entities in quantitative analysis rather than as active and informed participants in reproductive decision-making. The author points out that the concept of fertility decline itself identifies reproduction with a biological universe unrelated to issues of social change. Since the concept of demographic transition was introduced in the 1950s, it has been criticized for its false sense of universalism about a complex set of social relations. Princeton University's European Fertility Project is criticized by David Levine as describing "large-group behavior at the expense of familial experience." Levine uses the couple as the primary unit of analysis rather than region, but ignores, as pointed out by Jay Winter and Wally Seccombe, that the changing position of women and changing marital relations are key to fertility decline. Fertility discourses at the turn of the century focused on the decline in racial dominance, class differences in fertility, and women's selfishness in taking control of their bodies. Thereafter, there was a shift from eugenics and biologism to medical sciences, statistics, and social sciences and policy. The long period of historical invisibility of women is now being reworked by scholars such as McNicholl, who recognize the different interests of men and women in families. It is argued by Anthony Gibbons that lesbian couples may be pioneers in clearly separating their reproductive capacities from their sexuality, a direction that heterosexuals may be approaching.     

Pastoralism and Land‐Tenure Change in Kenya: The Failure of Customary Institutions

Until recently, the Pokot in the highlands of the Baringo area in Kenya have practised semi‐nomadic pastoralism. Today they are rapidly sedentarizing and in many areas suitable for farming, they are adopting rain‐fed agriculture. As a result of these dynamics, claims to individual property on de facto communal rangelands have arisen, and to such an extent that they seriously threaten the peace of the community. This article explores the conflicts that emerge in the transition from common property to private tenure. Using locally prominent land disputes as exemplary cases, it focuses on the role of traditional gerontocratic authorities in the attempt to resolve a growing number of land disputes; on the emerging power of patrilineal clans and local elites in the enforcement of access to land; and on the incompetence of government agencies to intervene. The failure of customary institutions to ensure land tenure security leads to a situation in which women and marginalized actors in particular are threatened with displacement, and in which most local actors want the state to intervene and establish formal property rights.     

早期游牧文化起源问题探析

以整个欧亚草原为视角,对比资料相对丰富且具有代表性的内蒙古东南部、萨彦-阿尔泰地区和黑海北岸三个地区畜牧向游牧转变期的材料,对早期游牧起源问题提出自己的一些看法。研究表明,公元前8世纪以前这三个地区都存在自身特色明显、畜牧业发达的遗存,但其中只有萨彦-阿尔泰地区可能已经转变成游牧经济,而内蒙古东南部和黑海地区在同时期可能还没有进入真正的游牧社会。欧亚草原地区各地早期游牧的起源不是同步的,也不是一条直线发展的,最早的游牧很有可能出现在远离发达农业文明且畜牧业发达的草原地带,而与发达农业文明毗邻且与之关系密切的地区游牧则产生的晚一些。     

对搞好农牧区“广播电视村村通”工程的几点认识

“广播电视村村通”工程是农牧区广播电视事业发展的载体,是解决边远山区农牧民群众看不到电视、听不到广播难题的“民心工程”。要因地制宜,探索建立农牧区广播电视公共服务体系,搞好“广播电视村村通”工程建设。     

On the Subject of Historical Geography (Landscape and Ethnos,III)

The author develops a methodology of historical geography revolving around the relationship between an ethnos, or ethnic community, and the “encompassing landscape.” He finds that under the conditions of the nomadic stockherding peoples of the steppe, where this relationship is most clearly expressed, the nomads become an inseparable part of the landscape, together with plant and animal life.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Female Demographic Disadvantage in India 1981–1991: Sex Selective Abortions and Female Infanticide

Using evidence from a number of sources (including the 1981 and 1991 censuses of India, prior research, and NGO reports), this article examines whether bias against girl children persists during periods of development and fertility decline, whether prenatal sex selection has spread in India as elsewhere in Asia, and whether female vs. male child mortality risks have changed. The authors present estimated period sex ratios at birth (SRBs) calculated by reverse survival methods along with reported sex ratios among infants aged 0 and 1, as well as sex ratios of child mortality probabilities (q5), from the two censuses. The findings show an increase in ‘masculine’ SRBs and persistent (or even worsening) female mortality disadvantage, despite overall mortality decline, due to selective neglect and the spread of female infanticide practices in some areas. Research and reports indicate the increasing use of prenatal sex selection in some regions. In India, preference for sons appears to be undiminished by socio-economic development, which interacts with cultural sources of male bias. The increased masculinity of period SRBs in some areas, together with persistent excess female child mortality and female infanticide, creates a ‘double jeopardy’ for girl children. Legislation curbing prenatal sex determination and policy measures addressing societal female devaluation have had little impact, suggesting that female demographic disadvantage is unlikely to improve in the near future.     

The Early Bronze Age funerary archaeological landscape of western Ja'alan: results of three seasons of investigation

This paper presents the results of three seasons of investigations in the western part of Ja'alan in the southern al‐Sharqyiah Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman. The results highlight the importance of this part of Ja'alan during the Early Bronze Age (EBA), particularly the Hafit period and provide us with important information about the funerary archaeological landscape during this period. The results also reveal important aspects of landscape utilisation and occupation during this time and add to our knowledge of the cultural and economic facets of the earliest Bronze Age societies. The distribution of tombs in the landscape suggests that they were constructed by nomadic or semi‐nomadic pastoral groups that shifted from one location to another in search of grazing for their livestock. The availability and seasonality of natural resources such as water, pasture and game made it necessary for them to mark their tribal territory with their funerary structures.