THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATES: A TWO-DIGIT-LEVEL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1954–1987 state manufacturing employment growth in 19 two-digit industries. Markets were found to be the strongest influence in 18 industries. Labor was the second strongest, followed by a threshold variable. Weaker influences were resources, taxes, and amenities. Regional values for the market, labor, and threshold variables corresponded well with regional employment change in the Manufacturing Belt and all other regions of the U.S.     

FORECASTING TURNING POINTS IN METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES USING BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES

In this paper, I adapt to the regional level a Bayesian approach developed by Zellner, Hong, and Min (1990) to analyze forecasts of turning points in a multicountry setting. The techniques applied to a regional setting treat the individual metropolitan areas in the same way that Zellner, Hong, and Min treated countries. The findings in this study indicate that the techniques and models employed by Zellner, Hong, and Min work just as well at the metropolitan-area level as they did in the multicountry setting. The best models, from those studied here, forecast around 70 percent of the downturns and 80 percent of the upturns correctly, which compares favorably to the performance of the same techniques in Zellner, Hong, and Min.     

THE IMPACT OF SPECIFIC-SECTOR CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE AND MIGRATION

ABSTRACT.  It is common in empirical regional economics to use total employment as an explanatory variable while investigating issues such as the level and distribution of income and migration. This paper argues that sector-specific changes in employment and labor market performance can have different effects on economic growth, the collection of tax revenue, migration, and the level and distribution of household income. As such, it is important to model sectors separately. We find that expansions in employment opportunities for a high-wage sector such as computer manufacturing or bioengineering, a medium-wage sector manufacturing, and the lower-wage sector of retailing have differing economic consequences for a small city. We use a data intensive computable general equilibrium model to obtain these results.     

非正规就业视角下的制造业空间重构——基于2000、2010年地级及以上城市的实证研究

我国制造业的空间重构不仅表现为整体格局和职能强度的变化,更体现在内部构成要素的分化上。我国从事制造业的正规与非正规从业人员比例由2000年的41.7:58.3转变为2010年的29.3:70.7。两者的空间结构差异明显,非正规就业密度由沿海向内陆逐步递减,而正规就业在内陆省会城市存在明显高地。本文分析了制造业重构过程中的六类城市及其分布变化。研究表明,全球化进程和就业门槛显著促进了非正规就业增长;非正规就业也与经济发展存在共生关系,但与制度环境并无显著关联;此外廉价劳动力、市场可达性与规模经济对制造业的区位选择具有显著影响。     

中国互联网发展的地域结构研究

本文通过对我国近年来CN下注册的域名、WWW站点及互联网用户三要素变化的分析 ,表明我国互联网的发展的地域差异巨大。首先 ,东部沿海地带省份发展水平远远高于中西部地带 ,呈东、中、西三带递减规律。其次 ,互联网在我国的发展主要集中在城市 ,特别是大、中城市 ,广大的农村地域基本属于待发展区。再次 ,在东、中、西三带内部存在次级分异。此外 ,在城市之间也存在次级差异 ,呈超大城市向小城镇递减规律。最后 ,作者从经济、科技、社会发展水平等角度初步探讨了差异形成的原因     

THE EFFECT OF ACCESSIBILITY ON PRODUCTIVITY IN SPANISH MANUFACTURING FIRMS

This paper evaluates the impact of accessibility on the productivity of Spanish manufacturing firms. We suggest the use of accessibility indicators of workers and commodities, integrating transport, land use, and individual components, computing real distances or traveling times using the Spanish full road network. Estimated firms’ total factor productivity is explained as a function of the accessibility indicators and additional control variables. Results evidence the crucial role on firms’ productivity to the accessibility of commodities and to a slightly lesser extent the workers.     

UPPER BOUNDS ON THE SIZES OF INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Upper bounds are presented for a measure of the overall percentage error caused in a multiregional input-output model when interregional feedback effects are ignored. This error figure is thus a measure of the magnitude of interregional linkages. The upper bounds are expressed as a function of the levels of self-sufficiency in the regions in the model and of the norms of the regional technical coefficients matrices. Experimental results are presented for a variety of examples that are thought to reflect real-world situations, and it is clear that in many cases the upper bound (and hence the error) is extremely small. The implication is that single-region input-output models may be adequate for a variety of questions.     

基于面板数据的劳动力流动的区域差异研究——以国有企业大学生就业为例

在大学教育转型的背景下,大学生就业难成为当前社会的一大焦点,化解大学生就业困局对于我国经济社会可持续发展具有重要的意义。为此,本文利用1999-2008年我国国有及国有控股企业的面板数据,通过实证测算大学生就业和工资之间的关系,探索大学生就业影响因素及其区域差异。研究结果发现:大学生就业增量和工资之间呈反比关系,而且大学生就业增量表现出明显的区域差异,表现出东部最强,西部最弱的大学生就业的区域聚集。出现这种情况的原因实际上由当前大学生劳动力市场区域分割、行业分割以及连年扩招造成的。为了改变这种局面,需要大力促进地区平衡发展、营造公平的就业竞争环境以及健全的就业激励和保障机制,同时还要完善就业服务体系,加强就业导向的实习指导和服务,提升大学生就业能力和就业素质。     

VARIATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT AND NON-EMPLOYMENT INCOME IN CANADIAN CITIES AS INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC BASE DIFFERENCES

The use of personal income sources instead of labour force as an indicator of urban economic base differences offers another perspective on the character of cities. This analysis discovered that cities were becoming less dependent on income from employment, thereby downgrading the effectiveness of labour force as an economic base indicator, and more dependent on income from investments and pensions. Significant variations in income sources were revealed both by region and by size of city. In general, the smaller the city, the higher the proportion of income from pension-government sources, and the larger the city, the higher the proportion from investments.
L'utilisation des sources de revenu personnel au lieu de celles de la main-d'oeuvre comme indicateur des differences de base économique urbaine offre une autre perspective sur le caractere des villes. I1 a étéétabli que les villes deviennent de moins en moins dependantes des revenus provenant des emplois, déclassant ainsi I'efficacité de la main-d'oeuvre en tant qu'indicateur de base econornique, et de plus en plus dbpendantes des revenus provenant d'investissements et de pensions. Des variations significatives ont été mises en évidence dans les sources de revenu par rapport à la région et à la taille d'une ville. En règle générale, plus la ville est petite plus la proportion du revenu provenant des pensions du gouvernement est élevée, et plus la ville estgrandeplus la proportion du revenu provenant d'investissements est élevée.     

东北地区装备制造业的地位及其变化研究

国家振兴东北老工业基地计划的实施,为东北的振兴、特别是制造业的振兴带来了一定的机遇,但要恢复到原先的辉煌地位已不可能。东北地区装备制造业相对衰退的原因是多方面的,其中结构是基础,体制是关键,观念是根本。东北振兴、东北装备制造业振兴,必须抓住结构调整主线,彻底解决体制和观念障碍。本文以统计数据为基础,通过与长江三角洲、珠江三角洲的对比,揭示了东北装备制造业的现状特征和未来态势,剖析了东北装备制造业相对衰退的原因,提出了振兴东北装备制造业的政策建议。     

扎根理论视角下旅游非正式部门成长路径——以安徽西递古村为例

以安徽西递古村的旅游非正式部门为研究对象,运用扎根理论研究方法,通过聚焦编码、轴心编码、理论编码三步骤,分析案例地旅游非正式部门的成长路径。研究发现:1旅游非正式部门发展在符合生命周期基本理论基础上,具有新特色。随着阶段推进,主导影响因素由单一向多元转变,外部影响因素的作用力愈渐加强。2精英带动在旅游非正式部门发展起步阶段起主导作用并以粗放开发为特色;利益驱动下旅游非正式部门过度扩张使得同质竞争激烈化,经营边际收益减少;家庭结构与社区影响造成经营固化与惯性,社会政策带来经营萎缩,经营者试图通过寻租及名望身份赋加的形式改变困境,增强对经济之外的其他诉求(如名望、人际),促进了旅游非正式部门对自我身份重新审视与再定位。3社区力量在市场饱和后以隐性道德伦理手段维持既有市场结构平衡状态,成为市场竞争调控手段新补充。     

顾客价值理论在旅游中的应用研究进展

20世纪90年代中期以来,顾客价值理论逐渐成为旅游研究中的一个热点领域,为避免旅游市场恶性竞争,提高旅游企业竞争力,促进旅游业可持续发展起到重大作用。本文基于相关文献,对顾客价值理论应用于旅游研究的缘起、历程、对象、方法和内容进行了综合分析。研究表明,国内研究在起始时间、数量和方法上都滞后于国外研究,尤其是国内定量研究有待加强;旅游领域的顾客价值研究尽管时间较短,但其研究对象已涉及饭店、旅行社、航空、旅游产品、旅游市场等众多领域;研究内容主要集中于顾客价值理论应用于旅游的必要性、旅游领域顾客价值的构成与测量、顾客价值的前向驱动与后续影响的关系、顾客价值的创造等方面;实证研究多,理论探索少。建议今后相关研究应进一步拓展和深化,加强定量分析和理论探索。