Factors of party system fragmentation: A cross-national study

This article uses a representative sample of elections held in 82 countries of the world (1993–2012) for a statistical analysis of factors that explain the number of parties in national legislative elections. The analysis confirms that the proliferation of candidates and/or parties at the district level contributes to the number of national parties, but the other crucial determinant is party system nationalisation. Several factors that are believed to have an impact on party system fragmentation, such as economic wealth, federalism, linguistic fractionalisation and population size, exert their influence on the number of national parties indirectly, by affecting either the number of district parties or party system nationalisation. At the same time, the significance of many other factors, especially those pertaining to electoral systems and the general political–institutional context, can be properly estimated only if the strongest determinants of system-level fragmentation are controlled for.

本文使用了世界82个国家选举（1993—2012）的代表性样本,对国家立法选举中决定政党数量的因素进行了统计分析。作者认为,地区层次的候选人以及/或政党层出不穷,对全国性政党的数量有所影响,而政党体系的全国化也是一个关键因素。有几个因素估计对政党体系的碎片化有影响,像经济财富、联邦主义、语言及人口规模等等便通过影响地区政党的数量或政党体系的全国化,而对全国性政党的数量产生了间接的影响。与此同时,其他许多因素,尤其是涉及选举制度以及一般政治—体制环境的因素,也可以进行恰当地评估,但要以决定了体制层面碎片化的最强因素作为对照。     

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

The New South Wales Labor Party's 1927 Rules: A case study of democracy and oligarchy within political parties

Scholars have long recognised a propensity towards oligarchy within political parties. I explore this tendency through an examination of the New South Wales (NSW) Labor Party's 1927 Rules. These reforms are important because, by significantly decentralising power within the party, they demonstrate how the inclination towards oligarchy can be resisted. The adoption of the 1927 Rules, however, also coincided with the increasing centralisation of power in the hands of NSW Labor leader Jack Lang and his allies. This occurred largely in spite of the new rules, not because of them. It was able to happen, however, because the reforms sustained a crucial democratic flaw in the party constitution in that they continued to give excessive power to the leaders of affiliated trade unions.

学者们很早就注意到政党内的寡头化倾向。本文通过对新南威尔士1927年规则的研究,探讨了这种倾向。改革之所以重要,就在于它在党内分散了权力,在于改革表明了寡头化的倾向可以得到遏制。不过,1927规则通过的同时,权力也越发向新南威尔士工党首领杰克郎及其支持者的手里集中。1927规则没能阻止集权,而不是导致了集权。集权之所以发生,是因为改革在党章中保留了一个至关重要的民主弊端,即给予相关工会领导人过大的权力。     

The Ambivalent Moderation of Hindu Nationalism in India

Despite regular participation in national and regional elections and occupation of office both at the centre and in the regional governments, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not acquired the aura of moderation. It has not achieved acceptance into the party system of India in a manner that would make it comparable to Christian Democratic parties in Europe. This appears puzzling in the light of Downs’ moderation thesis, which suggests that regular participation in free, fair and competitive elections transforms extremist parties to moderates as they converge towards the median voter. The article approaches this puzzling counterfactual in intra-system comparison by drawing on the case of Sikh nationalism. With a focus on BJP, the article presents an analysis of party competition, party programs, policies and public opinion data on issue positions and the social base of the party. In conclusion, three general enabling conditions are identified that help explain the deviant case of the ambivalent moderation of the BJP.

印度人民党虽然参加全国和地方选举,虽然在中央和地方政府中任职,但并没有因此就有稳健克制的样子。它没有能够像欧洲的基督教民主党那样被纳入印度的政党体系。这就成为汤恩的克制理论解释不了的谜团,按汤氏的理论,正常参加自由、公正而竞争性的选举,会使极端主义政党变得稳健克制,向一般投票者趋近。本文通过系统内比较,以民族主义的锡克教为例,破解了这个谜团。作者聚焦印度人民党,分析了政党竞争,政党计划、政策以及关于某些话题立场的舆论资料、还有政党的社会基础。作者发现三种情形能够一般性地解释印度人民党的偏激不稳健。     

Evolving membership strategies in Australian political parties

Like parties elsewhere, the Australian parties have witnessed a decline in membership activism in recent years and some have suggested that near memberless parties may become the norm. Drawing on elite interviews, party documents and examination of recent organisational reforms, we argue that parties continue to need members and view their involvement as essential to achieving their objectives. In response to declining rates of activism parties have begun to experiment with different forms of membership, such as policy branches, and to expand the traditional notion of membership to include ‘supporters’. We show that membership is a flexible concept that is used by parties to fulfil their institutional functions and electoral objectives, and is defined in unique ways in each sphere of activity. We suggest that accounts of party decline relying on formal membership numbers may be inaccurate.

同其他国家的政党一样,澳大利亚的政党近年来也经历了党员参与的滑坡,以至有人认为无党员政党会成为常态。笔者根据对精英的访谈、政党的文献以及对近年组织改革的考察,指出政党还是要有党员的,党员的参与对于实现政党的目标至关重要。针对参与率走低的情况,一些政党开始尝试不同的参与形式,如政策支部,并延展传统的党员概念,把支持者也包括进来。党员是一个灵活的概念,一些政党用它来实现其体制功能和竞选目的,在每一个活动范围内都有独特的定义。根据正式成员人数统计出来的政党参与走低,是不准确的。     

Classifying electoral systems by input rules: Building on Blais and Rae through Australian experience

By revisiting the work of Blais and Rae, this article develops a new classification of electoral systems focused on input rules. An Unknown Winning Number family is distinguished from a Quota family with known winning numbers for most of the counting process. Branching family trees are developed and used to help explain some Australian experience with accentuated disproportionality in two electoral systems which have been omitted from otherwise path-breaking recent analysis (Taagepera, R. and Shugart, M.S. 1989. Seats and votes: The effects and determinants of electoral systems. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press). These omitted systems are identified as effectively giving electors as many votes as seats available in a district. The input-rule family trees remind us that number of votes is an important component of electoral systems, although elusive and somewhat forgotten in much recent analysis. More conventional groupings of electoral systems are identified as output peer groups.

本文通过重读布莱斯和雷的著作,提出了一种强调输入规则的选举制度的新分类,即未知获胜票数系,以区别于为大多数计票过程所知的获胜票数配额系。该系及其分支有助于解释澳大利亚所经历的两种选举体制的某种不均衡性。这种不均衡性被本来可能具有开创性的最新分析（塔格佩拉与舒噶特的《席位与投票：选举制度的效果和成因》）所忽略。被忽略的制度有效地给予就一个选区既定席位而言尽可能多的票数。输入规则系告诉我们投票数是选举制度的重要组成部分,只是在最新的分析中没被正视,甚至被忽视了。选举制度更传统的分类被定为输出同类组。     

Legislative accountability in a mixed-member system

Accountability of representatives to electors is a key indicator of democratic health. In mixed-member systems, the coexistence of two kinds of representation provides the opportunity to test competing claims with minimal confounding factors. There is debate about the relative accountability of constituency and list MPs, and in particular, concerning dual candidacy, where individuals can stand for both constituency and list seats. Analysing New Zealand elections since 1999, with comparisons back to the previous single-member plurality system, this article examines the effects of dual candidacy, legislative turnover and the cases where constituency or electorate MPs have lost their seats, but remained in Parliament as list members.

代表对选民负责乃民主是否健康的一个关键指标。在混合成员制下,两类代表的共存为比较单纯地检验其竞争的主张提供了机会。不过,选区及名单议员的相对责任,尤其在一个个体可以既代表选区又代表名单席位的情况下的责任,对此是有争议的。本文分析了新西兰1999年以来的选举,并与之前的单一成员多数选举制做了对比,还考察了双重候选人制的效果、议员的流动、以及选区或议员落选但依然是国会名单成员的情况。     

The Borda Count and its real-world alternatives: Comparing scoring rules in Nauru and Slovenia

This article examines strategic elements of voter behaviour in parliamentary elections where the voting method is a scoring rule other than plurality: the Borda Count, which is used for the election of ethnic minorities in Slovenia, and the Dowdall rule, which is used in the Pacific island state of Nauru in multi-seat districts. After first examining the general properties of scoring rules, and generating theoretical differences between the two rules, we look at empirical evidence from Nauru and Slovenia. This casts a doubt on predictions based simply on a voting rule's mathematical properties and on the accuracy of assumptions of sincere rank ordering.

本文研究了议会选举投票者行为的策略因素。议会选举中的投票方法是一个有别于多数法的计分法则：斯洛文尼亚少数族群选举使用的波达计数法;太平洋岛屿国家瑙鲁多席位选区使用的斗多尔法则。作者首先分析了计分法则的一般属性,并对两种法则做了理论区分。然后研究了瑙鲁和斯洛文尼亚的实证资料。作者对仅仅基于投票规则数学属性的预测以及有关纯粹排行假设的精确性表示了质疑。     

The Limits of Compulsion: Demographic Influences on Voter Turnout in Australian State Elections

It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself.

人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。     

Conservative instinct in Australian political thought: The Federation debates, 1890–1898

Many historians of Australian political thought have attributed its pragmatic and anti-speculative tendencies to a Benthamite influence. Without denying the influence of Bentham and Benthamism on Australian thought and institutional development, this article challenges the assumption that the abovementioned tendencies necessarily betray a Benthamite heritage. By analysing the theoretical justifications for pragmatic, anti-speculative approaches to institutional design in the Federation debates (1890–1898), this article shows that there was a very strong Burkean impulse behind the sort of pragmatism that is usually attributed to Bentham. If the argument of this article is correct, then it is an invitation for historians and political scientists to reconsider significantly the nature of Australian political thought.

研究澳大利亚政治思想的史家将澳大利亚政治思想的实用、反思辨倾向归之于边沁的影响。本文并不否认边氏对澳大利亚思想以及制度发展的影响,但对上述倾向为边氏遗产的说法不能赞同。笔者分析了联邦辩论（1890—1898）中实用的、反思辨的制度设计,指出通常被归到边沁的实用主义,其背后跃动的实乃伯克的思想。如果此论不谬,历史学者和政治学者就应好好考虑澳大利亚政治思想的性质了。     

Conceptualising Australia's tradition of pragmatic federalism

This article reviews existing scholarly debates about Australia's pragmatic federalism and seeks to refine it conceptually. It does so against the background of burgeoning international governance literature informed by insights from philosophical pragmatism, as well as in the context of disjuncture in Australian inter-governmental experiences. Pragmatic federalism is posed not merely as a one-dimensional notion referencing a series of ad hoc inter-governmental arrangements over time. Rather, it is conceptualised as multi-dimensional and encapsulating a confined range of institutional designs and postures that can (potentially) be observed across different policy fields and over time. An initial demonstration of the utility of the heuristic to recent empirical experience and change is presented. The consequence is more serious engagement with both the formal and informal features that characterise inter-governmental arrangements at different levels of government, and attention to the degrees to which dialogue and practices are connected.

本文考察了有关澳大利亚实用联邦制的学术辩论,并试图将其概念精炼。本文写作背景包含了开始出现的国际治理文献、哲学实用主义以及澳大利益政府间关系的裂变。实用主义联邦制并非仅仅是参考了一系列政府间安排的单面观念。它是一个多面的、包括一系列制度方案和姿态,而这些在不同政策领域内,在很长时间内都是可以观察到的。本文对近年的实证经验及变化的阐释功用做了初步的说明。最后是对于不同政府级别上的政府间正式及非正式特征更为严肃的介入,对于对话与实践关联程度的关注。     

The Women,Peace and Security agenda: Australia and the agency of girls

This article argues that young women and girls are significant stakeholders in peace and security efforts. Understanding their roles, views and capacity is essential to an adequate perspective on peace and security. Yet girls remain the most marginalised group when it comes to peace and security efforts globally. Gender- and age-based hierarchies often leave their interests ignored. Excluding girls hinders prospects for sustainable peace by denying their rights, entrenching inequity and affecting future chances for increasing women's participation. Australian government statements on Women, Peace and Security are evaluated on how they relate to young women and girls. The article presents a series of cases to analyse how young women are impacted by security factors, how they are actively working to create peace and security, and how to better include girls in seeking peace. Options for action by Australian policymakers are discussed.

本文指出,青少年女性是和平与安全努力的重要相关方。正确的和平安全观需要理解这些青少年女性的角色、观点和能力。但全世界但凡涉及和平安全,女孩都是一个最边缘化的群体。性别及年龄的等级制忽视了她们的利益。对女孩的排斥拒绝了她们的权利,强化了不平等,妨碍了妇女未来的参与,这都不利于未来的持久和平。作者评估了澳大利亚政府关于妇女、和平及安全的宣示与青少年女性有多大关系。本文分析了安全因素如何影响年轻女性,青年女性右如何积极致力于创建和平及安全,和平事业该如何吸收女孩等等。作者还讨论了澳大利亚政策制定者的行动选择。     

Mapping anomalous democracies during the Cold War

During the Cold War, a number of societies established stable democracies despite having low levels of modernisation and relatively few democratic neighbours. Threshold levels of modernisation and neighbouring democratic societies are consistently related to the endurance of democracy. Meanwhile, the Cold War superpowers often supported autocracies, making it even more difficult to maintain democracy. Analysing these stable but ‘deviant’ democracies provides an opportunity to examine how domestic factors influence regime stability. In particular, such historical cases advance understanding of contemporary patterns of democratic stability. Previous research has not systematically identified deviant democracies before 1989. This research note does so using a large-N analysis of 125 societies during the first phase of the third wave of democratisation, from 1975 to 1988. It identifies 11 deviant democracies, including Bolivia, Botswana, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Mauritius, Trinidad and Tobago, and Turkey.

冷战期间,若干社会建立了稳定的民主体制,尽管它们现代化的程度较低,左邻右舍民主化的不多。民主的持久与否一向与一个国家的现代化基础水平、也与左邻右舍是否为民主政体有关。而冷战期间超级大国往往支持独裁政权,这又使得民主更难维持。分析那些稳定却并非标准的民主国家,使我们得以了解国内因素如何影响政体的稳定性。这些历史的案例增强了我们对当代民主稳定模式的理解。以往的研究没有系统地确认1989年以前的非标准民主国家。本文对第三次民主浪潮第一期125个国家包括玻利维亚、博茨瓦纳、哥伦比亚、科斯特黎加、多米尼加、洪都拉斯、印度、牙买加、毛里求斯、特立尼达和多巴哥、土耳其等做了大量案例分析。     

The construction of a ‘narrative’ in Australian federal budget speeches, 1996–2013

Given the significance of annual budgetary decisions in both fiscal terms and policy reach, the annual federal budget speech has a distinctive place in Australia's parliamentary cycle. The speeches afford a government a significant opportunity to articulate its economic policy agenda and to contrast its agenda with that of its predecessors or the Opposition. This article reviews the budget speeches of two Treasurers, Peter Costello (Liberal, 1996–2007) and Wayne Swan (Labor, 2008–13), and compares them with respect to how they used the budget speech to position their parties and their governments. Costello's speeches are singular, consistent and highly partisan. Swan eschewed the ‘ad hominem’ argument favoured by Costello, but failed to project an alternative, consistent narrative of his government's agenda and achievements.

年预算无论是财政上还是政策上都至关重要,因此年度联邦预算讲话在澳大利亚的国会程序中有着特殊的位置。这个讲话为政府提供了阐述其经济政策并比较其前任或反对党经济政策的机会。本文研究了两任财长即彼得考斯特罗（自由党,1996-2007）和怀恩斯万（工党,2008-13）的讲话,比较了两人如何利用预算讲话阐明其政党和政府的立场。考氏的讲话不同凡响、一以贯之,具有鲜明的党派倾向。斯万不像考氏那样个人风格,但他没能就其政府的议题和成就拿出一个别样、连贯的讲述。     

The Presidentialisation of Australian Politics? Kevin Rudd's Leadership of the Australian Labor Party

The presidentialisation debate centres on the question of whether contemporary political leaders in parliamentary systems are more powerful than their predecessors. This article applies the presidentialisation thesis of Poguntke and Webb (2005) to the period in which Kevin Rudd led the federal parliamentary Labor Party in Australia. Their model identifies three distinct faces of presidentialisation: the executive face, the party face and the electoral face. This article argues that the evidence of presidentialisation under Rudd's leadership is mixed. The most compelling evidence is reflected in how Rudd interacted with the Labor Party, rather than his interaction with the executive or impact on voting behaviour.

关于总统化的辩论集中于当前国会的政治领袖是否比他们的前任更有权力。本文将普刚克和韦博（2005）的总统化理论应用于陆克文领导澳大利亚联邦议会工党的时期。他们二人总结了总统化的三个方面：行政面、党派面、选举面。本文指出,陆克文领导时期总统化的证据含混不清。最有说服力的证据倒是反映在陆克文与工党而不是与政府的互动或对选举行为的影响上。     

The introduction of Australian digital television: Politics,policy and power

This article discusses the introduction of digital television to Australia, and the competing interests, and conflicts of power, surrounding this. It seeks to explain the primary outcomes of the digital settlement in terms of these interests and these processes of power. It points out how this settlement was very much at odds with the pro-market, deregulatory and competition-oriented reform advanced by the Howard government (and prior to it, the Hawke and Keating governments) in other industry sectors. The digital settlement introduced in 2001 entirely determined what Australians watched on their television screens for the first decade of the 21st century. This article seeks to unpack the processes that led to this outcome.

本文讨论了澳大利亚数字电视的引进以及围绕它的利益博弈和权力斗争。作者力图从利益或权力的角度理解数字电视引进的主要结果。作者指出,数字电视的引进与霍华德政府（以及之前的霍克和基廷政府）推行的市场化、解除管制、竞争导向的改革大相径庭。2001年引进的数字电视整个决定了21世纪头十年澳大利亚人在电视屏幕上看些什么。本文意在揭示通向这一结果的过程。     

Public Contest through the Popular Media: The Mining Industry's Advertising War against the Australian Labor Government

This article explores the ‘mining tax ad war of 2010’, which contributed to the removal of a first-term Labor prime minister and shaped Australia's Minerals Resource Rent Tax. In particular, it examines the uses, ethics and consequences of advocacy advertising, which is an under-explored aspect of communication power. The article identifies advocacy advertising as an increasingly prevalent technique used by corporations and lobby groups to influence public policy in Australia. In conclusion, the article focuses on the regulatory environment for such campaigns and the areas of future research that might help to safeguard democratic practices.

本文讨论了2010年的矿税广告战,该战把第一任期的工党领袖拉下了马,并造就了澳大利亚矿产资源租赁税。作者特别分析了广告宣传作为一种没太被研究的通讯权力的用途、伦理和结果。本文指出广告宣传日益成为公司和游说集团用以影响澳大利亚公共政策的流行工具。作者最后集中讨论了这类竞争的管制环境,以及有助于保护民主实践的未来研究领域。     

Rational,reverential or experimental? The politics of electoral reform in Oceania

Oceania, with the exception of New Zealand, has received little comparative attention in studies of electoral reform. This article uses evidence from Fiji, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Nauru, as well as New Zealand and Australia, in order to: understand the process of electoral reform at national and regional levels; examine variation in the process and consider whether theories of electoral reform from elsewhere apply to Oceania. It finds that electoral reform is a highly complex process that is influenced by the self-interest of parties, democratic values and diffusion.

除了新西兰,不大有人从比较选举改革的角度关注大洋洲。本文使用斐济、汤加、巴布亚新几内亚、瑙鲁以及新西兰和澳大利亚的资料,目的是在国家和地区的层面上理解选举改革的过程;探讨过程中的变异,并思考其他地方的选举改革理论是否适用于大洋洲。     

Rethinking representation: The challenge of non-humans

This article argues that the standard model of political representation mischaracterises the structure of representation. After surveying the classical types of representation and their application to non-humans, the basic nature of representation is shown to have been unduly centred on interests, responsiveness and unidirectional protocols. It proposes a different structure by drawing inspiration from recent scholarship and developments in political philosophy, as well as the representation of non-human actors. It proposes an ontological grounding of representation in ‘irreducible multiplicity’, and a structural analysis based on the concepts of claim and relation. This abstract form of representation can take into account both human and non-human cases, and works to ground different typologies. The relational structure of representation creates interests and preferences, subjects and actors, power dynamics and seemingly immutable identities.

作者认为,标准的政治代表模式错误地勾画了代表的结构。作者首先考察了代表的经典类型并将其应用于非人类,指出关于代表的本质,以往过多强调利益、反应、单向协议等等。作者根据从近年学术研究、政治哲学以及非人类主体的代表性那里得到的灵感,提出了另一种结构。文章指出代表的本体论根据在于不可简化的多重性。作者还提出了一种基于诉求和关系概念的结构分析。这种抽象代表形式既考虑了人类也考虑非人类的情况,并为不同的类型提供了根据。代表的关系结构造就了利益和偏好、对象和主体、权力的动态以及看似不变的身份。     

The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.

本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票,并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化,以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起,天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票;2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价;他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题,而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象,其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。