Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This article examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left–right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. Spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, however, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the USA. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia's stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

本文研究了2013年澳大利亚联邦选举,以检验两种竞争的投票选择：空间政治和共价议题。作者使用了2013年澳大利亚选举数据进行分析,发现空间政治（用政党认同和左右光谱自定位来测量）和共价议题都对选举的选择有重要影响。不过,空间测量比共价议题更能解释投票的选择,这和英国、加拿大及美国近年的研究形成对照。对这些差异的解释是推理性的,但跟澳大利亚稳定的政党及选举制度有关,包括义务投票、选举频率之类。澳大利亚选民面临着沉重的信息负担,由此而导致了对空间启发的依赖要大于其他地方。     

The irrelevance and (new) relevance of religion in Australian elections

This article assesses religion and voting in Australia since 1987 and examines how Tony Abbott's status as Liberal leader corresponded with changes in leader evaluations and voting, and with significant changes in Australian parties and the electorate. Religious attendance became associated more strongly with Liberal voting in 2010. Catholics voted Liberal significantly more from 2010, in significantly higher numbers they viewed the Liberal leader more positively in 2013, and they viewed the Labor leader significantly less so. Evaluations of Abbott were structured by attitudes about abortion and same-sex marriage, whereas evaluations of Kevin Rudd were not. The article discusses how these results are not unique to Australia, but fit patterns observed with centre-right parties in other western democracies.

本文考察了1987年以来的宗教和投票,并研究了托尼·阿伯特作为自由党党首如何应对在党首评价及投票方面的变化,以及澳大利亚政党和选举上的重大变化。宗教的参与和2010年的自由党投票关系密切。而自2010年起,天主教徒明显地更多投自由党的票;2013年更多天主教徒对自由党领导人做正面评价;他们对工党领导人评价就要低得多。对阿伯特的评价主要取决于堕胎和同性结婚问题,而对陆克文的评价则不是这样。本文讨论了为什么这样的结果并不是澳大利亚的独特现象,其他中右翼当政的西方民主国家也是这样。     

Profiling Politicians in Solomon Islands: Professionalisation of a Political Elite?

This article examines the key attributes of members of parliament from Solomon Islands. Drawing on bio-data on MPs, interviews and election results, the authors’ findings show that politicians are getting older, have atypical education levels and are from an increasingly diverse range of occupational backgrounds. The authors also find that, while Solomon Islands MPs are a political elite of sorts, they remain tightly tied to their communities. They consider the implications of these findings for research on developmental leadership, political professionalisation and elite theory. They argue that none of these three literatures adequately captures the political trajectories of politicians in Solomon Islands but that this case study contributes to research in these areas.

本文探讨了所罗门群岛议会成员的一些重要属性。作者根据对议员们传记、访谈和选举结果等资料的研究,发现政治家年龄越来越大,教育水平不太典型,职业背景愈益多样。作者同时发现,所罗门群岛议员虽属政治精英,但与各自的社群都保持紧密的联系。作者讨论了这些发现对于发展型领导人、政治职业化及精英理论所具有的意义。作者指出,这三方方面的文献都未能捕捉到所罗门群岛政治家的政治轨迹,而本研究却对此有所贡献。     

The Limits of Compulsion: Demographic Influences on Voter Turnout in Australian State Elections

It is often assumed that the problem of electoral participation in Australia has been solved with an entrenched regime of compulsion in enrolment and voting. In recent elections, however, one-fifth of eligible Australians failed to cast a valid vote. This study aims to identify those demographic groups which contribute to this substantial rate of abstention. The authors used Random Forests to model the effects of demographic factors on voter turnout in three Australian state general elections. Results suggest that resource barriers have been generally surmounted, but lower levels of population stability and interaction contribute to a decline in electoral participation. These findings have implications for electoral administration, urban form and compulsion itself.

人们经常说,澳大利益选举参与度的问题已经通过强制性投票解决了。不过在近年的选举中,有五分之一的适龄澳大利亚人没有进行有效投票。本文意在探讨哪些人群造成了如此大比例的弃权。作者使用“随机森林”分析了人口因素对三个州普选结果的影响。结果表明,资源障碍一般说是消除了,但较低的人口稳定与互动水平导致了人们对选举的消极态度。这个发现对于选举的管理、城市的形态以及强制本身都有着参考价值。     

Deterring the ‘boat people’: Explaining the Australian government's People Swap response to asylum seekers

This article examines why Australia has taken a tough stance on ‘boat people’, through an analysis of the Malaysian People Swap response. The findings support the view that populism, wedge politics and a culture of control drive Australia's asylum-seeker policy agenda. The article further argues that these political pressures hold numerous negative implications for the tone of Australia's political debate and the quality of policy formulation, as well as for asylum seekers and refugees themselves.

本文通过分析“马来人交换协议”的反响,探讨了为什么澳大利亚对“船民”采取了一种严厉的立场。根据作者的研究,民粹主义、极端政治以及控制的文化推动了澳大利亚的难民政策。作者指出,这些政治压力给澳大利亚政治辩论的定调以及政策制定的质量,对避难者和难民,都带来消极的影响。     

Corruption and confidence in Australian political institutions

Corruption is inimical to public support for democratic government. This article uses Australian public opinion surveys to clarify the link between corruption and views of political institutions. The results show that citizens' personal experiences of corruption among public officials are negligible, but that three in four believe that there is some corruption among politicians and almost half believe that corruption in Australia is increasing. Perceptions of corruption matter much more than personal experiences of corrupt public officials in shaping confidence in political institutions. For policy-makers, the findings have implications for how corruption is handled, and in the measures that should be put in place to allay the public's fears about the increase in corruption.

腐败妨碍了公众对民主政府的支持。本文使用澳大利亚舆论调查,澄清了腐败与政治体制观的联系。研究显示公民个人对于公职人员腐败的经验可以忽略不计。倒是四分之三的人相信政客中存在某种腐败,几乎近一半人相信腐败在澳大利亚与日俱增。对腐败的认识,比个人对公职人员中腐败的耳闻目见,对于形成对政治体制的信赖要重要得多。对于政策制定者,这些发现有助于他们处理腐败,采取措施缓和公众对于日增的腐败的恐惧。     

Factors of party system fragmentation: A cross-national study

This article uses a representative sample of elections held in 82 countries of the world (1993–2012) for a statistical analysis of factors that explain the number of parties in national legislative elections. The analysis confirms that the proliferation of candidates and/or parties at the district level contributes to the number of national parties, but the other crucial determinant is party system nationalisation. Several factors that are believed to have an impact on party system fragmentation, such as economic wealth, federalism, linguistic fractionalisation and population size, exert their influence on the number of national parties indirectly, by affecting either the number of district parties or party system nationalisation. At the same time, the significance of many other factors, especially those pertaining to electoral systems and the general political–institutional context, can be properly estimated only if the strongest determinants of system-level fragmentation are controlled for.

本文使用了世界82个国家选举（1993—2012）的代表性样本,对国家立法选举中决定政党数量的因素进行了统计分析。作者认为,地区层次的候选人以及/或政党层出不穷,对全国性政党的数量有所影响,而政党体系的全国化也是一个关键因素。有几个因素估计对政党体系的碎片化有影响,像经济财富、联邦主义、语言及人口规模等等便通过影响地区政党的数量或政党体系的全国化,而对全国性政党的数量产生了间接的影响。与此同时,其他许多因素,尤其是涉及选举制度以及一般政治—体制环境的因素,也可以进行恰当地评估,但要以决定了体制层面碎片化的最强因素作为对照。     

Does compulsory voting violate a right not to vote?

It is sometimes claimed that compulsory voting violates a particular right not to vote. For some, this assumed right is as fundamental as the right to vote. The existence of such a right, however, has attracted little sustained scholarly attention. This article explores from a political theory perspective whether the alleged ‘right not to vote’ is deserving the same legal and moral protection as the right to vote. I argue on two broad grounds that it is not. First, not all rights are capable of being legally waived and voting is one of them. Second, voting is a right but it is also a duty; it is a duty-right. Therefore, even though many people do fail to vote, doing so does not seem to constitute the exercise of any particular right, nor should it be legally recognised as such.

有人认为强制性投票侵犯了不投票的权利。对于很多人来说,不投票的权利跟投票的权利同等重要。不过这种权利却未得到学术界的持续关注。本文从政治学的角度探讨了所谓的“不投票权”是否应像投票权一样享有法律上和道德上的保护。笔者基于更宽泛的理由认为不应当。首先,并非所有权利都是可以在法律上免除的,投票权即是。其次,投票是权利,也是义务;是权利—义务。所以,尽管许多人没有投票,但这并不构成某种权利,法律上也不应被视作权利。     

Determining the Success of Economic Sanctions

This article applies the social-network conception of national power, derived from the social-network conception of the international system structure, to economic sanctions, one of the most widely studied empirical phenomena in international relations. The empirical analyses of economic sanctions presented here find that sanctions cases with disproportional structural-network power between sender and target were far less likely to be successful and those with the target state possessing high structural-network power were far more likely to be successful. The evidence from nonparametric model discrimination statistics and information criteria measures shows that the sanctions models with new social-network power measures have greater explanatory power than or statistically outperform those with old attributional power measures, such as the Correlates of War index and GNP.

一些政治学者认为强调农业和农民的“乡村情结”越来越失去其政治和社会意义,但并没有多少实证研究支持这一说法。为此,作者就人们对农业和农民的态度做了探讨性调查。调查结果显示,人们的态度符合“乡村情结式微”论,但会因年龄、位置、出生国、投票意向而有差异。不过,仍存在一种将乡村情结归诸农民的倾向,有对农民生产方式的强烈支持、以及对农业于国家未来重要性的坚信。令人惊奇的是,与过去三十年的市场自由主义相左,对政府之扶助农业的支持可谓强烈。     

The politics of lowering the voting age in Australia: Evaluating the evidence

There is a vigorous international debate about lowering the voting age to 16, with some jurisdictions already moving in this direction. The issue of the voting age also intersects with broader normative and empirical approaches to youth political engagement. Using evidence from Australia, this article evaluates empirically the arguments put forward for lowering the voting age. The findings suggest only partial support for lowering the voting age to bring it into line with other government-regulated activities. There is no evidence that lowering the voting age would increase political participation or that young people are more politically mature today than they were in the past. The absence of empirical support for the arguments in favour of lowering of the voting age has implications for how to transform democracy in order to attract greater youth engagement.

是否把选举年龄降到16岁,国际上有着激烈的辩论。有些法律体系已在朝这个方向运动。选举年龄的话题与更广泛的、有关青年政治参与的规范性及经验性研究有所交集。本文根据澳大利亚的资料,从实证的角度评论了主张降低投票年龄的观点。本文的发见仅部分支持降低选举年龄与有关政府法规的接轨。现在无法证明降低选举年龄会提高政治参与,也无法证明今天的年轻人比过去的年轻人政治上更成熟。降低选举年龄的主张缺少实证的支持,那么该如何改变民主制度以吸引年轻人更多的参与呢？     

Symposium: Australia–US Economic Relations and the Regional Balance of PowerAustralia–US Economic Relations following the 2005 Free Trade Agreement

The Australia–United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) came into force on 1 January 2005. Australia's exports to the US have since stagnated, while imports into and US investments in Australia have surged. This article analyses Australia–US economic relations with a focus on trade and investment flows. In addition, it examines the capital raising by US investment banks for these projects. The analysis traces the effects on the relationship of the Global Financial Crisis, the resources boom in Australia and the rise of the Australian dollar.

澳美自由贸易协定2005年元旦起生效。自那以来,澳大利亚对美出口止步不前,而来自美国的进口和投资却一路上扬。本文考察了澳美经济关系,重点分析了贸易和投资流。此外作者还研究了美国投资银行为那些项目的融资。以往分析研究探索了全球金融危机、澳大利亚起源开发热以及澳大利亚元升值三者之间关系所受的影响。     

Moving beyond the rational choice debate via social capital: The study of illegal private protection

In the context of the epistemological and methodological debates about rational choice (RC) sparked by Green and Shapiro and the subsequent rejoinders, Hindmoor made the theoretical claim that there is now an opportunity for RC to be enhanced and for past debates to be set aside by incorporating different theoretical perspectives into RC. This article presents an example of one context in which this can be done: the study of illegal private protection (IPP) produced by organised criminals and corrupt officials. It extends a rational theory of criminal protection to enable the simultaneous analysis of corrupt protection and augments this approach with theories of social capital (SC). Both positive and negative forms and effects of SC are considered. This approach highlights a middle ground between advocates and critics of RC, demonstrating a capacity to explain patterns in the production of IPP between organisations and across countries.

针对格林、沙皮罗与弗里德曼的否定者所发起的有关理性选择的认识论及方法论论战,辛德摩尔提出一个理论主张：现在正可以通过吸纳不同的视角而弘扬理性选择,以往的辩论可置之一旁。本文讨论了一个可行的案例：有组织犯罪分子造成的非法私人保护。作者应用理性理论于犯罪保护,对腐败保护做了分析,并用社会资本理论扩展了这一方法。作者对社会资本理论的正负短长做了分析。这样的研究强调了介于理性选择理论赞同方与反对方的中间地带,展示对于组织间及跨国非法私人保护的产生的解释能力。     

Public Contest through the Popular Media: The Mining Industry's Advertising War against the Australian Labor Government

This article explores the ‘mining tax ad war of 2010’, which contributed to the removal of a first-term Labor prime minister and shaped Australia's Minerals Resource Rent Tax. In particular, it examines the uses, ethics and consequences of advocacy advertising, which is an under-explored aspect of communication power. The article identifies advocacy advertising as an increasingly prevalent technique used by corporations and lobby groups to influence public policy in Australia. In conclusion, the article focuses on the regulatory environment for such campaigns and the areas of future research that might help to safeguard democratic practices.

本文讨论了2010年的矿税广告战,该战把第一任期的工党领袖拉下了马,并造就了澳大利亚矿产资源租赁税。作者特别分析了广告宣传作为一种没太被研究的通讯权力的用途、伦理和结果。本文指出广告宣传日益成为公司和游说集团用以影响澳大利亚公共政策的流行工具。作者最后集中讨论了这类竞争的管制环境,以及有助于保护民主实践的未来研究领域。     

Research NotePork-Barrelling in Australian Politics: A Reconsideration of Leigh

This research note replicates Leigh's (2008) analysis of pork-barrelling in Australian politics and tests the validity of his findings using geographic techniques. Distributive politics is integral to nearly all theories of legislative politics because it is fundamental to the connection between legislators and constituents, and can be used to facilitate coalition-building. This note addresses an aspect of pork-barrelling that has been overlooked in most previous scholarship. It argues that distributive politics is, at its core, a geographic, constituency-centred process. It is therefore essential to reconsider the conventional models and take geography into account in both substantive and statistical terms. To that end, we replicate several of Leigh's results using a relatively new technique, Geographically Weighted Regression, and reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in the coefficients. Our findings highlight the importance of political geography and have important implications for studies of legislative politics and elections.

本文重复了李（2008）对澳大利亚政治分肥拨款的分析,用地理学技术检测了其发现有效性。分配政治内在于几乎所有的立法政治理论,因为它是立法者与选民之间联系的基础,有利于联盟的构建。本文探讨了分肥拨款被以往学术研究所忽略的一个方面。作者认为,分配政治其核心是一个地理的、以选区为中心的过程。因此有必要重新检讨固有的模式,切实而且从统计的意义上采纳地理的视角。我们使用了一种相对新近的技术,即地理加权回归分析来重复李的几个成果,发现空间同质系数很高。我们的发现突出了政治地理的重要性,对于立法政治以及选举的研究有参考意义。     

Rational,reverential or experimental? The politics of electoral reform in Oceania

Oceania, with the exception of New Zealand, has received little comparative attention in studies of electoral reform. This article uses evidence from Fiji, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Nauru, as well as New Zealand and Australia, in order to: understand the process of electoral reform at national and regional levels; examine variation in the process and consider whether theories of electoral reform from elsewhere apply to Oceania. It finds that electoral reform is a highly complex process that is influenced by the self-interest of parties, democratic values and diffusion.

除了新西兰,不大有人从比较选举改革的角度关注大洋洲。本文使用斐济、汤加、巴布亚新几内亚、瑙鲁以及新西兰和澳大利亚的资料,目的是在国家和地区的层面上理解选举改革的过程;探讨过程中的变异,并思考其他地方的选举改革理论是否适用于大洋洲。     

Online petitions in Australia: Information,opportunity and gender

This article compares offline and online petition signing in Australia, to examine whether online forms of political activity can mobilise citizens who would otherwise not participate. Using data from the 2010 Australian Election Study and a model of civic voluntarism comprising online and offline resources, the article presents several unexpected findings. First, women are significantly more likely than men to sign both written and e-petitions, and this will likely continue with the increasing circulation of e-petitions and corresponding decline in written petitions. Second, Australians from a non-English-speaking background are underrepresented in the signing of written petitions but not of e-petitions. Civic skills gained in the workplace and voluntary organisations positively predict both forms of petition signing, but language, gender and income do not constitute barriers to the signing of e-petitions. This article contributes to emerging evidence the internet can mobilise traditionally underrepresented groups to participate in political activity.

本文对澳大利亚脱线和在线请愿做了比较,以了解在线的政治活动能否动员起本来不参与政治的公民。笔者使用了2010年澳大利亚选举研究的数据以及比较在线与脱线资源的公民志愿行动模型,获得了若干意想不到的发现。首先,比起男子,妇女联署纸本及电子请愿书的可能性会大得多,这种情况会伴随着电子请愿的流行和纸本请愿的式微而继续下去。公民在工作单位以及志愿者组织那里获得的技能有助于他们积极参与两种请愿,而语言、性别、收入也不构成电子请愿的障碍。本文印证了互联网可以动员以往不大被代表的人群参与政治活动的说法。     

Gender Equality and Decent Work in Australia

In 1998 the International Labour Organization (ILO) advanced the notion of ‘decent work’ as a way to enhance opportunities for women and men to obtain productive work in conditions of freedom, equality, security and human dignity. This concept is now both salient and contested in national and international policy debates. In a 2008–09 campaign, the ILO asserted that ‘gender equality [is] at the heart of decent work’. This article examines appeals to decent work in Australian parliamentary discourse and proposes how best to make use of the concept. It argues that gender equality is fundamental to decent work.

1998年世界劳工组织提出了“体面工作”的概念以促进男女在自由、平等、安全和尊严的条件下从事有益的工作。这个概念在国家和国际的政策辩论中都占有显要的位置。国际劳工组织在2008、2009年的活动中,强调性别平等位居体面工作的核心。本文考察了澳大利亚议会的相关言论,并对使用好这个概念有所建议。作者认为性别平等是体面工作的基础。     

Australia's Campaign for Security Council Membership

The United Nations Security Council has global responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It is therefore essential for Australia to nominate periodically for non-permanent membership, and 2013–14 was the earliest feasible opportunity available to the Rudd government. Australia's uneven record of participation in the United Nations over the last decade and a half was an impediment to election, but recent renewed commitment to international law and upgraded multilateral engagement, among other factors, strengthened the case for election. Australia was elected in the first round of voting, principally due to effective political leadership and the sustained campaign organised by diplomatic officers. Membership will enable Australia to participate actively in discussion of issues on the Council's agenda and to lead discussion of two or three additional subjects.

联合国安理会负有维护国际和平及安全的责任。因此澳大利亚有必要定期提名为非常任理事国,2013—14年对陆克文政府是最早的机会。过去十五年中澳大利亚参与联合国事务颇不均衡,这不利于其当选。而最近它对国际法的重新关注、对多边关系的提升则有助于其当选。澳大利亚主要由于有效的政治领导和外交官坚持不懈的努力而在第一轮投票中当选。有了成员国资格,澳大利亚就能积极参与安理会的讨论,并领导两三个附加议题的讨论。     

The Women,Peace and Security agenda: Australia and the agency of girls

This article argues that young women and girls are significant stakeholders in peace and security efforts. Understanding their roles, views and capacity is essential to an adequate perspective on peace and security. Yet girls remain the most marginalised group when it comes to peace and security efforts globally. Gender- and age-based hierarchies often leave their interests ignored. Excluding girls hinders prospects for sustainable peace by denying their rights, entrenching inequity and affecting future chances for increasing women's participation. Australian government statements on Women, Peace and Security are evaluated on how they relate to young women and girls. The article presents a series of cases to analyse how young women are impacted by security factors, how they are actively working to create peace and security, and how to better include girls in seeking peace. Options for action by Australian policymakers are discussed.

本文指出,青少年女性是和平与安全努力的重要相关方。正确的和平安全观需要理解这些青少年女性的角色、观点和能力。但全世界但凡涉及和平安全,女孩都是一个最边缘化的群体。性别及年龄的等级制忽视了她们的利益。对女孩的排斥拒绝了她们的权利,强化了不平等,妨碍了妇女未来的参与,这都不利于未来的持久和平。作者评估了澳大利亚政府关于妇女、和平及安全的宣示与青少年女性有多大关系。本文分析了安全因素如何影响年轻女性,青年女性右如何积极致力于创建和平及安全,和平事业该如何吸收女孩等等。作者还讨论了澳大利亚政策制定者的行动选择。     

The Anarchism of the Occupy Movement

Occupy has been criticised for a lack of organisation and ideological direction, its persistent failure to articulate practical reforms and its anarchism. Occupy's extensive influence calls for scholarly analysis of its underlying ideas and its praxis. This article develops a conceptual understanding of the movement and argues that the criticisms above overlook both how the movement's participants rationalise its praxis and the consistently anarchist forms of this praxis. The article draws on recent scholarship that distinguishes between ideological anarchism and anarchical forms of praxis inspired by anarchist principles. It argues that Occupy's praxis is anarchical. Though not ideologically anarchist, Occupy expresses a commitment to anarchist ideals. The article develops a particular conception of anarchism and in this context, discusses Occupy's anti-capitalist position, reflected in its catchcry ‘we are the 99 per cent’. It concludes by explicating the anarchical elements of Occupy's praxis.

占领运动被批评缺少组织和思想方向,总是提不出实际改革的诉求,再就是无政府主义。占领运动的广泛影响需要对其背后的思想和实践进行学术分析。本文作者从观念上对占领运动有所理解,认为那些批评忽视了运动的参与者其实是在使其实践,使其无政府形态的实践理性化。本文根据近年的学术研究,对思想上的无政府主义和无政府主义原则所启发的无政府式实践做了区分。作者认为占领运动的实践是无政府的,思想上却不是无政府的。但尽管思想上不是无政府,占领运动却表达了无政府的理想。本文提出了一种独特的无政府主义概念,并藉此讨论了占领运动反资本主义的立场,反思了“我们是百分之九十九”的口号。本文最后阐述了占领运动实践的无政府主义元素。