基于GIS的中国省际人口迁移流的空间特征分析

文章基于中国第五、六次人口普查与2005年1%人口普查数据资料,采用流数据分析方法,运用GIS空间分析技术,选用省际人口迁移的最大联系线、最大迁出流、最大迁入流、期望线、迁移效率、粗迁移率等方法系统地研究了我国1995-2010年间省际迁移的时空动态特点及其区际联系。结果表明:全国省际人口迁移的流动性不断增强,东部地区更明显;省际最大人口迁出与迁入流反映了中国省际区域间空间相互作用整体框架,全国大致可以分为3个人口吸引片区和5个辐射片区;省际最大净迁移流主要分布在东南沿海地区,中、西部地区分布较少,其空间分布与各省的MEI_(i)指数密切相关。     

基于村域微尺度的人口流动类型空间分异及作用机理——以云南玉龙县为例

村域微尺度人口流动过程对县级单元就近城镇化发展、小城镇发展和新型农村社区建设等方面影响凸显.以云南玉龙县为研究区域,以行政村为基本空间单元,深入剖析人口流动村域类型空间分异特征,识别人口流动村域类型空间分异的关键影响因素及其作用机制.研究表明:①玉龙县村域人口流动特征呈现明显的空间分异,具体表现在人口流动强度和人口流动...     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

1995-2010年中国省际人口迁移态势与空间格局演变——基于社会网络分析的视角

采用第五次人口普查、2005年人口抽样调查和第六次人口普查数据,基于社会网络分析的视角,研究了省级尺度下中国人口迁移态势与空间格局演变特征。结果显示:(1)1995-2010年间,中国人口迁移规模迅速增大,省际间人口迁移规模差异明显;上海、浙江人口迁入率显著上升,河南、安徽人口迁出率显著上升。(2)北京、上海、安徽、四川等13省是我国人口迁移网络的核心节点,人口迁移网络表现出中心性、收敛性和地区非均衡性特点。(3)京津地区、长三角地区、广东是我国主要人口辐合流场,安徽、四川、河南、湖南等中部省份是我国主要人口辐散流场。研究表明,不同地区的人口迁移有显著的空间异质性,各地应根据自身人口迁移趋势及在全国人口迁移网络中角色,科学制定区域人口政策与经济社会发展规划。     

A note on specification of climate variables in models of population migration

"In the literature on population migration, increasing attention has been devoted to quality-of-life factors. Measures of temperature (as proxies for climate) have frequently been employed in empirical work regarding the determinants of population migration decisions. A wide range of such specifications have been used, most of which imply restrictions on the preferences of migrants. In this paper, a variety of temperature variable specifications are analyzed and interpreted. Statistical tests for nested and nonnested hypotheses are used to compare and choose among the various specifications." The model is used to analyze interstate migration in the 48 contiguous states of the United States for the period 1975-1980.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

Alan Wilson – contributions to research on population and migration

ABSTRACT

This article reviews Alan Wilson's research on population and migration in the 1970s and the 2010s, which supplements his principal contribution - mathematical modelling of urban and regional systems. In the 1970s, drawing on input-output models of economies and working with Philip Rees, Wilson established the accounting basis for Andrei Rogers' multi-regional projection model, adding international migration. Innovative methods were developed to complete demographic accounts, where there were data gaps. In the 2010s, working with Adam Dennett, Wilson systematized methods for estimating migration flows between regions in Europe, employing his family of spatial interaction models. The key aim of both research strands was to ensure that no information was ignored to ensure consistency in population and migration models. The influence of Wilson's contributions to research on population and migration is traced through a survey of subsequent research.     

POPULATION ANALYSIS ON THE MICROCOMPUTER: A SYSTEM OF SOFTWARE PACKAGES

This paper describes a system of versatile software packages that has been developed by the author for population analysis on IBM-compatible microcomputers using PC or MS DOS. The series includes programs for the production of life tables, the analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in mortality, population projections, stationary-state population simulations and demographic planning, cohort survival estimates of net migration, and the analysis of migration matrices. Each of the programs in the series is discussed in terms of its principal analytical features, associated conceptual and methodological issues, and potential applications. The programs are intended for use both as basic research and planning tools and as instructional aids in university-level courses. The programs and related documentation are available on a set of four 360K diskettes.     

Demographic Modeling of the Geography of Migration and Population: A Multiregional Perspective

This article focuses on the development and evolution of migration and population redistribution modeling within the spatial context of multiregional demography. It begins in 1965, when the state-of-the-art consisted largely of ideas and techniques imported from other disciplines (regression analysis, gravity models, Markov chains, and matrix cohort-survival population projection models) and then continues on to tell the story of multiregional demography, its evolution and emergence as a fully developed paradigm for studying the spatial dynamics of migration and population redistribution and, more recently, its approach for estimating the necessary migration input measures from inadequate data.     

The determinants of labor migration in Egypt

The factors which affect individual decisions with regard to geographic movement in Egypt are examined and the magnitude in which each factor exerts its influence on aggregate geographic labor supply adjustments is estimated. The spatial unit used in the study is the administrative region, of which there are 25. No effort is made to esimate the impact which migration has had on the origin or destination region. The migrant will presumably choose that destination which, given his information, the migrant thinks will be best. The model which is employed attempts to explain gross interregional migration without the explicit introduction of an individual decision function. Rather, migration is related to certain aggregate proxy variables. Among the independent variables employed in the analysis are (origin and destination) income, education, urbanization, and population. The other explanatory variable used is the distance between region i and region j. The migration measure employed refers to cumulative male migration which occurred prior to 1960; the independent variables are defined for a given point in time (1960). The independent variables explain a reasonably large percentage of the variance in migration between regions in Egypt. All variables were significant at the 5% level or better. The findings indicate that distance acts as an important impediment to migration. Migration is away from low wage and toward high wage regions, which may have contributed to a narrowing of regional wage differentials. Migrants are attracted to regions which have large populations and to regions which have a large percentage of urban to total population. A tendency exists for migrants to come from regions with large populations. There is also some tendency for migrants to come from regions which have a relatively large urban population. Migrants do not appear to come from regions with high educational levels.     

流动人口居留稳定性的群体分异与空间格局

利用2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文分析了流动人口居留稳定性的总体特征、群体分异和空间差异性,并对流动人口居留稳定性的影响因素进行了探讨。结果表明：①我国跨市流动人口在当前城市的平均居住时间约为5年,新生代流动人口的居留稳定性与老一代并没有显著差异,从事工业行业的流动人口居留稳定性明显低于各类服务业从业者;②省内流动人口的居留稳定性低于省际流动人口,且有更大的可能离开当前城市,转向省际流动;③城市流动人口的规模和居留稳定性在空间格局和影响因素方面均存在明显差异,虽然收入水平和就业机会依然是吸引流动人口的主要因素,但公共服务、住房市场和环境等城市宜居性因素对提高流动人口的居留稳定性更为重要。     

基于腾讯迁徙大数据的长三角城市群春运人口流动时空特征

开展城市群人口流动研究对促进区域人口有序流动和城市群协同发展具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。本文基于腾讯迁徙大数据，运用GIS空间统计和K-shell分解等方法，从人口流动总量、位序、时序和网络层级等方面，对我国长三角城市群2018年春运期间的人口流动特征进行系统研究。结果表明：①长三角城市群春运期间大规模的“返乡流”和“返城流”呈现明显的对称性，并分别于除夕和第一个工作日达到最高峰。②经济发展水平相对较高的上海、苏州、杭州等为劳动力输入型城市，而经济发展水平相对较低的盐城、安庆和滁州等为劳动力输出型城市。③长三角城市群内部人口流动网络具有明显的层级特征，其中上海和杭州是人口辐射核心城市，上海-合肥、上海-南京、上海-杭州等是人口流动的主体路径；空间上东部-西部横向人口流动最为频繁，大体呈现“Z”字形。     

Evaluating Tobler's Migration Vector Fields

In the past decade Tobler has provided an innovative cartographic presentation of migration flows. The central theme of this research has been to utilize detailed migration data to reveal the underlying structures of migration flows. Even though the analyses are not explanatory models of migration exchanges, the application of these techniques to migration flows over time and across different spatial scales provides a visual generalization of often extremely complex flows. The application of his techniques at two spatial scales for the Netherlands illustrates both the strengths and weaknesses of migration force fields for the analysis of migration.     

加拿大人回发展与人回迁移

本文简析加拿大人口发展与人口迁移过程,以及人口迁移对加拿大人口增长、种族、语言构成、人口分布及未来人口增长的影响。     

Internal migration in the countries of Asia: levels,ages and spatial impacts

ABSTRACT

Internal migration, the movement of people between localities and regions within a country, has resulted in a significant redistribution of national populations. Past cross-national studies have been impeded by a lack of data and comparable metrics upon which to base comparisons. This paper examines internal migration in 30 Asian countries utilising a global dataset and a novel suite of measures devised in the IMAGE project. Three aspects of internal migration are explored: overall intensity, age patterns, and spatial impacts. Comparisons reveal that internal migration intensities, while on average lower than in other regions, are highly variable across countries. Migration peaks at earlier ages and is concentrated into a narrower age band than in other parts of the world. Analysis of spatial impacts highlights the contribution of migration to urbanisation, but a comparison of current trends against lifetime migration data also reveals the impact of historical events and government policies on national migration systems. Wide variation in key dimensions of migration among Asian countries reflects a diversity in national circumstances. The way forward lies in further in-depth country studies building on the common analytic framework articulated in this study.     

The role of equilibrium and disequilibrium in modeling regional growth and decline: a critical reassessment

ABSTRACT. The assumption of interregional equilibrium in migration research has recently been attacked. At issue is the motivation for on-going migration if rents and wags accurately compensate for spatial amenity variations; but if rents and wages fail to accurately compensate potential migrants, then amenity valuations must be flawed. We here show that arguments supporting substantial disequilibrium in the US. economy are unconvincing. The substantive issues are then clarified by a model which allows for both equilibrium and disequilibrium migration. We conclude that intertemporally systematic migration stems predominantly from equilibrium forces.     

Importing and exporting spatial needs: A Dutch approach1

The increasing demand for space determines much of the approach to spatial planning in countries with a high population density like the Netherlands. In the next three decades more land will be needed for housing, work, traffic, leisure, nature and water. There is only one sector that will yield land: agriculture. The Dutch Minister of Spatial Planning has presented six intervention strategies to cope with the increasing demand for space: (1) priority setting; (2) export spatial needs; (3) reduce the need for space in accordance with policy; (4) intensify land use; (5) combine spatial needs; (6) transform spatial structures and buildings. Spatial planning in the Netherlands is becoming more and more geared to strategies 4, 5 and 6, which take the need for land as given. This paper seeks to explain that the first three strategies, and strategy 2 in particular, are also crucial for a country like the Netherlands, even though the policies associated with them would not generally be labelled spatial. For the spatial planner, however, the export of spatial needs is relevant as this determines the outcome of spatial planning to a large extent. This shall be illustrated by reporting on international residential migration, the use of leisure homes and second homes, international business migration and the restructuring of the agricultural sector. The Netherlands is not only exporting spatial needs, but also in the same time even imports needs at a larger scale, which puts spatial planning on a larger pressure. In the past the lack of space was solved by relinquishing land that was originally earmarked for water or nature. But the need for space for water and nature has increased recently and will continue to do so in the coming decades. This makes intervention strategy 2 even more relevant for the future. Spatial planners need to widen their horizons and include the import and export of spatial needs in their analyses.     

Requiem for the Net Migrant

Despite recent research that has demonstrated the clear superiority of a multiregional perspective in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration flows, many scholars continue to adopt the uniregional perspective that is forced to focus on net migrants, a nonexistent category of individuals. Net migration models are misspecified because the rates that they use confound changing migration propensities with changing population stocks. Moreover, they obscure regularities in age profiles of migration and thereby further misspecify the spatial dynamics generating observed settlement patterns. Thus, the use of the net migration rate as the dependent variable in explanatory models of migration can produce a misspecification of the fundamental relationships that are the subject of inquiry. This paper considers deficiencies of the net migration concept and illustrates them with numerical examples.     

Population geography

The author reviews recent changes in population research from a geographical perspective. "The deaths in 1990 of two of France's most distinguished demographers, Alfred Sauvy (1899-1990) and Jean Bourgeois-Pichat (1912-90)...seem an appropriate starting point from which to review progress in population research in the early 1990s....Relative to the lifespans and works of Bourgeois-Pichat and Sauvy, it is possible to discern progress in population studies as a whole and population geography in particular. Advances in technical aspects of measuring mortality, fertility and migration have been most marked, as have attempts to inter-relate these demographic processes. Progress towards explanation of population-related phenomena has been slower. Advances have not been towards building more sophisticated general theories, but towards new and more insightful forms of explanation." The author then summarizes other research literature on fertility, migration, and population subgroups. The geographical scope is worldwide.     

Heritage Recycled: migration and tourism as factors in the heritage of vernacular settlements

Since the 1980s Greece has been the destination of many Albanian migrants in search of work and better living conditions. The research on which this study is based examines the case of Santorini, a small Greek island which relies heavily on tourism and is currently in the front line of migration. This paper focuses on the relationship between migrants and space, by considering the interaction between migration, tourism and heritage. Heritage brings tourism flows, tourism generates migration through the demand for labour which cannot be met by locals, and migration helps to keep heritage alive because migrants occupy the old deserted settlements and also provide the means for the revitalisation of traditional ways of production. Through research in three different locations on the island, it is suggested that, contrary to the common public perception that migrants operate in a destructive way towards the spatial, social and economic environments, they actually contribute to their revitalisation.