Does Econometric Methodology Matter? An Analysis of Public Policy Using Spatial Econometric Techniques

A popular approach to examining the effects of public policy has been to rely on a spatial data sample of border counties as in Holmes (1998)—border counties from a sample of states that are used in conjunction with least‐squares estimation techniques in an attempt to isolate the policy impact while controlling for spatial dependence that often arises from latent or unobserved variables. This technique is in the spirit of control‐group methodologies from the laboratory sciences. This paper contrasts border‐county estimation results from Holmes' (1998) approach and those from a related methodology set forth in Holcombe and Lacombe (2003), with estimates from a spatial autoregressive model explicitly accounting for within‐state and between‐state public policy effects. As an illustration, the paper examines the effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Food Stamp payments on female‐headed households and female labor force participation using the three different methods.     

Evaluating Crash Risk in Urban Areas Based on Vehicle and Pedestrian Modeling

This article presents a method for investigating the spatial distribution of vehicle and pedestrian traffic crashes relative to the volume of vehicle and pedestrian movement in urban areas. This method consists of two phases. First, vehicle and pedestrian traffic volumes on the street network are modeled using a space syntax configurational analysis of the network, land use data, and observed traffic data. Second, crash prediction models are fitted to the traffic crash data, using negative binomial regression models and based on traffic volume estimates and street segment lengths. The method was applied in two areas in Tel Aviv, Israel, which differ in their morphological and traffic characteristics. The case‐studies illustrated the method's capability in identifying hazardous locations on the network and examining relative crash risks. The analysis shows that an increase in vehicle or pedestrian traffic volume tends to be associated with a decrease in relative crash risk. Moreover, the spatial patterns of relative crash risks are associated with the design characteristics of urban space: areas characterized by dense street networks encourage more walking, and are generally safer for pedestrians, while those with longer street segments encourage more driving, are less safe for pedestrians, but safer for vehicles.     

‘Islands within Islands?’ The Maldivian resort,between segregation and integration

Abstract

The Maldives resort islands are a type of tourist enclave subject to a dual form of borderization. The islands have an external border that coincides with each island’s coastline and with the limits of the private property of the resort; this border regulates the movement of tourists and locals. The islands also have an internal border that separates the outer edge of the island from the inner edge. The outer edge, which is supposed to represent the perfect landscape of the ‘tropical island,’ houses all of the tourist facilities, while the interior contains the structures dedicated to the metabolic activities of the resort. The frontline staff members and the tourists share the ‘dreamscape’ of the outer edge, whereas the maintenance workers live in the secluded space inside the island, where they are typically hidden from the sight of tourists by high walls, and their movement is usually restricted from staff designated areas to their location of work. For maintenance workers, these spaces, necessarily limited due to the small size of the coral islands, risk becoming ‘islands within islands.’ Recently, the Maldivian government has begun to promote projects and initiatives in support of territorial integration between the resorts and communities of neighboring islands. Thus, the outer limits of the resort islands are, today, more porous. Their internal borders, in contrast, remain very difficult to cross.     

中国边境入境旅游的客流演化态势及其动因分析——新疆内蒙云南三省区的比较研究

边境旅游是在具有特殊区位和文化环境的边境地区开展的旅游活动,是国际旅游的重要形式之一。本文选取2000-2009年中国陆地边境省州市相关统计数据,采用入境旅游市场占有率、旅游资源丰度、旅游开放度、边境贸易比重和距离指数5个重要指标,应用矩阵分析方法,在对我国三个省区边境旅游发展及客流演化态势进行比较的基础上,对边境入境旅游及其影响因素进行深入分析,结果发现:旅游资源丰度、区位条件、经贸发展水平、开放度、可进入性等因素是影响边境旅游规模和类型的主要影响因素,现阶段我国边境省区各州市的边境旅游发展受贸易驱动明显,旅游资源丰度对边境旅游中的观光入境旅游者有较大影响,边境旅游也遵循距离衰减规律。在此基础上提出对我国边境旅游发展的启示,以期为沿边省区发展边境入境旅游提供科学依据和参考。     

Buzz Kill: State Adoption of DUI Interlock Laws, 2005–11

Most states have adopted significant measures to reduce the incidence of driving under the influence (DUI) but a DUI death occurs about every 53 minutes; a significant portion of these accidents are the result of recidivist DUI drivers. A relatively new and novel way states can reduce DUI deaths from repeat offenders is to require offenders to install an interlock device on their vehicle, but not all states have adopted this measure. We explore whether the Policy Typology and Policy Diffusion Frameworks can help us understand the politics behind why some states have adopted interlock policies while others have not. Employing over‐time data from the American states our results suggest that the adoption of interlock laws is best explained by internal factors to the state and the adoption of interlock laws by neighboring states. In addition, the adoption of interlock laws is a form of incremental policymaking—states with existing DUI laws are more likely to adopt interlock policies. We conclude that interlock policies diffuse in a manner similar to other regulatory policies and that interlock policies should be categorized as protective regulatory policies rather than social regulatory policies.     

The Impact of Social and Psychological Factors on Car accidents in Kuwait

The objective of study was to identify select demographic, driving habits, aggressive driving, road rage and risk factors associated with involvement in road traffic accidents (RTAs) among young Kuwaiti drivers. Logistic linear regression tests these factors according to the Modified Youth Risk Behavior scales. The total sample of this study was 1619 Kuwaiti drivers, aged 18–30 years. The source for the sample consisted of self‐reported young drivers who were selected from high schools and universities in the six governorates in Kuwait. For the purposes of this study, the author defined cases (N=984) as drivers who reported being involved in a car crash during their lifetime. Controls (N=635) were identified as those drivers who were never involved in a car crash during the same period. The sample was selected during an eight‐month period, from November 2004 to June 2005. Logistic linear regression results showed that driving habits, aggressive driving, and road rage situations would result in high rates in sensation, anxiety and anger, which leads to risky driving behavior (e.g. drivers forcing a car off the road, deliberate obstruction, running red lights, running stop signs, and tailgating), which leads to involvement in traffic accidents.     

“绩效”二元视角下高速交通对旅游发展的影响及空间效应研究——以长三角地区为例

以长三角地区为研究对象,采用改进TOPSIS法和Super-SBM DEA模型分别测算高速交通优势度和旅游绩效,综合运用双变量LISA方法和空间面板杜宾模型,实证研究2005—2018年长三角高速交通对旅游绩效影响的空间效应及机理。结果表明:(1)2005—2018年,长三角高速交通优势度呈现“东高西低,中间高、南北两翼低”空间格局,且趋向相对均衡化态势。(2)旅游规模高值区集中于省会城市及高速交通干线附近;旅游效率高、较高值区沿“沪宁合—沪杭—杭甬”交通干线分布明显。(3)长三角高速交通对本地和邻近地区旅游规模、旅游效率均存在显著正向驱动效应;高速交通对旅游规模正向影响的直接和间接边际效应系数均大于旅游效率,这与高速交通的“双刃性”、“虹吸效应”及“错配效应”相关。(4)经济实力、旅游资源、产业机构高级化等对本地旅游绩效具有正向促进作用,而旅游资源、人力资本对邻近地区旅游绩效呈现负向外部性。     

Optimal Sampling Design for Variables with Varying Spatial Importance

It is often desirable to sample in those locations where uncertainty associated with a variable is highest. However, the importance of knowing the variable's value may vary across space. We are interested in the spatial distribution of Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI), a measure of the signal strength from a cell tower received at a particular location. It is crucial to estimate RSSI values accurately in order to evaluate the effectiveness of mayday systems designed for rapid emergency notification following vehicle crashes. RSSI estimation is less important for locations where the probability of a crash is low and where the likelihood of call completion is either close to zero or one. We develop a method for augmenting an initial spatial sample of RSSI values to achieve a high‐precision estimate of the probability of call completion following a crash. We illustrate the approach using data on RSSI and vehicle crashes in Erie County, NY.     

ACCOUNTING FOR NEIGHBORING EFFECTS IN MEASURES OF SPATIAL CONCENTRATION*

ABSTRACT A common problem with spatial economic concentration measures based on areal data (e.g., Gini, Herfindhal, entropy, and Ellison‐Glaeser indices) is accounting for the position of regions in space. While they purport to measure spatial clustering, these statistics are confined to calculations within individual areal units. They are insensitive to the proximity of regions or to neighboring effects. Clearly, since spillovers do not recognize areal units, economic clusters may cross regional boundaries. Yet with current measures, any industrial agglomeration that traverses boundaries will be chopped into two or more pieces. Activity in adjacent spatial units is treated in exactly the same way as activity in far‐flung, nonadjacent areas. This paper shows how popular measures of spatial concentration relying on areal data can be modified to account for neighboring effects. With a U.S. application, we also demonstrate that the new instruments we propose are easy to implement and can be valuable in regional analysis.     

INTEGRATION OF IMMIGRANTS,BRIDGING SOCIAL CAPITAL,ETHNICITY, AND LOCALITY

This paper analyses a uniquely detailed data set of social integration characteristics of immigrants belonging to four non‐native ethnic groups (i.e., Turks, Moroccans, Surinamese, and Antilleans) living in Dutch neighborhoods. It is well known that an individual's level of social integration is related to the ethnic composition and economic development of an immigrant's residential locality, as well as the generation of the immigrant. Yet, what is not known is whether the social and economic characteristics of adjacent or neighboring localities also influence an individual's level of social integration. Using a multilevel hierarchical analysis with spatial interaction effects, we examine the extent to which four social integration aspects of the bridging social capital of these immigrant groups are related to their ethnicity, their generation, their immediate locality, and the effects of the neighboring localities. Our findings regarding the effects of the ethnic concentration and economic development of the immediate locality along with the immigrant's generation broadly concur with existing studies. At the same time, however, we also find that the features of neighboring localities exert an additional influence on an individual's social integration over and above those related to the immigrant's generation and immediate locality. These additional spatial spillover effects are broadly in line with those associated with the immediate locality, but they are also sensitive to particular proxies for social integration which are employed. These spatial spillover effects on social capital and social integration have not been observed before.     

Risky Geographies: Teens,gender, and rural landscape in North America

Young Vermonters living along the Canadian border experience cultural, spatial and material marginalisation, as well as historically high rates of death due to alcohol‐related motor vehicle accidents. This research examines the relationship between teens' place in society, their material geographies in a rural setting, and the strategies they employ to create social opportunities and produce ‘cultural gateways’. As active cultural producers, young people, especially older boys, are successful in building socio‐spatial networks that extend beyond their local area, across the US–Canada border, and into Quebec bars. The research reveals that teens live in a highly gendered social environment, one that encourages risk‐taking for boys and closes down social opportunities for girls. This study opens up new directions for further research into the social and environmental conditions under which North American teens craft their lives in rural places.     

A Framework for Inserting Visually Supported Inferences into Geographical Analysis Workflow: Application to Road Safety Research

Road safety research is a data-rich field with large social impacts. Like in medical research, the ambition is to build knowledge around risk factors that can save lives. Unlike medical research, road safety research generates empirical findings from messy observational datasets. Records of road crashes contain numerous intersecting categorical variables, dominating patterns that are complicated by confounding and, when conditioning on data to make inferences net of this, observed effects that are subject to uncertainty due to diminishing sample sizes. We demonstrate how visual data analysis approaches can inject rigor into exploratory analysis of such datasets. A framework is presented whereby graphics are used to expose, model and evaluate spatial patterns in observational data, as well as protect against false discovery. Evidence for the framework is presented through an applied data analysis of national crash patterns recorded in STATS19, the main source of road crash information in Great Britain. Our framework moves beyond typical depictions of exploratory data analysis and transfers to complex data analysis decision spaces characteristic of modern geographical analysis.     

省际边缘区城市空间辐射范围研究——以陕甘宁蒙晋五省交界地区为例

合理的确定区域中城市的空间影响范围,是制定区域整体发展策略的重要依据,是协调区域中城市之间相互关系的前提。在总结国内外划分城市空间辐射范围指标研究的基础上,建立了陕甘宁蒙晋五省交界区域中九个城空间辐射范围能力的评价指标体系;运用主成分分析法测度榆林等九个城市的指标辐射能力分值;结合康弗斯模型和OVD、WVD方法,将城市的各项辐射力强度值作为每个城市点的权重,构建九个城市点集的加权Voronoi图,合理的划分出九个城市在理论上的空间辐射范围,并在图上表现出城市之间分界线的轨迹,以利于对城市空间辐射范围进一步的识别。     

Growth and Convergence in a Multiregional Model with Space–Time Dynamics. 多区域时空动态模型的增长与收敛

The goal of this article is to test four distinct hypotheses about whether the relative location of an economy affects economic growth and economic well‐being using an extended Solow–Swan neoclassical growth model that incorporates both space and time dynamics. We show that the econometric specification takes the form of an unconstrained spatial Durbin model, and we investigate whether the results depend on some methodological issues, such as the choice of the time span and the inclusion of fixed effects. To estimate the fixed effects spatial Solow–Swan model, we adjust the Arrelano and Bond (1991) generalized method‐of‐moments (GMM) estimator to deal with endogeneity not only arising from the initial income level, as in the basic model, but also from the initial income levels and economic growth rates observed in neighboring economies.     

Workers’ Compensation and State Employment Growth*

Abstract. Workers’ compensation reforms have been on the table in virtually every state over the last several years, and many states have launched comprehensive reforms. At least nine states undertook major reforms of their workers’ compensation systems in 2004 alone, and the reforms were driven largely by claims that higher workers’ compensation costs are driving away businesses and the employment that comes with them. This paper examines the relationship between workers’ compensation costs, as proxied by benefits/earnings, and employment across U.S. states and the District of Columbia from 1976 to 2000. Workers’ compensation costs are found to have a statistically significant negative impact on employment and wages, but the elasticities are very small, suggesting that workers’ compensation is not a likely cause of jobs woes in most states. Unemployment insurance appears to have an effect of similar magnitude. Medical cost inflation is found to be a significant factor in explaining movements in workers’ compensation costs over time.     

社区的邻里性本质：内涵、特征及其实践意义

社区作为社会与城市发展的践行单元,如何回归本质并形成可持续的驱动力,是社区发展的关键。基于相关研究总结,邻里性强调关系的联结、情感的认同与归属、内嵌着“我向”意识等,极具内化性特征,是社区本质的重要体现。为此,本研究结合广州15个社区的案例调研,通过因子分析法(EFA、CFA)来探究邻里性的因子结构,进而剖析现代城市语境下邻里性的深层内涵与特征,分析各类型社区的邻里性特征差异及可能的影响因素,回应相关的共同体本质理论,综合探讨邻里性的实践意义。研究总体认为,邻里性内含了“家园感”、“凝聚力”、“行动力”三大主因子,蕴含了丰富的内生驱动能量;社区应回归其邻里性本质,根据各类型社区的问题、特征与资源,培育社区自身的能量与资本,推动“内生驱动”式的良性发展。     

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SECTORAL VARIATIONS IN RETURNS TO EXTERNAL SCALE

ABSTRACT.  This paper reports results of spatially explicit analyses of external scale effects across a variety of sectors, including manufacturing. Using data from New England counties, earnings are found to exhibit increasing returns to urbanization in every sector. Returns to sectoral localization are mixed, however, with increasing returns in one sector, constant returns in five sectors, and decreasing returns in two sectors. External scale effects are fairly confined in their spatial extent, with only retailing and services particularly marked by spillover effects from neighboring counties.     

边境区位、边境区经济合作的理论与实践--以辽宁省-朝鲜边境地区经济合作为例

欧洲和北美的实践表明,边境地区经济合作具有推动经济全球化和区域经济一体化的作用,同时,经济全球化和区域经济一体化又促进了边境地区经济合作的发展。本文从边境区位的理论分析入手,探讨了边境区位再创造问题,并分析边境区位再创造与边境区经济合作的内在联系。最后,对辽宁省和朝鲜之间边境区经济合作做了实证研究。     

BORDERS AS BOUNDARIES TO FISCAL POLICY INTERACTIONS? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF POLITICIANS’ OPINIONS ON RIVALS IN THE COMPETITION FOR FIRMS

Studies of spatial policy interdependence in (local) public policies usually concentrate on the relations between jurisdictions within a single analyzed region, and disregard possible extraregional effects. However, the theoretical spatial statistics literature shows that biased estimates might emerge if spatial interactions extend beyond the boundaries of the available data (i.e., the boundary value problem). This paper empirically assesses the practical relevance of this concern by studying German local politicians’ assessments of their jurisdictions’ main competitors in the struggle to attract firms. We find that location near a border significantly undermines politicians’ perception that the fiercest competitive pressure derives from jurisdictions within their own state. This effect sets in about 20 km (10.2 km) from a national (international) border. These results indicate that nearest municipalities perceive each other as competitors regardless of the state or country where they are located, which has important implications for estimating spatial dependence models.     

Spatial-Temporal Spread of the AIDS Epidemic, 1982–1990: A Correlogram Analysis of Four Regions of the United States

We applied correlogram analysis to county-level AIDS data of four regions—the Northeast (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania), California, Florida, and Louisiana—for the period 1982–1990 to characterize the spatial-temporal spread of the AIDS epidemic. Correlograms computed from yearly incidence rates differ substantially among these four regions, revealing regional differences in the spatial patterns and intensity of AIDS spread. A general trend of increasing spread to rural America, however, can still be detected. Contagious spread was predominant in the Northeast throughout the nine-year period, whereas California was dominated by hierarchical spread through time. The spatial-temporal changes of AIDS incidence patterns were most drastic in Florida, where the correlograms show hierarchical spread in the early years and then contagious spread in the later years. As a representative region for most other states in the United States, Louisiana has low spatial autocorrelation and no definite spatial pattern of spread. Grouping data into three-year periods for states with low yearly incidence rates such as Louisiana should help identify the dominant trends for these states. The correlogram results could provide useful insights into the specification of spatial models for AIDS forecasting.