Development and Evaluation of an Optimal Composite Estimator in Spatial Microsimulation Small Area Estimation

A range of data is of geographic interest but is not available at a small area level from existing data sources. Small area estimation (SAE) offers techniques to estimate population parameters of target variables to detailed scales based on relationships between those target variables and relevant auxiliary variables. The resulting indirect small area estimate can deliver a lower mean squared error compared to its direct survey estimate, given that variance can be reduced markedly even if bias increases. Spatial microsimulation SAE approaches are widely utilized but only beginning to engage with the potential of composite estimators that use a weighted combination of indirect and direct estimators to reduce further the mean squared error of the small area estimate compared to an indirect SAE estimator alone. This article advances these approaches by constructing for the first time in the microsimulation literature an optimal composite estimator for such SAE approaches in which the combining weight is calculated from the mean squared errors of the two estimators; thus, optimizing the reduction in MSE of the resulting small area estimates. This optimal composite estimator is demonstrated and evaluated in a model-based simulation study and application based on the real data.     

世界农村发展及其演变

本文探讨农村概念入手,较详细地阐述了农村发展的内涵和战后世界农村发展的演变过程。     

Interpartner Legitimacy Effects on Cluster Initiative Formation and Development Processes

In spite of the growing interest in cluster initiatives (CIs) as a means of regional development, there are still few studies of CIs that offer an inside perspective. This article takes such an inside perspective, focusing on the internal legitimacy aspects of the formation and evolving processes of CIs. We propose the inclusion of interpartner legitimacy effects in order to better understand the formation and development of CIs. A case study method is applied on a Swedish CI in the tourism industry. Faced with the situation that their region was lagging behind other Swedish regions in the development of tourism, the actors were spurred to promote a CI. Its central purposes were to consolidate the regional tourism industry, strengthen the regional brand and to establish the entire region as a single coherent destination. This paper contributes to the research body of regional development and CIs by showing how different types of interpartner legitimacies hinder and facilitate the CI process.     

农村基层政府治理变革的外部困境

改革开放的不断推进与市场经济的深入发展,客观上要求基层政府要进行与之相适应的各方面的治理变革。农村基层政府治理环境的剧烈变迁,使其治理变革陷入困境之中。这种困境主要表现在制度与非正式制度的双重规制、社会转型、政治化的转型这三个方面。     

Techniques for the Recreational Evaluation of an Area

Because of the problem of factor weights in any integral evaluation of landscapes for recreational purposes, a systems approach is proposed for classifying factors in terms of relative significance. Internal and external landscape structures are distinguished. Internal structure involves the organization of the landscape, including components and their natural interactions. External structure reflects the landscape system's relations with other systems, either adjacent landscapes or systems of human activities. For purposes of recreational evaluation, landscape elements must be differentiated into classes in terms of their impact on recreation: active elements, favoring particular recreational uses; limiting elements; compensatory elements. The state of recreational resources must also take account of current economic use of the land. Some types of economic uses combine more readily with recreational uses than others. The systems technique is illustrated with reference to the Moscow region and the Issyk-Kul' basin in Central Asia.     

Problems in the Methodology of Measuring and Mapping the Level of Economic Development of the USSR

Economic development levels in the USSR are measured and mapped on the basis of an aggregate of three density parameters: the value of plant and equipment; the value of gross output, and population numbers, all per unit area. Data on the value of plant and on gross output are not available below the oblast level, and in the case of small oblasts in Central Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia, economic development levels within oblasts have been assumed to be relatively uniform. Large oblasts, especially in Siberia, required a further breakdown within oblasts, and in such cases the value of plant and gross output were allocated in proportion to population density. Economic development levels were graded on an eight-interval scale, but no absolute values were given. A related attempt to measure and map economic productivity was made by A. F. Burghardt, in his paper on “Income density in the United States” (Annals Assoc. Amer. Geographers, Sept. 1972).     

Using Simulated Data to Examine the Determinants of Acute Hospital Demand at the Small Area Level

The aim of this article is to establish whether spatial variation exists in acute hospital utilization in Ireland and, if it does, to identify the microlevel factors influencing this variation. First, an alignment process is used to calibrate the acute inpatient attendance and nights spent in hospital variables produced by a spatial microsimulation model at both the national and the subnational levels. Comparing the results of the national and subnational alignment allows us to examine whether spatial variation exists. Second, after establishing that hospital utilization displays a significant spatial pattern, we use a nationally representative survey to determine which individual‐level factors significantly affect inpatient attendance and the number of nights spent in hospitals. Using the calibrated data from the aforementioned spatial microsimulation model, we examine whether the spatial patterns of those variables found to influence hospital utilization match the spatial pattern of actual hospital utilization rates at the small area, electoral division level. That is, are the individuals/areas with the highest demand for acute hospital services utilizing acute hospital services? Finally, the results of this research are discussed in relation to both the national and international literature. El objetivo de este artículo es determinar si existe variación espacial en la utilización aguda y urgente (acute) de hospitales en Irlanda, y de ser así, identificar los factores microeconómicos que influyen en esta variación. En primer lugar, se utiliza un proceso de alineación para calibrar las variables de concurrencia (asistencia) de pacientes hospitalizados con casos agudos y de noches de estancia en el hospital, producidas por un modelo microsimulación espacial, tanto para niveles nacionales como subnacionales. Comparar los resultados de alineación de los niveles nacionales y subnacionales nos permite examinar si existe variación espacial. En segundo lugar, después de establecer que la utilización de hospitales muestra un patrón espacial significativo, empleamos una encuesta (un censo) nacional representativa para determinar qué factores a nivel individual afectan significativamente la concurrencia de pacientes hospitalizados y el número de noches de estancia en los hospitales. Al usar los datos calibrados del ya mencionado modelo de microsimulación espacial, analizamos si los patrones espaciales de esas variables que influyen en la utilización de hospitales concuerdan con el patrón espacial de las tasas reales (existentes) de utilización hospitalaria al nivel de las áreas pequeñas de división electoral (DE). En otras palabras, ¿Son las/los individuos/áreas con la mayor demanda de casos agudos de servicios de hospitalización las/los que están utilizados los servicios de hospitalización aguda? Finalmente, los resultados de esta investigación se analizan (discuten) en relación a la literatura especializada nacional e internacional. 本文的研究目的在于通过建立模型以检验爱尔兰急症医院的利用是否存在空间分异。如果存在空间分异,则识别影响其空间分异的微观尺度的驱动因子。首先,在国家和地方两个尺度,通过空间微观模型对所要构建模型的求诊人数及他们花费的夜间数进行校正和调整,并通过对比国家与地方两个尺度的校准结果,来检验其是否存在空间分异。其次,通过建立的模型检验出急诊医院的利用具有显著的空间模式,利用一份具有全国代表性的调查以确定哪些个体层面因素显著影响着求诊人数与在医院花费的夜间数。利用上述空间微观模拟模型检测影响医院利用的那些变量的空间模式,与实际的医院利用率的空间模式在被划分的小区域尺度上是否匹配。也就是说,这些对急症医院服务具有最大需求的个体或区域是否真正实际在使用着这些服务。最后,将本文结果与国内和国际文献进行了相关探讨。.     

An Information-Theory Approach to the Partitioning of an Area

The problem of partitioning a territory can be formulated as the problem of constructing a hierarchy out of a set of subsets of a given system of objects. In terms of graph theory, a hierarchy may be defined as a connected directed graph that is both antisymmetric and nonreflexive. The hierarchy represents the result of the partitioning process. The actual process of partitioning can be treated as one in which information is gained about the system as a whole, but is also lost about individual objects as a result of aggregation. This enables us to apply the criteria of information theory to evaluate the quality of various partition schemes and to solve problems of functional and homogeneous regionalization.     

抗日时期的国民政府与西北开发

本以翔实、具体的第一手资料为基础,着重就国民政府开发西北的战略构想,举措与实绩,以及对西北地区社会经济的影响进行了探讨。全共分三大部分：第一部分旨在分析九一八事变前后西北地区战略地位的变化和国民政府开发西北战略构想的演变,认为整个开发过程经历了初步酝酿(1928—1931)、着手实施(1931—1937)、积极推进(1937—1945)三个阶段。第二部分主要选取交通水利建设、农业开发、工矿业发展诸领域,以丰富的事实和数据,展现国民政府从战时环境和需要出发,所采取的一系列政策、举措、办法,以及开发取得的成就。第三部分则从西北地区农业的进步和工业近代化程度的提高、商贸事业的发展和繁荣、东西部经济化交流与合作的扩大,分析了国民政府开发西北活动的影响。论指出,作为策划和组织的国民政府,为西北开发做出了积极的努力,发挥了相当的作用,其成果不仅为打破日本的经济封锁、支持长期抗战、争取抗战胜利做出了贡献,而且为改变西北的落后面貌奠定了初步的必要的基础。但国民政府在西北开发中存在着诸多缺陷、不足和问题,特别是其开发的主旨是直接为战争服务的,起决定作用的是军事上的需要而不是该地区的全面而长远的发展。因此,随着抗日战争的胜利,国民政府开发西北的热情遽减,各种开发、建设工作也停顿了下来,最终导致西北地区的社会经济再次陷入低谷。     

Tibetan-Inhabited Area in Deqen in Development

Deqen, honored as “Shangri La”,is located in the area where three rivers meet to form one in the Henduan Mountains straddling the borders of Yunnan, Sichuan and Tibet. The Deqen Tibetan Ethnic Group Autonomous Prefecture, founded in September 1957, is the only Tibetan autonomous prefecture in Yunnan Province but one of 10 in the     

民和三川地区旅游开发之探讨

一、民和三川地区旅游业发展条件1.全省最为优越的自然地理条件三川地区位于民和回族土族自治县南面,这里是一个呈东西长约20余公里,宽4～8公里狭长形展布的盆地地形,称之为官亭盆地。整个区域包括官亭镇、中川乡全境,还包括杏     

我国图们江地区开发的动态趋向及其图形演示

文章以图文结合的方式演示了我国图们江地区开发的动态趋向,揭示了该地区在未来开发过程中作为国际物流中心及交通枢纽的作用,以及地区产业开发的空间过程,进而提出了未来地区人口分布与城镇体系建设的初步设想。     

Regional Strategies for Renewable Energies: Development Processes in Greater Manchester

Making the transition to renewable, low-carbon forms of energy could be the defining question of our times. Especially for complex problems such as energy supply the regional scale and new forms of control, coordination and cooperation—subsumed under the term regional governance—are widely discussed both in politics (e.g. G8 conferences, Climate Summits, etc.) and academia. The turn from conventional to renewable energies is one major topic of discussion. For this process of change, regional governance can be seen as the best way to initiate it. With the help of a case study conducted in Greater Manchester, UK, this article concentrates on two points: (1) the development of regional governance arrangements in the light of a low-carbon agenda as mixture of path-dependent bottom-up and top-down approaches and (2) the impacts of specific constellations and environments for regional energy development that include institutional rules, strategic behaviour of actors and strategic discourses. This article shows that the integration of a regional governance structure into the strategic development process can achieve a substantial qualitative improvement for the development of a regional energy strategy.     

试析红河地区传统交通的兴起与发展

红河地区的交通开发具有悠久的历史。以近代新式交通工具——铁路的出现为分界,以前的交通可以笼统概括为传统交通。红河水运和马帮运输是红河地区交通发展的两个重要组成部分,在近代新式交通出现以前,红河水运和马帮运输互相配合,成为沟通红河地区城乡间的主要交通运输方式。随着驿传制度而形成的驿道,也成为红河地区内部联系与交流的纽带。     

我国旅游业研发总体水平、区域分布与政策建议

本文利用文献法和定量分析等方法,深入分析了我国旅游业技术和研发现状。针对我国旅游业研发总体水平低,研发能力集中于发达地区等问题,从观念、政府、机构、人才等方面提出了具体政策建议。     

论自然环境对河洛地区史前文化发展的影响

自然环境是人类赖以生存的物质基础.人类社会的发展在一定程度上受自然地理环境的制约,同时气候条件也会对社会的发展产生较大影响.自然环境对人类文化形成与发展的制约作用,时代愈早表现得愈明显.河洛地区史前文化的形成与发展以及不同考古学文化生产和生活方式的异同,与自然环境有着密切的关系.人类只有适应自然、按自然规律办事,才能够去改造自然,并在一定程度上战胜自然,从而使人类文化持续地向前发展.     

Desertification Processes and the Search for Solutions

Abstract

This paper reviews the evidence of desertification as reported in the scientific literature by ecologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, archeologists and various other disciplines. There is not as yet full agreement as to the extent and causes of this phenomenon. World wide climatic changes have been cited as causative factors, but the influence of man is still considered by most investigators as the dominant cause, possibly exacerbating cyclic climatic changes. Deserts, semi-arid and marginally productive areas vary greatly in extent and for different reasons.

Results of research and development have indicated that the enlightened intercession of man can contain and reverse this process. Sound management and conservation of existing land and water resources seem to be the basic needs and are perhaps the easiest technology to transfer to the desert farmer and nomad. The introduction of drought-hardy tree and bushes of economic value to bind drifting sand dunes and to regenerate overgrazed pastures have also proven their value. Recent research has shown the possibility for better utilization of water resources including brackish water for irrigation of agricultural crops.

Many other fields of technology are being applied to this problem, but the major focus will undoubtedly have to be on man himself and there has been some research on social organization, nomadism and sedentarization, technology transfer, population control, directions of education and a host of similar problems. Much more work will have to be channelled into this direction, however, if real progress is to be attained.     

古代红河地区的交通开发与中越贸易

古代红河地区经济相对落后,交通开发成为制约经济发展的重要因素。红河地区与越南相邻,为了发挥这一空间优势,历代统治者积极开发边境交通,加强与越南的对外贸易。尤其是元明清时期,是中越交通开发及贸易的重要时期,为近现代中越贸易迅速发展创造了条件。     

大力提高干部素质积极服务西部开发

西部大开发对干部素质提出了新的要求。西部地区的干部,既有艰苦奋斗等方面的优良素质,同时又有一些不适应的方面,目前要着重强化五种素质,为此,党校要发挥重要作用。     

Analyzing the Relationship Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease at the Small Area Level: A Bayesian Approach to Spatial Modeling

We model the relationship between coronary heart disease and smoking prevalence and deprivation at the small area level using the Poisson log-linear model with and without random effects. Extra-Poisson variability (overdispersion) is handled through the addition of spatially structured and unstructured random effects in a Bayesian framework. In addition, four different measures of smoking prevalence are assessed because the smoking data are obtained from a survey that resulted in quite large differences in the size of the sample across the census tracts. Two of the methods use Bayes adjustments of standardized smoking ratios (local and global adjustments), and one uses a nonparametric spatial averaging technique. A preferred model is identified based on the deviance information criterion. Both smoking and deprivation are found to be statistically significant risk factors, but the effect of the smoking variable is reduced once the confounding effects of deprivation are taken into account. Maps of the spatial variability in relative risk, and the importance of the underlying covariates and random effects terms, are produced. We also identify areas with excess relative risk.