RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS IN AFRICA: SOME LESSONS FROM WESTERN NIGERIA

I n an analysis of regional problems within Africa, the frequent imbalance between the geographic distribution of resources and of population suggests that rural development and resettlement will play an increasingly important role in mobilizing the continent's latent resource base. With the almost universally increasing rates of population growth in Africa, pressure for redistribution of people is increasing, most of which manifests itself in accelerating rates of urbanization. But it is also apparent that developing urban areas can only effectively absorb a small proportion of maldistributed population. Therefore national planning programs are increasingly focusing upon the need to reconstruct or to reorientate the economic milieu of rural areas, as is demonstrated by increasing investment in rural development and settlement schemes.     

Sumatran population changes, 1961–80

In the period 1961 and 1980, Sumatra's population increased from nearly 16 to 28 million; a rise of 78%. This population growth was at least 50% faster than the Indonesia national average, and exceeded only by Maluku. Local and intensive demographic and economic analysis is needed to explain fully this rapid demographic increase. Sumatra's abundant resources of tin, bauxite, petroleum, natural gas, forest and agricultural products during the 1960s and 1970s supported these population increases, as well as providing export income to aid other Indonesian areas.

The chief population changes within Sumatra are:

1. Rapid percentage population growth in Lampung, Jambi, Bengkulu, and Riau provinces. However, population numbers increased most in North Sumatra, Lampung, and South Sumatra.

2. At the more detailed, kabupaten scale, Sumatra's 1961–80 population growth was very uneven, ranging from nearly 229% in central Lampung, over 97% in eight other kabupaten, to as little as 21.8% around Lake Toba in upland North Sumatra. Actual or perceived economic opportunities, sizeable migration flows, and high natural increases favoured some areas; resulted in outmigration flows from others.

3. The nineteen municipalities (only seventeen according to some sources for 1961) rose to twenty kotamadya by the mid‐1960s. Collectively, their urban populations increased from less than 2 million in 1961 to 4.25 million in 1980. Medan, in particular, now is the dominant city not only of Sumatra, but also of all Indonesia beyond Java‐Madura. Only Sawahlunto in upland West Sumatra remained almost stagnant through this period.

4. Population densities rose throughout Sumatra, but at greatly different rates. At the kabupaten scale at least seven areas of relatively high population density, plus a few localized urban‐ or resource‐centred areas elswhere, stood out from other, much less densely populated areas.

     

CHANGES IN THE METROPOLITAN AND LARGE CITY POPULATIONS OF THE USSR: 1979-85

This paper investigates the post-census growth of metropolitan areas and large cities in the USSR from 1979 to 1985. The Soviet population continues to be increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas and large cities, and although suburbanization occurs within metropolitan areas, a striking feature is that all central cities continue to grow and typically contain the vast majority of the metropolitan population. This reflects the fact that individual large cities continue to loom large, despite policies to limit their growth. Although the growth rates of large cities have slowed, so have those of smaller towns, and a merging of growth rates by size class is occurring.     

INEQUALITY IN CITIES*

ABSTRACT Much of the inequality literature has focused on national inequality, but local inequality is also important. Crime rates are higher in more unequal cities; people in unequal cities are more likely to say that they are unhappy. There is a negative association between local inequality and the growth of city‐level income and population, once we control for the initial distribution of skills. High levels of mobility across cities mean that city‐level inequality should not be studied with the same analytical tools used to understand national inequality, and policy approaches need to reflect the urban context. Urban inequality reflects the choices of more and less skilled people to live together in particular areas. City‐level skill inequality can explain about one‐third of the variation in city‐level income inequality, while skill inequality is itself explained by historical schooling patterns and immigration. Local income also reflects the substantial differences in the returns to skill across, which are related to local industrial patterns.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

内蒙古小城镇可持续发展的问题与对策

九五"以来,内蒙古小城镇建设进入了快速发展时期,但仍存在着数量少、规模小、质量低、基础弱,必需型资源短缺,二、三产业发展迟缓,土地集约利用程度较低,规划与建设缺乏科学性,政策体制与管理方式不能适应发展需要等诸多问题与制约因素。为此,本文提出科学规划、优化资源配置、调整产业结构、改革户籍制度、加强城镇基础设施建设等加快内蒙古小城镇可持续发展的对策与措施。     

The late F. P. Pullar

In Rhodesia, as in many other countries of the Third World, rapid population growth aggravates development problems and compounds them with others of its own making. Problems are greatest in the African rural areas but prospects for development there are generally poor. Growth within the monetary sector as presently constituted can provide no more than a palliative. A new national strategy for development is required and this must be based on a comprehensive population policy.     

The Dynamics of Growth in a Regional Urban System: Southern Ontario, 1851–1971

This study has four objectives: (1) to describe the dynamics of growth in the urban system of southern Ontario over the period from 1851 to 1971; (2) to determine whether this system has evolved in accordance with the Gibrat process of growth; (3) to contribute to the debate on the relationship between city-size distributions and economic development; and (4) to offer some technical and definitional suggestions with regard to the rank-size rule, urban primacy, and the measurement of population concentration. Related Canadian studies covering similar time periods are those of Simmons (1974), who has analysed the growth of larger cities (10,000 and over) at the national scale, and Bannister (1975), who has described the extent of spatial autocorrelation in the growth rates of southern Ontario's incorporated centres. Like Simmons and Bannister we are less concerned with the fortunes of particular places than with the response of the urban system as a whole to expansionary forces. We are centrally concerned with the phenomenon of differential growth (Borchert, 1967; Ward, 1971, pp. 11–49; Muller, 1976, 1977). The fact that towns grow at different rates implies changes in the frequency distribution of city size and in the level of concentration of the urban population. These changes, in turn, have interesting consequences for urban systems theory.     

Nation and reproduction: immigrants and their children in population discourse in Italy

Italian society is undergoing significant demographic changes: on one hand, the widespread decrease in birth rates and extended life expectancies lead to a substantial aging of the population; on the other hand, rising immigration rates constitute an important factor behind the renewal and growth of young population segments. According to conventional disciplinary divisions, such changes are the established domain of demography; however, it mainly draws on ethno‐national categories to investigate them. In reference to the Italian context, this article specifically highlights the way national demography employs forecasts and value judgments derived from a qualitative and selective definition of population to address the marked increase in children born to foreign parents. By examining the reproductive behaviours of migrants in Italy, the article thus offers a wide‐ranging reflection on the social boundaries that shape the formation of an ‘other’ generation.     

An empirical analysis of the effects of consanguineous marriages on economic development

In this study, development experiences toward economic development are investigated to provide an alternative analysis of economic development, human capital, and genetic inheritance in the light of consanguineous marriages. The countries analyzed in the study are discussed in accordance with consanguineous marriage practices and classified by their per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. A broad range of countries are analyzed in the study. Arab countries that experienced high rates of growth in their gross national income during the twentieth century but failed to fulfill adequate development measures as reflected in the growth in national income, countries undergoing transition from tight government regulation to free market democracy, and African nations that have experienced complications in the process of development show important differences in the process of economic development. It is shown that the countries that have reached high average development within the context of per capita GDP have overcome problems integral to consanguineous marriage.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

基于夜间灯光数据的中国土地城镇化水平时空动态

基于长时间序列夜间灯光遥感数据,本研究从国家、八大经济区、省、地等四个尺度综合分析了中国1992-2010年土地城镇化水平时空动态特征。结果表明,在1992-2010年间:中国土地城镇化水平增长迅速,年均增长率为8.34%,明显高于同时期人口城镇化水平增长速度;土地城镇化水平区域差异十分显著,东部沿海经济区在八大经济区中土地城镇化水平最高且增长速度最快,香港、澳门特别行政区土地城镇化水平远高于其它省区;土地城镇化的热点区域主要集中分布于长三角、山东半岛、海峡西岸等11个城市群地区。     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

DYNAMICS OF POPULATION IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR (1959-1984)

Analysis of change in the spatial distribution of population in the Ukrainian SSR demonstrates a pronounced shift toward the east and south, and toward the major metropolitan area of Kiev and Kiev Oblast. An upsurge in city growth in the least urbanized, western Ukraine, coupled with steady, above-average urban growth in other locations, has contributed to gradual erosion of the Donets-Dnieper Region's dominance in urban population. Accelerated rates of rural population decline in western areas of highest rural population concentration has promoted a gradual equalization of the distribution of rural population (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

Population Suburbanization in American Metropolitan Areas, 1940–1970

Using census tract data, this paper shows that massive changes have occurred in density patterns of American metropolitan areas since 1950. Suburbanization of population has involved both large-scale decongestion of central parts of metropolitan areas and also large-scale outward deconcentration. Many metropolitan areas no longer have clearly distinguishable density patterns in their central and peripheral parts. At the present time, patterns of population distribution across metropolitan areas are becoming increasingly similar. Furthermore, current suburbanization patterns by census tract do not relate strongly to suburbanization patterns as measured by growth rates of crude central city and suburban rings in metropolitan areas. Finally, the paper shows that “density craters” in the center of many metropolitan areas may become more pronounced, although they may not extend outward.     

DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN SINGAPORE

Singapore's labour force participation rates are at high levels. Age-specific rates, especially of men, have approached those of developed countries. The current very low total fertility rate of 1.25 would have major implications for Singapore's labour supply and economy in a closed population. Multi-pronged approaches such as measures to increase fertility, increase labour force participation, and to augment the local workforce with migrants are discussed. In the context of Singapore's physical land constraint, continued growth in the labour force in the long term would be challenging. Future gross domestic product growth is likely to be more sustainable via labour productivity growth. Identifying new niche areas of growth and having a nimble and quality workforce would become more important than labour force growth.     

Recent differential population growth in Sumatra: 1961–71

Sumatran population growth and influences

Sumatra, Indonesia's large western Outer Island region, had general, urban and rural rates of population growth during 1961–71 as much as 50% or higher than those for the remainder of Indonesia. The rapid population growth in Sumatra, continuing into the later 1970s, has been associated with a variety of influences. Among these were:

1. New or improved economic activities encompassing large‐scale extraction of crude oil, natural gas, tin, bauxite, and forest products; some coal mining; continued fisheries, commercial small‐holder and estate types of agriculture; and new or expanded manufacturing.

2. Large‐scale transmigration, in‐migration from elsewhere in Indonesia other than Java and Bali, and intramigration within Sumatra have led to increased populations and densities in at least five major areas. The southern area of Lampung Province and to a lesser extent eastern South Sumatra have had notable growth from transmigration flows; several coastal plains areas in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi provinces, from upland to lowland or other in‐ and intra‐migration flows.

3. Traditional ethnic, religious, and regional linkages within a predominantly rural village system have remained strong. These cultural conditions provide a background for understanding the continuing overwhelming rural character of Sumatra's people.

4. Although urban growth was more rapid than rural growth in Sumatra during 1961–71, most of this urban growth was concentrated in and around a few relatively large urban centres; the remainder of the urban growth was in the many other urban places, most having the aspect of overgrown villages.

5. Differential growth rates for total, rural, and urban populations were associated with differing perceptions at local, provincial, Sumatra‐wide, or national levels — of the areas having the best opportunities for improved living. With a few exceptions, Sumatra's upland areas have lost large numbers of people to near‐by and only recently highly accessible lowlands. Small, but crucially important, numbers of ambitious and more highly educated people have left Sumatra for Jakarta or other areas of actual and perceived greater economic opportunity.

6. In 1971 the sharply contrasting and increasing population densities of Sumatra emphasized several areas of greater economic development on the one hand; areas of continued limited accessibility or economic activities oil the other. If trends of the 1961–71 decade persist, the 1981 Indonesian census results for Sumatra should indicate increased populations and densities, particularly in the southern Lampung area of agricultural inflow and in the lowlands around Sumatra's large cities which also should continue to have sizeable population increases.