Confronting Out-Migration and the Skills Gap in Declining German Cities

High-skilled groups are regarded as a key asset for economic growth and urban development and are thus increasingly targeted by cities. Within this context, the paper analyses the effects of urban decline and intra-national migration trends on cities. The impact of both processes on population development varies considerably between cities and regions and calls for micro- and macro-level policy responses. The contribution focuses on the local impact of the (out-)migration of higher-skilled groups and addresses the research questions: how do local stakeholders and decision-makers evaluate the consequences of the out-migration of highly qualified residents and how are they responding? Our analysis combines the findings of two research projects and draws mainly on qualitative data. The case studies are located in Germany and comprise three medium-sized cities outside of major agglomerations and three large cities within metropolitan areas. The six cities share the common characteristic of urban decline as a result of structural change and have been experiencing population decline. While medium-sized cities lose the highly skilled after they complete schooling, larger old industrial cities lose them after they complete higher education degrees. The paper discusses the implications of intra-national migration for these cities.     

Quantitative Regularities in the Urbanization of the USSR

Simple arithmetical formulas are proposed for the study and analysis of urbanization processes. The formulas establish functional relationships between the urbanization level at the beginning of a particular study period, the changes in urban and rural population during the period, and the urbanization level at the end of the period. The relative share of administrative centers and of other urban places in a particular major civil division in total urban population is also considered. Different types of urbanization processes are discussed and plotted on a graphic-analytical model (nomogram). Contrary to general assumption, it is found that in the USSR it is not the very large cities (500,000 and over) that are increasingly concentrating urban population, but the next lowest size class (100,000–500,000). Further research into urbanization processes in particular spatial settlement systems is urged.     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

URBANIZATION IN THE USSR: PROBLEMS OF SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION

The process of formation of settlement systems “in the USSR is conceptualized as proceeding at eight levels of a hierarchy corresponding to the system of economic regions, from a national system down to rayon-level systems. An important element in the present process of urbanization is the formation of urban agglomerations. The fact that these urban entities still lack juridical or even statistical status deprives urban and economic planners of a valuable data base for planning purposes so that the agglomerations often evolve in undesirable, uncoordinated ways. Greater attention needs to be given to the study of the internal structure of urban entities, a field neglected by Soviet population geographers. An undesirable tendency in Soviet agglomerations is to aim at continuously built-up territory, thus converting agglomerations into traditional compact cities, instead of making provision for open spaces for use in agriculture and forestry, recreation and communications.     

基于居民出行大数据的我国都市圈识别及其分布格局

都市圈是大城市发展到一定阶段的产物,当前都市圈空间范围界定还存在争议,本文梳理了都市圈的概念和内涵,采用手机信令出行数据识别了全国都市圈的空间分布格局。分析发现,我国大部分都市圈仍处于发育阶段,当出行率阈值为 1% 时全国识别出 27个都市圈。都市圈的分布格局与经济发展水平密切相关,经济发达地区的都市圈数量多、分布密集,如东部沿海和城市群地区。中心城市的人口和经济规模,以及圈域出行距离影响了都市圈的空间范围和圈内联系程度,圈域出行规模与中心城市人口规模呈正相关,外围城市向中心城市的出行率与中心城市经济首位度呈正相关,且符合距离衰减规律。     

中国城市化水平的综合判断

在测度和评价城市化水平高低时应该对人口城市化水平和城市人口绝对规模进行综合判断。学界通常用市区非农业人口口径来计算城市化水平,对城市外来人口考虑不够。对这种偏小的口径进行修正后发现中国的城市化水平至多略低于同等收入下的国际城市化水平。从城市人口与城市经济的适应程度看,中国的城市劳动生产率与发展状况类似的国家相比有偏低的倾向。因此,与流行的看法相反,中国的城市化水平与经济发展相适应的。笔者认为中国城市的存量部分已经"人满为患",未来城市化的着力点应是城市的增量部分,包括现有城市规模的扩大和新城市的设置。应进行户籍制度、土地制度、创业制度等制度创新,为城市发展提供宽松的外部环境。     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

城市群对外服务功能量化解析——以山东半岛、中原和关中三城市群为例

城市流强度描述了城市对外联系的强弱。是表征城市对外服务功能的量化指标。三个省份的实证检验明显地揭示出城市流与城市中心性具有特别强的相关性。本文以山东半岛、中原和关中城市群为研究区域,通过城市流强度的计算与结构的分析,从城市流视角探讨城市群发展演化机理,揭示出城市群空间结构由简单的单核心结构到复杂的多核心结构的演化过程。文章根据城市流大小和及其产业分布情况,分析了城市群及其中心城市的二、三产业城市流强度与结构,得出城市群整体的对外服务特征,并据此提出改善和提高城市对外服务功能的措施。     

关中、中原、山东半岛三城市群产业结构与分工的比较研究

采用区位商、相对专业化指数和相对多样化指数等指标定量分析了关中、中原、山东半岛三城市群的产业结构、专门化和多样化,并考察了它们与城市群发展之间的关系。通过指标计算与回归分析发现,目前三城市群总体上,相对全国而言的偏高的产业专门化和偏低的多样化,不利于城市群的发育;沿海和内地城市群的产业在发展动力方面存在着差异,沿海对产业多样化较敏感,而内陆则不显著;产业专门化不利于城市群发展,而多样化对城市群发展有一定的正向作用,但短期内作用并不明显。     

联系与竞合：粤港澳大湾区城市群旅游共生空间若干问题研究

首次从旅游领域将共生理论分析框架应用到城市间空间相互作用中,对城市群旅游共生进行理论分析。通过引力模型、欧氏距离模型和共生系统分类法,探讨粤港澳大湾区城市群旅游共生空间的若干问题。研究表明：城市群旅游共生组织模式基本处于由间歇共生向连续共生的正向演化阶段,空间呈现“2+3+4+2”城市群旅游共生层级体系,形成了三大旅游共生城市组团。城市群旅游共生行为模式大都处于由竞争共生向互惠共生的正向演化阶段,港澳广莞和佛惠中分别为主要互补与竞争节点,出现正向、稳定、逆向、往复、随机无序等五种演化路径分异。城市群旅游共生系统表现为初级旅游共生关系单一且稳定,中级旅游共生关系混沌且随机,高级旅游共生关系分异且稳定的规律。     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

长江中游城市群空间结构的经济绩效影响研究

近年来,城市群成为我国新型城镇化的空间主体,研究城市群空间结构具有重要意义。但现有文献大多从人口维度对城市群空间结构进行分析,缺乏多维视角,其结论的参考价值有限。本文以长江中游城市群为研究对象,运用2006-2015年长江中游城市群内部三大城市群的面板数据,通过位序规模法则以及空间基尼系数,从人口与产业两方面对城市群空间结构进行测度,并进一步研究了城市群空间结构对其经济绩效的影响。结果表明,在控制了其他影响因素之后,人口呈多中心分布,产业呈单中心分布对长江中游城市群的经济绩效有显著的促进作用;资本投入、基础设施建设、政府干预、产业结构和人口规模均是影响长江中游城市群经济绩效的关键因素。未来长江中游城市群可运用人口引导产业流动,以推进多中心的发展进程。     

中国城市职能结构的特征研究

本文利用1999年的城市数据库和纳尔逊分类方法分析了我国城市职能的基本特征,对各行业的就业频率分布曲线进行了分析,并比较了不同城市规模、不同地域城市职能差异,认为我国城市工业职能较强,就业比重较大;城市工业专业分工程度较低;我国城市职能随城市规模变化出现一定变化规律,建筑业比重随城市规模的增大而减小,科教文卫等服务业随着规模的增大而增大;我国城市职能结构表现在空间上的差异是东部城市工业职能较强,西部城市行政、科教等服务业就业比重较高。     

我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角

当前,世界上一些城市的收缩现象逐渐得到关注,但是我国城市是否呈现收缩现象,以及城市收缩的空间特征和主导因素等仍缺乏系统的分析。基于此,基于地级市尺度的人口、劳动力、经济、空间扩张和财政状况等数据,建立综合评价体系测度城市收缩现象,并建立回归模型理解城市收缩的影响因素。研究发现,我国一些城市开始呈现收缩,而东北、中部等城市比较明显。在影响因素上,劳动力、经济增长和就业规模有助于促进城市增长,而空间扩张、失业和财政收支状况等会加剧城市收缩。应谨慎判别不同城市收缩的特征和影响因素,强化复兴导向的城市化策略。     

中国城市群发育与规划适配性的时空演变研究

以中国19个城市群及全国296个地级以上城市为研究对象,通过收集2010—2019年中3个年份的相关数据,基于辐射场强模型,在识别城市群发育格局的基础上,将城市群发育情况与政府部门出台的城市群规划进行比较,归纳城市群发育与规划之间适配性的现状及时空演变规律。结果表明：2010—2019年,城市结节性指数具有与行政级别关系密切的梯度特征,少数国家级、区域级城市群在规划期内辐射扩散效果一般;总体来看,城市群发育与规划的适配性呈“东—中—西”依次减弱的空间格局,城市群发育范围虽呈扩张态势,但规划的城市群中仅有9个城市群被识别出来,其余规划的城市群仍不足以成为城市群;具体来看,区域差异明显的问题仍旧突出,识别出的城市群适配性虽逐年增强,但城市群核心城市发展、城市群发育等级、范围内城市数量等方面与城市群规划的适配性较差,具有参差不齐的特征。     

中国城市蔓延时空动态识别及驱动因素探测

城市蔓延已成为全球性的热点问题。基于2000-2017年夜间灯光数据和LandScan人口分布数据,以中国343个地级及以上城市为研究单元,利用能够细分城市内部密度差异的蔓延度指标测度城市蔓延状况,并运用趋势分析、探索性时空数据分析技术（ESTDA）和地理探测器等方法,分析中国城市蔓延变化趋势及时空格局,探究影响城市蔓延的驱动因素。结果表明：①2000-2017年,中国城市蔓延整体表现为中高度蔓延,在空间分布上,蔓延度呈现西北高、东南低的空间格局。②18年间,47%的城市其蔓延度基本保持不变,位于省际交界处的城市其蔓延度呈现增大的趋势,而少数省会城市或区域中心城市的蔓延度则呈现减小的趋势。③蔓延度的局部空间稳定性自东南地区向西北、东北地区递减。蔓延度存在较强的空间依赖性,且城市数量由低LISA弯曲度到高弯曲度大致呈现金字塔结构,79%的城市其蔓延度的波动性较弱;蔓延度没有出现明显的时空跃迁,空间凝聚性较强,空间格局较为稳定,存在一定的转移惰性。④第三产业产值、GRP和房地产开发投资额是影响中国城市蔓延的最主要因素。     

北部湾城镇群空间结构及其扩张规律研究

空间结构是优化城镇群地域功能的基础。根据新型城镇化和空间结构理论,用地统计、反距离权重等空间分析方法,研究广西北部湾城镇群空间结构分异规律得出：(1)北部湾城镇群以南宁市为中心向周边呈“核心—边缘”分异格局,时空集聚性和差异性渐趋扩大。(2)大城市空间聚集和结构分异不断增大,社会、经济要素空间扩张显著快于人口、土地要素,对外贸易和吸引投资是空间扩张的核心动力,非农化增长也是重要驱动。(3)城区面积与空间结构关系最密切,但投资、贸易、GDP、非农化扩张较快,人口、土地要素空间扩张显著滞后,各要素向大城市集聚的趋势显著,结构分异趋向扩大;绝大部分属于外贸、投资扩张型城镇。应强化南宁市集聚规模,提升工业化水平,扩大区内外合作,全面融入“一带一路”和大湾区新格局。     

基于分形理论的长株潭城市群等级规模结构研究及对策

运用城市群等级规模结构分形理论和方法,对长株潭"3+5"城市群(以下简称"3+5"城市群)的等级规模结构进行了实证研究,通过测算几年来"3+5"城市群等级规模分布的分维值,得出结论:"3+5"城市群规模分布符合分形特征;模型拟合认为其人口、经济分布的分维值均大于1,表明"3+5"城市群等级规模结构集中,已处于发展的相对成熟阶段。为此在对这些特征做出解释的基础上,认为可从强化首位城市、加快长株潭一体化建设、提升次中心城市、重点发展中小城市、加快小城镇建设等方面着手对长株潭城市群等级规模结构进行优化。