THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

Problems of Providing Siberia with Manpower

Continuing net out-migration from Siberia produces a manpower supply problem that must be resolved if the regions's economic development is to be pursued. A high rate of labor turnover tends to raise the costs of industrial development and to lower the skill levels of workers as skilled labor leaving Siberian cities for other parts of the USSR is replaced by untrained manpower from the Siberian countryside. Wage differentials in effect in Siberia have been effective in attracting manpower from the Western regions for short periods of time, but have not stimulated permanent settlement. In the view of the authors, new arrivals can be induced to settle down in Siberia only if the adverse impact of the Siberian environment can be compensated by a level of housing and services that is superior to those available elsewhere in the Soviet Union. The significant element is housing, which should receive particular attention in future investment programs. Northern development within Siberia poses the additional problem of physical acclimatization.     

THE BAM: LABOR,MIGRATION AND PROSPECTS FOR SETTLEMENT

The construction of the showcase Baikal-Amur Mainline (the BAM), which spans over 2,000 miles of unsettled, desolate territory, provides an excellent opportunity to study labor management and organization in a centrally planned economy, and illustrates the interplay of central planning with the relatively unhindered migration of workers. Significantly, in the face of a shrinking labor force, the USSR attracted thousands of young people to Siberia to work on the BAM. Now that the rail line is in place, the more difficult task will be to entice workers to settle in the BAM zone. Until the Soviet Government makes a firm commitment to improving the quality of life in Siberia, prospects for settling the BAM region remain uncertain. (The author wishes to thank Holland Hunter, Gilbert Rozman and Theodore Shabad for their generous help and encouragement.)     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

THE PERIODICITY OF DROUGHTS IN THE GRAIN-GROWING AREAS OF THE USSR

On the basis of a chronology of droughts in the grain-growing regions of the USSR, compiled from historical sources and the more recent period of instrumental observations, the author shows that the occurrence of drought may be regarded as a random process characterized as a quasi-stationary Poisson series of events. Most of the grain regions in the USSR follow this regularity. In the case of simultaneous drought throughout the principal grain zone of the USSR, comprising the European part and the Midland region (West Siberia and Kazakhstan), the sequence of events assumes a nonstationary character. Statistical parameters are developed for the time series of drought years and nondrought years, and are compared with extreme values in grain-yield fluctuations. Over the last 140 years, drought occurred in 76 years in at least one of the three major grain regions of the USSR (European part, West Siberia, Kazakhstan) while 64 years had no drought and corresponding normal or higher yields. A catastrophic drought affecting all three grain regions simultaneously is virtually (95%) certain to occur at least once in 20 years.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

A STRATEGY FOR INTER-REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: WEST—EAST—SOUTH

Elaboration of a schema of basic macroregions in the USSR provides a framework for analyzing regional problems emerging from ongoing efforts at economic restructuring and social reform. Particular emphasis is placed on the Southern macroregion, with its growing labor surplus and recent discovery of nationally significant petroleum resources in the Caspian Basin. Mechanisms for the resettlement of southern workers to other parts of the USSR are described, as are examples of extralegal inter-regional labor and material flows which might be regulated effectively given more creative state policy. Obstacles to more effective management of a macroregion-based national economy are summarized (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

上海市就业市场状况与城市犯罪的空间计量分析

基于2008年上海市经济普查数据和城市犯罪数据,改变以往学者以失业率描述就业市场状况的做法,构建就业市场状况指数,并将其扩展到所有行业;同时,构建空间计量模型,研究上海市就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系,结果表明:1)就业市场状况对刑事犯罪率影响显著,不同行业的影响并不相同;其中,批发零售业、租赁和商业服务业、居民服务和其他服务业、公共管理和社会组织业就业的集中会引发犯罪活动的发生。2)空间计量模型在解释就业市场状况与刑事犯罪率之间关系时,计量效果良好。3)"空间效应"是影响刑事犯罪率的重要因素,其影响来自"空间邻近效应"和"空间误差效应"。     

Contemporary Migration in the USSR

The predominance of individual migration and a lack of coordination among government agencies result in a situation in which migration in the USSR often works at counter-purposes, with people moving away from areas suffering from a labor shortage and into areas with a labor surplus. A system of economic measures is advocated to optimize Soviet migration patterns. Since differences in living conditions are the basic motive between migration, an effort should be made to establish relationships between region al living standards that would attract migrants to regions with a labor shortage and induce them to settle permanently, instead of taking temporary advantage of high wage rates.     

Ethnic demography of western siberia At the end of the 20th century

This article presents data and analysis, summarizing the materials of the general censuses, mainly of 1989 and 2002. Special attention is paid to the dynamics of demographic composition and linguistic processes among the indigenous peoples of Western Siberia. The size and the distribution of 38 ethnic groups belonging to the multinational environment of the former USSR (with a size of not less than one thousand people) are presented for every region of Western Siberia (from the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District to the Altai Republic). Different patterns of distribution, clusters of territories with similar ethnic composition, shares of indigenous, migrant non-Russian, and ethnic Russian population in each region are reported. At the end of the 20th century, the most remote territories of the Far North (Yamal) and the mountainous region of the Altai show the greatest specifi city.     

Prospects of Population Migration in the USSR

The author offers a methodology for estimating inter-regional population flows in the USSR for the next quarter of a century. The method is based on expected regional manpower needs related to a model of the future distribution of production. Corrections are made for expected regional differences in the need for live labor [depending on the level of mechanization], in rates of natural increase and in the degree of mobility of the population of certain regions.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

ON THE INEQUALITY OF RURAL SERVICES PROVISION IN THE USSR

Results of studies of inter- and intra-regional variation of rural services provision (including retail trade, cultural-educational services, and health care) are compared. Highest levels of per capita services provision were found in the Baltic republics and RSFSR, with lower levels in the southern European USSR, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. The differences are attributed to rural depopulation (northwestern USSR), rural development priorities in areas of severe natural conditions (Siberia), and high rates of natural population increase (Central Asia). A differential approach in services planning is recommended between areas located near oblast urban centers and those which are more remote (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

THE IMPACT OF CRIME ON APARTMENT PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN

This study uses data of about 9,000 apartment sales in Stockholm, Sweden, to assess the impact of crime on property prices. The study employs hedonic pricing modelling to estimate the impact of crime controlling for other factors (property and neighbourhood characteristics). Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to combine apartment sales by coordinates with offences, land use characteristics and demographic data of the population. The novelty of this research is threefold. First, it explores a set of land use attributes created by spatial techniques in GIS in combination with detailed geographical data in hedonic pricing modelling. Second, the effect of crime in neighbouring zones at one place can be measured by incorporating spatial lagged variables of offence rates into the model. Third, the study provides evidence of the impact of crime on housing prices in a capital city of a traditional welfare state, information otherwise lacking in the international literature. Our results indicate that apartment prices in a specific area are strongly affected by crime in its neighbouring zones, regardless of crime type. When offences were broken down by types, residential burglary, theft, vandalism, assault and robbery individually had a significant negative effect on property values. However, for residential burglary such an effect is not homogenous across space, and apartment prices in central areas are often less discounted by being exposed to crime than those in the city's outskirts.     

A Study of the Functional Structure of Urban Places of the USSR (in connection with the tasks of an economic-geographic typology)

The author, following previous work by himself and A.A. Mints, offers a functional typology and classification of Soviet cities based on the percentage of the urban labor force employed in industry and transportation combined and in industry alone. The classification is apparently based on unpublished employment data supplied to the author by the Central Statistical Administration USSR. The classification distinguishes major capital cities, diversified industrial, transport, local organizing, recreation, and other types of cities.     

UNION REPUBLIC MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE USSR DURING THE 1980s

This article examines union republic migration trends in the USSR between 1979 and 1987 and prospects for indigenous out-migration from rural areas in Central Asia. The study is based on migration data derived by the residual technique and migration data from the 1985 microcensus. Results indicate that a south-to-north and probably Russian-dominated migration trend emerged in the 1980s, one which marks an almost complete reversal from earlier periods, especially 1959-70. Although Central Asia continues to have low levels of indigenous out-migration, labor surpluses and relatively waning capital investment in Central Asia may change this situation.     

IS CRIME BAD FOR BUSINESS? CRIME AND COMMERCIAL PROPERTY VALUES IN NEW YORK CITY

To test how crime affects economic activity, we use point‐specific data on crime, commercial property sales and assessed values from New York City, relying on an instrumental variables strategy. We find that crime reduces commercial property values, and the magnitude of the effect depends on the type and geography of crime. Elasticities range from ?0.1 to ?0.5. We find stronger evidence for negative violent crime effects in neighborhoods with lower incomes and higher shares of minority residents. Thus, disadvantaged neighborhoods are doubly harmed by crime—they have higher crime rates and those crimes have stronger effects on economic activity.