THE CAUSES OF THE ASIAN FERTILITY DECLINE

The Asian demographic transition is treated as one aspect of the global Industrial Revolution, which started in the West but now involves the whole world. In fact, the multiplication of per capita income in Asia in the second half of the twentieth century has been the world's fastest. With the rise in female education, urban living and non-agricultural employment, as well as the mortality decline that began early in the twentieth century and government family planning programmes, fertility fell nearly everywhere from the 1960s presaging below-replacement fertility levels. The continent's macro changes are outlined and micro studies of the causes of fertility decline and the delay or forgoing of marriage are drawn from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea. It is concluded that marriages will be increasingly forgone or delayed and that most, perhaps all, ESCAP Asia will this century experience below-replacement fertility. The path followed is much more likely to resemble that of Mediterranean Europe than Northern Europe.     

China's Demographic and Urban Trends for the 21st Century

This paper assesses remarkable and far-reaching changes under way as China enters the 21st century. Among the most significant are the rapid decline in fertility and birth rates, leading to a slowdown in the rate of population growth and a reduction in the growth rate of the labor force. This occurs against the backdrop of continuing structural shift in the economy from a rural-based economy to one increasingly urban-based with growing employment in manufacturing and services. Oshima's conceptual framework for the demographic and industrial transition in Asia is invoked to help explain conditions of change in China. Urbanization proceeds in parallel with these economic changes, and a key feature of transition will be the growth of cities and towns of all sizes. The regional pattern of urbanization will proceed at different rates, with coastal regions advancing most rapidly owing to stronger linkages to the global economy. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O10, O18. 3 figures, 6 tables, 36 references.     

Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia

After a swift decline during the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, period fertility rates have either been stagnating or increasing in all countries of Central Asia. In this paper, I investigate the role of data artifacts, population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect in explaining fertility changes in Central Asia. The analysis is primarily based on comparison of fertility data from the vital registration system with estimates from other data sources. The results show that the recent changes to be real and not a result of data artifact. The most plausible explanations are to be found in the three other non-exclusive factors (population composition effect, economic context and shifting tempo effect) that contributed jointly and simultaneously to push up the period fertility rates in the region.     

Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum

This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in demographic transition theory and provide a conceptual framework for future studies.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

“少子化”与“老龄化”:马来西亚华人人口发展特点与趋势预测

论文基于历年马来西亚官方的统计数据,对当前"少子化"背景下马来西亚华人人口发展现状进行系统描述;在人口转变理论框架下对马来西亚华人人口比重下降这一现象进行归因分析;并利用人口队列预测方法预测分析马来西亚中长期人口发展状况。研究发现:由于较早开始人口转变进程,马来西亚华人具有低生育率、高老龄化程度等特征;人口转变进程中的族群"堕距",是当前华人人口比重下降的根本原因。伴随马来西亚各族群人口转变进程的推进,未来华人人口比例下降速度将逐步趋缓,但老龄化程度将快速提高。     

Pretransition marital fertility variation over time: was there deliberate control in England?

An important line of research concerning historical fertility patterns in currently developed countries of Europe has concluded that, prior to the fertility transition, marital fertility was essentially constant over time, and deliberate fertility control was virtually unknown. It has been argued that variations over time in overall fertility were largely the consequence of variations in nuptiality. Other researchers have challenged these views and present evidence for the existence of a significant minority of fertility controllers in pretransition populations. In this article, we find support for this second view and argue that (1) there was significant, non-random variation in marital fertility over time, prior to the transition; (2) in many cases, this variation in marital fertility was large relative to contemporaneous variations in nuptiality; and (3) in a substantial minority of the cases, the variation over time in pretransition marital fertility was so large that it is suggestive of deliberate fertility control. Thus, our findings question the view of fertility transition as an innovation in deliberate marital fertility control. While most of our evidence is based on data from England and Wales, we find corroboration of our key results in other European data.     

Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis

Population decline is a key contemporary demographic challenge. Previous work has measured the national extent of population decline, and we know that it is more acute in Japan and Eastern Europe and is set to accelerate across many industrialized countries. Yet, little is known about the population trajectories leading to current trends of depopulation and their underpinning demographic and contextual factors. To address this gap, we aim to identify and characterize the different trajectories of depopulation in Spain from 2000 to 2020 at the small area level using sequence analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, decomposition techniques, and multinomial logistic modeling. We show that while Spain recorded an overall 17.2% national population growth between 2000 and 2020, 63% of municipalities experienced depopulation. We identify six trajectories of population decline, with a well-defined northwest-south divide. These trajectories include mostly rural municipalities, but also certain small- and medium-sized cities. Natural decline comprises the main demographic component underpinning differences in the extent of depopulation across trajectories, and international migration plays an important role in explaining transitions to decline since the financial crisis of 2008. Small and old populations, and, to a lesser extent, remoteness from cities are key features characterizing areas of high decline.     

Demography and the extinction of European Neanderthals

Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and death rates, capable of modelling the population development under conditions of changing climate and prey availability, from the early appearance of Neanderthals in Europe about 260,000 years ago to their demise. Parameter variation studies are made for the parameters considered to have the highest uncertainty. Finally, the option of regional migration between northern, middle and southern Europe is added, in order to capture population movements away from a region in response to deteriorating or improving climate. This model accounts for population developments, including the re-population of the Middle and Northern regions of Europe during and after the warm Eem period. However, parameter choices that give plausible results during the initial 210,000 years also predict that the Neanderthals should have survived the latter part of the Weichselian ice age, despite competing for food with Modern Human newcomers during the last part of the period. The conclusion is that other reasons for extinction than climate or starvation must be sought.     

Quality turns in Nordic food: a comparative analysis of specialty food in Denmark,Norway and Sweden

ABSTRACT

This article compares the development of specialty food in Denmark, Norway and Sweden using a number of quantitative indicators as well as a qualitative analysis of government policy. The analysis shows that specialty food has increased in importance in all three countries over the last twenty years, but there are important differences in the kind of specialty food that has developed and the nature of government intervention and governance structures. Overall, Sweden appears to have the largest production of specialty food and drink and is particularly strong in organic production and consumption, farm processing and farm shops. Norway has a large number of products with protected origin and also leads in the number of farmers’ markets. Denmark lags behind the other countries on most indicators, but has witnessed the fastest growth in microbreweries over the last five years. Theoretically, the article challenges the ‘negative’ definition of specialty food as ‘non-industrial’ or ‘alternative’, and suggests a more nuanced approach. Empirically, it points towards the possible existence of a ‘Scandinavian model’ of specialty food governance with extensive interaction between central government, local government and private firms to stimulate the growth of specialty food.     

LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN SINGAPORE

Singapore's labour force participation rates are at high levels. Age-specific rates, especially of men, have approached those of developed countries. The current very low total fertility rate of 1.25 would have major implications for Singapore's labour supply and economy in a closed population. Multi-pronged approaches such as measures to increase fertility, increase labour force participation, and to augment the local workforce with migrants are discussed. In the context of Singapore's physical land constraint, continued growth in the labour force in the long term would be challenging. Future gross domestic product growth is likely to be more sustainable via labour productivity growth. Identifying new niche areas of growth and having a nimble and quality workforce would become more important than labour force growth.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

Hopes,dreams and anxieties: India's one-child families

While rapid fertility decline in India in the last two decades has received considerable attention, much of the discourse has focused on a decline in high parity births. However, this paper finds that, almost hidden from the public gaze, a small but significant segment of the Indian population has begun the transition to extremely low fertility. Among the urban, upper income, educated, middle class, it is no longer unusual to find families stopping at one child, even when this child is a girl. Using data from the India Human Development Survey of 2004–2005, we examine the factors that may lead some families to stop at a single child. We conclude that the motivations for this very low fertility are likely to be a more extreme form of those for low fertility rather than reflecting the qualitative change in ideologies and worldviews that is hypothesized to accompany very low fertility during the second demographic transition.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

Demographic Disequilibrium in Early Twentieth Century Thailand: Falling Mortality, Rising Fertility, or Both?

Estimates of Thai crude birth and death rates date from 1920 when the former was around 20 per thousand higher than the latter, implying natural increase of 2 percent per annum. Such disequilibrium cannot have been the norm over the long term historical past, when population growth must have been comparatively slow. This paper explores the bases for likely past relative equilibrium between Siamese birth and death rates, then seeks to explain the disequilibrium apparent by 1920. Classic demographic transition theory postulates initially high birth and death rates, this equilibrium eventually being broken by falling mortality. In Thailand, however, there is likely to have been both significant mortality decline and appreciable fertility increase after 1850, as the virtual elimination of indigenous warfare, rapid growth of the export rice economy and the demise of slavery and corvée labour created a new domestic environment. Characterized by more dispersed, often frontier, settlement, this environment was unprecedentedly sedate and settled, afforded ordinary households a previously unknown level of control over their resources of labour, and generated optimism about prospects for the next generation.     

A forgotten plague

Dysentery, or rödsot, as the disease was previously known in Sweden, continues to be a major scourge in developing countries. However, the disease has almost disappeared in the West. Very different circumstances prevailed before infectious diseases declined as some of the major causes of death during the 19th century. In that era, 10,000 people could die of dysentery in a single year in Sweden. The demographic consequences of dysentery in Sweden and the causes of the disease and its disappearance are discussed in this article. It is shown here that despite the devastating effects of dysentery epidemics, most government actions were targeted at cholera. Considerable regional and local differences are revealed as the disease is mapped over Sweden. Clusters of high mortality formed, and even in hard-hit Jönköping County some parishes were almost never affected. It becomes apparent that the outbreaks have been the result of complex interactions between different variables and have led to widespread disease of uneven and often epidemic proportions.

For the statistical analyses the digitized source material of the Demographic Data Base (DDB) at Umeå University has been used, containing statistical demographic data gathered from parishes from all over Sweden. Other sources drawn upon include published statistical data, reports from district medical officers, newspapers, parish registers, and maps.     

An empirical analysis of the effects of consanguineous marriages on economic development

In this study, development experiences toward economic development are investigated to provide an alternative analysis of economic development, human capital, and genetic inheritance in the light of consanguineous marriages. The countries analyzed in the study are discussed in accordance with consanguineous marriage practices and classified by their per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. A broad range of countries are analyzed in the study. Arab countries that experienced high rates of growth in their gross national income during the twentieth century but failed to fulfill adequate development measures as reflected in the growth in national income, countries undergoing transition from tight government regulation to free market democracy, and African nations that have experienced complications in the process of development show important differences in the process of economic development. It is shown that the countries that have reached high average development within the context of per capita GDP have overcome problems integral to consanguineous marriage.     

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AS A FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR CITIES IN EAST CENTRAL EUROPE

Contemporary cities in East Central Europe (ECE) represent a hybrid type of urban development which is still generally considered to be a special case and is only exceptionally referred to in the recently intensified debate over the European city. Our paper argues that such exclusion is short‐sighted because ECE cities face structural problems similar to those of their Western pendants. Therefore, the contextual frame of urban research needs to be widened and can no longer be restricted to post‐socialist transition. In this regard, one of the main challenges for future urban development will be the consequences of demographic change. Ageing, new patterns of fertility behaviour and more diversified household structures in line with the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) will have significant implications for urban structures and housing markets, as already known for Western Europe. The purpose of this paper is to work out new questions and hypotheses for future urban research with special respect to Polish and Czech cities. Besides West European experience, recent developments in eastern Germany are taken as a frame of reference, assuming that this specific transition case may, in many respects, be regarded as a forerunner for similar developments in its neighbouring countries.     

HOW FAST IS THE POPULATION AGEING IN CHINA?

Using adjusted 2000 population census data, this paper conducts projections of China's population up to 2050. Three fertility and four mortality scenarios yield 12 sets of results. Even though fertility is below replacement, China's population will continue growing for many years. One of the notable trends is the rapid ageing of the population. By the end of 2050, one-fifth to one-third of China's population will be aged 65 and over. The demographic dividend is expected to continue in next 10 to 20 years depending on future fertility which, in turn, is determined by changes in China's one-child policy. The Chinese government should be aware of all possible situations of population change, and particularly population ageing in the first half of the century, and be well prepared for all possible challenges that may arise.