Stages and Methods of Economic-Geographic Prediction

An important technique of economic-geographic prediction is the comparative analysis of alternative combinations of productive forces that are likely to modify the existing system of the geographical division of labor and the system of economic regions. A suggested sequence of steps is designed to locate future productive capacity to a maximum extent in already developed regions with minimum inputs into new territorial development. Only industries whose growth cannot be insured in developed regions should be located in new pioneering regions. The predictive process is illustrated with particular reference to the economic development of the USSR up to the year 2000 and beyond. The principle of uniform spatial development, once a keystone of Soviet economic planning, is found to be economically unsound. Rapid returns on investment can be obtained by more intensive use of existing developed territories.     

Principles and Methods of Regional Geographical Prediction

A research methodology for purposes of geographical prediction is proposed. A region is considered the most likely object of geographical prediction, which is designed to forecast the most likely modifications of the natural environment under the impact of human activity, and the expected working and living conditions for man in the altered environment. The predictive process should focus on phenomena and processes that change through time and can be tested on the basis of known regularities and relationships. Predictive techniques may include both general scientific methods used for prediction and cause-and-effect relationships peculiar to geography. Among the most useful general techniques are extrapolation, expert evaluations, model building and comparative methods.     

Geographical notes

Small shops are a curious paradox. When small shops are mentioned, the independent retailer is often brought to mind. Yet, many small shops are operated by multiple retailers. Given the multiple expansion, there is a need to understand the roles and problems of the independent small shop in Scotland. Whilst Scotland may be no different in this regard to other parts of the UK and the world, its geography and new Parliament might suggest new solutions. This paper examines the roles and problems of the independent small shop before examining some of the solutions adopted in particular rural areas. A plea for a better understanding of such retail facilities is made.     

Geographical notes

An earlier reference to the term ‘social geography’ than those described by Dunbar (Scot. Geog. Mag., 93 (1977) 15–20) has been identified in a MS. by H. Gougeon dated 1873. The broader circumstances of the movement to reform geography teaching and the secondary school curriculum at the beginning of the IIIrd Republic are described as a necessary context for evaluating the Gougeon MS. An English translation of Gougeon's views of ‘social geography’ is provided, and although his outline provides no more than a sketch of the possible content of social geography several of the traditional topics of this sub‐field are readily recognizable.