THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR IDENTIFYING RURAL PLACES WITH GROWTH PROSPECTS: (with particular reference to Kaliningrad Oblast)

One of the key objectives in the rural development program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR is the consolidation of rural settlement in larger places. An example of the dispersed settlement pattern is Kaliningrad Oblast, which has a total of 1,527 rural places ranging from fewer than 5 to more than 2,000 inhabitants, with a total rural population of 195,529 (1970 census). The author shows that growth prospects are dependent on a combination of five factors—geographical setting and level of development; population; fixed assets in agriculture; nonfarm fixed assets; availability of services—and, using correlation analysis, identifies 283 places with prospects of future growth, ranging from 32 in the 51–100 size class to one of more than 2,000 population. The preservation of some small rural places is termed inevitable because many serve as outlying settlements for livestock subdivisions of collective and state farms, and dairy and beef cattle represents a characteristic type of farming in Kaliningrad Oblast.     

COMMUTING LINKS AT LOWER LEVELS OF RURAL SETTLEMENT

The study of commuting links in rural areas of the Non-Chernozem Zone offers a useful approach to the redesign of settlement patterns. Commuting to work is analyzed in 80 primary settlement systems (farm systems) in five rayons of Vologda Oblast. Most of the commuting streams are found to occur toward the central farm settlements within systems and also between adjacent systems, with rural nonfarm places (both industry-based and transport based) offering the principal opportunities for employment. Commuting is analyzed in terms of two indices: a labor-balance index (relating resident population and employment opportunities) and a commuting intensity index (relating the number of commuters to resident population).     

Paths of Evolution of Rural Settlements

Rural places are discussed in terms of predominantly farming communities, nonfarm communities and places with mixed functions. In the case of farming communities, Soviet policy is to encourage consolidation to optimal sizes of 1000 or 2000 people, to make possible better services than can be extended to single-dwelling and other very small settlements. An increasing share of nonfarm settlements among rural places reflects the operation of three kinds of processes: the appearance of places related to nonfarm use of the territory (mining, transportation, recreation, etc.); the transformation of rural places, especially in suburban zones into dormitory settlements; and the development of small-scale local industry.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

THE PROBLEM OF DEVELOPING RURAL SERVICES IN NOVGOROD OBLAST

Novgorod Oblast, in northwestern Russia, has been distinguished by a high rate of rural outmigration and depletion of agricultural labor resources. One key factor in slowing the flight from the land is an improvement in the quality and range of rural services. The impact of adequate services is shown by available data on the distribution of rural population by distance from service centers. The rate of decline of rural population is generally found to be lower in places near service centers than in more remote places. Since most of the rural places are too small to support service establishments, it is recommended that services be expanded in about 200 central places that show promise of future growth.     

GEOGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE FIXED ASSETS OF RURAL PLACES

The use of fixed assets data as a geographical research tool is illustrated with reference to a rural rayon [minor civil division] of Kaluga Oblast, southwest of Moscow. The value of fixed assets by places is correlated with population size, the position of places within the system of settlement of particular state farms or collective farms, and distance from towns. The share of productive assets (farm buildings and equipment) is found to reach a maximum in places with populations of 100 to 200. In larger places, the share of productive assets declines because of the higher value of housing and the presence of most service facilities. The share of productive assets also tends to be low in suburban places where a substantial portion of the population commutes to nearby towns.     

Rural-Urban Relations,Household Income Diversification and Agricultural Productivity

Does rising income from agriculture drive the growth of nonfarm activities, or does increased income from nonfarm activities spur the growth of agriculture? This paper looks at the role of nonfarm income in enabling smallholders to raise agricultural output and productivity. Based on data from a sample of farm households near Kutus town in the Kirinyaga district of Kenya, it examines these issues by looking at the use of resources for farm production, the risks attached to alternative ways of raising output and productivity, and the household's propensity to accept risk as a function of the extent to which it is able to draw on liquid assets or diversified sources of income. The authors argue that nonfarm income provides households with a form of insurance against the risks of farming, and thus enables them to adopt new production methods and raise output. They argue further that a key factor in creating opportunities for rural households to earn nonfarm income is the presence of vibrant small towns nearby.     

Artists in rural locales: market access, landscape appeal and economic exigency

The period 1971 to 1991 saw a significant increase in the proportion of Canadians employed in the 'arts'. While still concentrated to a large extent in urban Canada, artists do seek out rural locations to pursue their craft. This paper identifies, interprets and classifies communities in rural Canada that specialize in the production of visual, performing and literary art. Location quotients are calculated from a custom-tabulated run of 1991 census data on employment in the arts in all Canadian census subdivisions. We propose several factors that may account for high concentrations of artists in some rural places. Cluster analysis is used to develop a classification of Canadian rural arts communities. We identify 371 small arts centres in Canada, ranging from Cape Dorset in the Northwest Territories to Elora in southwestern Ontario. Market access, landscape appeal and economic exigency are among the location determinants isolated. Further analysis reveals that five types of arts communities exist in rural Canada. Future research on a localized scale is now necessary to uncover specific factors responsible for the prevalence of artists in the rural ecumene.     

我国文化多样性时空格局及其成因研究

基于民族视角,利用五普、六普数据,运用文化多样化指数等方法,分析我国文化多样性时空格局,研究发现:1文化多样性水平具有空间差异性,呈现出中东部较低西部边疆地区较高,乡村高城市低的空间格局。2文化多样性具有缓慢变迁性。五普到六普,文化要素多样性、文化空间多样性略有降低;文化多样性类型略有调整;中东部向边疆渐高的核心外围式格局和乡高城低格局未变。3文化多样性变化具有多元性。有13个省份文化多样性下降,18个省份上升;城乡文化多样性变化也各具特色。4文化要素多样性水平较低,文化空间多样性水平较高,文化多样性表现具有悖论性。5文化多样性演化机制具有复杂性。地理环境、民族构成、人文历史、人口流动等均是重要影响因素。     

THE KNIGHTS OF LABOR DATA-BANK

Several countries have made large investments in building historical Geographical Information Systems (GIS) databases containing census and other quantitative statistics over long periods of time. Making good use of these databases requires approaches that explore spatial and temporal change. The authors use a variety of visualization and spatial analysis techniques to explore population change in Ireland during and after the Great Famine of the late 1840s. Importantly, the techniques allow differences over space and time to be explored, thus stressing the diversity between places, rather than making all places appear the same, a common criticism of many statistical approaches. The authors demonstrate the potential of these techniques to explore geographical and temporal variations in large quantitative GIS datasets.     

Changes in the Distribution of Rural Settlement in Northern Kazakhstan from 1959 to 1963

After the first great population movement to northern Kazakhstan in the period 1953–1958 in conjunction with the start of the virgin-lands cultivation program, a period of reordering and restructuring of rural settlement within the region set in during 1959–1963. Three types of settlement areas are distinguished: (1) in areas of predominantly old settlement (preceding the virgin-lands program), the increase of rural population during this five-year period was below the average rate of natural increase for northern Kazakhstan as a whole; there was a net-outmigration from rural to urban areas and to other parts of northern Kazakhstan, (2) in areas of combined old and new settlement, population increase was more significant and there was a noticeable reduction of small populated places and increase in the number of larger places, (3) in areas of predominantly new settlement, where the density of population is lowest, the rate of population increase is highest, and settlement is mainly in widely spaced larger places.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE LOCATION OF SERVICES AND RURAL SETTLEMENT

Soviet planners are advised to consider the linkage between rural settlement patterns and the provision of services, an issue that is assuming particular significance in connection with the present development program in the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR. The number of service establishments per 1,000 population is not considered a useful indicator because it tends to be high in areas with widely dispersed settlement in small inhabited places, and yet does not reflect a high level of services because of the small size of the establishments. It is desirable to cluster sets of services in central places; the presence of a single kind of service (store, school, etc.) in a small place is found tantamount to having no service whatever. Adequate provision of services is found to reduce, or even reverse, rural out-migration.     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

THE GREYING OF SOUTH GEORGIAN BAY

Custom Statistics Canada tabulations were used to analyse the distribution of the elderly, rural nonfarmers and migrants in Census Subdivisions around the south shore of Georgian Bay in 1991. The proportion of persons 60 and over in this area is well above the provincial average. In manycsDs, over 90 percent of those 60 and over are in the rural nonfarm category. Townships on the Bruce Peninsula were particularly attractive to elderly nonfarm migrants, while Wasaga Beach was an important destination for the elderly. Forallareas, the Colden Horseshoe around the western end of Lake Ontario was the largest source of elderly migrants from 1986 to 1991.
Des totalisations spéciales de Statistiques Canada ont été utilisées pour analyser la distribution des migrants, des personnes âgées, et des non-fermiers vivant sur les bords de la Baie Georgienne en 1991. La proportion de gens âgés de 60 ans et plus est bien au dessus de la moyenne provinciale. Dans plusieurs subdivisions de recensement, plus de 90% de gens aCgés de 60 ans et plus appartiennent à la catégorie rurale non agricole. Les cantons de la Péninsule de Bruce ont particulièrement attiré les migrants âgés de secteurs non agricoles. d'autre part Wasaga Beach était une destination importante pour les personnes âgées. La région du 'Golden Horseshoe', a l'extrémité ouest du Lac Ontario, a été celle qui a fourni le plus de migrants âgés de 1986 à 1991.     

2002年俄罗斯联邦的民族状况

2002年俄罗斯联邦进行了苏联解体后的第一次全国人口普查。本文根据此次人口普查的资料描述和分析了俄罗斯民族数量的变化、人口10万以上民族的性别和城乡居民比例以及掌握俄语的情况,也对土著小民族以及没有族属的人的情况等进行了介绍和分析。文章认为,苏联和俄罗斯联邦的民族数量不确定的原因,主要与其缺乏统一、连贯的划分民族的国家原则有关。     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN PLACES IN THE KARA KUM

The development of mineral resources in the Kara Kum desert and irrigation projects along the Kara Kum Canal have fostered the growth of urban population in Turkmenia at a more rapid rate than rural population. In general, established cities in the republic tend to grow more slowly than some of the new workers' settlements established on the basis of gas extraction and other mineral developments. The urban places of Turkmenia are classified by size classes, functional types and growth rates.     

福建省城镇流动人口的空间分异格局——基于六普数据的分析

文章基于第六次人口普查数据,运用数理统计、空间自相关和GIS等方法,分析了福建省城镇流动人口的空间分异格局。研究发现,福建省城镇流动人口在沿海多而密集、以区外流动为主,开放性和活跃性明显,而在内陆则少而稀疏、以区内流动为主,封闭性和粘滞性突出,但沿海和内陆均存在内部异质性;大城市流动人口密集且来源地广泛、对人口城镇化影响大,中等城市流动人口规模较小,小城镇对区内流动人口有一定吸纳能力。文章还探讨了城镇流动人口空间分异特征的驱动机制、对区域社会经济发展和城镇化的影响,并提出相关政策建议。     

Indicators Characterizing Systems of Rural Settlement

Several measures of variation are applied to an analysis of the local systems of rural settlement of the Estonian SSR. The measures used in the analysis are the range between the largest and smallest populations of places within a system; the mean population; the mean distance between places; the relative variability, defined as the ratio of the mean deviation to the mean; and the coefficient of variation, defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. These indicators are used to break down the systems of rural settlement in Estonia into five basic types and 12 subtypes.     

Rural Settlement Trends in Moldavia

An analysis of changes in rural settlement in the Moldavian SSR for the period 1959–1968 finds a high degree of stability, with few places eliminated because of resettlement or consolidation, and few new places established. The total rural population continues to increase, despite a relative decline of the rural component in the entire population. Growth rates have been highest for large central settlements of state farms and collective farms, but outlying peripheral villages within farm territories have also been growing.     

A Method For Calculating The Requirements For Mobile Public Services Under Various Geographical Conditions

A formula is developed for computing the requirements for mobile service units, such as traveling stores, repair shops, and clubs, in various types of rural settlement patterns. The formula takes into account the character of the service rendered, the number and density of the places to be served, the state of the roads, climatic conditions, and other factors. Mobile-unit requirements are found to increase with a decline in the average population, in places to be served, and in density of places. The requirements are highest in remote range-grazing lands in the southern Soviet Union.