THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATES: A TWO-DIGIT-LEVEL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1954–1987 state manufacturing employment growth in 19 two-digit industries. Markets were found to be the strongest influence in 18 industries. Labor was the second strongest, followed by a threshold variable. Weaker influences were resources, taxes, and amenities. Regional values for the market, labor, and threshold variables corresponded well with regional employment change in the Manufacturing Belt and all other regions of the U.S.     

FORECASTING TURNING POINTS IN METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES USING BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES

In this paper, I adapt to the regional level a Bayesian approach developed by Zellner, Hong, and Min (1990) to analyze forecasts of turning points in a multicountry setting. The techniques applied to a regional setting treat the individual metropolitan areas in the same way that Zellner, Hong, and Min treated countries. The findings in this study indicate that the techniques and models employed by Zellner, Hong, and Min work just as well at the metropolitan-area level as they did in the multicountry setting. The best models, from those studied here, forecast around 70 percent of the downturns and 80 percent of the upturns correctly, which compares favorably to the performance of the same techniques in Zellner, Hong, and Min.     

中国互联网发展的地域结构研究

本文通过对我国近年来CN下注册的域名、WWW站点及互联网用户三要素变化的分析 ,表明我国互联网的发展的地域差异巨大。首先 ,东部沿海地带省份发展水平远远高于中西部地带 ,呈东、中、西三带递减规律。其次 ,互联网在我国的发展主要集中在城市 ,特别是大、中城市 ,广大的农村地域基本属于待发展区。再次 ,在东、中、西三带内部存在次级分异。此外 ,在城市之间也存在次级差异 ,呈超大城市向小城镇递减规律。最后 ,作者从经济、科技、社会发展水平等角度初步探讨了差异形成的原因     

UPPER BOUNDS ON THE SIZES OF INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Upper bounds are presented for a measure of the overall percentage error caused in a multiregional input-output model when interregional feedback effects are ignored. This error figure is thus a measure of the magnitude of interregional linkages. The upper bounds are expressed as a function of the levels of self-sufficiency in the regions in the model and of the norms of the regional technical coefficients matrices. Experimental results are presented for a variety of examples that are thought to reflect real-world situations, and it is clear that in many cases the upper bound (and hence the error) is extremely small. The implication is that single-region input-output models may be adequate for a variety of questions.     

VARIATIONS IN EMPLOYMENT AND NON-EMPLOYMENT INCOME IN CANADIAN CITIES AS INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC BASE DIFFERENCES

The use of personal income sources instead of labour force as an indicator of urban economic base differences offers another perspective on the character of cities. This analysis discovered that cities were becoming less dependent on income from employment, thereby downgrading the effectiveness of labour force as an economic base indicator, and more dependent on income from investments and pensions. Significant variations in income sources were revealed both by region and by size of city. In general, the smaller the city, the higher the proportion of income from pension-government sources, and the larger the city, the higher the proportion from investments.
L'utilisation des sources de revenu personnel au lieu de celles de la main-d'oeuvre comme indicateur des differences de base économique urbaine offre une autre perspective sur le caractere des villes. I1 a étéétabli que les villes deviennent de moins en moins dependantes des revenus provenant des emplois, déclassant ainsi I'efficacité de la main-d'oeuvre en tant qu'indicateur de base econornique, et de plus en plus dbpendantes des revenus provenant d'investissements et de pensions. Des variations significatives ont été mises en évidence dans les sources de revenu par rapport à la région et à la taille d'une ville. En règle générale, plus la ville est petite plus la proportion du revenu provenant des pensions du gouvernement est élevée, et plus la ville estgrandeplus la proportion du revenu provenant d'investissements est élevée.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.     

试论人类身高的地域差异规律及其成因

人类身高高纬高于低纬,牧区高于农区、沿海高于内地、低海拔高于高海拔、城市高于农村、发达国家高于发展中国家。其主要原因是气温的高低、光照的多少和营养的差异。     

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE DURING RECESSION: THE EXPERIENCE OF FOREST PRODUCT MANUFACTURING PLANTS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, 1981–1985

This paper, on the basis of primary data obtained at the level of the individual plant, examines the nature and extent of employment change in the forest product manufacturing industries of British Columbia between 1981 and 1985 -that is, during and following extremely severe recessionary conditions. Conceptually, the discussion emphasizes the employment implications of enterprise strategies in recessions; empirically, selected characteristics of employment change are related to plant-level rationalizations, investment and technological changes, and market performance and plans. The overall size of the workforce employed by forest product firms in 1981 was significantly lower in 1985. Females were more vunerable to loss of employment than males. In occupational terms, however, male-dominated administrative workers experienced the greatest proportionate losses. The production, marketing and regional context of job loss varied. Trends in general towards value-added activities and geographically more diverse markets occurred largely within the coastal region. Ce rapport examine, sur la base des premiéres données obtenues au niveau d'uneusine, la nature et I'extension des modifications de I'emploi dans les industries de transformation deproduits forestiers en Colombie-Britan-nique entre 1981 et 1985, c'est-à-dire pendant et juste après une période de récession extrêmement sévère. La discussion fait ressortir essentiellement les implications sur le marché de I'emploi des stratégies des entreprises en période de récession. De manière empirique, les caractéristiques de modifications de I'emploi sont liées directement aux raisons attachées au niveau de I'usine proprement dite, aux changements apparus dans les investissements et la technologie, de même qu'aux performances et aux plans à terme du marché. Dans son ensemble, la taille de la main d'oeuvre employée par les entreprises traitant les produits forestiers en 1981 a considérablement diminue en 1985. Les femrnes ont été plus touchées que les hommes. Cependant, en termes de catégorie d'emplois, les employés administratifs, en rnajorité masculins, ont sub; la plus grande proportion de perte d'emploi. De plus, le marché et le contexte régional de perte d'emploi se sont modifiés. D'une manière générale on a noté des tendances vers des activités plus valorisantes et des marchés géographiquement plus diversifiés au sein de la région côtière.