"Don't Go Changing to Try and Please Me": A Preference-Consistency Analysis on Trade Policy in the U.S. House

Trade voting in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1993 to 2001 provides an opportunity to move beyond examining the determinants of trade voting on single bills and to focus on the consistency members of Congress demonstrate in their trade preferences. We find that while a significant percentage of House members are consistent in their trade preferences during the time period, a surprising percentage of those members serving over the entire period are inconsistent, affecting important changes in U.S. trade policy. Ideological, partisan, and constituency- based factors prove significant cross-pressures on House members' trade preferences throughout the time period; however, we unearth differences in effects between the two parties. It is these cross-pressures that lead to inconsistent preferences among some legislators.     

Foreign Direct Investment and State Export Performance

Since the early 1980s, there has been widespread debate over the impacts of rising levels of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on the U.S. economy. A frequently noted, but little studied, issue within the debate is the impact of FDI on U.S. foreign trade, and particularly, on the foreign trade of U.S. regions. This study assesses the effects of FDI on the manufacturing export performance of U.S. states during the period from 1980 to 1991. Results indicate that increased levels of FDI are positively related to future improvements in state manufacturing export performance.     

A Geospatial Analysis of China's Exports, 1991-2008

Three Taiwan-based economists employ a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran's I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China's exports over the period 1991-2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China's trade of such major events as the country's accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China's export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.     

中国食品出口贸易地理网络演化

华人网络与文化距离对中国食品行业贸易地理网络的形成与演化具有显著影响.本文基于2000-2016年中国海关贸易数据库,首先展示中国各省份食品贸易地理网络格局及其演化趋势,研究发现我国东部省份以东亚和北美为主要出口目的地,中西部省份贸易网络的空间不均衡性较强,且各省份食品出口均有贸易联系强化和目的国多样化特征.其次,构建...     

Trade Liberalization and Export Performance in Bolivia

One of the anticipated gains from the trade liberalization policies adopted by many Latin American countries in recent years is improved export performance. In this article, the arguments on which this expectation is based are reviewed and the impact of trade liberalization on Bolivian manufactured exports analysed. The conclusion is that improved export performance is largely the result of a more realistic and more stable real exchange rate after 1985, while the trade policy reforms have had little impact. Certain deficiencies of Bolivia's export performance, such as the increased emphasis on primary and semi-processed products, and the lack of diversification in terms of both products and markets, are also noted.     

ARE EU COUNTRIES LESS INTEGRATED THAN U.S. STATES? THEORY AND EVIDENCE*

ABSTRACT A belief that EU integration is incomplete is often predicated on a comparison to U.S. states. Yet, with low barriers to trade and factor mobility between EU countries, is this belief correct? To address this question, we develop three theoretical predictions regarding the distribution of output and factors across members of an integrated economic area with harmonized policies and free movement of goods and factors. Empirical tests strongly support these predictions for U.S. states and 14 EU countries. Constructing a measure of integration, we find that EU integration rose from the 1960s to equal that of U.S. states by 2000.     

北美自由贸易协定与美墨关系

北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)的签定是冷战结束后美墨关系发生变化的一个重要标志,是经济全球化过程中的重要发展趋势。美、加、墨通过建立经济合作关系,实行经济自由化、一体化,既有利于三国经济的互利合作,又促进墨西哥的政治经济体制改革,为墨西哥对外经济开放、发展外向型经济提供机遇。但美墨之间由于历史遗留问题以及墨西哥国内依然存在的强烈民族主义倾向,墨西哥经济对美国经济的过分依赖等,使美墨关系还存在不确定的变数。由于墨西哥积极发展与亚太地区和欧盟的经济合作关系,未来美墨关系的发展,以及建立北美自由贸易区统一货币等问题,是对NAFTA的一个严峻考验。     

Missing an opportunity: the Italian Mezzogiorno's trading troubles during European integration

Among the many troubles that southern Italy's economy is facing, its deficient trade performance receives little attention. Yet the Mezzogiorno's comparative disadvantage in trade is a recurring theme in the long history of Italian inter-regional disparities. Adverse conditions for firms in tradeables persist while European integration opens up new opportunities for this sector to expand. In this paper, a dataset of employment rates in tradeable and non-tradeable sectors from 2000 to 2010 is constructed to analyse the strength and development of the Mezzogiorno's export base during European integration. The analysis shows that the new trade opportunities alone did not suffice to even the Mezzogiorno regions' road to export orientation.     

晚清时期香港与北方环渤海地区的贸易关系

晚清时期香港与北方环渤海地区的贸易关系密切,东北地区通过牛庄口岸,山东及朝鲜通过烟台口岸,直隶及广大北方腹地通过天津口岸与香港展开了繁密的贸易往来.不同地区的洋货进口结构略有不同,而土货出口结构则差别较大,反映出区域经济发展的差异.对外贸易的发展刺激了腹地外向型经济的兴起.     

20世纪90年代的中日纤维产品贸易

20世纪90年代中日两国贸易结构发生较大变化,即中国对日本出口的食品及矿产等初级产品在对日出口总额中降到不足一成,而纤维产品贸易以几乎每年占中日贸易额的20～30％的速度强劲发展,推动了两国贸易总额的迅速增长,但同时也引起贸易摩擦。尽管纤维产品贸易由垂直贸易分工向初级水平贸易分工发展,以及密切的依存关系两大特征,使中日两国避免了在该领域的贸易战,但是,如何在互补性贸易结构中寻求更多的合作领域以减少贸易摩擦甚至避免贸易战争,是20世纪90年代中日纤维产品贸易带来的重要启示。     

THE EFFECTS OF TRADE WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ON THE REGIONAL DEMAND FOR SKILL IN THE U.S.: EVIDENCE FROM COUNTY DATA*

ABSTRACT Using county‐level data from the 1980s and 1990s and a county‐level trade measure that incorporates the county's industrial mix and patterns of international trade across industries, I provide new evidence that trade with developing countries raises the demand for skill and the skill premium in the U.S. Consistent with Heckscher–Ohlin, I find that trade driven by differences in factor endowments has an economically significant impact on local labor markets. The evidence suggests that when trade with developing countries rises, counties with higher skill endowment and greater employment in industries with larger trade shares experience greater relative demand for high‐skilled labor.     

Trade and the location of industries in the OECD and European Union

Trade and location theory identifies forces that could leadto locational dispersion (comparative advantage) or locationalconcentration (scale economies) in the face of globalizing markets,each with different consequences for specialization and theadjustment costs associated with integration. However, theseforces can play themselves out in very complex ways if locationalchange principally affects intermediate production. Moreover,effects of history may be important, if locational patternswhich exist prior to integration reflect either strong externaleconomies or, as we argue, strong institutionalized capacitiesto respond to more open markets. This could especially be thecase in the context of Europe, whose territories are generallyless specialized than the states of the USA. To see how thesedifferent effects are operating today, empirical measurementis required. Using a data set which allows changes in locationaldistribution of manufacturing industries in the OECD to be measured,we show that Europe does not seem to be ‘Americanizing’its economic geography. Many sectors are actually spreadingout in Europe, implying that the effects of history have remainedstrong up to this point. Specialization increases are weak inmost European economies as well. The OECD has a more complexpicture of spread and concentration. Some of the implicationsfor further research on agglomeration, intra-industry trade,and integration are brought out in the conclusion.     

Cultural policy‐making in the free trade era: an evaluation of the impact of current world trade organisation negotiations on audio‐visual industries

The delicate compromise concerning the regulation of world trade in audio‐visual materials is about to be upset. Ongoing negotiations under the World Trade Organisation's General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) are seeking to establish, in the words of US negotiators, “clear, dependable and predictable trade rules” for transnational media exchanges. This article evaluates the impact of the GATS on audio‐visual industries and considers the extent to which cultural industries fit into the framework of multilateral trade talks. Based on interviews with trade officials in the WTO and the UK Department of Trade and Industry, the article concludes that liberalising and deregulatory policy shifts are more likely to emanate from corporate and state environments than from the slow and detailed negotiations in WTO headquarters in Geneva where “defensive” interests appear to be dominating over “offensive” ones.     

Revisiting the Natural Resource Curse: Backward Linkages for Export Diversification and Structural Economic Transformation

This article revisits and empirically tests the conjecture that specialization in natural resource industries (NRI) might not necessarily be a ‘curse’ for developing countries if it generates opportunities for export diversification in backward-linked sectors à la Hirschman. The article systematizes the evolution of the debate around the NRI ‘curse’. Then it empirically tests whether NRI might represent a sufficient ‘domestic representative demand’ à la Linder to favour diversification into backward-linked sectors such as knowledge-intensive business services and high-tech manufacturing. It focuses on the former and discusses the new opportunities for export diversification led by virtuous pathways of domestic structural change. It finds novel, quantitative empirical support for this conjecture, which complements extant qualitative literature and discusses implications that revisit the NRI curse debate.     

Trade Policy

Daniel Verdier. Democracy and International Trade: Britain, France, and the United States. 1860–1990
Judith Goldstein. Ideas, Interests, and American Trade Policy
Alfred E. Eckes, Jr. Opening America's Market: U.S. Foreign Trade Policy since 1776     

The United States and Bahrain: Interpreting the Differentiated U.S. Responses to the Arab Spring

We examine how the United States' response to the situation in Bahrain can be differentiated from that in Libya and Egypt based on a comparative content analysis of the U.S. administration's press releases, remarks, and interviews during the first three months of the Arab Spring movement. Our findings indicate that although the level and duration of violence were comparable, the U.S. government response was strikingly different with the support given to the Bahraini government, in contrast to the critical stances adopted towards Libya and Egypt. We explain how the United States' lack of political incentive to act and concerted support by its allies were influential factors for the United States' differentiated policy during the Arab Spring.     

THE POLITICAL TRADE‐OFF BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL STRINGENCY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL AMERICA*

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of the political trade‐off between rural economic development and environmental quality on the determination of environmental regulations in the U.S. intensive livestock industry. The political economy model, adapted from Fredriksson (1997) , is tested empirically, using state‐level data on environmental regulation of the U.S. livestock sector. We find that state governments respond to greater potential for water pollution with more stringent environmental regulations. Consistent with our political economy model, we also find that states with lower recent growth in per capita income implement less stringent environmental regulations.     

中俄双边旅游与进出口贸易互动关系的实证研究

以1998-2011年中俄两国旅游与贸易数据为基础,利用格兰杰因果关系检验发现俄国出境旅游是进出口贸易的单向格兰杰原因,中国进出口贸易是出境旅游的单向格兰杰原因。旅游与贸易互动关系研究结果表明:俄国出境旅游对进出口中国贸易均有着明显的推动作用,并对进口贸易的推动作用要明显强一些;中国进出口贸易对出境俄旅游都有明显的促进作用,进口贸易的促进作用要略强一点。俄罗斯断面看,占中国入境旅游比对对华贸易依存度有一定影响;中国断面看,中国对俄贸易依存度对出境俄旅游偏好和占俄入境旅游比影响均较大。两国旅游与贸易的互动性差异特征分析能为两国双边旅游与贸易良性互动发展提供相应参考。     

On the origins of border effects: insights from the Habsburg Empire

What are the origins of border effects on trade and why do borderscontinue to matter in periods of increasing economic integration?We explore the hypothesis that border effects emerged as a resultof asymmetric economic integration in the unique historicalsetting of the multi-national Habsburg Empire prior to the FirstWorld War. While markets tended to integrate mainly due to improvedinfrastructure, ethno-linguistic networks had persistent tradediverting effects. We find that the political borders whichseparated the empire's successor states after the First WorldWar became visible in the economy from the mid-1880s onwards,already 25–30 years before the First World War. This effectof a ‘border before a border’ cannot be explainedby factors such as administrative barriers, physical geography,changes in infrastructure or patterns of integration with neighbouringregions outside of the Habsburg customs and monetary union.However, controlling for the changing ethno-linguistic compositionof the population across the regional capital cities of theempire does explain most of the estimated border effects.     

Restructuring Intra-urban Space during China's Transition. Jian Feng

An American geographer whose research focuses on Europe reports on changes in geographical patterns and trends in merchandise export trade after the dismantling of political- economic divisions prevailing during the Cold War and their replacement by European political and economic integration as well as globalization. Analysis and comparison of international trade data for the years 1960 and 2010 reveal a dramatic expansion in the role of Germany and China in European merchandise trade, accompanied by a decline in the importance of the United States and United Kingdom. The author also demonstrates how some countries such as the Netherlands have expanded their exports to a broader range of European countries, whereas others appear to be consolidating their roles as leaders of regional trade blocs (e.g., Italy in Southeastern Europe).