THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE RAILROAD: ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE AND ITS PROJECTED FREIGHT FLOWS

The idea of building the Baykal-Amur Mainline, running through East Siberia to the north of, and parallel to, the Trans-Siberian Railroad, first arose in 1932. Initial surveys of an alignment were completed in 1944, and the western and eastern extremities of the BAM were completed by the early 1950s. Surveys along the BAM route resumed in 1967 with renewed interest in a railroad that would open up new Siberian resource sites for export through Pacific seaports. After completion of the BAM, scheduled for 1983, freight traffic will consist mainly of West Siberian crude oil moving to refineries and ports of the Soviet Far East (70 to 75 percent of freight movements in ton-kilometers) followed by timber (10 to 18 percent). Coking coal from southern Yakutia to the Pacific coast for export to Japan will also be significant freight item. Eastbound freight movements will greatly exceed westbound traffic. [A previous article on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975.]     

Developments in Russian Gas Production Since 1998: Russia's Evolving Gas Supply Strategy

An American geographer and prominent authority on the oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union reports on overall trends in Russia's natural gas production in the years following the country's ruble devaluation and financial crisis. The account—based on systematic in-country observations, discussions/interviews with industry executives, and a review of industry sources—focuses on factors affecting domestic supply and demand as well as export capacity (will Russia have enough gas to meet rising domestic demand while fulfilling its export obligations?), regional patterns of production (and performance of Gazprom regional production enterprises), obstacles to the use of associated gas derived from crude oil extraction, and major pipeline construction projects in West Siberia and the Russian Far East. The paper concludes by outlining CERA's forecast for Russian gas production to 2020, also disaggregated by region. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 7 figures, 8 tables, 51 references.     

THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

SOME DATA ON CHANGES IN TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY OF EAST SIBERIA AND THE SOVIET FAR EAST IN CONNECTION WITH CONSTRUCTION OF THE BAM

The impact of the Baikal-Amur Mainline on accessibility to resource sites in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East is measured. At the present time, a little more than one-half of the developed southern portion of the region lies within 200 km of the Trans-Siberian. As a result of the construction of the BAM, nearly 75 percent of the area will be within 200 km of the nearest railroad. The gains in distance to the nearest railroad are mapped, and show a maximum gain (of 420–450 km) in an area northeast of the northern tip of Lake Baikal. Although the BAM, because of difficult terrain, is still distinguished by a high coefficient of sinuosity (compared with the great-circle distance), it does represent a gain over the present distance from the Pacific coast to points west of Lake Baikal.     

Transport Development of the Middle Ob'oil District

Two basic alternative transport systems are analyzed for the new oil-producing district along the Middle Ob'valley in West Siberia. One is the construction of a railroad parallel to the Ob' River; the other is the use of the waterway itself. Comparative cost analysis suggests that the railroad would be economical only for very large traffic volumes, not expectable in the foreseeable future. By 1980–1985, expected freight flows may justify construction of the western section of the proposed railroad in the oil district itself. Instead of an eastward extension, the author advocates a continuation toward the rich gas and possibly oil prospects in the northern part of the West Siberian plain, and ultimately to Noril'sk. The paper was published before the Soviet Union announced, in early 1970, that the accelerated development of the oil district required construction of the western section of the Ob'valley railroad in the 1970s.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE AND THE INTEGRATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN REGIONS OF THE USSR

The construction of the BAM is viewed as serving two purposes: one, the development of new resource sites for export through Soviet Pacific ports, particularly to Japan; second, the accelerated development of new parts of East Siberia and the Far East, serving ultimately as a bridgehead for further advance toward the Northeast. Key resource areas to be given priority in development are the Neryungri coking-coal basin of South Yakutia, for export to Japan; the Udokan copper deposit, and the Molodezhnoye asbestos deposit. Because of the harsh environment, it is unlikely that any processing activities beyond mineral concentration and forest products industries will be located in the BAM zone, at least in the early stages of development. Food supply for the growing population will be largely dependent on hauls of bread and feed grains from southern portions of West Siberia and vegetables from as far away as Central Asia. Future territorial production complexes along the BAM are tentatively outlined.     

Observations on the Problematic Potential of Russian Oil and the Complexities of Siberia

An economic geographer and noted American observer of the Russian oil industry since the early 1970s examines the mid-term (15 to 20 years) sustainability of the current surge in oil production, particularly in light of the many complexities affecting the existing and potential petroleum resources of Siberia. Analysis and discussion cover the role of vertically integrated companies, the impact of geological and geographical constraints, the reserve pyramid, and significant aspects of the institutional and political environment, such as ownership, taxation, access to pipelines, export routes, and the role of foreign capital. Distinguishing West Siberia from the oil frontier of East Siberia and the Far East, the author argues that the present boom is not sustainable. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, O18. 1 figure, 2 tables, 83 references.     

THE PRESENT STATE AND TASKS OF COMPLEX MAPPING IN THE USSR

Recent developments in the Soviet Union's program of national thematic mapping and regional complex mapping are reviewed. A comprehensive mapping program along these lines, formulated in 1969 by GUGK, the government planning agency, has not been implemented. National thematic maps in the Soviet Union continue to be compiled by individual government agencies without coordination and without uniformity in legend and design, so that comparability is made difficult. The only thematic GUGK maps now being prepared are concerned with two long-term regional development programs in the Soviet Union–the rural development plan for the Nonchernozem zone of the European RSFSR and the construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railroad in the Soviet Far East. The need for a comprehensive and coordinated program of national thematic maps and regional atlases or map series is once again stressed in connection with economic planning and environmental problems, and a program of continuously updated regional atlases, based on digital data banks, is proposed. Suggestions are also made for the coordination of thematic maps at the international level.     

METHODS OF STUDYING THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF MARKET ZONES

The mean-field concept is used to derive an index μ that describes consumption conditions within a market zone by relating aggregate volumes of haul of a particular product to aggregate freight costs. The technique is illustrated in the case of the fuel-oil market zones of Soviet refineries. The highest values for μ, suggesting zones with optimal refinery locations, are found for the Novopolotsk refinery in Belorussia and the Kirishi refinery near Leningrad. The lowest values are found for the East Siberian refinery at Angarsk and the West Kazakhstan refinery at Gur'yev. The size of market zones tends to vary seasonally in some cases because the use of waterways in summer reduces the length of haul, thus raising the μ index for some refineries. The shape of fields of two interacting market zones will depend not only on the length of haul from producing centers but also on the μ index.     

The Role of Eastern Siberia in Solving Some of the Economic Problems of the Pacific Basin

The abundance of resources in the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, combined with the known scarcity of fuel and energy supplies and certain raw materials in the countries of the Pacific basin, suggests that the resources of the eastern regions of the Soviet Union, could, if properly developed, find a wide market in countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE SOVIET UNION

Analysis of spatial patterns of attained educational levels is helpful in understanding the cultural geography of an area, perhaps especially in the Soviet Union, with its many ethnic groups and stated aim of providing equality of education regardless of ethnicity or sex. The proportion of the population that had completed a higher education was mapped at oblast level from 1970 census data. High rates are found in certain urban areas, Estonia and Latvia, Georgia, and certain sparsely populated areas of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. There are regional patterns of disparity between male and female rates of completed higher education and between rural and urban rates, despite Soviet attempts to reduce these inequalities. The distribution of Soviet higher educational institutions conforms generally to the distribution of population, although access to higher education opportunities appears to be geographically limited in some regions. (Maps by Joann L. Krupa, George Mason University.)     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.     

Siberia at the Last Glacial Maximum: Environment and Archaeology

This article focuses on the presence of humans in Siberia and the Russian Far East at the coldest time of the Late Pleistocene, called the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and dated to c. 20,000–18,000 rcbp. Reconstruction of the LGM environment of Siberia, based on the latest models and compilations, provides a background for human existence in this region. Most of Siberia and the Russian Far East at c. 20,000–18,000 rcbp was covered by tundra and cool steppe, with some forest formations in the river valleys. Climate was much colder and drier than it is today. Eighteen Upper Paleolithic sites in Siberia are radiocarbon dated strictly to the LGM, and at least six of them, located in southern parts of western and eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, have solid evidence of occupation during that time span. It seems clear that southern Siberia was populated by humans even at the height of the LGM, and that there was no dramatic decline or complete disappearance of humans in Siberia at that time. The degree of human adaptation to periglacial landscapes in the mid-Upper Paleolithic of northern Eurasia was quite high; humans coped with the cold and dry environmental conditions using microblade technology, artificial shelters, tailored clothes, and megafaunal bones as fuel. An erratum to this article can be found at     

The Influence of Ethnic Factors on the Territorial Redistribution of Population

Although a number of non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union (Central Asia, Transcaucasia, Moldavia) are labor-surplus areas, ethnic factors operate against migration of these national groups not only to labor-deficit regions in the RSFSR but even to cities of the non-Russian republics. Instead, Russians make up most of the migrants to labor-deficit regions (European North, Siberia, Far East, Kazakhstan) and to the cities of non-Russian republics. A system of measures in proposed to correct the situation.     

Developments in Russia's Far East and their implications for the Pacific Basin

The Soviet Union ceased to exist as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality in December 1991 with the declaration of a new Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). For the present the territory formerly known as the Soviet Far East remains part of the Russian Republic controlled from Moscow, but its political and economic destiny remains uncertain. In 1986 Mikhail Gorbachev asserted that the USSR was an Asian-Pacific country and that the development of the Far East region was to be reinvigorated. This coincided with. and was closely related to, efforts designed to improve relations with several countries in the Pacific Basin, including Australia. This paper outlines some of the infrastructural, social and other obstacles to development that can only be overcome by financial and technological assistance from abroad. Lingering international tensions (such as the Kurile Islands dispute with Japan) and political, economic and administrative uncertainties within the Russian Republic and the CIS more generally have led private companies — including several in Australia — to defer their investment plans. It seems likely that it will be many years before the Russian Far East will have much impact on the economy of the Pacific Basin.     

Modern Geography and its Tasks in Siberia and the Soviet Far East

The director of the Institute of Geography of Siberia and the Far East, founded in 1959 in Irkutsk, discusses his philosophy of modern geography, outlines the table of organization of his institute, and lists the principal research problems in the geography of Siberia and the Far East, with particular reference to the study of the tayga, or boreal forest.     

The Role of River Transport in the Development and Location of Productive Forces in the Eastern Regions of the USSR

A basin-by-basin survey of water-borne freight movements in Siberia. The Ob'-Irtysh basin has gained in significance with the development of its oil and gas resources, and further expansion of water transport depends mainly on construction of additional cargo-handling facilities. In the Yenisey basin, the construction of large hydroelectric dams tends to provide an important deep-water route between Lake Baykal and the sea, but no ship locks are being provided in most of the dams. The importance of the Lena basin has been enhanced since 1951 by the construction of the Tayshet-Lena railroad, providing direct access to the upper Lena from the Trans-Siberian main line. Cargo destined for the north coast of Siberia now moves increasingly through the Lena basin instead of over the Northern Sea Route. The Amur River continues to play an important transport role (especially for lumber and coal movements) even though large segments of the stream are paralleled by the railroad.     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.