THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR IDENTIFYING RURAL PLACES WITH GROWTH PROSPECTS: (with particular reference to Kaliningrad Oblast)

One of the key objectives in the rural development program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR is the consolidation of rural settlement in larger places. An example of the dispersed settlement pattern is Kaliningrad Oblast, which has a total of 1,527 rural places ranging from fewer than 5 to more than 2,000 inhabitants, with a total rural population of 195,529 (1970 census). The author shows that growth prospects are dependent on a combination of five factors—geographical setting and level of development; population; fixed assets in agriculture; nonfarm fixed assets; availability of services—and, using correlation analysis, identifies 283 places with prospects of future growth, ranging from 32 in the 51–100 size class to one of more than 2,000 population. The preservation of some small rural places is termed inevitable because many serve as outlying settlements for livestock subdivisions of collective and state farms, and dairy and beef cattle represents a characteristic type of farming in Kaliningrad Oblast.     

Agrarian Transformation and the Distribution of Fixed Productive Assets in China

The distribution of fixed productive assets is more unequal than the distribution of land in rural China, but the two distributions to some degree offset each other because of economic specialization and the role of rural industrial and commercial enterprises. Surprisingly, the distribution of fixed productive assets has the most equalizing effect on the distribution of rural wealth. This is partly due to the mixed ownership patterns of assets. The households with the highest values of fixed productive assets are not particularly rich, and neither are assetless households particularly poor. The distribution of fixed assets is a key reason why the distribution of wealth in rural China is actually more equal than the distribution of income, a result which is most unusual for a developing country.     

A STRATEGY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SETTLEMENT BSf THE USSR; AIMS,PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

A General Program of Settlement in the USSR, worked out by the Central Urban Planning Institute, envisages a long-term evolution of settlement that would help ameliorate the quality of life, insure industrial development of small and middle-size towns and help protect the environment. Two alternative strategies are envisaged: (1) an extrapolative strategy that projects long-term trends on the basis of past experiences and would enhance agglomerative processes in Soviet settlement; (2) a normative, goal-directed strategy that would seek to foster the evolution of planned and regulated systems of interconnected urban and rural places, and would gradually transform the present agglomerations along the lines of such normative systems. The prospective distribution of settlement under both strategies is mapped. Under the extrapolative strategy, the urban population share in areas with agglomerated forms of settlement would reach nearly 70 percent over the forecast period compared with 44 percent in 1970. The normative, goal-directed strategy would yield 60 large interconnected urban-rural systems, centered on the country's largest cities and accounting for 53 percent of the total population; 170 middle-size systems, centered on moderately large cities and including 26 percent of the population; and 325 small systems, centered on small and middle-size towns and including 14 percent of the population. About 7 percent of the population would remain outside the systemic structure.     

Rural Settlement Trends in Moldavia

An analysis of changes in rural settlement in the Moldavian SSR for the period 1959–1968 finds a high degree of stability, with few places eliminated because of resettlement or consolidation, and few new places established. The total rural population continues to increase, despite a relative decline of the rural component in the entire population. Growth rates have been highest for large central settlements of state farms and collective farms, but outlying peripheral villages within farm territories have also been growing.     

西安城市化演进过程的多层面分析与趋势预测

西安城市化演进过程与生产力布局阶段性,具有一致性的规律。文章从城市化水平的变化时间序列、城市化水平提高与经济发展的关联性两个角度,定量分析了其演化特征,特别是与经济发展的关系及其规律性,指出西安市城市化的效率在各时期不断提升(结构弹性减小),集约化程度提高,城市化、非农化逐步走向合理。城市化水平整体滞后于经济发展水平,城市化与经济发展过程又可划分为五个阶段,城市化变化与人均增长满足指数规律,城镇密度与关系的模型满足直线关系。最后文章从人口迁移、人口密度变化、城市化圈层分布和卫星城镇的发展及分工等方面对人口城市化趋势进行了探讨。     

A TECHNIQUE FOR CLASSIFYING URBAN PLACES IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT REQUISITES (with particular reference to Smolensk Oblast)

On the basis of a number of socio-economic and physical requisites, the prospects of future development are examined for all 28 urban places of Smolensk Oblast as of early 1973. The requisites are the economic-geographic (transport) situation, availability of water resources, labor resources, economic base, industrial terrain and housing. The urban places are assigned point scales combining these factors and are assigned to three categories (with very favorable, favorable and unfavorable prospects of development). The allocation of places to particular development classes is then tested statistically by association with two additional variables: population size and functional characteristics, and the corrections introduced by the procedure are analyzed. The prospects for further development are found to be most favorable for the six largest towns—Smolensk, Roslavl', Vyaz'ma, Safonovo, Yartsevo and Gagarin. (The study was completed before the founding in 1973–74 of two new urban places that are associated with major power stations under construction and are thus endowed with growth prospects: Desnogorsk, on the site of the Smolensk nuclear power station, and Ozernyy, on the site of the Smolensk peat-fired power station.)     

不同模型在镇域空间相互作用中的应用与比较分析——以湖北省大冶市为例

镇域尺度的空间相互作用研究对促进城乡统筹和城镇体系规划具有重要意义。本文借鉴最新研究成果,从理论及实践层面对镇域空间相互作用研究进行了探索,提出一种基于空间可达性的辐射模型,并与传统重力模型进行比较分析。以大冶市16个乡镇为例进行实例研究,结果表明:1辐射模型与实测数据的相似度较高,可以更好地反映镇域空间相互作用的客观规律;2两种模拟方法在体现空间相互作用的方向性以及结构特征方面具有显著差异;3辐射模型中影响范围的引入以及空间可达性对区域异质性的体现是其与重力模型的主要区别。     

Urban-rural demographic contrasts in Highland Ecuador: town recession in a period of catastrophe 1778–1841

An investigation of three Andean towns in their regional setting forms the basis for an assessment of urban-rural demographic differences. The towns are found to have been ethnically distinct, with a larger proportion of whites than the mainly Indian rural areas. The urban populations also had a larger surplus of women, lower average marriage ages for women but lower proportions married, a higher illegitimacy rate and a slightly older age structure. Trends in urban districts differed from those in rural areas. The towns suffered major population losses, and their share of the regional population fell from nearly 10% in 1778 to around 5% in 1841. The factors affecting population trends are examined in order to identify those which had a differential urban-rural impact. Earthquake and warfare were of key significance. In a regional context of economic depression and population stagnation, these two catastrophes instigated a major urban recession. The three towns shared in the urban decline experienced in many parts of Latin America, but their recession was particularly pronounced owing to the impact of catastrophes.     

县域城镇化发展水平评价与对策

县级区域是我国最为基本的行政地域单元,是农村劳动力得以转移的主要载体。文章以统筹城乡发展的要求为指导,以江苏省沭阳县为典型案例,通过构建融人口、经济、社会文化、基础设施于一体的县域城镇化发展水平综合评价指标体系,采用熵值法和SPSS统计分析技术,从时空尺度视角对沭阳县城镇化发展水平进行了综合评估,并从加强中心镇建设、发展工业、人口控制、政策调整等方面提出了加快县域城镇化发展的对策。     

清代集镇名实初探

《清国史·地理志》、《清史稿·地理志》每县下均有某某镇的记录。经考察,认为这种记录并没有严格的学术标准,有一定的任意性。实际上,清代的镇,并非县以下一级管理地方或征收商税的机构。凡是有一定集中的人口,商业比较繁荣的聚落(集市),往往被人们称为镇。其中有的置有县以下管理地方治安的机构,如巡检司,有的什么设置也没有,仍被称镇;也有既设了巡检司等管理或纳税机构,然仍不称镇。可见清代文献中镇的记录并无严格标准。至于文献上记载镇的四至范围,实际上指的是所设机构管理(如巡检司)的地域范围,与镇并无关系。     

TECHNIQUES FOR INVESTIGATING THE ECONOMIC BASE OF CITIES

Economic-base analysis is applied to 15 small towns of Vologda Oblast in northern European Russia in an attempt to analyze the provision of services in these urban places. The employment structure of the town of Kadnikov, based on a “firm-by-firm” approach, is used as the standard to prorate total employment into basic and nonbasic components. The Kadnikov standard is then applied to the other towns and any excess in employment beyond the nonbasic Kadnikov standard is allocated to the basic sector. The higher proportion of basic employment in some of the study towns is interpreted as reflecting inadequate development of service activities. The analysis suggests that the small towns of Vologda Oblast are relatively well served by education, public health and retail trade-at any rate they are no worse off than the standard town, Kadnikov-but lag in the provision of housing and repair services. Economic-base concepts developed by J. W. Alexander and G. Alexandersson in the 1950s are used as a point of departure.     

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL NONFARM PLACES IN THE USSR

According to the 1970 census, the Soviet Union had 37,800 rural nonfarm places with a combined population of 6.1 million, or 5.8 percent of the rural population. The census data are believed to understate the number and population of nonfarm places because they assigned rural places to the nonfarm category purely on the basis of their generic designation. Many multifunctional nonfarm places and rural places that serve as administrative centers and have little relation to agriculture were not categorized as nonfarm in the census. Although many of the smaller nonfarm places are likely to be eliminated over time, others will continue to perform clearly defined functions in industry, construction, transportation, and services. The situation is illustrated with particular reference to Novosibirsk Oblast.     

The Social and Economic Performance of Australia's Large Regional Cities and Towns: Implications for Rural and Regional Policy

Australia's large regional cities and towns display wide variation in how they are adjusting to the socio‐economic transitions occurring in Australia. That variation is exposed using a multi‐variate model analysing performance on a range of socio‐economic variables over the decade 1986 to 1996 for 122 cities and towns with populations of 10 000 and above at the 1996 census. Those places are classified into seven clusters of community performance reflecting opportunity/vulnerability, and their spatial patterns are mapped. The resulting framework is then used to show how the recent geography of the socio‐economic performance of the large regional cities and towns has a distinctive selectivity and contributes to opportunity in some places and the vulnerable performance of others. The influence of that selectivity can be seen in the mismatched geographic patterns evident from an analysis of shares of national population and employment change, investment in non‐residential construction, levels of welfare dependency, and the ratio between household income tax generation and transfer benefits received. The paper uses the insights drawn from that analysis to pose questions suggesting the need to rethink national policy perspectives for addressing change in non‐metropolitan Australia.     

The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

山西古村镇类型及社会记忆符号系统研究

社会记忆是依附于社会群体产生的一种趋同性的社会文化符号。本研究利用结构主义符号学的分析方法,通过“要素体-因子层-属性脉”的三维层次构建社会记忆的符号系统,基于中国传统社会生产、生活方式的视角,从地脉、人脉、文脉的“三脉”属性对古村镇的类型及特征进行解读,发现：①“农”型古村镇社会记忆的宜农宜居、望族乡贤、天人合一的三脉属性符号特征明显;②“商”型古村镇具有对外通达的地脉记忆,精致讲究的文脉记忆和名商名士的人脉记忆;③“军”型古村镇的社会记忆在据险扼要、防御之上、将军传奇的三脉属性特征更加突出;④“工”型古村镇具有矿藏丰富、炉旺风顺、匠人传奇的特色社会记忆的符号特征。     

The Rayon Seats of the USSR in the System of Services

The administrative centers of rayons (county-type civil divisions) are viewed as key elements in the provision of services in the USSR. The effectiveness of rayon seats as service centers is analyzed in terms of the category of places serving as rayon seats (small cities; urban-type settlements [towns]; rural places), mean rayon population, area and radius, and the mean transport accessibility of the rayon center. The existence of a small city with a high level of services in a small rayon, as in the Baltic region, Belorussia, Moldavia and parts of the Ukraine, is viewed as optimal. Particular problems arise in Siberia and Kazakhstan, where the large size of rayons, low mean rayon population, big rayon radius and low transport accessibility combine to produce a low level of services. In such regions, a system of local service centers is advocated, with rayon seats performing the role of major regional centers.     

垦区城镇化综合发展水平测度与比较分析——以建三江为例

农垦区聚落系统的形成和发展基于区域开发初期建立起的国营农场体系,农垦区的城镇化不同于普通农区的城镇化,是一种特殊的城镇化类型,有其独特的科学问题和学术价值。本文以三江平原农垦区中心城镇建三江为研究对象,从佳木斯市、鸡西市、七台河市和牡丹江市选取具有代表性的五个普通农区城镇(即富锦、虎林、穆棱、汤原及勃利)作为对比样本,以反映农垦城镇人口、经济、社会和服务功能等多方面特征,构建评价指标体系,基于改进的熵值法测度城镇化综合发展水平。     

A REGIONALIZATION OF THE RURAL AREAS OF TAMBOV OBLAST BASED ON DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS

The notion of spatial development is defined as a relationship between two phenomena, in which the phenomenon that is being modified (the object of development) imposes constraints on the evolution of the modifier (the subject of development); the interaction achieves what was at first only potentially present in the object. The combination of a particular subject and object characterizes the intensity of the process of development (or the level of development). This conceptual approach is illustrated with particular reference to the development levels in the rural rayons of Tambov Oblast, where the output and fixed assets of agriculture are used as the subject of development, and the physical base and rural population as the objects. The interplay yields a number of types of development levels which have been mapped and interpreted in light of the history of settlement and the physical base of the area.     

An Analysis of “Economic Relief” in the Study of Industrial Nodes

The demographic potential and the demographic energy concepts developed by John Q. Stewart, the astronomer, are applied to an analysis of urban interaction in two industrial nodes in the oil-rich Tatar ASSR—the Bugul'ma-Al'met'yevsk node and the Nizhnekamsk node. The isolines of the demographic potential are mapped and compared with other isoline maps of the area showing the density of industrial enterprises (numbers per unit area), population density of urbanized areas, and the density of industrial fixed assets (value per unit area).     

Regional Planning Problems in the Soviet Far East

A variety of approaches are being recommended in regional plans for future settlements patterns in the Soviet Far East. In Magadan Oblast, the present scattered pattern of small populated places is to be superseded by greater concentration of urban population in a set of subregional service centers. In Khabarovsk Kray, different approaches are being recommended for the future development of the Khabarovsk and Komsomol'sk areas. Because limitation of the future growth of Khabarovsk is desirable, new industrial establishments are to be located in the future in nearby small towns and urban settlements of the Khabarovsk industrial district. In the Komsomol'sk area, satellite towns are to be significantly developed, giving rise to a grouped form of urban settlement, including the tin-mining center of Solnechnyy and the paper and chemical center of Amursk. In Amur Oblast, consideration is being given to the development of an iron and steel plant in the Svobodnyy area, giving rise to a city of up to 200,000 population.